Harry Perry

22 minutes ago, Harry said:

Goofy models. GFS went from wettest to driest. Euro, nam etc on the uptick.. 

Never a dull moment. What’s your prediction around our parts? 

4 minutes ago, mimillman said:

Gonna be a pretty stellar LE event for SW Michigan any way you slice it. I can’t remember the last comparable event they’ve had 

This. 
 

Albeit the November LES event was the most impressive I recall in recent times (over a foot of pure LES), this system will only enhance totals, but it’ll be interesting to measure. Think that might be a problem with 50mph gusts.

SREF or die 

Meanwhile 

Don’t throw the towel in yet. This is still 72 hours away. A lot ̶c̶a̶n̶ ̶ WILL change (for better or worse in the next 72 hours) 

Bonus on the GFS, shows a decent clipper on the heals of the departing system. Starts Sunday evening and drops a few more inches across southern Minnesota, most of Iowa, northern Illinois, Indiana. Brings more moisture and lift into the DGZ for the LES belts - even with the disturbance passing south of the lakes, enough to squeeze another 1-3” for western lower Michigan, maybe more. Still a long way off. 

Just now, RogueWaves said:

Almost no difference for far SEMI between Kuchie and SLR. Tells me our snow will be wetter. At least initially. Fluff to follow-on via LM

Yeah, should make a thick crust of ice/slush beneath. Travel will be a nightmare. Nice hearing from you, been a minute.
 

More realistic, though ratios are cut due to high winds shredding the flakes.. 10:1 still snowing. 

For the weenies… 

Definitely a wound up storm but getting weaker on QPF every run. 

With storms of this magnitude, we’re going to see wild fluctuations 96+ hours out. You don’t want to be in the bullseye at the moment. One thing is pretty certain, it’s going to be a massive system. 

Wagons west. 

Really need to get some instability over here.. still socked in with thick low-level clouds. 14z HRRR out to lunch on current convection. 15z has it but doesn’t look to handle it all. 

Didn’t rain here last night, but with strong southerly flow the modified air has settled in here. Dew points were briefly in the upper 50’s this morning, but have only slightly increased to 63° imby at the moment with a stern 15-20mph southerly wind. 18z guidance not handling the surface moisture at all. Plumes all showing 70-74° surface dpoints at the current hour. SB instability obviously not materializing as expected across southern lower Michigan so that’s probably why the slight makes that turn SE, betting that the strongest storms ride that gradient further south and most convection will weaken quickly this side of the lake tonight. 

Had nothing to 45kft tops develop overhead and drop about 10-15 close CG’s.. moved south now we’re getting no rain, but a constant loud rumble and lots of intracloud lightning. Didn’t expect that to materialize, wondering if more will develop and ride the gradient SE. Seeing some development mid lake at the moment.

48 minutes ago, hardypalmguy said:

Barely any thunder here this year.

Same. Had one rumbler about a month ago. Outside of that, nothing.

Yes, thanks OHweather for the discussion and analysis. Great information. 

Will definitely be interesting to watch everything evolve tonight/tomorrow. 

00z HRRR backed off on the squall threat locally. Shows one round of isolated storms around 8pm and another round firing up along the warm front riding southeast (training) around midnight. 

This kinda smells of 5/29/2011.. nasty derecho followed by 90’s with no power. 

Should make for an interesting afternoon.  

Tomorrow afternoon/evening trying to sneak up on us. RAP/NAM show some intriguing soundings with storms firing along the warm front near I-65 northeast to roughly the MI/IN border. 

Mid range/long range solutions backing off on the cooling trend for next week. Was looking like a week or so of 60’s but Euro/GFS has trended toward more 70’s and only one day of 60’s. 

Just got to Sarasota Florida yesterday and we head back next Wednesday.. safe to say that we’re bringing summer with us. Not seeing much in the long range showing a pattern flip back to cold either. Very nice signal, and as I kind of figured - we’ll go from 50’s right to 80’s with a flip of a switch. 

35 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said:

If we are going to have a delayed start to warmer temps, at least we have been consistently cool and delayed with the leaf out. Nothing like a super late season snow falling on leafed out trees. 

True. One good caveat to this prolonged cool spell. 
 

The switch to summer will likely be overnight (or seem to be) this year. We’ll be saying “remember last Monday when it was snowing and 34°?” While it’s 85° under full sun and dew points in the 60’s the following Monday. One can wonder anyway.