Harry Perry

29 minutes ago, ILSNOW said:

18z NAM looks pretty good.

Question for the pros if the NAM or Euro outcomes occur on Friday would the ratios be closer to 10:1 or as crappy as today’s?

Similar to today, but a little closer/better than 10:1 

1 hour ago, SchaumburgStormer said:

Of course the battery in my weather station goes bad tonight. Not going to have any real time backyard obs because I am too lazy and warm to go outside and change it lol 

Ironically enough mine just set off the “low sensor battery” about an hour ago as well. 

Just now, SolidIcewx said:

We will have our shot end of the week. That storm looks gnarly so far. Will see by Wednesday evening what it’s looking like. Lake effect snow machine should kick in once that brutal cold filters in.

I agree, end of the week looks impressive for us.  
 

My point was - in typical GRR fashion, we will be last to jump on the bandwagon for headlines until the event is damn near underway or nearly over - for the first appreciable snowfall of the season.

2 minutes ago, WestMichigan said:

The Euro and GFS ensemble pressure mean has been fairly consistent
of late and suggests that the low will track from near Chicago to
South Haven the northeast to near Saginaw. North of this track,
the precipitation will be mainly snow. South of the track we`ll
see a snow to rain transition. It`s entirely possible that we
could see several inches of snow accumulation difference between
southern Kent and northern Kent county.

looks like GRR is going to have some fun with this forecast. Someone is almost guaranteed to be mad at the weather guy tomorrow. 

Already am. Old trends die hard.

5 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

they pretty much are forced into using the NBM.

Makes sense considering the spread. Chances of an outlier verifying are relatively low. 

Anyone notice the 12z HRRR? Maybe I’m late to the game but… final image of the run 12z Tuesday. 980 with lowering heights directly east. Moving nearly ENE through central Missouri into south central Illinois.
 

Kind of a crapshoot around these parts. Hoping later in the week brings something a little more noteworthy. 
 

Will be fun to watch the evolution of this storm though. 

3 hours ago, A-L-E-K said:

Call looking $$$

5 minutes ago, fluoronium said:

It's weird to see such a lack of cold air to the NW of such a strong January low. Now I personally love wet snow with low ratios, but I fear getting rained out on some of it.

I told myself I wouldn't get so involved in winter model watching after the December 2022 bust here, yet I've been looking at every model run for days on this storm lol

This storm is nothing but high hopes and dreams.

 

Head over to - Winter 2023/24 Medium/Long Range Discussion and check the storm out after…

33 minutes ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said:

Chicago folks reeling this one in unless stuff suddenly changes tomorrow or Sunday 

We’re still 4/5 days out. Too early to be throwing any solution out yet. 

We are still SO far out - no one should have any expectations yet. 
 

It is nice to finally have something to watch though, and to have weenie maps is pure lust. 

1 hour ago, RogueWaves said:

A lot like last March 3rd storm for SEMI

I could certainly see a redux of that storm being the outcome with this one if thermals are marginal. 

2 hours ago, OrdIowPitMsp said:

I’m in some skiing groups on FB and there is already talk of a big dog around 1/9 like it’s set in stone. The average person doesn’t know not to take the GFS verbatim a week out. 

He emphasized on the potential being there for something big and that a lot is to change in the coming days, which I agree with. 

5 hours ago, KokomoWX said:

I know the models are showing a lot of potential in the next couple of weeks but I'm already confident I'll be on the side of cold rain and disappointment.  I figured I'd get started early with my prediction.  

I think you’ll be pleasantly surprised.

Just now, CorePunch said:

Because significant below normal temperatures and copious amounts of snow ‘never’ happen in February…right?…. 
 

that sun angle fellas…. Steals the February winter.  

Spring started today if you ask him. 
 

1 hour ago, hardypalmguy said:

Hey man I appreciate your input but I disagree. January is cooked for the most part. MJO actually looks to move into the warmer phases pretty quickly based on January trends. Also the SSWE will dump the cold other side of the pole.

The other thing is pattern persistence which has been a common thing since the summer. If I was a betting man I would bet on the same generalized thing continuing.

Maybe better luck in February? Who knows though how much can be salvaged as we will have minuscule frost depths and a rapidly rising sun angle.





.

Beautiful day on this side of the lake, 76° and very low humidity. Some models showing dew points jumping 20°+ degrees here tomorrow in only 6-10 hours time. Will be interesting to feel. 

Steady rain, constant rumbling, occasional lightning, 102° hot tub… 

love to see/feel/hear it.

Weather station has a 27mph wind gust, felt like more but lasted less than 5 seconds.
 

Thoughts and prayers for the people camping near Chicago. 

16 minutes ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said:

@SteboThink it's gonna make it to our neck of the woods?

Willing to bet we will have some good rumblers with anvil crawlers and stratiform rain around our areas tonight. 

Looks like the HRRR sniffed out something, but looks like garbage over this way for tonight. Wonder what the next SPC outlook will look like. Almost looks as though storms are firing along the higher dew point gradient from N IL points southeast into Indiana. 

Dare I say… this mornings bullshit in Indiana forked SWMI once again by working over the atmosphere creating a rather large cold-pool, and only slowly advanced that cold-pool NE into the area while better untapped air pushed into northern Indiana? 
 

Time will tell. 

Already cooling off here @79° and clear skies. 

4 minutes ago, bowtie` said:

Good photo but what is that reflection in the upper right?

I would believe that’s the cap breaking. 
 

Just the vents in my truck lol.

Still a good cap here… lake breeze just pushed east of here. 

1 hour ago, A-L-E-K said:

saddest top of page in a while

you should see what I do for work

I fully expect to head to FireKeepers Casino in my typical Friday night fashion, drink 2-3 Crown Peach doubles, lose a few $$$ then on my way home hopefully be watching anvil-crawlers/constant lighting moving in from the west all to be finished off while sitting in the hot tub while it starts to storm. 
 

Also looks like the cold front won’t be moving through now until tomorrow morning, so kinda thinking we may be in for a pretty quiet afternoon and evening. 100% cloudy here at the moment with just the slightest trace of sun poking through - definitely not going to make it into the 90’s today, but with the later timing of the front the severe threat is kinda meh around here anyway. Just hoping for some good rollers and lots of lightning. 
 

Edit* Peaked at the 14z HRRR and chuckled.. shows a nasty local bow pushing through at around 80mph with large hail at 3am - sweet  

Looks pretty wicked in northern Illinois around 9PM though… 

Heavy rain here, a little organization with the back side precip, would expect it to decay by late morning and hopefully get some filtered sun by noon.