Typhoon Tip

All you need is just a little more cold and that 0Z GFS coastal’s snow.

Presentation overall is here: https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/d18edd685e8d46dfba1d16c7673cc9b8

yeah I noticed that, too. But I thought it was more interesting how the 1978 storm - in general - is slipping out of contention more suddenly since 2000. It's probable that it'll last at Boston and Providence but over all, it seems most top 5s are clustered since 2000, with more decadal spread prior.

I thought this graphic at NWS ...as we near the 45th anniversary of the 1978 storm, was pretty interesting...

Imho, the bottom two GEF series don't really reflect much support for NOAA's outlook. Those ridge aspects are very transient, and in fact, there's enough individual members with top heavy +PP draped N of the 558 isohypses; as well, that's confluence you see between ~ Lake Huron and the southern tip of JB... It all likelier points to pinning the mean polar boundary S of what those heights might at first suggest. That's A B, I understand why-for the top NOAA prognostics. The longer term climate and teleconnector markers are overwhelmingly converged upon some form or another of a massive SD warm anomaly over the eastern continent. I mean... La Nina climo + MJO's running around 3-6 phase spaces + the warm bursts in Feb trend of the last 5 years ... anything else we can add? These do not protract winter. We just are not seeing it in the dailies ...like, at all! Which is weird. I just wonder if/when the other shoe falls.

I'm curious ...

It's doing what the GFS is doing ... it's carrying along internal destructive interference; but in the cast of this run, it ends up a big bag of nothing because of it. There is no take away from any run - not last night's 00z or 12z. I elaborated on the 00z run just to parse out what it was indicating for the sake of it alone. There's not much to be gleaned, certainly not vested in the first place, in any deterministic sense of it... The reaction must purely be missing a drug dose in behavior. lord -

Yeah...I intimated a similar take on that Euro earlier... I like the fact that it's not a conked out hyperbole bomb, and is taming itself to just a seasonal looking coastal.

Not for not .... The Euro seemed to perform best with this weird cold event.

GGEM model keeps putting all the emphasis on the lead side of the trough/S/W that's running up through the 10th... The Euro does much less of that. It clamps that response down to almost negligible and waits for the after S/W to rotate around ...and yadda yadda yadda. The GFS has both... It triggers a lead... but then minors it out as a smear, then detonates a new coastal with not enough cold. yeah, solutions are all over the place.

Mm...looks unremarkably different than prior runs to me. 'Sides...I need the ensembles to stop sending the system up the St L seaway for starters... The operational runs... okay - but we're at a range whence the oper version may as well just be another ensemble member. The EPS mean did have more a system like it's deterministic version ( 00Z) but, it has a structure that suggests the deterministic version is an intense outlier. Euro has history for amp bias at this range, too. I would say the 00z deterministic Euro is lofty hoped outlier until we see some semblance of agreement coming from the varied other sources.

What? that's weird... NCEP has a paper out there about the CFS that says that it has modest cool bias - owing to the fact that it's parameterized with 1988 climate metrics. I posted this along with a link to the paper a couple weeks ago, folks. The opposite of a warm bias, is what they've formally published. It needs an upgrade - in other words ... - to account for climate change. whatever. Either way... it's got like repeating hits out there right through the end of the month. It's also got a dominating pattern construct over the hemisphere that is really quite - ironically - diametrically opposing that of the La Nina late winter --> spring climate. That's odd for a "Climate" Forecast System... but who knows why-for

The ICON solution is f'ing awesome... (12z )... I really have come to the conclusion this model does not belong in the pantheon of the majors, based on my own observation of it performance - it's just outclassed. But hey,...I gave the f'er a real chance and it blew it too often. That said, the run in a vacuum has about 3" of sleet and ice for interior SNE, in a waling Nor'easter that would undoubtedly then transition as an exit 6" of snow on top. I'm just sick enough to think that might be a funner experience than having that snow...

