Typhoon Tip

86/63 ... she's baaaack

I remember that event as moving too fast ... It was in an out in 8 hours. Synoptic wave with a ZR sounding around the N cyclonic arc. If I am not remembering that synoptic behavior right, I'm not remembering it right. But, I have seen a lot of those in the past 5 years... where we halted accretion about .1" below warning level, not because of warming but because the event ended. Certainly pretty, with llv pixie dust in the evening street lamps kissing the mood. Good ice storms require a quasi static synoptic set up .. protracted over days even. It would be very unlikely ( like a return rate of 1000::1) to observe the coveted dystopian fantasy of perpetuating 19 F while heavy liquid super cooled droplet water freezes with exceptional phase transition efficiency so high it's hard to measure much loss... fantasy. But ..it's about 'making up for it in the aggregate' - and time being a key factor. Ice storm mayhem enthusiasts should prefer reality, where is more apt to set up 29.8 F with somewhere between (light+moderate)/2 ZR. And the synoptic features are not moving fast. The big ones in history... usually the icing sounding scenario got stuck, "trapped" in the speed of planetary wave contention. Such that the wedging high imposed a steady state low level input of ( very important!) lower wet-bulb air. This latter factor cannot be underscored enough, as latent heat of phase change self destructs in-the-bank cold air to 32.1 There's two critical moving parts. However a region gets it done with the sounding structure ...that's 1. 2 is the ability to sustain it over an extended period. As far as 1 is concerned, ...that gets into local studies surrounding topographic and geographic features that augment in either direction. You're right that around here we have unique circumstance for rather intensely inverted soundings. The mountain orientation leaving a 'void' from D.E.M. to N NJ ( save for the ineffectually tall Watchusett region), 'sucks' the atmosphere back SW - usually this manifest in the 925 mb as a countering jet ...which we've talked about ad nauseam in the past. But that jet gets cranking and can impart -4C air in solid slab to the surface, with +8 at 800 mb...and that's actually too much ...you get micro inefficiencies in accretion due to weirdly warm particles, or you get PLs .. either direction depending on how deep the cold layer is. Point is, "relative" to a regions limitations or advantages, the over arc synoptic theme has to be compensating. I think there is a reason why places like SW over the continent are better ...because they don't have to have special compensating synoptics - they're are closer to an idealized flat surface rendering, while being circumstantially situated near the mean terminus of the wintertime polar boundary.

That -1 (2008) actually ruined that (or saved it depending upon one’s point of view) from being truly extraordinary.

https://phys.org/news/2022-09-multiple-climate-escalates-15c-global.html

Well yeah ... ( sorry not in the conversation) but just look at the typical ZR sounding. It's I think I read 3,200? typically.. before the +C's interval Much shallower and the drops have more therms and you start losing - but it also matter how cold the inversion layer is, too..etc. But if the cold layer extends higher, PL start occurring. So any elevation say 2.8K might be in the coldest region of the inversion integral, prior to the temp started to rise much above that - so you're getting glom accretion.

Keeping in mind, expanding HC --> summer circulation mode changes? - that's become more coherent in the last 10 years... It actually began ( empirically ) in the 1990s - I think that's when it was first observed. Personally I noticed the 1998 super nino was like a gateway and things have been interestingly ( increasingly so..) different, almost subtle, ever since. Point being, it's not as detectable 15 years ago as it is now... There are obviously other factors that contribute to a season's total favorable or not favorable basal state. When other aspects may be offsetting ..those become dominant, perhaps then masking a "longer term" HC aspect - I agree with you there. That would be more likely ( intuitively) over a longer sense ... but it's not the only factor. However, if we remove favorable factors and leave the basin open to some sort of stasis that is a weaker HC domain ...it's equally hypothetical ( to me anyway LOL fwiw - ) that a shitty HC circulation eddy is not as conducive. It's a posit - it's fine. Doesn't have to be right. Just assessing some sort of logical circuitry. That's the beginning of science I suppose. Looking around ...I don't see any other reason why the Basin would be so productively low.

