Iceagewhereartthou

I don't do much myself given my lawn situation; just a little right up around the house. I used to just chop them with my mower but I've been pushing the last few years after my rider pooped out on me. My little boy loves to rake leaves (God Bless him!) so I'll take advantage of that while I can.

So a double low and that high is TOTALLY different. Make that 1032 and we've got something. It's fantasy land anyway but fun to look at and analyze.

I hear you. I think I still have yet to mow Dec, Jan, Feb, mostly because I refuse to, and also b/c I don't have a true lawn and can get away with it. So many trees keep me from having to mow a ton anyway. We didn't have peak leaf season this year until nearly Thanksgiving, by far the latest I've ever seen. If this keeps up our trees won't have to drop leaves anymore and (while tragic) at least we'll get out of raking!

That is a thing of beauty, no doubt. It really is too bad such setups and storms are so rare around here. I think we all know there's almost no chance a storm, even remotely, like this will happen, but it does show potnetial for the upcoming time period for something. Let's hope most of us will see snow sometime over the next few weeks.

That Low is in a PERFECT spot for many. Too bad that High isn't placed better. Love to see highs over NE and NY with that low placement!

I'll completely pass on an ice storm. If its sleet that's fine and I'll take that but no zr. Zr is pretty for a but you can have zero fun with it. Jus the leaves a mess with no redeeming quality. Snow, sleet, or nothing please.

I'd give up any and all snow for quite awhile to see that evil team go down. GEAUX LSU!

It looks like that curves back into the circle, then probably back into phases 3 and 4, completely bypassing the colder phases of 8,1, and 2 no? That's not at all what we want to see going into Feb. Just a couple days ago we saw it modeled with a much wider arc into 7 looking to go into 8. If this is correct well have a very short window and that could be it.

Just my two cents on the upcoming possible pattern change; love the trends and we've certainly waited for our turn. Couple things I'm looking for; really interested to see where the southeast ridge and resulting storm track sets up; that's been a huge deal breaker for us for years now. Lots of Highs showing up on maps for that time period, as many as 6 or 7 on some maps. That would really lend itself to overrunning Miller A types which would help more of the board, so lets see if that continues. Also, I'm temepering any excitement until at least Wed of next week. Let's get the time period within 5 days to get a better sense of where we're heading. Track on.

I know a lot of us will be watching ahead looking for the possible pattern change, but man, oh man, at the coming setup. NWS has my low over the next 7 days at 51! Not sure I've ever seen a week like this in January before, at least not for that long of a stretch. Highs 15-20 above normal and lows 20-25 above! Severe weather and possible tornadoes for much of the SE, rain and storms all the way from upper midwest through New England. This is totally nuts.

I think the high North of that would be your blocking high with the low you're ralking about acting as the 50/50 low, though it would be better a bit South of there. The high over Maine is the cold air source. One would think the Missouri low would be a bit South of there, or at least push SE from there with the high, though I think we want a high in the 1040 range and the low over LA instead. That particular look (though obviously fantasy at this range) looks to put most of us in the warm sector looking for ZR if anything. IDK, maybe Grit or Wow or someone better than me could chime in?

Yep. Hard to track worms and storms, but I don't think I have ever seen that storm myth pan out.

BTW, I think this is a total myth and there's nothing to it, but thought some of you would appreciate that I saw a woolly worm today. It was black on both ends but sold brown in the middle half. Cold in Nov and cold Feb following warm Dec/Jan?

I think we need that western ridge a little taller and a few hundred miles further west to help dig that low just a bit more. Also, like to see the high hang back a few hundred miles, more in tandem (just ahead of) with the low (maybe back in MIZZ). Actually this would be excellent placement if we had a secondary high back north of the low. This looks in danger of getting pushed out unless that's a 50/50 low in the corner to help keep it anchored. It's also telling that a 1043 is that close yet the 540 bar is barely below. Haven't looked at temps but that tells me it's pretty marginal cold. Awesome to have something at least showing up within the ten day. This will change a hundred times so let's see if we can get this potential to show up inside 5 days.

When clown maps no longer have any pink on them...

My son loves those things, just put some flavoring on em

Good grief That would cause some major problems. At this point I'll take dry over cold.

Here are the January highs and lows for GSP from 2012 (you know, "the worst winter ever"). Some ups and downs but really not that bad. Had a couple of bona fide cold fronts. Actually felt like Jan for a good bit, just no snow. It'll be intersting to see how this Jan compares. an 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 Max Avg Min 56 51.3 46 66 54.7 36 47 35.8 25 56 40.8 25 48 39.7 31 49 40.0 36 48 40.1 34 44 33.5 21 35 26.4 15 32 26.3 24 33 29.3 27 35 26.4 18 38 28.8 20 40 27.6 15 50 36.4 26 53 40.0 29 43 38.1 35 47 39.9 36 60 45.0 34 50 41.9 32 44 36.3 29 41 30.8 25 47 33.3 22 48 37.5 30 39 35.8 31 51 41.0 34 50 37.9 28 57 43.1 32 64 45.5 27 72 56.1 43 51 44.5 41

Good to see, keeping my fingers crossed. It's funny though, even though I know February can be a geat Winter month, I've been so jaded by the past few that I have no confidence it will be anything other than Spring. May Februrary 2020 be the one to restore the confidence!

Yeah, this pattern has been in control for awhile now. Very active STJ farther north bringing endless rain systems through the SE, basically serving as a semi-permanant SER and keeping all cold in the central US and northern Rockies parts of the CONUS. The same patterns are responsible for both the overabundance of rain and total lack of cold. The last two years in particular have been excruciatingly rainy; over 135 inches for me, and more than 200 inches for many mountain locations. This year seems to be starting the same way. The good news is, patterns can't last forever. Maybe we get a change soon, maybe not. But we're very unlikely to get much frozen with the current pattern.

Would indeed. It looks like a system from the 80s or 90s. We're now in the 20s...

One would think that eventually, just on the laws of probability and statistics, or even just "chance" we could get some legitimate winter time with the indeces in our favor. It seems like the patterns we want are just out of step right now. Maybe in a few years the timing will have changed a bit and we'll start to see them (especially -NOA) better aling with winter instead of summer?

And should have been about 24-0. Just being honest here, but I'd take a few snowless winters if that were to happen. That stinkin team has had enough time in the sun; it's time for somebody else, ANYBODY ELSE, to hold the horseshoe (and clover, and rabbit's foot, and ...)! Only problem is, if I pull for LSU then Clemson will win; everybody I pull for either stinks to begin with or stinks it up when I pull for them.

What "dry cold"? The forecast for late next week/weekend shows 60s/40s with showers. TWC shows a cool down starting on the 6th but its only down to low 50s/mid 30s; still above average. Now we are to the point where a cold front doesn't even get us to average. I guess some of us need to face the reality that being able to expect a small snowfall or two each year is a thing of the past. Maybe once every other year or few years we can expect all the stars to align to get a couple of sloppy inches, but yearly snow may not be a reality anymore for many. GSP is the new CAE, which is the new CHS.