Harry

9 minutes ago, Harry Perry said:

Harry I believe your snow magnet worked because it would appear the models have honed in on the jackpot zone being between my place and your place.

Wish the model was correct with the temps which it shows them dropping to freezing the moment the precip arrives and then goes a bit below till the precip starts to wind down and the temps go back slightly above.. If it is/was right we could eclipse the foot mark easily. 

NAM looking like it has finally caved to the more southerly track. 

12 minutes ago, Owensnow said:

00Z HRRR going north 975mb

 

 

I'll take that and run. Total qpf nearing the 1.75 line.... 

Basically makes a jog north to Sandusky from Dayton vs 12z which took it from Dayton to just south of Mansfield and on to Cleveland. 

8 minutes ago, tim123 said:

18z euro?

By the looks of it it has come back a little to the nw. 

4 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

Huge win for the canadian really

Yeah.. That never did go north did it? 

Now watch the 00z make that jump.. lol

17 minutes ago, Harry said:

The closest storm I can think of compared to this would be Vets day 87. Mid Atlantic.. Was expecting a snow/rain mix but it flipped to a heavy wet snow and dropped 12-18. Never seen snow melt so fast as that did either. Was gone within two days. 

Reminder we don't have the Atlantic ocean nearby so totals like that are highly doubtful. Was just speaking on the temp profiles and such. 

The closest storm I can think of compared to this would be Vets day 87. Mid Atlantic.. Was expecting a snow/rain mix but it flipped to a heavy wet snow and dropped 12-18. Never seen snow melt so fast as that did either. Was gone within two days. 

1 minute ago, Harry Perry said:

So. True. 

They have the “Since we here at the NWS GRR Office will not be receiving the brunt of the storm, we will go with an inch or less for the county entire area” attitude. 

Oh yeah I have seen them do that as well on more then one occasion. 

Don't forget that great bearier aka 131 where nothing gets past it via the lake. 

1 minute ago, BrewCrewMI said:

GRR mentions models still outputting anywhere from 0 to 15".

Cluster.

Like the NAM they remain defiant. It's killing them that the heaviest snows may go se of Grand Rapids. They are perhaps the most imby weenie office on planet Earth. Lol

3 minutes ago, Powerball said:

Also January 1999.

Yep that too. 

4 minutes ago, frostfern said:

It just seems that Chicago and Detroit are usually in completely different storm track lanes.  Usually if Chicago gets clobbered, somewhere in SW MI will also cash in.  The exact bullseye depends on the track of course.

GHDll is probably the closest for all sharing in the decent totals I think? 

2 minutes ago, Chicago WX said:

Jan 1979?

That was decent here. 14-15 or something like that? I was living in the DC area back then but we had PDl! 

4 minutes ago, frostfern said:

SW MI folks are usually allied with N IL folks.  Except for the weird zonal track systems.

It can depend. Jan 67 is best example of sharing in the glory. Jan 78 was more here. GHDI was more there to Grand Rapids. GHDII was a bit more here. 

1 minute ago, Cary67 said:

Nah, in all honesty hope you guys in SEMI receive a thumping. Would be a terrible waste of tracking for everyone to be shut out 

I am more SW Michigan. But thanks! I still wouldn't rule anything out just yet. 

2 minutes ago, Cary67 said:

18Z NAM( Not Always Michigan) model remains defiant

So what your saying is GFS = Good For Shit? 

30 minutes ago, sbnwx85 said:

 

@Baumcan we lock this in? My point and click is at 5"-9". The mets at my TV station (aka work) were still going with a broad 2"-4" across the area this morning. I wonder if they'll bump it up this afternoon. 

Lock it! 

19 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

Last 3 runs of the GEFS 24-hour 10:1 snowfall mean.

Edit: Added 00z GEFS members. Pretty large spread this close to the event.

I like where a majority of them sit. Still nail biting though. 

7 minutes ago, Chicago916 said:

Meanwhile the Ukie doesn't even have any precipitation in Chicago and points North

Well we now have our new  southern outlier.

Will be interesting to see the latest MJO forecast in a little bit. 

4 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

Last 3 runs of the GEFS 24-hour 10:1 snowfall mean.

Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk
 

You know I see a storm like this and can't help to wonder about that Jan 67 event which basically featured borderline temps here with straight 10-1 ratios ( 28.6 snowfall and 2.86 qpf ) yet a incredible ice storm not more then 30 miles to the south? How do you get as much ice as I hear fell just south of here while temps was near 32 with incredible snowfall amounts here? Was zero snow on the ground for many miles in both directions as we just had record breaking warmth just before the storm. I wish more studies was done on this. 

11 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

We're actually technically not supposed to put the totals in the watch text products, according to NWS directives. However, the simplified formatter we went to 4-5 years ago spits out the deterministic ranges and most offices leave them. I think we (at LOT) usually change it to snow totals of 6 inches or more are possible.

The unusual watch and warning issuance on the same calendar day is looking likely for this event.

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Talk about a lower then normal confidence level with snowfall amounts etc. I admit I am questioning the 1.50+ amounts some of these models keep pumping out such as this latest gfs. With relying on dynamic cooling precip rates will play a larger then romal role on snowfall amounts. 

I tip my hat to you guys having to put your necks out there for the general public who doesn't understand all the intangibles with a event like this. 

Yeah the snowfall/qpf maps look good here with room to spare but it wouldn't take very much to change the outcome. 

Oh an I highly doubt such totals are realized. 

Thus the thing about borderline thermo events. Any little deviation can have a big impact especially if you are riding that liquid/white line. Ugh.. 

GFS seems to go more west to east till just east of here? Snowfall maps ( 10.1 they claim ) actually ticked up a bit between here and SB? Solidly in the 15+ range with the 18+ now just to my sw? Lost a little on the east side of the state by the river? Crazy.. 

1 minute ago, Stebo said:

There is one short range model that I watch because its been very good, the RDPS(RGEM).

Yep. I always forget about that. It has also served well for Les events around here. One of the few to nail the November Les event here.