Harry

6 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

That's a little risky imo, especially given that the EPS has consistently been north of the op Euro.  I feel like the course of least regret would be a compromise of some kind, but not overweighting the op Euro.

Yep. As mentioned earlier I think one of them caves by/at 12z runs later on. We'll see. Was around same time it happened with GHD lll. 

1 minute ago, Stevo6899 said:

The GFS has been amped and too far Northwest with alot of storms in recent years, including within 72 hrs. I think most offices will lean towards the euro.

Gut tells me GRR will ride the GFS. They tend to ( not always but usually ) follow whatever model ( GFS vs euro situation ) has the highest snowfall over the office and the GFS has that. Not saying if it's right or wrong but that's how they usually roll at this office. 

1 minute ago, Stevo6899 said:

Euro locked in consistently with its track. Another gfs vs euro showdown. 

It's crazy especially for being this close in . 

I think we should know for sure by the 12z run tomorrow. I know it was around this time ( see GHD lll storm thread 2 ) the GFS pulled the backing off stunt with that event. 

8 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

Tim, Hoosier, and Josh have collectively stolen Geos' snow magnet. 

This stuff today puts the seasonal total just over the 50 mark which is very close to normal for this date. 

Yeah the GFS can suck it with that ice. 

Go north or south I don't care but not that crap. Thankfully far enough out that one or the other is almost a given. I suspect it will end up a bit further south in the end. Just not sure how much further south? 

6 minutes ago, dilly84 said:

I lived in Fredericktown when I first join then moved back to warsaw(coshocton county) and bought a house in apple valley, been here for 6 years. Yes ripping now, only took all day to change over. Watching sleet line creeping back hoping since it's snowing so hard it's enough to keep it snow

I got married down there in Howard. Hopefully that sleet crap goes back south. Can't recall that happening and thus doing a full reversal?  Usually when that gets se it stays there. Slp looks to pass far enough east in WV so not sure what's up with that? Getting some mood flakes up here from it but that's it. 

6 minutes ago, dilly84 said:

Hey you lived in my neck of the woods. Was gonna ask about you the other day

Mt. Vernon! Guessing it is ripping there? I vanished for a little while. A ton going on ( still do ) but slowing some. Had major heart surgery a few years back which I healed well from.  So yeah all is better! 

Grr updated. Final snowfall total and map. Lansing with 13.3 is largest daily snowfall record for Feb. Pretty impressive considering how far back the records go for that location.  Officially here 10.0 but ala the observer is well outside of town at the county line with Barry. Still it fits the area totals of 9-12.. 

Congrats on the dumping guys! 

I am pulling hard for Cincy in the SB! 

52 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Records fell like domino's in 2013-14. But in terms of snowSTORM records, we just had the 3rd largest snowstorm in 2015. I foresee us eventually knocking over 2nd place, the 1974 storm, but I really doubt we ever touch the 1886 storm. Which was in April of all things.  I really doubt you will ever surpass the 1967 or 1978 storm either, but you should be able to make a run at your 3rd.

I agree about here especially that 67 record. But that record there and when it happened ( as you said so late in season ) is why I feel that is long overdo to fall. I am certain there will be another 67 qpf bomb in the region but who gets those insane amounts is the question. I doubt it will be here. Ofcourse that storm had temps in the 50s ( near 60 ) the day before here. A bit more warmth and stronger high to the east and we may have pulled it off again with this. Ofcourse I think that storm that rode up that front in 67 was a bit stronger too. One of the others around here probably knows those details better?  

Either way I think Detroit has  better odds then most think of nailing that record.. Jmho

Got some mood flakes here and there but that's about it. 

1 minute ago, Stevo6899 said:

Records aint gonna fall as long we live here. Maybe its us and we should move.

I have thought that because yeah records have fallen in every direction from here except east along I94 to Detroit since my first winter here in 04-05. 

It really is like pulling teeth to get a really good quality storm here. 

Thought we would make a run at a foot but fell short a little with 10.5. Disappointed because I missed the best rates here being stuck in Kalamazoo till the afternoon. 

