Kevin Reilly

16f dew point -3

You cannot discount anything at this point.

Funny you said that I’m about to go out now and give the generator a start and run for 10 minutes and check my gas supply.

Yea totally remembered commenting with Glen think possibly during the 13” storm back in 2014.

I can hear Elliott Abrams in my ears, “should the delay in the changeover occur we can easily pick up a foot of snow.”

Their app algorithm must calculate 1-2” of sleet as 10”

That’s what totally makes him a respectable met!

I think I see 0.40” liquid for freezing rain power outages hopefully it’s not that radial freezing rain that MGorse was talking about yesterday. We cannot lose power with that cold coming behind the storm.

Thinking right call is 8-10” for the weenie at heart, but reality is a floor of 6” and a ceiling of 10” I do think the Euro at 0z went higher because it calculated sleet this time instead of Frz rain at least I hope.

At this point bring whatever we can get! Keep the Frz rain and power outages outta here we do not need that with the cold coming.

Umm cmc backed off though southern sections nodding to Nam

Think the budget was cut balloons too expensive so geese were tagged to sample the atmosphere around our region looking for where the warm tongue will set up.

Sorry in all seriousness you’re right a clear warm tongue there shown on the Nam it’s really good on picking those features up. Frustrating!

Philly heat island full effect

lol for who Delaware County has gone 13” to 10” to 5.7 now is that less than 3”

Doesn’t power outages start or so around 0.25” liquid of Frz Rain growing more concerned for central Delaware County.

Most models going sleet to freezing rain Euro 0.30-0.40” liquid at 24-27f in Se Pa is very concerning power outages. my hope we shove the cold south at 12z keeping all layers cold enough for snow and sleet the alternative of Frz Rain is bad news with the pattern behind the storm. I am going 8-12” with 1-2” of sleet to 0.32” Frz for Central Delaware County. See what 12z does it would be very bad to switch to liquid with this scenario my number one concern snow sleet you can deal with.

Cold air slower to come in slower to leave!

Looks like a different orientation northeast to southwest classic. screams coastal redevelopment more a nod to gfs in my opinion.

Yep, they are on the wrong side of Lake Erie down wind is over in Erie, PA or Southwestern New York State depending on wind vectors from the west, northwest, and southwest during cold air advection and wind patterns.

Helpful for the drought long term.

Thanks for the advice I am going ALL IN on the GFS chips forward. I BELIEVE!!! Primary will bounce off the large high and confluence up north giving us 10" of overrunning then that primary low will transfer its energy to a new coastal at the Virginia Capes and Move NE to ENE from there giving us another 10-12" on a NNE flow winds gusting to 35-40 mph around the High to the north and the low to our southeast and east. Total snow in Media 22" Let's Go!!

It definitely looked like the high up north beats it down a bit. I wonder if it continues to beat it down a bit more as we get closer to game.

Guessing that’s the new injested data now from Hurricane Hunters?

If I had to make forecast right now I’d say 6-10” along 95 areas with a change over to sleet and freezing rain towards the end of the storm. NE Maryland 8-12” before flip to sleet and Frz Rain South Jersey 5-8” before flip Right at the beaches 4-6” before flip to sleet freezing rain then just rain. Chester Bucks Montgomery Counties: 10-15” some sleet may mix in at times I think our max amounts as of right now is 16” favored northwestern Chester Bucks Montgomery Counties. Poconos 10”