Kevin Reilly

March 12-15th 1993

Not 12z gfs but better than 6z gfs it’s still finding its way totally acceptable at range.

Dec 2009? and Feb 2010 maybe too.

Much better the first step of what I was looking for now see if the OPS pull this out of the hat moving forward.

I love those rain / wet snow at 43f to pulverizing snowstorms that end with sleet / rain and a rainbow AKA March 1993.

I mean 6z gfs at least has something for January 15th just weaker 995 mb instead of 983 mb more realistic later to develop and much more progressive. At least we still have something to track! It’s definitely not dead yet! Lots of moving pieces but if we are to get something significant we need both jet streams to play and a block to slow things down to allow that to happen. I think reality though is basically it’s going to get colder but stay progressive unfortunately with a quick hit of snow. if you’re looking for the crusher this pattern right now probably isn’t it. Let’s see what happens though. I’ll play the patience card and watch NFL playoff football and hope my Eagles and fantasy playoff team can deliver in the meantime!

See I told you the 18z gfs 1/9/26 would be 100% different at 0z! So, where is the cold high up north? Hmm I mean however a 983mb storm would manufacture its own cold air. Let’s go!!! Now back on the ground I need to see this at least for 6 runs on at least 3 different models before I do the snowy dance. It’s a shame the gfs is on an island by itself. I’m not buying it, but fun to look at and reminisce about winters of the past.

Warm tongue off the Atlantic.

Yea it is 8 days to 12 days out on the 18z GFS guarantee it will be a different solution ride at 0z.

lol ehhh Euro too far west and GFS too far east split the difference Boom!!! We’ve done this before welcome to February 11th 1983!

Yes the entire I-95 corridor.

Always observed that when you see geese gathering and eating together that snow is about 2 weeks away.

They are getting ready to chase the storms out to sea next week?

Low in Media last night was briefly 33f. Currently it is 36f surprisingly pretty chilly considering it was fairly warm today.

It’s amazing to understand the incredible amount of variables that go into temperatures over time. There are many variables!!! Thanks for taking the time to compile the data this is close enough to me to just add a degree of two in my location.

Heavier rates dragging cold air from aloft do temps are marginal in those cases but most likely a product of the model not seeing dynamics or smoothing things out.

Classic holding energy back out west. As we know models are horrible at getting these right. Is it pieces coming east or the whole bundle of energy the effects here are quite different.

It’s honestly normal for these parts.

PATIENCE!

Overriding warm air I’d suspect meeting up with the northern stream vort to the north and storm gliding by south.

One of those years where the warm is coming it’s going to be 60s and 70’s then the warmth is shooed cut down by the west northwesterly flow beat down. This sets up a normal winter IHO.

Skies beginning to clear bottomed out at 17f last night around 8:30 pm. Currently mostly cloudy with breaks developing in the clouds especially overhead and to the west and northwest. 23f humidity 52% dewpoint 11f Total snowfall overnight into this morning: trace / 0.01" Total snowfall for the year 9.4"

Light snow officially a car topper here. 22f humidity 52% dew point 7f

At 8:00 pm clear it was 17f 49% humidity dewpoint 2f currently cloudy 22f humidity 53% dew point 8f virga. see if we can squeeze out those car topper flakes?

Yea December 22nd 2009 got 22.4” here in Media.