Kevin Reilly

https://pierhouseevents.com/kittyhawkpiercam/

Don’t forget ice jams and ice jam flooding.

All seriousness we do have 1-2” liquid frozen on rock hard grounds. If the southern branch of the jet stream wakes up and really amps a storm and suddenly 50-60 degree air comes with a storm that drops 2-3” we most certainly have big issues with flooding and ice jams due to frozen grounds and rapid runoff. I suppose it’s not a matter but when with our new Tundra in place. I 100% like the heads up and the what if scenario in this case. I do recall issues like this in 1996 but there was less ice just a lot more liquid available. Think we are setting up for possible major snow storms first followed by a flip of the switch warming and wet by very late February or sometime in March. If anyone has a 500 chart it shows the STJ beginning to wake up. I think we are about to enter into a transition at this time next 6 weeks from La Niña towards El Niño I’d expect some turbulent / possible extreme weather. Phil then should see his shadow because we are about to pick up 15-20” of snow next 4-6 weeks.

Valleys low here was 2.2f with a -8 dew point true Arctic!!

Well lookie there there is the kicker coming southeast out of Canada both models.

The weather was awful when I was there in the first week of August every day cloudy with NE winds 20-40 mph and you couldn’t touch the very rough oceans. It was strange too ocean water temps were 80-82 but the air temp as like 76 with the wind and drizzle from time to time. Sounds like a great weekend get away! I mean a shelter in place don’t think I’ve ever seen that before geeze.

I don’t think we can know much about this week coming up until the development and strengthening of the coastal to our southeast is resolved. The models are still trying to figure out what to do even now with that coastal. Anything beyond 100 hours is an absolute crap shoot? In the meantime enjoy cold, dry, and snowpack with a screaming west-northwesterly flow of blocking.

That’s what “Meatloaf” said!

May have to wait until very late February all of March and the first quarter of April for the big one.

Must be the sun spots or is it just cold here and no where else on the planet. It’s a balancing act has to be well above normal somewhere have not had the time to see where.

Excited down there for you guys! It’s been a while. Can’t wait to see the cams out of the Outer Banks! Good Luck! Currently 13f here dew point -1 Going down to 0 here under crystal clear skies with 12” snow / sleet / freezing rain pack.

Let the north trend begin with our number one model this year the NAM. How far north will she go!?? Did the weather channel name this winter storm yet?

Gotta be broken right?

Slightly warmer tonight so far here currently 14f dew point 1f this time last night it was 8f dew point -4. It’s all relative at this point but this is the coldest I remember going back to the later 1980s.

That’s got snow to sleet ending as a bit of freezing drizzle written all over it fun!

Well, I am okay with tracking a shut down Outer Banks snowstorm with 60-70 mph winds (or are the models backing off on that now too) then onto tracking something in the next 3-5 days game on!!

How are we doing with 120? Lol

February 5th to 6th 2010 picked up 23” in SE Pa

It’s chasing another low out to sea the real storm is closer to the coast happened February 2010. It’s the kicker central Canada to Dakotas knocking everything east and allowing a progressive flow to establish and block northward movement.

I think it’s evident that the kicker on the NS coming SE out of central Canada into the Dakotas is knocking our storm eastbound. This has happened before in the past and is the most likely scenario. The storm develops but it just cannot climb delicate set up to say the least. it’s that last line that will have me watching this until 12z Thursday what else is there to do but pray for that 3 day shift. So far though fun storm to track and that’s why I’m here.

Onto the DGEX

potentially transitioning to a wintry mix of sleet and freezing rain by Sunday afternoon.>>>> see if the NAM agrees here comes the warm tongue again! This would also indicate a strong easterly flow and the storm is quite close to our south and very strong.

I remember other models chasing a weak low out to sea along a boundary while the “real” low was closer to the coast and moved north in time slowly and took over the show. (I think but not sure could havd been either 2009-2010 or 1996)

I’m in until 12z Thursday think we may see some changes at this point coastal sections could still be in trouble due to a strong onshore flow. I cannot ignore what the gfs was selling last week 977 mb east of NJ then lose it only for the Euro to pick it up 18z to 6z Sunday to Monday then lose it. still a lot of waffling I’d like to see play out either way next 25-36 hours I think we will know. Therefore yes I’m in!

Arctic front moving through kiss the warm air goodbye lol.