GaWx

Now that the “official” MJO has been put on the diagram for 2/19-20 (it takes a few days), I see that it actually wasn’t weakening moderate phase 8 like I thought. It was instead weakening moderate phase 7 (barely off the border with phase 8). I’ll edit my original post to reflect this:

Yeah, this ZR/ice is way off in the N section. For one thing RDU had hardly anything outside of snow. This has RDU at ~0.25”!

On this Thawing Sunday, a Reading from the Book of Arthur ( Viterito) From Arthur Viterito: One of the criticisms of the argument that variable geothermal flux along mid-ocean ridges can modulate global climate is as follows: There isn’t enough heat flow to impact the system. Critics further argue that changes to the global temperature must be caused by either fluctuations in the atmosphere’s CO2 load and/or changes in cosmic radiation and/or changes in global cloud cover. Defense of the geothermal hypothesis can be found in a substantial body of theoretical and empirical work that is casually ignored by its detractors. Compelling evidence will be presented to debunk these criticisms. 1) We know that the earth emits the vast majority of its geothermal energy along mid ocean rises and ridges. We know that the flux can change over time and that change is reflected in the number of seismic events recorded in these areas. Here is a map showing the geothermal flux globally: 2) According to Davis et al (Davis E, Becker K, Dziak R, Cassidy J, Wang K, et al. (2004) Hydrological response to a seafloor spreading episode on the Juan de Fuca Ridge. Nature 430(6997): 335-338. DOI: 10.1038/nature02755), increasing seismic activity in these abyssal zones leads to an increase in water temperatures. To quote from their study: “Seafloor hydrothermal systems are known to respond to seismic and magmatic activity along mid-ocean ridges, often resulting in locally positive changes in hydrothermal discharge rate, temperature, … and shifts in composition occurring at the time of earthquake swarms and axial crustal dike injections. Corresponding regional effects have also been observed.” 3) In a number of studies, I have documented large changes in the number of medium and large magnitude seismic events along these mid-ocean ridge systems. Here are links to two of these studies: The Correlation of Seismic Activity and Recent Global Warming | OMICS International 1995: An Important Inflection Point in Recent Geophysical History 4) How, then, can changing geothermal flux affect global climate? If you query Google (“geothermal global flux”), the Gemini AI system will respond with the following: “Global geothermal flux is the amount of heat that moves from the Earth's interior to the surface over time. It's a major factor in climate change and can impact ice sheets and the ocean. How does geothermal flux affect the Earth? Ice sheets: Geothermal heat flux can melt ice sheets, which can increase the amount of ice that flows into the ocean. This can contribute to sea level rise. Oceanic circulation: Geothermal heat flux affects the circulation of water in the ocean. Climate change: Geothermal heat flux contributes to climate change by adding heat to the Earth's system.” 5) With regards to melting ice sheets, James Kamis has commented on this extensively. Here is a link to his work on the subject: Plate climatology 6) With regards to impacts on the oceanic circulation, the literature is quite clear: increasing geothermal flux intensifies the thermohaline flow. This is critically important, as it will drive more warm water into the Arctic, (i.e., Atlantification and the Arctic Amplification) and the central Pacific by strengthening the Kuroshio Current. 7) Here we can see increased sea surface temperatures resulting from an intensified Kuroshio Current during the most recent El Nino episode: ( note this was a reaction by the time it was taken, we were in a La Nada) 8) Here we can see the effect on the current sea ice extent in the Arctic. Notice the reduced ice extent where the Northern Gulf Stream has been intensified from heightened mid ocean seismic activity and geothermal flux: 9) Professor Wyss Yim has documented the impacts of large underwater seismic events on local and regional ocean temperatures. He refers to these ephemeral, yet significant areas of higher ocean temperatures, as “oceanic blobs.” Here is a link to one of his presentations: Volcanic Eruptions and Climate Variability - Professor Wyss Yim - YouTube 10) If we tie all of this together, we arrive at a compelling statistical relationship between global temperatures and mid-ocean seismic activity. Here is a graph depicting this relationship: 11) Ignoring this tight fit between global temperatures and mid-ocean geothermal flux is a serious oversight by the climate community. Through continued research and improved communication with climate scientists, it is hoped that this critical association will eventually find its way into the mainstream thinking on recent climate change.