Ha! I was just looking at that - I applaud your bravery in daring mention that match in this perfect saturation vapeor pressure ratio of gasoline and air mixture ... You got some goodly sized plums there. Lol

I was giving this some thought, that 'specific' concern regarding combination - Like I said, the "the advection aspects" - I was including the sustaining wind/gusting as windchill, in that heading and at a regional scale. But as far as at this location/Ayer, there was a nor-easter in 2015 that had 12 hours of winds gusting to 50 mph in occasional milkshake white outs, at 1 F above zero! It went to -5 before coming back after midnight. That's unfortunately countable if doing a straight up comparison. Also, there was other times in that 2015 stretch where we sustained back side advection with single digit cold... So not as deep in wind chill, no, but close...and sustained for many hours. 2016 also had temperatures similar to this in that event, though I don't specifically recall the wind chill numbers in that. So, like I said...I give this one an edge at a regional scope. But it's debatable at this local area of N. Middl. Co whether this is the alpha romeo at in the VIP cold class. I guess in the end it's really a nerds rage, because at civility concerns any of those scenarios of lore would just about be sensibly indistinguishable

Looks like we bottomed out at -13 here in Ayer. Most home sites accessible via the web are -12 to -14... We've been at least that cold several times over the 11 years ( too long!) I've lived at this location. I'm sure overall this event was historic for x-y-z reasons. There's no intent to dispute. I'm sure someone's frozen to death, or someone's got a 60K burst pipe this or that or the other validating horror... But in so far as what was empirically observed here in N Middlesex Co/W of 495, this was not an "all-time" ordeal. It was on par with handful of bottom miserable cold scenarios. It was certainly an out of the blue and strange one!! The cold on Mt Washington, Boston... and just the advection aspect, too, these were all measured and clad. Together with the overall obviously should give this a distinctive edge at a broader consideration.

Ensemble mean is instrumental at this range - At least from my position - the discussion is just wrt what the model runs illustrate, on the 00z cycle. I realize people are starved to the brink of sanity for some semblance of a non CC afflicted season ( LOL... j/k), and thus float a thumb over the apoplexy a-bomb button. But there's no aver here as to a D8.5 - 10 ranged scenario. Personally...mm the pattern we are seeing emerge in the ~ 9th -15th window is uncharted territory. I.e., hasn't happened this year. Which is to say, a relaxed flow +PNAP structure occurring while there is lingering/ample hydrostatic gradient, N-S, through mid latitude continent. It may be difficult to do, but I would encourage folks look at events within the period in question more uniquely, as the erstwhile persistence may take a hiatus for that time span. ...probably not...but I thought I'd advance the impertinent implication of actual lucid objectivity, anyway haha

Re the 00z guidance... The GFS picked up where it left off at 18z ( and perhaps priors-), propagating a L/W across the mid latitude continent ...unable to give any one of the finite S/Ws contained a mechanical proxy. This finite scale destructive interference still manages to activate the barocinic leaf and QPF between the TV and NE region, but keeps the totality unable to fully connect with the best perceived S/W timing into the backside of the L/W ... Such that the lead activated axis actually still sets up a substantial ice storm signal along Rt 2 to roughly RUT-CON in NH with snow of unknown amt above, cool rains south... It's basically a busted ravioli system in the GFS... It ends it all as a period of snow collapsing SE as the rest of the trough then limps through consequently too weak with overall cyclone proficiency. The Euro ...possibly owing to the 4-d smoothing tech it applies/scrubs the charts with out in time ... caries a L/W across that has less of that intra-scaled tussle.. Namely, it damps out the lead impulse(s) more, such that the main one coming into the backside can take proxy and is thus able to catch up and physically connect with the b-c axis more proficiency...and the coastal becomes an easy mark at that point - in part because there is just an exquisitely perfectly timed polar-arctic high moving through Quebec as the gunk approaches the M/A coast, underneath. Boom... - in an aside note, the fact that it's not an overly conked out hyper -bombed as a result, but just has a sensible/seasonable Nor'easter in the cinema, gives this particular model run much more Oscar buzz for me...

Yeah..not sure what they are looking at ...or think they are looking at - late to party this morning but that 00z Euro run was a classic Nor'easter. Snow NYC-BOS corridor, even penetration E CT RI and parts of SE Mass, with typical flip to rain the Cape... Just talking about this one run, mind you. The 204 position and synoptic metrics are almost perfect in this rendition here: That's probably 8-12" for almost everyone in the forum queue, verbatim.

Nasty ice storm central NE

3 for the moment ...

Anyone want a lesson in destructive interference ... look at the 18z GFS

Gummies?

That's a good question actually... man, I wish we had all this telecon wizardry and cinema back on circa February 15, 1956... What would that've looked like. It's also like that for 1978... 1888 - man that'd been a neat D10, huh

Hahaha... let's not get carried away.. but I like the vibe