Typhoon Tip

Couldn’t even get to the end of this one … Solid downgrading effort will forever be a demerit engraving on this event’s tombstone

Wait... Jerry says the UKMET is like the GFS/GGEM, in a context that suggested it wasn't that bad. Ineedsnow says it was crappy. this is why I cannot really take 'model analysis' in here as very useful sometimes I guess for starters, neither is really an "analysis" ha yeah...the Euro's doing something the other globals aren't. It repositions the whole southern stream wave signature farther W... Not hugely, but enough that the whole thing then just ends up west because of that.

This thread doesn't have a huge participation today do to the ongoing event out of window, but a handful of posters did do drive by neg-head, snipes ... based upon lesser likely indicators. It probably doesn't reflect the ballast of ideas on this system.

Man... if you're a spring/warm enthusiast, book a flight - that is if you can afford it. I'd plan an open ended vacation anywhere but N. of this approximate line,

Actually... the GGEM's 500 mb evolution would argue less of a SWFE, because the larger core wind torpedo goes S of LI on this run. It's a trend over the prior that is subtle -

30F 2.5"

Minnesota crunch ftw ... maybe? God...I hate that we have to depend upon an index that I hate, in order to get a storm that I am beginning to hate ( just from dealing with this bullshit..), at a time of year that I have been perfectly honest about in the past, I borderline hate.

Haha... has anyone noticed that nagging attempt at Norlan sort of IVT on the GFS runs. One thing I think is interesting about that phenomenon is that it's happened like ...3 times in history worth notoriety, yet has been modeled 3,000 times since the phenomenon was codified as a real thing. Or, maybe it happens a lot more frequently than we are aware? perhaps just below the radar of any impact so no one notices...

Heh... one thing I like about TT is the convenience to the fast comparison, "Prev. Run" button. Bravo on that. But, looking at hr 90 on this 12z run of the GFS, and clicking said button some 10 times... any differences are really almost irrelevant. If nothing else, that's some impressive continuity.

From orbit.. this is a SWFE ( I realize others have made that connection - all due street cred conferred) ... The deeper S/W mechanical totality goes W, while the lower troposphere cold undercutting prevents warm intrusion to the surface. That's SWFE realization incarnate. It just comes down to timing transitions. Some very intense cold lower blocking can make a SWFE be almost 90% or more snow, merely crusted over by some freezing drizzle. Like in some of those Dec events in 2008... Some others, less...you get 3" thumps followed by IP then cold rain, with a modest net gain of Plaster of Paris. You know...technically, SWFE can be all rain... It's really anytime cold forces occlusion whilst S/W mechanics run NW. But... we obviously don't give a ratz azz about those LOL The temperature actually rises post the occlusion frontal passage. You know the drill - Whether this system shows a more "cleanly" idealized SWFE, just those two primary leading parametric circumstances alone, make this a SWFE to me. S/W travels NW; low levels effectively succeed in preventing WAA to penetrate to the surface.

Honestly ... I would keep it to "...cooked as a moderate event here..." but I'm with you. semantics perhaps. I think this has a delimiting upside as time has gone by, because it's getting more coherent that it will be running up into a negative interference environment. This flavor of the NAO seems hostile. a- it's ..pretty much gotta attenuate some. My contention is really about the positioning in space and time out there by the 'nested' guidance types - whether that is even right. I lean no. Because the -NAO that's in retro behavior is directly counter to the the position the NAM is attempting to take this thing (ICON too - I've read about its weird 'hexagonal' framing grid ...no idea why-for or wtf, but it doesn't inspire trust when it's running performance, as far as I can tell, is about as structured as a dung beetles ball of Cape Buffalo shit, and perhaps only useful in that space). SO... my thoughts then run to why, and the best I surmise is the domain coverage - but we'll see. agreed with needing globals.

One thing those who are hiding their panic over the NAM ... ( ICON for that matter...) haha Seriously, they may be right, but it would be dumb luck. Those guidance' domain spaces do not include a large aspect of the NAO. As it is in retrograde across the N/Atl Basin leading this, during and afterward... it's influence may not be entirely detectable.