1. It turns out I did miss a 4/1-10 at NYC: 2.2” on 4/9-10/1942 E L 2. Additions for 1”+ April 11+: -4/19/1983: 1.5” at JFK E L -4/12/1959: 1.3” at LGA E N Earlier ones were all NYC: -4/14/1950: 1.9” L L -4/12-13/1940: 1.8” E E -1918 had 2.6” on 4/11-13 L E. That means there were 4 straight Aprils with 1”+ snowstorms in 1915-18! -1887 had a 2nd one! 3” on 4/18 -1875 had two after 4/10!! 4/13-14: 10.0” and 4/25: 3.0” N N (Aside: ATL’s latest on record is also on 4/25! That was in 1910.) —————————— New tally: Analysis of these 31 years: -11 lead to El Niño -11 lead to neutral -9 lead to La Niña -8 concurrent with El Niño -11 concurrent with neutral - 12 concurrent with La Niña -Of 12 La Niña: 6 went to El Niño, 3 went to neutral, and 3 remained La Niña Conclusion: no change -With 6 of 12 of these La Niñas leading to El Niño and 11 of the entire 31 leading to El Nino, the stats say that an April NYC snowstorm isn’t strongly indicative of El Niño the following winter. -HOWEVER: Of the last 46 La Ninas, only 12 (26%) went to El Niño. (16 went to neutral and 18 remained La Niña). Of the 12 La Ninas with an April NYC snowstorm, 6 (50% or ~twice the overall %) went to El Niño. That means that of the 34 La Ninas without a snowstorm, only 6 (18%) went to El Niño (just over 1/3 the rate of La Niñas with a snowstorm going to El Niño). So, perhaps having a La Niña April NYC snowstorm is indicative of a higher than the normal small chance for El Niño to follow La Niña.

Thank you. -Yes, 4/7/1990 was under 1”. So, that’s why I excluded it. - Good find but I didn’t include the 4/18/1983 1.5” at JFK because it was after April 10th. I did only April 1-10 because you asked about early April snowstorms. -Indeed, 3 in a row in 1910s! However, consider that 1996-2006 had 5 in 11 years! Before that the most on record within 11 or fewer years was only 4: 1907-1917 and 1915-1924.

Knoxville 2”+ snowstorms Mar-Apr since 1971: 4/6-7/1971 weak +PNA, +EPO, strong +NAO, weak -AO 3/25/1972 neutral PNA, neutral EPO, neutral NAO, neutral AO 3/10/1975 weak -PNA, -EPO, neutral NAO, neutral AO, moderate phase 3 3/1/1980 moderate +PNA, -EPO, weak +NAO, weak -AO, weak phase 3 4/18/1983 moderate +PNA, neutral EPO, moderate -NAO, neutral AO, moderate phase 2 4/3/1987 strong +PNA, neutral EPO, neutral NAO, strong -AO, moderate phase 3 3/13/1993 neutral PNA, -EPO, moderate +NAO, moderate +AO, strong phase 2 3/12/2022 neutral PNA, neutral EPO, moderate +NAO, weak +AO, moderate phase 2 Did these 8 dates have any index tendencies? -Not ENSO as it was all over the board. -PNA neutral to + -EPO neutral to - -NAO neutral to +….interesting -AO all over the board -MJO phases 2 and 3 (cold phases in Mar, Apr)

What is the nearest major city to you?

This is a great example of different strokes for different folks. I prefer down here in S GA below normal temperatures every month of the year because warmth and humidity is so dominant for much of the year and is getting worse. Also, the cold down here is fairly tame compared to most other parts of the U.S. Moderate cold is very refreshing to me. Also, I tend to sweat very easily (more than most). I love walking but mainly do it inside on my treadmill when dewpoints are 55+. I’d rather be outside. My favorite temps for walking are 40s to 50s (with dewpoints 40s or lower). There is no right or wrong answer overall. It is all about preference. The following 50 second video is somewhat relevant though not completely because it is addressing morally right or wrong vs preference in regard to parenting:

You got me curious. So, I checked NYC data for 1”+ snowstorms during Apr 1-10 at NYC, JFK, or LGA. I found 24 storms: Date…Snow…Station…Concurrent ENSO…Subsequent ENSO 4/2/2018 5.5” NYC L E 4/5/2006 1.0” JFK L E 4/7/2003 5.6” LGA E N 4/9/2000 1.2” NYC L L 4/1/1997 1.5” JFK N E 4/9-10/1996 4.0” JFK L N 4/6/1982 9.6” NYC N E 4/6/1971 3.2” JFK L L 4/2/1965 1.2” NYC L E 4/4/1957 5.4” LGA N E 4/8/1956 6.4” LGA L N 4/5/1944 6.5” NYC N N 4/6-7/1938 6.4” NYC N L 4/1/1924 8.5” NYC E L 4/9/1917 6.4” NYC L E 4/8-9/1916 3.3” NYC N L 4/3-4/1915 10.2” NYC E N 4/9/1907 5.0” NYC N N 4/5/1898 2.5” NYC N N 4/6-7/1896 3.0” NYC N E 4/1-2/1887 2.0” NYC L E 4/4-5/1886 1.0” NYC E L 4/2/1871 2.0” NYC N N 4/4/1870 2.5” NYC L N ———————————— Analysis of these 24: -9 lead to El Niño -9 lead to neutral -6 lead to La Niña -Only 4 concurrent El Niño -10 concurrent with each of neutral and La Niña -Of 10 La Niña: 5 went to El Niño, 3 went to neutral, and 2 remained La Niña ———————————— Conclusion: -With 5 of 10 of these La Niñas leading to El Niño and 9 of the entire 24 leading to El Nino, the stats say that an early April NYC snowstorm isn’t strongly indicative of El Niño the following winter. -HOWEVER: Of the last 46 La Ninas, only 12 (26%) went to El Niño. (16 went to neutral and 18 remained La Niña). Of the 10 La Ninas with an early April NYC snowstorm, 5 (50% or ~twice the overall %) went to El Niño. That means that of the 36 La Ninas without a snowstorm, only 7 (19%) went to El Niño. So, perhaps having a La Niña snowstorm is indicative of a higher than normal chance for El Niño to follow La Niña.

