Kevin Reilly

February 5th to 6th 2010 picked up 23” in SE Pa

It’s chasing another low out to sea the real storm is closer to the coast happened February 2010. It’s the kicker central Canada to Dakotas knocking everything east and allowing a progressive flow to establish and block northward movement.

I think it’s evident that the kicker on the NS coming SE out of central Canada into the Dakotas is knocking our storm eastbound. This has happened before in the past and is the most likely scenario. The storm develops but it just cannot climb delicate set up to say the least. it’s that last line that will have me watching this until 12z Thursday what else is there to do but pray for that 3 day shift. So far though fun storm to track and that’s why I’m here.

Onto the DGEX

potentially transitioning to a wintry mix of sleet and freezing rain by Sunday afternoon.>>>> see if the NAM agrees here comes the warm tongue again! This would also indicate a strong easterly flow and the storm is quite close to our south and very strong.

I remember other models chasing a weak low out to sea along a boundary while the “real” low was closer to the coast and moved north in time slowly and took over the show. (I think but not sure could havd been either 2009-2010 or 1996)

I’m in until 12z Thursday think we may see some changes at this point coastal sections could still be in trouble due to a strong onshore flow. I cannot ignore what the gfs was selling last week 977 mb east of NJ then lose it only for the Euro to pick it up 18z to 6z Sunday to Monday then lose it. still a lot of waffling I’d like to see play out either way next 25-36 hours I think we will know. Therefore yes I’m in!

Arctic front moving through kiss the warm air goodbye lol.

Looked like on the Euro there was a kicker vort dropping through central Canada into the Dakotas knocking things east off the east coast. Now not sure but I wonder if the gfs picks up on northern stream vorts better? Friday 12z gfs had a 977 mb low east of New Jersey so maybe it was onto something then and it’s bringing back. We shall see but the Euro had it fir a few runs too especially 0z Sunday into Monday.

Yea, was totally thinking 1996…. Models had that heading due east and the snow shield the important inches and feet stayed well south. Then within about 48 hours out the storm just kept marching further and further north until it was perched off the Jersey shore then just cutoff sits and slowly eased off to the east-northeast.

You forgot to put a space between this and close when you were typing.

Sure just follow the Apple app they went fun 35” Mostly Sunny

It is Monday!? Oh wait you mean next Monday!

I have a pic of the 12z gfs from Thursday but the pic is too big for this forum totally 977 mb at benchmark.

That’s almost exactly where the GFS had this back on Thursday last week at 977 mb

Remember what the gfs showed 977 east of Delaware!!

Yea drought guy would appreciate it!

Almost on to the next threat! Keep an eye on the Gulf crazy energy to tap it was 87f in Central and Southern Florida!

17.6f humidity 95% dew point 16f Moderate Sleet 95% maybe 5% ZR just picking up on a slight glaze on the cars the windows are frosted white. Hard to measure but I would say we had: 8-9" of snow 2.5" of sleet Totals Snow and Sleet: 11" sounds about right to me Shoveled at 9:30 and 2 pm will go out when the storm ends. Where it is just sleeting accumulation, it is a total glacier, and it is very heavy be careful while shoveling. Total snow / sleet on the year: 25.7" (plenty of time to add more too it is only January 25th)

Getting concerned still sleet here but sky visibility has improved and you can see the clouds moving east to west fear the layer above is getting warmer. Think we are going to start seeing freezing rain reports. 17.4f

Man at this rate his pile is safe until mid March lol

Not here all sleet here with mangled snow crystals 17.2f humidity 93% dew point 15. Yea there’s no liquid in this I would see it on the cars.

Back to our regular scheduled La Niña program cold and dry! Then we get ready for the next storm which will be snow then change to sleet for the important hours of the storm! Welcome to the 2025-26 winter! I’ll take this in a heartbeat over the past 4-5 years.

Yea but winds have shifted NW south of Ocean City Md. Ocean City Md gusting to 40 out of the east. All surface suppose east aloft.

Yea we have to be here 8-10” sleet has been beating the snow down now last 20 minutes. 14f here now interesting the humidity is ticking down now dropped from 97% to 94% dp 13f. Also see it’s snowing again Ashland Va.