Kevin Reilly

Let’s face it we are all weenies why the hell else are we here? I love being here and seeing pbp of models and talking thd possibilities; that alone makes us all weenies enjoy the tracking!! Revel in the snow / weather!

Are you summoning at February 11th 1983 storm that was a fun one!!

9.4” here in Media and about 2.67” liquid since November 30th 2025 I’m fine with this above normal for here despite cold dry stretches which is typical in a La Niña winter or any winter.

I’m sure to get to -19 we had snow on the ground that would be interesting. I saw today in center city our heat island is well in effect as weeping cherry trees were flowering and blooming.

We still have a lot of work to do with this storm. I think as we move forward every storm track and intensity will be dependent on the other.

That’s almost there another 100 nw and more expansive snow shield we are in business. I don’t think we will know until the baroclinic zone sets up as the trough burrows into the east and the cold front clears the east coast.

Oh the classic hold back energy out west and I thought that was only a Euro thing.

Will the sun angle be a problem with this storm? LOL

Welcome to the New Juneau Ak!

Not quite there yet maybe, but is the time we say, “The vort is not yet been sampled correctly it’s still not in range”.

Also it was supposed to be 60-62 today the high here was 37 can’t get this right 5 hours out, but honestly it gives me hope because once again it stayed way colder.

Welcome to Jupiter!

Surface is trying to play catch up? Warm tongue sleet

March 12-15th 1993

Not 12z gfs but better than 6z gfs it’s still finding its way totally acceptable at range.

Dec 2009? and Feb 2010 maybe too.

Much better the first step of what I was looking for now see if the OPS pull this out of the hat moving forward.

I love those rain / wet snow at 43f to pulverizing snowstorms that end with sleet / rain and a rainbow AKA March 1993.

I mean 6z gfs at least has something for January 15th just weaker 995 mb instead of 983 mb more realistic later to develop and much more progressive. At least we still have something to track! It’s definitely not dead yet! Lots of moving pieces but if we are to get something significant we need both jet streams to play and a block to slow things down to allow that to happen. I think reality though is basically it’s going to get colder but stay progressive unfortunately with a quick hit of snow. if you’re looking for the crusher this pattern right now probably isn’t it. Let’s see what happens though. I’ll play the patience card and watch NFL playoff football and hope my Eagles and fantasy playoff team can deliver in the meantime!

See I told you the 18z gfs 1/9/26 would be 100% different at 0z! So, where is the cold high up north? Hmm I mean however a 983mb storm would manufacture its own cold air. Let’s go!!! Now back on the ground I need to see this at least for 6 runs on at least 3 different models before I do the snowy dance. It’s a shame the gfs is on an island by itself. I’m not buying it, but fun to look at and reminisce about winters of the past.

Warm tongue off the Atlantic.

Yea it is 8 days to 12 days out on the 18z GFS guarantee it will be a different solution ride at 0z.

lol ehhh Euro too far west and GFS too far east split the difference Boom!!! We’ve done this before welcome to February 11th 1983!

Yes the entire I-95 corridor.

Always observed that when you see geese gathering and eating together that snow is about 2 weeks away.