Kevin Reilly

Doesn’t power outages start or so around 0.25” liquid of Frz Rain growing more concerned for central Delaware County.

Most models going sleet to freezing rain Euro 0.30-0.40” liquid at 24-27f in Se Pa is very concerning power outages. my hope we shove the cold south at 12z keeping all layers cold enough for snow and sleet the alternative of Frz Rain is bad news with the pattern behind the storm. I am going 8-12” with 1-2” of sleet to 0.32” Frz for Central Delaware County. See what 12z does it would be very bad to switch to liquid with this scenario my number one concern snow sleet you can deal with.

Cold air slower to come in slower to leave!

Looks like a different orientation northeast to southwest classic. screams coastal redevelopment more a nod to gfs in my opinion.

Yep, they are on the wrong side of Lake Erie down wind is over in Erie, PA or Southwestern New York State depending on wind vectors from the west, northwest, and southwest during cold air advection and wind patterns.

Helpful for the drought long term.

Thanks for the advice I am going ALL IN on the GFS chips forward. I BELIEVE!!! Primary will bounce off the large high and confluence up north giving us 10" of overrunning then that primary low will transfer its energy to a new coastal at the Virginia Capes and Move NE to ENE from there giving us another 10-12" on a NNE flow winds gusting to 35-40 mph around the High to the north and the low to our southeast and east. Total snow in Media 22" Let's Go!!

It definitely looked like the high up north beats it down a bit. I wonder if it continues to beat it down a bit more as we get closer to game.

Guessing that’s the new injested data now from Hurricane Hunters?

If I had to make forecast right now I’d say 6-10” along 95 areas with a change over to sleet and freezing rain towards the end of the storm. NE Maryland 8-12” before flip to sleet and Frz Rain South Jersey 5-8” before flip Right at the beaches 4-6” before flip to sleet freezing rain then just rain. Chester Bucks Montgomery Counties: 10-15” some sleet may mix in at times I think our max amounts as of right now is 16” favored northwestern Chester Bucks Montgomery Counties. Poconos 10”

So double barrel highs 1044 and 1045.... it appears that the low is maybe trying to find a weakness in the ridge and head in that direction. So there for not a complete wall to wall of cold high pressure but rather a double high that has a weakness which the primary is moving towards. I think that needs to fuse together to prevent the north trend from continuing.

No just means huge snowstorm incoming

Pretty consistent outside of exact details it’s gonna snow! Who’s got that gif?

I mean I get it but even if you do not even look at Synoptics climatologically thinking you 60-90% of the time mix in these situations. Check all past storms like this however it does vary north to south or southeast to northwest depending on the cold high up north or phasing or not. I get the suppression thing but remember we are in a La Niña after all and heights typically rise along the southeast coast southwestern Atlantic.

I think this is the typical as the precip tapers lightens up it no longer can pull the cold air through the column and resulting in a little Frz snizzle pellets then cold air crashes back down for another period of snow 1-2” typical in lot of our 12”+ storms.

“Folks” is what Randy Stormtracker Admin would call a beat down 15-20”+ snow event. Glad I could help! Pretty entertaining actually!

Well technically that 2009-2010 seasons wasn’t a one and done season it was a bookend season. 12/22/09 15-23”

Currently 6f in Media the low was 4f

Great I better get ready here then to be buried!

Also, as you head north the ratios increase incrementally so the northern tier of the snow maps will be higher and more uniform due to the higher ratios.

This was the breakdown for President's Day 2003 PHL was 8f snow increasing 1-2" an hour in intensity and piling up fast, Trenton 6f had filtered sun through high clouds no snow during that morning around 7:00 am, and just southwest of PHL I think they were working over a foot. I am not sure I think we wound up with like 19-22" if I am correct, it's been a while. The February 5th, 2010, storm was crazy cold air crashing too we wound up with 23" here and even more impressive which I have not seen before was 1-2" an hour for like 3 hours with winds gusting 40-50 mph out of the west. I know The February 5th, 2010, storm was a Baja Calli low >>> we get the big dogs when the Baja Calli lows come to play further east.

Low here in Media 9.7f with our 5" of snow on the ground. I think we are looking at 2f to about 5f tonight see how things work out. I mean 2f and a high to 46f on Thursday, you know something is coming soon in regards to a big storm with these temperature gradients that are going to start showing up as we increase our warming in the southern latitudes and bring the warm and moisture north it is all about timing, but the ingredients are there for 1 or 2 blockbuster snowstorms between January 23rd and February 10th or so. Great information as usual Paul.

Classic!

I think it may be one of those situations where if you lose liquid further south you gain ratios as you go north due to very cold temperatures. Less liquid but with the cold higher ratios more snow pure powder.

Yea tank is outside the line is at the bottom of the tank it the line is literally like 7-10” into the house.