In the end another typical higher end storm for this region and nothing really to write home about imby. Our computer models still have a ways to go especially where handling stuff up in Canada/pole goes. 

The rarity of this storm is how widespread the 6+ amounts will be. Hope someone does a final map that includes everything from the whole thing 

Should do a poll to see when everyone thinks the older snowstorm records fall at Detroit, Here and or wherever they are 50+ years old. My belief is this record here will be standing long after I am gone. Detroit has a much better shot at it. Ofcourse it may not seem that way to those living there but that damn record if I recall is 140 yrs old so that sucker is long overdo to fall. 

Left Battle Creek around 6:30 am with about 2.5 on the ground. In Kalamazoo till the afternoon. Was about the same on the ground when I arrived here. 

Changeover here not expected till 2-3am.. 

2 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Surprised we kept as much snow as we did after hitting 46 with some sun.

My hope is the rain finishes it off.. Sunny spots is gone. Just the shaded spots were left.

Rain has fired up here! 

Hoping with the warmer temps that has wiped most of the snow cover away aids in slowing the front etc down and thus allows for a further nw adjustment.  

Till the GFS or euro start making a decent shift nw I am not biting on the short range stuff and time is running out. 

Just can't get that damn GFS to come back nw fast enough! 

3 minutes ago, frostfern said:

I don't know how many people who post are old enough to remember 1978.  I always see these pictures of what looks like three feet of snow and drifts up to the roofs of cars but it seems misleading.  My folks don't remember the details, but they seem to imply that there was a already a decent amount of snow on the ground before the storm.  It would be like if you combined the constant clipper trains of Jan/Feb 2014 with GHD 1.  GHD 1 happened after a cold and dry January with otherwise below normal snowfall.  I imagine if there was already quite a bit of snow on the ground that was still powdery enough to blow and added whatever 12-18" fell in that particular storm you'd get those kind of drifts you see in pictures that give the illusion it snowed 6 feet.  People you talk to still seem to think it snowed 2 feet in that storm when in reality it didn't.  It never has snowed 2 feet in 24 hours.

Total for Jan 67 was 28.6. storm total not daily total which I posted. 

21.1 on Jan 26 and 7.5 on Jan 27. Qpf total was amazing with 2.86! Rare beast for this part of the world. Straight 10-1 ratios.. 

Keep in mind probably have had many of storms that say started at noon and finished noon the next day. 

2 minutes ago, frostfern said:

Midnight to midnight is a weirdly arbitrary figure though.  I'd just like to see the number of times an accumulation over 12" happens in any 24 hour period.  GHD 1 was the last event I can recall that pulled that off in GRR.  It gets rare as soon as you get east of the major NW flow lake effect belts.  Biggest totals here are mostly synoptic / lake-effect combos that occur over a 48-72 hour period.  It's just not the same is when it comes down heavy all at once.  GHD 1 was special because the bulk of it came down in under 12 hours with a lot of wind to push it around.  Closest thing I've seen to something you would see on the east coast.

Yeah it is rare to get that in this part of the world.. 

Guess I am gonna have to do some research because here in Battle Creek the only two I am certain that pulled it off I mentioned already. 

7 minutes ago, WestMichigan said:

Going back to the previous thread there was a discussion on 12" storms.  Here is GRR's numbers on that from their afternoon AFD.

One other point I want to make is, looking at our climate data for
frequencies of a foot or more of snow at Kalamazoo, Battle Creek
and Jackson, getting a foot or more from midnight to midnight is a
rare event. At Jackson, since 1944, there have been only 3 such
events, 16 inches in March 1973 being the greatest, and 14 inches
in in late January 1978 (blizzard of 78 fame) and early January
in 1999. For Kalamazoo, the record as 18 inches in the blizzard of
1978, then there was 16 inches in December 1907, and 13 inches in
mid January of 1979. Our grid point snow total is 12.5 inches for
Jackson, 11.7 for Kalamazoo and 12.3 for Battle Creek. If this
actually happens it would be a top 4 event for all 3 of these
sites.

Yeah he forgot to add in Battle Creek. The two I know of are Jan 67 with 21.1 and Jan 78 with 18.0 and both are Jan 26th.