Kevin Reilly

In Media low this morning coldest of the year by 4f degrees; 32f with plenty of frost (first good frost of the season) High was 63f Currently 54f with 55% humidity with a small ribbon of rain just to our west has 0.15-0.25" written all over it. Looking forward to the Zoo field trip on Tuesday, November 11th 9:00 am to 1:00 pm temps 33-43 with gusty northwest winds can't wait LOL. Wonder if we see our first passing snowflakes Monday to Tuesday?

Biggest rainfall here in a while: Total rainfall 2.67" High today 68f Low today 48f

I would say past 100 Mph. That's incredible video! Most amazing to me was now calm the people were there amazing people of Jamaica!

Well, it definitely should have weakened it crossed right over the mountains and has now reemerged on the other side. I have been to that part of Jamaica I would liken the mountains there like the Appalachians in central Pennsylvania. I am stating the obvious, I am sure. This is a tragic event for the Southwestern and western parts of Jamica especially.

Wobbling around now looks like a slight drift east so it's about to turn abruptly northward definitely has hit that brick wall coming in from the west. Certainly, does look the best it has so gotta be peaking as we speak. Western Jamaica is in real danger!

Yep, definitely getting its act together very good outflow in all quadrants. Sucking in some dry air south, southeast, east side for now should work out though fairly quickly.

Guessing that’s a hit! Damm where’s the cold air? (Our theme coming up)

LOL it would be nice to see that in December, January, February, or March been a while my friend.

Picked up 0.50 storm total peak wind gusts around 40 mph a few weak trees came down here and there. Keep an eye out for one last gasp of the tropics months end.

All jokes aside that would be an absolute disaster!!!

No rain to speak of here. 56f humidity 95% dewpoint 55f Wind NE gusting to near 40 mph.

Think that was January 1989 or 1988 one of those years? Someone check I am curious now.

My fear is that the very warm Pacific and Gulf of Mexico just flood the lower 48 with warm air in conjunction with the southeast ridge which has been happening more often than not over the past 5-8 years. Always seems we get a powerful Pacific Jet extension that just overwhelms the weather pattern flooding the lower 48 with warm air and locking the cold way north.

Here is your clue we are getting nothing of significance when it comes to rain: Dewpoint at 8:30 pm last night 61 dewpoint right now 50f Dry air is winning out up here as it is filtering in from the NNE. Had a wind gust here of 36 mph. The sun has been peeking out from time to time too. Typical La Nina coastal where the blocking gives way and the storm just cannot get going because all the pieces of the storm do not phase together. This is our calling card probably for the Winter of 2025-2026 with this storm right here. Maybe we can lucky and score a weak La Nina and get us into the Winter of 1995-1996?

Here is your clue we are getting nothing of significance when it comes to rain: Dewpoint at 8:30 pm last night 61 dewpoint right now 50f Dry air is winning out. Had a wind gust here of 36 mph.

That looks like I winter storm disappointment map; and so it begins! thinking we are getting 1-2 feet of snow and reality is 3-6" maybe?

Models are really backing off. Weaker storm almost looks like it splits in 2.

0z Model runs are trouble up and down the East Coast Outer Banks to North Jersey.

0z Model runs are absolutely trouble for the Jersey and Delaware Beaches all the way to the Outer Banks, get ready!

I wonder if we get a “Folks”!!!!

0.14” here today. That coastal storm has trouble written all over it for the coast especially the Carolinas to Long Island coastal flooding threat is very high if development and track follows both the Euro and Gfs. Major Coastal Flooding Carolinas to possibly as far north as Long Island.

Major Coastal Flooding Carolinas to possibly as far north as Long Island.

The 12z runs completely diverged on this idea of a coastal storm next week think we need a few days to iron this one out. I am not sure what the NAO is showing for next week cannot see it on the NWS website (government shutdown maybe?) Looks like the models are trying to trend toward blocking the storm from coming up the coast albeit it only one set of models runs except the 12z gfs so wait and see time.

I would bet on it! Extremely warm Pacific Waters Record Breaking actually, Record Breaking Gul of Mexico Water Temps for September and October all time, and a toasty southwestern Atlantic we are pretty screwed east of the Appalachians warm air flooding in all directions.

Yea this looks like a depression now or by 11 am as you said. Humberto is pretty far away east from this system. It’s obvious that Humberto turns out to sea gotta wait to see how high pressure builds into the Northeast and Mid Atlantic to put the block in place to initiate movement towards South Carolina, then the stall of Imelda, followed by the bounce off the high to the north and deflection out to sea. Pretty simply put all about exact timing of players build and strength.