- Euro Weeklies are mainly mild 3/10+. - Next 2 weeks average near to slightly below normal on 12Z ensemble consensus (ups and downs). Nothing dramatic.

Likely partially due to just having had 3 mild winters

And GEFS still had no signal for a major SSW as of yest:

KSAV got down to 31. Last freeze? I’m guessing there will be at least one more light freeze but we’ll see. Mar on average sees 1, but ~50% see none. Mean coldest is 33. Chance of a hard freeze is low. Winter’s typically over after 1st week in Mar. DJF headed to ~1F BN due to combo of strong ups and downs. Including today I count 36 of 84 days 10+ AN or BN. Last entire winter: only 20 of 91 days. 2022-3: 37 of 90. 2021-2: 24 of 90. 2020-1: 16 of 90. 2019-20: 31 of 91. 2018-9: 26 of 90. In summer we typically have 0 days 10+ AN or BN and is why I find winter much more interesting.

A change is on today’s Euro Weeklies as there are many members with a major SSW within Mar 9-14 (see below). This is the most bullish run this winter. If this occurs, this may mean a chilly April in much of the E US. This would jibe well with Joe D’Aleo’s research on its connection with +QBO/high solar: 12Z Euro 360 10 mb temp anomalies:

Well, this changed on today’s Euro Weeklies as there are many members with a major SSW within Mar 9-14 (see below). This is easily the most bullish run this winter. If this occurs, this may mean a chilly April in much of the E US. This would jibe well with Joe D’Aleo’s research on its connection with +QBO/high solar and Ray’s feeling there’d likely be one late this winter. @40/70 Benchmark @snowman19 Here’s the 12Z Euro op 360 10 mb temp anomalies:

As of 1 PM it is still only in the high 30s to low 40s throughout most of GA/SC/NC. In coastal GA it is still only in the upper 30s coast/offshore buoys and will struggle to reach only up into the mid to upper 40s. Average coastal highs are in the low 60s on Feb 21st. So, ~15 BN for the date and ~10 below mid Jan climo.

12Z GEFS has a pretty strong snow signal for NC in early March:

Today the preliminary CPC PNA is +1.78, which was well predicted by GEFS. This is the highest winter daily CPC PNA since 12/7/20 and highest in Feb since 2/15/2017.

He’s been talking about a “stratwarm” but he uses different criteria from 10 mb 60N mean wind reversal. There’s no forecasted reversal in sight (2 weeks). He showed the 6Z 2/20 Euro AI 240 hour map (as of 6Z on 3/2) “going out of its mind” with its 501 dm H5 ht over Bradford, PA, and compared it to the 3/13/1993 superstorm’s upper low of 503 dm over DC. He said that IF this Euro AI were to verify that there is going to be “record cold to open March in places”.

At 10AM it was still only in the upper 20s in the ATL area and only mid to high 30s GA coast. It’s a beautiful winter’s day with clear skies. Offshore buoys were only in the 36-38 range as of 9:50AM.

-KATL’s 19 low this morning was its coldest since Jan 22nd’s 14 and is the 3rd coldest of the winter. -KSAV’s 26 low was its first freeze (21st freeze of the season) and lowest since Jan 26th. It was a hard freeze that lasted 7 hours (2-9AM). KSVN’s (not as far inland) low was 29. -Even the entire coast of GA/SC/NC had a freeze this morning. Ft Pulaski got down to at least 31. -Much of N FL got down to freezing incl JAX’s 32. Gainesville got at least down to 33 though the winds may have prevented an official freeze. I won’t know til later.

Nino 3.4 anomalies have over the last ~4 weeks warmed up substantially (~0.8C) to the warmest since Nov:

I first heard them ~50 years ago (I think it was a song on one of the annual K-Tel greatest hits albums…remember those?) and they then became my favorite band in 1978 (around the time the great “Out of the Blue” album was out). They’ve remained that way for me since.

The Euro Weeklies reversed the cooling of yesterday for Mar 3-9 back to how they were on Tue’s run. Also, the subsequent weeks are all warmer than Mar 3-9 and overall mild for the rest of Mar into Apr. Yesterday’s run for Mar 3-9: Today’s run for Mar 3-9:

But during a storm this often has limited effects due to thick cloud cover keeping direct solar radiation limited. I’ve experienced several significant Atlanta snows in Mar and they stuck to everything easily, especially 1980 and 1993. The temperature during the event is crucial whatever time of year. How long it sticks around afterward is another story of course. Temperatures in March after a storm are obviously likely going to warm up to higher levels. But that’s beside the main point of sticking during a storm.