It's got a really strong core, too. It's feeding back - I suspect - because that aspect sends out a strong short wave ridge signal immediately leading, and that's really the other side of what your talking about. It may be causing the confluence to be very impressive. But, ...the question becomes two fold, one ... where then does this thing go after that? I mean it can't go N. It has to go E. It almost doesn't matter that it's where it is, at 84 hrs ... it may only delay the same result... once it is inevitably forced E. two ... who the the f*k cares about this model at that range? just sayn'

Extended NAM" haha isn't that like the DGEX ... R.I.P. ... I don't mean to sully the good name of a legend... for the storms that thing used to paint would inspire Homer -

Yeah, my old standard method has medium coherent signal for mid month for something bigger. Really the 11-15th ...too early to hone within that range, which may even blur an entry around the 9th+ The 06z GFS ...maaaaybe began suspicious hint with that deep vortex opening up S of NS out in that time range. Looking over the GEF individual members, about 1/2 have become more specifically intriguing (just the coarse membership provided at PSU -) as a cursory eval. But that is a nice hemispheric look, because the NAO is relaxing. As others have noted, there is a PNA rise going on. I'd like to see it actually go higher than the 0 SD axis/ Buffalo massacre variant. Race is on against the sun, in a La Nina hang over, in a CC that seems to express less with warm temperatures ...and more with accelerating away from cold behavior whenever it can ( weird)... but as is smeared in the guidance at this sort of range, there's enough cold in proximal to this mess.

No no no... The NAO has to be relaxing people. If you somehow metaphysically succeed in conjuring a -NAO elaphant over the western limb of the domain ... good luck sitting down, for as this recent soring of the butt demonstrates forcibly - what? you're forgetting ...like, while the butt is being sored? LOL. Okay - good luck.

I get this this thinking ...but for me, it's like one color off the pallet of ways the AO could effect the circulation mode at mid latitudes. The issue I have is that the AO is an annular domain space. Which means that it's in situ modes may or may not force amid any given region around the hemisphere. Case in point, the big +AO --> -AO flip in Jan 2007. For the first two weeks of that avalanche phase change ( like +5 to -3 SD in a week!), all the cold offloaded into Eurasia and east across that continent. It's just a word of caution for all as we move into an "iffy" causal relationship with the "SSW" ( which upon reviewing that more closely, I'm not sure we really saw downward propagation phenomenon... but whatever -). -AOs don't always homogeneously distribute their payloads/forcing on jets follow.

show shower snow storm... interesting. bursty. Dust, then 5 minute intervals of changing aggregate sizes here this morning and scanning rad ... 'can see why. Looks like that'll characterize the day. It's a certainly winter appealed out there. Closing in a 2" now. 29F

Haaaa HAhahahahahahahaaaa ... Methuen

The detailing of the 06z GFS from what I'm seeing has more switch back to moderate snow after IP, just prior to ending... N of the Pike in the interior. It's a nuance observation at this range, but I also notice a subtle E reposition over prior runs wrt the primary over NE Ohio. The secondary in the Bite region off the N Jersey coast is also slightly more identifiable by 96 hours (comparing...). It's tedious differences ... but shows there's some spacing sensitivity there. Should the wave mechanics adjust a total trajectory just a little S, that secondary may take off and that would change the map a little as far how far that IP/ZR mess intrudes into the region... Or, the entire run suite's full of shit. Also should not forget what may be the most important leitmotif of 2022-2023 winter, either: soring of the butts

Personally unsure re the Euro ... It's inside of D4 when over the Arklatex position with the deep tropospheric wave space, which is pretty good performance window for that particular guidance - yet the GFS and GGEM are, albeit minuscule, perhaps crucially weaker during, and more importantly... after leaving that region. Weaker at the trough's best amplitude point, means less coherency when it's headlong trajectory ultimately meets Mike Tyson's -NAO fist. Thus ... I also lean toward applying at least some measure of conserved approach to all guidance. Take whatever the "super blend" is right now, and assume we get some destructive interference, just in deference to the fact that we are in a leitmotif pattern of sending these kinematics headlong into the same manifold of delimiters that caused the present system headaches. So there's two uncertainties to iron out: - how much needs to be conserved post this trough nadir near the Arklatex; - how much exertion also after that time, from outside. All the overnight ens means and their deterministic flagships demoed more west limb -NAO burst emerging ... . You can see backing elements in the synoptic cinema NE of Maine, prior to that onset of the high latitude ridging. It's always interesting when that happens. It's because the exertion in the field already starts; systems will begin to respond prior the ridge manifesting. It's complex .. Anyway, the short version is that this next one in line may advance toward more in the way of inhibition when nearing the 90W/40N ~ area, if the -NAO idiosyncrasy verifies. Ugh...

Rad density completely deteriorated overnight ... really gave the allusion to running into a wall of subsidence, certainly an attenuation of lift either way. Gee wonder where that source may have come from - It seems outside of a smaller region of SW zones ... it is interesting that every model went more prolific in the end game, yet this reality is right back to really sub Advisory - so far ... No sense laboring/echoing others any further. Largely a bust around this region, with an inch and occasional very light aggregate periods during dust.

Seems like it’s sneaking a comeback

Yeah, I was just gonna say this is the first event all year…. all.effing.year that didn’t go the wrong direction inside of 36 hours.

Yikes! between rt 2 and the Pike...that band in there looks like 2.2" of IP with .33" accretion ... ...after 3-5" of snow