Harry

16 minutes ago, beavis1729 said:

I would throw out (or at least asterisk) the warm DJFs from the 1800s, as the official measurements were influenced heavily by the downtown and/or lakeside location. Similar to Logan Airport for Boston. 
 

That’s why 5 of the top 6 warmest DJFs occurred in the late 1800s. It’s not as if all of those winters were warmer than some of our recent clunkers, apples to apples. 
 

Regardless, this list highlights how bad the winter climo is for downtown Chicago. It’s already bad enough inland…

I know 1877-78 was a very toasty winter across the region. The numbers I recal seeing for Lansing ( been a long time since I saw them ) was crazy. 

9 minutes ago, frostfern said:

You really want to lose power?  I really don’t see the snow line getting south of I-96.  Its either ice or plain rain south of I-94.  I’ll be happy to eat my words as another south shift would put me in the solid snow zone as opposed to sleet.  I-94 zone is f*ed if it stays below freezing.  Good luck.☹️

Oh I certainly won't mind getting into the all rain zone. Having been around long enough I have seen sytems like this before take a decent shift in both directions inside of 48hrs. Much depends on where that front ends up, strength of high to north and how strong the first low is. With this we may not know till the 12z runs tomorrow as far as what kind of trend/adjustment we get. I suspect we will. Always do with these set ups. 

Sitting at 57.8" for the winter here. Can thank the lake for most of it. 

7 minutes ago, Lightning said:

We need that Josh magnet to start working!!!  

I need to find the one I had. Lol Truthfully though considering what areas outside the lake zones have seen snowfall isn't that far off the mark of where it should be for here. Still that ice I have no use for especially not the amounts some of the models have been showing. 

I am here to get a south trend started. I hope.. Ofcourse I wouldn't mind getting deep into the warm sector either.  

1 minute ago, WestMichigan said:

I hadn't heard he retired.  He was writing AFD's not that long ago.  That is a loss for the office for sure.

That it is. A huge loss imo. However I see on his FB page he has started his own blog. 

15 minutes ago, WestMichigan said:

yeah, a little odd for them but they do tend to go with the most GRR centric model

Sadly on another note the best they had there ( WDM ) has retired. 

6 minutes ago, WestMichigan said:

yeah, a little odd for them but they do tend to go with the most GRR centric model

That they do. It's like they have no shame. Ofcourse having followed them for well over a decade there certainly no accountability there either. 

And the goofballs at GRR are basically riding the NAM. 

10 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

I'm still in single digits for snowfall.  Pretty crazy.  You're not located THAT far from me.  Undoubtedly the lake has helped you out quite a bit.

Yes the lake has. See that November Les event then Christmas. Without that lake..

Not to shabby here with 6.5 and the added bonus with the track further north is the flow backed quicker for LES to come out this way. Now have another advisory for up to 4 inches which will put the seasonal total over 50". 

Hope all has been well with everyone. 

19 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Went to a restaurant for dinner and there were literally 2 other people eating in there.  

People have gotten soft.  Ooh, a little snow in northwest Indiana.  The horror.

Why would anyone go out in this garbage especially to eat? Ofcourse around here it doesn't seem to stop people from getting out. Funny enough as I am typing this they said on the radio the state police are advising people from traveling i94!because of the amount of accidents they have going on from about here to the Indiana line.. 

The damn winds have done a number on the Les.. What a freaking waste and why I hate wind.. Not enough lake for these winds to pick up decent moisture. 

Really not sure what to expect here? GRR afd mentioned that they expect the highest totals a bit further inland then the November event which means this area would be in that zone. Gut says they upgrade this county to a blizzard warning. 

Think I am gonna faint. They are being proactive here with salt trucks out already..

Snow has begun here! 

27 minutes ago, WestMichigan said:

18Z NAM products increased the total QPF across most of SW Michigan.  Flakes have started but are pretty light so far.

GRR has a nice afd. Wouldn't surprise me to see this county get upgraded to a blizzard warning. Like WDM I as well think the heaviest snows/Les will be further inland because of the stronger winds. 

Goofy models. GFS went from wettest to driest. Euro, nam etc on the uptick.. 

2 minutes ago, beavis1729 said:

Pretty brutal conditions in Williston ND right now. Temp -23 with a sustained 25 mph NW wind, wind chill -55.

The other reason I love the lake. Keeps a lid on temps when that kind of cold pays a visit. Ofcourse anything below zero feels brutal.. 

6 hours ago, Chicago WX said:

 

2000

It was a much simpler time. All we had was the ETA, NGM, AVN, MRF, GGEM...and the Euro ran once a day at 3:00 AM, with like 5 available layers (no QPF). Things have certainly changed. 

I miss the NGM. Because when that showed anything half decent you knew something was coming considering it's dry nature. See PDII when I was living in Ohio which is not long after I joined. 

9 minutes ago, frostfern said:

Non-lake-effect big-dogs are rare as they are in most places in the Midwest.  Chicago has been more lucky the past decade as far as getting the bullseye on the larger storms, but that wasn't always the case.

Truthfully I haven't done too bad considering the climb of the region. One 21, and two 18 events and a number of 12+. Just wish the 21 was later in the season vs November. 

3 minutes ago, mimillman said:

Gonna be a pretty stellar LE event for SW Michigan any way you slice it. I can’t remember the last comparable event they’ve had 

November? Gonna be hard to top that around here atleast.. Initially atleast the winds may prevent better banding. 

2 minutes ago, Harry Perry said:

This. 
 

Albeit the November LES event was the most impressive I recall in recent times (over a foot of pure LES), this system will only enhance totals, but it’ll be interesting to measure. Think that might be a problem with 50mph gusts.

Yeah such strong winds may disrupt the bands. I think our best window is Sat afternoon/Night. 

16 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Was thinking back on stuff lately.  Remember that period of time when we were in charge at WWBB?  God that was so long ago.  

Omg.. 20years? Or very close to it. 

The past few years feel as if I have gone back 25+ years. Doing stuff I was doing then but perhaps a little harder. Been slowing it down a bit though lately.. 

3 minutes ago, Stevo6899 said:

I dont know exactly what happened but we've all been on here long enough, why can't we all just chill, get along, and mesh together. There's no room for sensitivity, and everyone should be okay with someone calling them out, hashing it out, and moving on. Maybe that's why we can't get a good snow, the juju on here is throwing it off. Life's short, let the past be the past and let's enjoy talking weather with each other. Let's not complicate it.

I can totally agree with that. Trust me on this. I have had a very rough time of it the last 7+ years. Not easy sometimes to let go but especially in my case ( health wise ) I have done just that. Had too.  Dealt with heart issues ( widow maker which resulted in double bypass surgery July 6, 2015), had my house shot up ( via ak 47 ) with 18 rounds just missing me by a foot, etc. I could probably write a couple of best sellers on just the last three years alone.. 

So don't you go anywhere! 

3 minutes ago, WestMichigan said:

Which way do you think it will go?

Hard to say? Been gone too long and have not paid close enough attention to the models and their trends? A question of which is off or if both are off? These types of storms are rare around here as is.

4 minutes ago, Stevo6899 said:

As always, gonna come down to now casting with the timing of it bombing. Id say even detroit is still in the ballgame for the bigger snows, altho areas already outlined looks good.

Yep. I agree on all points.