It also depends upon one's curriculum counseling.. A good college program might assess a student's progress after Freshman year ...and offer different pathways more suited. If a student isn't pulling their weight in the advancing applied math aspects, they may be exposed to more media-related disciplines. Lyndon State College used to do that. I interviewed to go there back in the late 1980s... A friend a bit younger than I went/graduated from there in the early aughts. ...He started out in media and ended up going more research pre...while other kids opted more communications, with minors in Met.. the idea there to be a TV weather bunny. But ( LOL ) I know three TV Mets, and one has a Bachelor's, the other two have Masters in Meteorology. But I guess that just comes down to the peregrinations of life and how ever opportunities present themselves along the way...blah blah. Up at UML ...back in the 1990s that school had no media prep at all. It was entirely prequel to graduate level. It was intense. The Senior requirement was to derive Navior-Stokes...free hand. We didn't have "math cad" and whatever techy aids Millennials now walk and talk with this pathological entitlement attitude as a result. Lol... ( just kidding Millennials) ... we also started out with 40 some odd Freshman and I think finished with 12 or 15. I never went beyond that. I was not a particularly good student. I also graduated late... like, really late. So finding some grad fit somewhere felt like a culdesac life anyway. Things worked out much better as a forsaken Meteorologist misfit neglect, with an unrealized life passion as a circumstantially stuffed intellect instead ... so yeah waaay better.

I think you were close to nailing it several weeks ago when you mentioned CC ... yup - been thinking so, myself .. for several years. Just waiting for this to happen and now it is - not sure it's just randomness. Hypothesis: With the noted changes in the summer time hemisphere ( circulation totality) (that are attributed to CC -) ... the TC sounding is in trouble. It's not so much the thermodynamics of it - although I suspect it is too being affected - but there is odd shearing mechanics everywhere. It has to do with HC expansion to be blunt. Folks ( directed at the straw man) need to be aware that expansion in the context of HC does not mean a stronger Hadley Cell. The circulation in fact weakens in strength, while conserving total mass transport by spatial increase. This breaks down the strength of the trades below the 500 mb to the sfc... Metaphorically, it 'hole - punches' the interior of the circulation domain space, too. Both circumstances that are hostile to TC genesis due to shearing tendencies. This has ramifications spanning seasons. We head into winters with increased OHE ... and bleed/radiative rates being constant, that sets the table for the following spring and summers to be very warm. It's making sense - CC is like a battery ...and the ocean being a factor of 4 more capacitance of thermal energy than air, the seas are a pretty solid candidate for the "anodes to that battery". But, counter-intuitively, it effects the winters. The Pacific piss-pool up there meandering around the NE Pac(PDO) is now being blamed on CC, and is likely contributing to the -EPO tendencies in winters. It also sharpens baroclinic mean potential along the eastern sides of mid latitude continental regions. That enhances PWAT in adjacent land regions. ... there's a lot of issues with failing to dissipate oceanic heat content, and many of them are protracted aspects... where aggregate/cumulative over time.

Ha! I've observed this phenomenon with that particular guidance as persistent since roughly 2016 ... regardless of season. It began about whence the rapid version upgrades began. As a conceptual extension: I am not sure what the exact performance scales would reveal. It may be a better at hemispheric/continental scopes, ..perhaps "masking" it's error in manufacturing cool nuances - it seems to be uniquely skilled in physically manifesting them out there in time. But it "seems" to me that it has to correct some 20% off it's late mid/extended range features quite a bit - albeit anecdotal. Case in point, these huge SW carving BD troughs the last three cycles over the lower Maritimes, backing down cold frosts into Maine. I do think ( btw ) Maine has a shot at a season's first wide spread frost, anyway ... a week from this morning, but the GFS has been overly bullying too much cold. Another aspect it loves to do is build big continental non-hydrostatic arcs that encompass ORD and BOS, but you look at the sfc evolution ...and it almost invariably has a giant cool high pressure parked over the top of it, such that everyone even inside the ridge has an east flow. I know why it does that...anecdotal or not! It's too strong/weighty with the N-stream as a permanent base-line error. So, it physically ends up with surplus into confluence aspects - it becomes a mass balancing problem so ends up with too much high pressure.

