Typhoon Tip

heh. oh... that's what you get for stumbling by a discussion

QPF means Quantitative Precipitation Forecast ... So, for in the case of that chart, probably there's heavy rain and/or snow associated with that look

I'm not Will and I realize you are not asking me ... but, we don't know anything about the thermal profile in that cinema there, for one. But yeah...otherwise, you have a nice easterly 850mb ( most likely) anomaly. SO, barring warmth wrapping around and the CCB not displaced NW or weirdness... It is at minimum a QPF anomaly regardless of what is actually falling.

Really .. .haha... man, you got some low standards - this was the EPS back on 03/03 for Saturday - just a wee bit more impressive in the flat scalar values. but ... to each his own

Actually ...that was me lol But yeah... It was in the context of needing those heights to not go the other way.

just Folks need to be made aware up front ... we are dealing with spring recovery in the hemisphere as these events try to manifest. don't expect any solution to be blue with room to spare... unless you're just in a lucky spot relative to that particular run's nuances. Otherwise everything is baseline marginal at this range now that we're into the 2nd week of March. Jesus, equinox sun in two weeks. It really does get really hard even prior to then. There's probably a reason why the snow climate has a bit of steep drop off at the ides.

I'm only out to 114 but that pv frag hanging over N. D. waiting to subsume the southern aspects looks tasty heh

admiring the 84 hr ...that may or may not bring goods into SNE but someone in the eastern PA/Jersey area may score in that

I also like that it's widening the gap between it, and the 'possibilities' next week by speeding things up a tad

Not sure it matters... im ean it matters in general that's not what i mean, but in that scenario it looks like that may even get overwhelmed.

It's okay ... you can self-promote. I saw your post haha no but I've been privately musing that we could actually miss both. I'm sure that thoughts crossed a few radars, huh nah.... (lol) It doesn't sit well with me as of this morning - none of it. The original signal was/is real, despite the lack of confidence in any of these mere phantasms we've so far seen manifested in the models. It's annoying... the potential is large, any one of these solutions can't be ignored, but then as time and new model runs go buy ... consummately proves they all should be. ... And yet all the while, the signal is still there and just as impressively coherent. It's hit media circuits! I like that CT guy a few posts ago, because of the concision. Saturday ... or Tuesday. Meanwhile, CNN has a headline on their website talking about the cold anomaly for the U.S. with possible snow in the M/A ... I mean wtf with the utter lack of model performance. Still no difference in confidence on anything. And fact of the matter is, if there was a bigger dawg in this, uuuusually those bigger affairs show up in the guidance and have staying power despite run to run permutation. Not seeing that. These are - maybe ...just saying maybe here - signs for me to really just remain skeptical, despite that overwhelming signal. They don't always produce. We haven't had a lot of signals this winter. The Dec one was pretty big, too. I would say this particular winter has seen an unusually higher number of signal to positive return failures. I guess if you put a pistol to my head ... there will be a lead system, but it will 'de magnify' toward a reality that is a minoring event, with a lolly pot moderate points around a narrower stripe and probably we see milk sun not too far away on the N-E side of a NW-SE movement. It may blow up as it's leaving out over the ocean. Then, later go with the blend of the EPS and GEPs for next week, which means the operational Euro is too far NW. Then maybe one last shot nearing the Equinox and then we're out

Perhaps we could be serviced with a minor to low end moderate impact on the 11th/12th ... that slabs in a crucial cold insert on the backside and the sky stays cloudy in the interim - like between the sisters of Dec 96

At this point ...I'd be willing to dump the first pass at this 10th thru ides period in lieu of that 2nd system... The 00z CFS, the 12z Euro and this 18z GFS show the immense, and probably. ... greater potential actually exists for that 14/15th attempt. Unfortunately for now...we're still spraying bombs By the way, the 18z was 6 to 8 dm shallower with the 500 mb core on the first way, which "might" be a sign of things to come. The overall issue is that this is pattern modeled is Nitro and the handling is very delicate or -

Interesting EPS in coming ... It tends to be rather non-dispersive relative to its flagship version. So ? do we end up with an epic battle between the GEFs and the EPS as to which wave space to focus upon - interesting

guys, ... the 00z CFS ? haha... I mean it's not really a deterministic guidance type. No. But it was all about the 2nd wave

heh..the 00z CFS model was something else with the 2nd wave ( 14th) ...

One aspect I'd watch ... ( related to the 'under L.I.' precarious set up ) Pay attention to the fact that the spread is around the W-NW arc of this mean... with some deeper members ... Firstly, what an impressive correction toward greater amplitude this was ... But, this means there are probably some members with more deep layer trough descending bottoming out along that thinking

Yeah...Brooklyn' already commented - or someone did back a ways... But that was a huge lurch into a predominant lead impulse as taking the show. There's been wave space/negative interference - I suspect all along now that I'm seeing it actually. Look back, it's probably more culprit in why we haven't seen a more coherent materialization of this overall threat period, sooner - ...speculative. But showing the immense potential of bringing a match to a gas fight ... the slightest gap introduced between the two wave spaces vying for proxy on this sub-index scaled tussle (just meaning the actual S/W interactions), and look what happens to the GEF mean? If this comes in just a little more amp ... and were to evolve UNDER Long Island ( which it is damn close to doing...), this becomes more than a medium impact event with very quick correction

Well, of course… I’m a bigger fan of that tact. However, so long as people are “considering“ the icon solution, I’m just informing that the sfc is a piece of shit at least comparatively. But like you said the 500 mb and I also agree, because I pointed that out myself is like phenomenal.

It is but ends up, just sent out a memo that it’s a really terrible solution so I decided to scrub the whole run

Yup… See…? All you need is one good model run and “it’s all good“ I like Gasper’s statement, the sports columnist when he said “winning is the best deodorant”

Anyway, we’re just ping-ponging conversation tidbits about the modeling cinema describing whether we like or didn’t like the movie and who’s performances we think we’re better than others, and how well the writing the cinematography and all that shit went down. Lol. In that metaphoric neon, I would say that the 500 mbar was brilliantly written, but the acting at the surface leaves something to be desired.

Oh yeah… I can just cheat on my phone Anyway, I don’t really have a lot of faith in the icon as I’m sure nobody else does, but it would be amusing if it of all models were the one that kind of detect the reality on potentiality here

I'm in a meeting at work and can't really look but did steal a glimpse at the ICON ( which I have not faith in as a modeling tool but fwiw -) and the 500mb for the first of the two is every bit a realization as can be, with a slowing deepening pseudo cutoff below 530 dm, in an utterly perfect climate location to pummel NYC-BOS. whether the sfc concurs and other synoptic aspects ...no idea

This seems to be a cogent and valid impression of where things stand at this time, yup. I would caution, however, that it's not too late for amplitude to return. There's a pattern change really that is multi-dimensional. It's not just the immediate correction of the -PNA as it quickly rises over 5 days to 0 or even modest positive ( as well as the west (geographic) fade of the -NAO block...etc etc), but a very fast equatorial SST correciton and SOI reversal, combined with a unfurling of the powerful MJO wave space that is in 8 ... these are more indirect, these latter indicators, and they really should correlate better to a western N/A ridge response - it's certainly not harming the prospects... Lest we forget ... how often aspects can look rather dreary when relaying from the extended into the middle range for a stint. It's all 5 to 6 days away.