Harry

On 9/29/2022 at 12:51 PM, Hoosier said:

Agree that a 30" storm is doable in Chicago.  We have seen it in other spots in the sub.  And yeah, would probably need all of those factors or at least no more than 1 of them missing.

Yep! Jan 67 in the far nw corner of town over into the NE part of Kalamazoo county around Gull Lake which ended up the bullseye of the storm with 31" inches. So yeah I think 30+ is very doable around Chicago. Total for here was 28.6"! 

Btw.. A repeat of that would do for me. 

Never thought I would see the day I would have to wear a jacket in the first part of August but that day has arrived. 50s most of the afternoon after the rain arrived. High only made it to 62 and if that holds it will be a new record. Old was 63.. 

11 minutes ago, SolidIcewx said:

Don’t look like it will build more into Michigan it seems

Unless something else pops further NW it looks like a wrap except for the border counties. May get clipped here but even that is iffy at this point. That storm coming into South Haven may just slide by to the south of here. I have seen more then enough hail and wind events the past few years so I am okay with it missing here. Plus too many tall trees behind my house next to the power lines.. 

On 4/14/2022 at 4:52 PM, WestMichigan said:

Hit 58 about and hour ago. Crazy winds for sure.

Highest gust here ( and in the GRR area ) ended up being 66mph. Crazy for sure. Nearly hit 50mph a couple of hours ago. 

1 hour ago, WestMichigan said:

Gust to 48 so far at my house.  Expecting higher gusts later based on what is happening west of here.

Gust to 58 down this way so far. 

5 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

This is not my picture, but a friend posted this. Really tells the tale of yesterday (high/low 46/14).

That is how it looked here yesterday. A quick couple inches. A snowy March so far. Seasonal total for here officially at 66.3 which is a inch above normal. 

Hope all has been well with everyone! 

1 minute ago, Frog Town said:

Last part of this in Southern Michigan is falling apart and going to under perform.  Sorry.  

It has finally started to ramp up here. Not sure how long it will last though? The decent stuff does seem to weaken ( per radar ) as it approaches. Ofcourse I am having to go by iwx radar with GRR being down. 

Best rates of the day so far. Probably near 1/2 inch a hr? Wind makes it near impossible to measure. 

13 minutes ago, Stebo said:

GFS keeps moving south, what a garbage system and/or garbage model.

Yep. Garbage all the way. System and model. 

Spring ( real spring that is. Not 40s cloudy and rain ) cannot get here fast enough. 

11 minutes ago, Harry Perry said:

Those rates would be niiiiice.

I’m 33 and think the biggest system I can recall is GHDII. Seems like there were big ones all the time when I was young, but when you’re only 3’ tall… doesn’t take much to have snow up to your knees. 

 

But yeah, this system… this one is exciting. Loved how GRR stated this to be a high end advisory yesterday, yet issued a warning today and will likely bust (unless these short range ensembles are correct). They’ll never issue a watch or warning here again. Ever.  
 

Lol. You got that right with GRR. Ofcourse the amounts shown by them ( unless something has changed? ) are not warning amounts anyways. Thought I recall 8+ in 12hrs was the criteria here? 

Anyways this has turned into a huge turd and as said can keep going south and totally miss as far as I am concerned. Ofcourse I know it won't and there will be just enough to screw up the roads etc. 

18 minutes ago, Powerball said:

Heck, I think I've only seen Hail maybe 3 times with a thunderstorm. Two of those times it was stray stones mixed in with rain.

And as far as thundersnow, I've only seen it 2 times (one of which was with a LES squall).

I'm not exactly a spring chicken either.

Severe wx and especially hail I cannot complain about here as far as hail and high winds go. Ofcourse tornadoes can stay away. Lol  but yeah there has been a few decent hailers the past 5 years or so here. One hailer did 1,000s in damage to my vehicle though. Thank you insurance. This place does decent with wind and hail. 

Thundersnow is awesome especially if you are outside when it happens. My first experience with it was with what was called the megalopolis Strom in Feb 1983. Over 20 imby with that. Talk about being wowed when that happened. Besides that it was a daytime event as well. 

Not hard to see why I kinda vanished. Same crap different year. BORING! 

There is nothing worth getting excited over with winter weather in this area. It is nearly the same exact results with every system in this region. No big dogs ever and thus 18+ unless you wanna go back 40+ years here. Oh they have happened but have affected a very few across the region as a whole. Over performing decent events (10+) near impossible. Cannot even recall the last time a advisory event ended up a warning and thus a advisory that over performed and ended up a warning level event. Nearly everything ( 8+ ) on models inside of 36-48 hrs ends up under performing. Not all but most. Forget 12+. 