There could be daily crispies for cloud enthusiasts ... late Sunday through late Tuesday. Three days of cyclic convection. Not bad for mid September. Also, week 2 seems slated for some warm anomalies. Tough to hang one's hat on an outlook for warm temperatures after the 15th of the month.. but, the signals been fairly persistent in the ens means. Oper. Euro extrapolates, as does the GFS - no comment on exact magnitude.

https://phys.org/news/2022-09-europe-hottest-summer-eu.html

appears that spread's ubiquitous ..up down north south east west all dimensions.

Mmm... damn, you just missed the opportunity there - Instead of NOAAnet launching missiles at ECMWF... etc, it should have "made the technological leap into quantum state controls" - controlling the weather is immediately weaponized ... That'd be cool!

I’m wondering if we’re getting one last run at 90 … hmm maybe a handful of 87s but the gfs just refuses to quit attempting

End is visible ... She's breakin' up on radar. Other than that RI events yesterday and some sporadic CT, this was handled pretty well over all by guidance. The convective totaling in those monstrous local scales ... not really in the purview of modeling skill the general 1.5 to 4" coverage however, is, and that was done pretty good. I'd say the GFS came in behind the Euro overall.

FIT reported 1.93 yesterday, then 1.83 since 00 GMT ... Isn't that 3.76? Why is NWS reporting 1 and change along rt 2?

Heh. Phew. That should keep the totals down huh

Interesting yeah. - there’s also an interesting band of enhancement behaving independent of the general motion of rad over NE Mass. I’ve been using COD, … which isn’t very good of course. But it’s been wobbling like a BD boundary. I checked sfc obs and there’s no obvious indication of a boundary even though it wobbled SW into that position a couple hours ago.

It is true that colder air does not hold as much as warmer air. However George was talking about the giant rains that came out of completely different kinematics that are non- akin entirely to those mechanics associated to snow. It’s comparing incomparable processes.

Did you notice that sudden collapse south of the northern edge up your way. I saw that an hr ago and thought it was just local mt eddy or something but it’s unilaterally along the entire length of the shield … Maybe that halts? But was that modeled to do that - if it doesn’t stop collapsing we’re done even down here by 2 o 3am

Mmm. The synoptics are part of this but they are weak. Mostly weak synoptics operating on huge PWAT, modulated locally by convection

Payin' attention ? - up here in this "synoptic" rain shield this thing is intensifying markedly over the last 2 hours, with lots more 40+ dbz pixelation packing in

There's some variability around area tippers but 1.10 to 1.50 seems to be the range here along Rt 2.

Agreed with this ... I've been writing about this for a couple days here and elsewhere, that the synoptic forcing in this is/was weak, but there is huge parametric situational surplussing with PWAT's exceeding 2" ivo of a convergence - same idea. I also mentioned that this would require a mode switch rad but that's old school - it sounds like there's new tech in the field ( just based upon what you've said) that determines the nature of drop physicality? That's fascinating. ...InCREdibly nerdy but interesting nonetheless. In terms of modeling performance - you know I've seen this before ... There really is a gap where big parameters coincide with weak forcing; sometimes it does, and some times does not bring hell. But you're right - the models splashing 8" totals. I spoke about that earlier, that it doesn't mean no big event just because the continuity sucks. It seems this is more about where we are in technology/modeling - the existence is as important in the runs.

Helluva bright band in down there - they must be getting agglomerated PL's the size of hail, huh. And the sick isentropic lift band in S VT/NH is putting down 3.5"/hr rates ... we got a long way to go on this 42" er