Typhoon Tip

The -NAO and general blocking is fading while retrograding west...That was always part of the deal.. But it needs(ed) to time right with the other moving parts in total hemisphere. These storms seem all powerful when they're under way, but they have narrow bandwidths with leading parametrics...etc. Anyway... too much on Saturday and too little next week ... nuances that need to be overcome.

I see that kind of head scratch all the time in general graphics ... I always just sort of assumed it's a resolution issue. As far as the UKMET, I don't really use those products - pretty much ever ... - as their stinginess to allow general access when the fact of the matter is, all over modeling tech is competitive if not superior in some aspects, puts me off on them. Still, that strikes me as one graphic system "estimating" based on a coarser resolution, whereas the other being finer meshed ...etc etc.

it's a red flag ...always has been with that model system and handling these west atlantic scenarios

It was 64.6 degrees as 1:32 pm on March 28th up on the Wx Lab monitor at UML, 1997 3 days later, there was a 18" of blue glory ...with 30" across Metro west of Boston

trending toward sooner amplitude - im sure you can see that just sayn'

Meeting captive at work but that ICON solution at 500 mb argues for a capture/stall/pummel scenario for somewhere

Oh I know really i’m not that sensitive lol. But this I think was a good course work in a sense of recognition … if get into the Saturday thing it confuses that intention? We can repurpose too if we must. Saturdays thing may also be more of a threat for New Jersey New York City area but I’m sure we have shared interest people.

EPS ends up here though... That's D7 with an attempt at digging under L.I. ... and this is a defined deepening trend spanning several cycles as of 00z. In other words it may yet dig another 2 deg latitude. This is very close to being April 97 -like (not claiming analog - just at a glance).

I would prefer starting a new thread for that altogether... This wasn't intended to storm-specific effort - if folks need to allow this one to scroll that's fine. It seems to have made the points that it was intended for.

It actually was more aggressive ... but latter timing. The 12z blend is 998-ish... this 00z was < 994 but some 12 hours later. The blend also hints at a capture scenario ... you can sense that in the loop as a low hesitation after attempting a dove tail motion toward a more N direciton leading - Just some details I noticed... It's a higher implication totality

all synoptic metrics included I consider that run a blue bomb

I get the spectrum of emotions... But this thread's coverage was intended for a course work in the potential and pattern recognition, and it was stated in bold, raised font that this was no declaration for a major storm. Rather, to raise the awareness as to the former. Since then, these two systems have emerged. This thread itself ...not sure it should be deemed as a failure. The failure is allowing one's assumption of satisfaction to overwhelm - Part of the problem is... pattern recognition is a bit of an art ... one that unfortunately doesn't actually pin point people's pleasures. Haha.. That'd be a neat trick. This is/was and will be an eastern N/A middle latitude risk assessment - within which we unfortunately roll the dice. Now... it is certainly climatologically true to say that those dice rolls tend to hit from the M/A to the B.M. but ... frankly, that probably why the EPS and GEFs spent time suggesting Saturday would be just like the EPS looks now, for next Tuesday. and on and so on

You really want to push that ahead another 12 to 18 hours.. That's an exceptional signal for this range ... for a multitude of implications that the above (only thru 1 am on Tuesday) don't include. Such as the cinema demos western spread of very deep members. The depth at by latter Tuesday. Only slow motion once that is achieved as an east drifter ... these are suggestive of some sort of collation with the deep layer vortex/capture scenario because that performance suggests there is a significant number of members that stall while fusion takes is takes place. So... then looking the basic 850mb and 2-meter temperature metrics ...they are sufficiently cold enough in a marginal - space that there's higher than climate probability for a large winter p-type impact and on and so on - mind you ... in deference to this 00z EPS

Truth be told … I just get aggravated by the imbyism. I’m seeing two storms as being likely to be caused by this descent into an active pattern. One seems more apt to affect SNE … doesn’t mean this thread, or anyone’s contribution within it, failed. In fact quite the opposite. Im not sure I trust the NAM for amplitude at this range. But the blend may bring accumulating snow to the upper MA for sat. I also maintain only cautious optimism for next week, pending a little more continuity then I’ve seen so far

It’s not fact and you’re making shit up to make your point I can get the charts and prove it to you if you want no actually I’m not gonna do that I’m fucking had it with you people

Truth is large number of you really can’t be held mentally responsible because you are mentally unstable … how fortunate the Internet was invented so you can hide from reality in here and other social media platforms I’m sure

And that seems reasonable to you?

Carried out for 2 1/2 to 3 days

Well... I start threats for interesting signals and the prospect of interesting Meteorology - nothing else. I always have. Frankly... since no one in modernity really advocates for others in this day and age, I will say this on my own behalf, I think my record over the years is clad. What did I put in bold at the beginning of this thread, "A major event is not a declarative here; however, we are in a highly prone scenario between the 10th and 15th of the month. The idea for this is an early thread for general awareness" I'm not sure how that warrants reproach and bad rep but ... this is often like the rabble below the balcony of an old English courtyard ...packed with throngs of "super enlightened" thinkers ...

So this thread will make actually getting a storm out of the 'critical period' to happen - hey...whatever works. I think now would be a great time for Saturday to come back and end up being that event. I would only caution that back on the 3rd, the EPS mean looked virtually the same as what you are seeing now for this 2nd possibility we've been tracking for Tuesday, for this Saturday. Not sure I see a compelling reason at this time why Tues should be stirring more optimism or confidence. Both Saturday, and that latter one are within a particularly suggestive telecon indication as we've outlined already. That should offer some confidence above climatology. It may also be helpful to Tues if Saturday does not have some kind of transitive effect on wave-spacing. Best way to do that is to keep it weak.

Whaaa lol I really have only started 3 ...maybe 4 threads this whole season. One covered an event that resulted in a N/A historic bomb. The other was the snow storm that just impacted parts of the forum .. .and now this one,. I think the winter its self was cooked from the start. Not many reasons to start threads.

Seems like if you took all the least impacting versions off every model going back 3 or so days, and blended just those ... that blend is exactly what happens.

Guys... the NAM has a consummate NW placement, and amplitude bias, at any range beyond 48 hours.

Yeah ... relative to climate. I mean there is a standard "storm in march" metric... It's probably better to think of it as a PWAT anomaly, now that I think about it

still...that 03/03 EPS mean for the (likely...) failed outlook for Saturday, is not hugely different circumstantially to what this present EPS mean looks like at 180 hours... I get why others are nearing patience with this ... but, the period of interesting is still the 10th through the ides - so in the objective sense. ... tough shit. it either will or will not take advantage in that time range - and all the antecedent consternation and personal d-drip withdrawal angst in the world is not logic or rationale for claiming it won't. Sorry. It just ain't