Ofcourse climo doesn't lie. I think having Jan 67 and 78 here ( Was no such event back to 1890s ) did the deed. 2 100+ year events in the span of 11 years has mostly likely put the cap on seeing a repeat ( 24+.. heck probably can just say 20+ ) for the next 60-100+ years. So yeah gotta get use to climo here and keep expectations very low. Ofcourse again that's boring. 

These annoying 2-4/3-5 events ( and smaller ) do zero for me unless it's like 13-14 and building on deep snows already on the ground. It's nice for early season first snow but that's about it. 

But yeah this south trending crap to south of here needs to cease. I would rather a nw trend and miss to the nw with all rain. 

22 minutes ago, Harry Perry said:

Seems like this didn’t happen as much growing up, but I remember a few times where 6-10” was forecast and woke up to less than a dusting on the ground.

There is people around here 40 years old who have never seen a 18+ event. That's crazy. PD I ( Feb 79 east coast ) is what got me going. Ofcourse there was more like it after till I left in 2002 and has been more to this day. Oh what I wouldn't give to see 2-3 inch hr rates again for more then 5 minutes. 

This was never modeled to be a big dog but damn. 

Long live 13-14 and GHD ll. Ofcourse that event that a few days out I do recall models showing 20+ across this area. I still have alot of the model output for that on my computer. 

2 minutes ago, Harry Perry said:

I don’t know… this smells like a bust around here. 

I could not imagine having to spend my whole life here. Ofcourse I doubt I would have had as much interest in this stuff if I had grown up here. This same crap results gets very boring. 

11 minutes ago, Stevo6899 said:

 I think it's been happening a lot recently because these low pressure systems are being shunted to the East so quickly and aren't being allowed to close off and go negative tilt. Lower the chances for big snows when they cant amplify and slow down.

Typical mw garbage. 

This south trending bs needs to cease! 

As far as this crapfest storm  goes it may as well keep going south and miss. Had enough of these just enough to screw up the roads etc systems to last a lifetime! 

Hopefully the rain tonight can wash away the rest of the crap ( sheets of ice now was snow ) on the ground. 

Just now, Stevo6899 said:

 It's hilarious every time they are bullish (rare), the storm ends up underwhelming.  Now watch this time they'll be conservative and we'll get over a foot.

Well the GFS has gone in that direction big time! 

Just now, Stevo6899 said:

Were reelin er in eh?

Yep. Me and Josh using the magnet powers. 

GFS ensembles south as well. 

5 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Still gotta think we will eventually get a north bump from the Euro, even if it's 25-50 miles.  I refuse to believe that the NAM/GFS could have blown THAT badly 

It did it with the last storm. Held onto those crazy high totals till about this time from the event. Look at GHD lll storm thread 2. 

But yeah it would be nice to see the euro bump north a little. 

9 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

18z GFS going to bump SE.

And by a bit at that.. 

Just now, Natester said:

GFS still north of the NAM.

 But south of prior runs and now alot closer to the others. 

Had a feeling it would cave. Not as far south as euro but alot closer then it was. 

1 minute ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said:

GRR punting watches to morning

In this case I can't say I blame them. 

12 minutes ago, frostfern said:

I would take that, but even GRR is now saying the GFS is overdone and going with a lower compromise forecast for the grids. 

They may have said that in afd but check out zones further Se of Grand Rapids. The highest totals are still up that way ( 3-5 up there vs 1-4 along I94 ) which basically follows the GFS line of thinking. Just that they are way to low across the board which is very typical of this office sadly. 

It amazes me how a number of them ( there is a couple of people there who is very good at this stuff ) have kept thier job for as long as they have. Ofcourse some of them do alot better with severe and other weather stuff vs winter. 

And GFS goes southbound and a bit drier.. 

37 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Honestly I think they're both (GFS and Euro) gonna cave toward each other.  The spread between them is so big right now that it's a little hard to imagine one of them nailing it.  And as said, the EPS is a red flag for me that something north of the current op Euro is very much in play.

Almost forgot. I do agree on the compromise. 

Just now, McHenrySnow said:

No.

He is from southern Indiana.. 

10 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Honestly I think they're both (GFS and Euro) gonna cave toward each other.  The spread between them is so big right now that it's a little hard to imagine one of them nailing it.  And as said, the EPS is a red flag for me that something north of the current op Euro is very much in play.

It's comical watching them hold so hard. I did a comparison of the latest euro ensembles ( vs 18z ) and it is identical right down to this small gap ( between higher totals ) running across my backyard. Wish I could figure how to post them side by side. Never seen anything like it.