
Typhoon Tip
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Everything posted by Typhoon Tip
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the gfs just does this, i swear. it puts out one run from like 12 days in advance that's balls on perfect, then spends the next 60 model run cycles raging in ocd to engineer every plausible f'n alternate universe that can exist in a reality constructed by the quantum uncertainty principle instead of the original.
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yeah .. full disclosure, i know this thread was mainly "experimental" - and it was ... but, about mid way since i was admittedly more thinking something other than complete bullshit for this effort, too - thing is, we all know the index numerology/projections therein are made more useful by then looking at the spatial aspects of the super synopsis. hugely important to this latter facet, understanding/detecting subtle trends. one of which has been this Auschwitzian dental exam of a western ridge - never seen a +2 delta pna move be so non-committal to a western n/a ridge like this before. i'm wondering if speed in the flow this... or more phase 5 mjo that... i don't want to instill hope, or add to the seemingly problematic d-drip mania problem with this social media engagement ... ( lol ) but, this keeps reminding me of the Boxing Day storm back in 2010's, great cosmic dildo winter for specifically Ayer, Ma ... (eh hem) that storm was essentially dead and vanquished from the charts over a great initial look at like d8, too. with just 42 or something hours to go ... it came all the way back to deliberately give me, personally, 2.4" of arctic dust while ingrate trolls that didn't deserve it were rewarded with blizzard b.js yeah... heh. anyway, modeling standards really have steeply improved a lot in the last 12 years - not sure that is happening quite the same here. we are not seeing a complete loss from the charts. the vestiges of "should" happen/suggestions are still there. so if it comes back stronger in the short game, it won't be so drastic but this has been a really, really lousy drug supply. i say we switch dealers!
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but in deference to all ... all models did exceptionally well with that - at least as far as my memory aligns. that may not have been anything particular to euro skill, but more having to do with just the uniqueness of that hemisphere at the time. unique situations tend to have overwhelming physics that tend to dominate the field while they are passing through out in time ... that's why "Sandy" and "Superstorm, 1993" and on and on, were detectable quite far out in the guidance and became eerily confident from a long way off ...unlike this giant piece of f'ing shit
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for 144 hours ... maybe this will be different, but from my experience ... when the 00z ggem, 00z gefs, 00z ecm blend looks the way it does at 6 days, best case scenario typically results in yeah.. you get something out of it but it ceilings a middling/pedestrian event. i do see the 18z to 00z to 06z large continuity breaking as a red flag - maybe there is a bigger event being masked by modeling ineptitude. i dunno
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hm sufficed it is to say … this is going to morph in future runs. that’s an unlikely stall position up there east of Freeport maine when that structure so deep and cutting off over ne PA The problem with this run was that it didn’t have quite enough dpva as it was first amplifying so that the low took too long to get started but if we just get a little bit more dpva earlier on in that sequence and all that ends up over block Island
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there's a subtly there that is important imo the strongest solutions are biased on the left side of that 'inner spread' region. i'm pretty sure those members, vs the outer/weaker ones ..., are in conflict over the degree of deep layer meridian character there is to the circulation mode at this time.
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this euro run is suspect beyond 120 hours for me. the ridge barely progressing e, off an approximate 100 to 110w longitudinal axis, yet the s/w's are racing e and stretching the flow like that - mm it's more likely those s/w slow down. not sure about amplitude and what that means as far as any cyclogen, but that former practice is suspect.
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Thanks, Will ! ...i was looking things over and wondering oh no, what kind of damage control is it gonna take in here this morning... so, i was going to tell folks that the EPS (and GEPs both actually ) were not only fine for 170+ hours, but actually trended better, too - low and behold, we can always count on you lol yeah, i also want to add that the last 2 cycles of the operational guidance regressed on the western ridge amplitude. it's not even subtle. it's on the order 6 to 10 dem through the arc axis. quick example, set this recent 18z gfs next to the 00z gfs, and compare the ridge amplitude. bigger western ridge, more digging in the east. i don't know if that is going to all be the case, but something is neg interfering with the western heights at a larger scope/picture. it may be the the phase 5 mjo - tho it is not a pattern maker, it is a pattern modulator. so its contribution really shouldn't be ignored entirely. it can be overcome. this isn't the first rodeo with western heights not cooperating in the late mid range, either.