GaWx

Busan should be getting about the worst of it now.

The 12Z EPS looks a bit menacing with this AEW position at 240, especially considering the high to the north moving west with this. The highest concentration of members with surface lows is right where the 12Z Euro op is at 240. Note that a number of members that earlier in the run were moving WNW curl back to a westerly heading. That is a recipe to bring AEWs into the western basin. This run has ~40% of its members with surface lows from this AEW. The prior run had ~60%. So, a tick down fwiw.

1. The 12Z GEFS, like the previous two runs, has a good number of strong members from the AEW coming off 9/7-8 with 8 of 31 that become hurricanes. The timing is slightly slower and the mean position a bit NE of the prior two runs meaning less threat to the NE Caribbean. It looks like the 12Z GEFS control (assuming I'm looking at the right member) plunges down to 939 mb SW of Bermuda on 9/20! 2. The 12Z UKMET has it for the 3rd time albeit genesis is delayed til hour 144, meaning a 48 hour delay vs the prior two runs (phantom alert!) and still in a similarly pretty far south latitude in the MDR: NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 144 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+144 : 12.5N 40.6W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 11.09.2022 144 12.5N 40.6W 1010 26 3. Meanwhile, the 12Z Euro has this as a very weak low moving W to WNW at 21N, 57W at hour 240 as of 12Z on 9/15. If this were to be near reality and then develop, it would subsequently probably become a threat to the western basin near 9/18-9/20. You can see that the run slides a rather strong surface/H5 high westward to its north throughout the preceding 7 days keeping it from recurving early and instead taking it toward the western Atlantic. Is this just a phantom? I wouldn't bet against it, but we don't know yet. This is the AEW that @Floydbusterbriefly talks about in his latest video that he shows coming far west on the 6Z GEFS.

0Z UKMET is the 2nd run in a row with this far south latitude E MDR TC moving WNW. It comes off Africa ~Sep 7th and then forms into a TD on Sep 9th. The 0Z ICON has this as a weak low near 15N, 41W, moving WNW at hour 180 (12Z on 9/12). Keep in mind though that this ICON run also has a cat 4 Earl temporarily stuck under a ridge then moving WNW to NW near 68W: NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 108 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+108 : 10.9N 25.0W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 09.09.2022 108 10.9N 25.0W 1009 27 0000UTC 10.09.2022 120 11.1N 29.1W 1008 30 1200UTC 10.09.2022 132 11.6N 32.8W 1007 32 0000UTC 11.09.2022 144 12.5N 36.1W 1007 33 Edit: African satellite pics looking unimpressive plus considering the way the season has gone since Bonnie makes me think this is probably a phantom TD on the UKMET even though the UKMET is fairly conservative. Update for 0Z GEFS: Fwiw, the 0Z GEFS is the most active run with this AEW that comes off Africa within 60-72 hours. Some of these members (5 of 31) get into or near the E Caribbean as a H 9/15-16. It will be interesting to see what happens with Earl if this actually ends up an active AEW as Earl's indirect effects on steering would be significant.

I got 2" this morning (9/4) and am getting another dowsing now. The rainforest climo, which dominated July and August here after a very dry mid Nov-May, seems to want to continue. Despite a low tide having been as recently as 10PM, the rain I just got 11PM-midnight produced about as bad flooding of my street/yard as any this summer and quite possibly the worst. I'll have totals later (Edit: 2.02" putting me near 4.5" already this month) but this flooding was made worse by the 2" this morning as well as a very wet late August. My water table is sky high from all of the rain the last 66 days, nearly 30"! And only ~4" of this was from an organized tropical system, the precursor to Colin on July 1st. That makes this even more unusual.

Nope, I'm showing the stark contrast between August's shutout (0 ACE vs normal of 27 for a deficit of 27) and the much more active first half of September. 9/1-15 has a great shot at 40. It even has a decent shot at 50, which would be vs a 33 normal and thus a surplus of 17. No pretending here as I'm just posting the facts. Actually, I never forecasted this season to be active vs 1991-2022 climo like some, but rather forecasted an ACE of 120, which is near the 1991-2020 average. We'll see if it gets there. If 9/1-15 were to get 50, that would bring 2022 to 53 as of 9/15 vs a 1991-2020 average of 70. An active 9/16-10/15 could get it to over 100. The average for 9/16-10/15 is 37.

After posting that, I compared the 18Z EPS 132-144 tracks to the 12Z EPS 138-150 tracks. This suggests that the 18Z would very likely have had fewer, if any, threaten the US. So, it may be just another one of those fluky EPS runs like we had a couple of days ago.

Here we go again with the EPS. On the 12z, 5 of 51 (10%) hit the US as hurricanes 9/13-16 (2 FL 9/13 and 9/14), 2 hit NC (9/14 and 9/16), and 1 hits ME (9/14). Also, a few others are close. On the 18Z GFS, 2 of 31 (6%) hit the US as a H on 9/14 (1-NC, 1-VA). This is mainly for the record as it is just a longshot for a US hit as opposed to a concern at this time. However, it may be a bigger threat for the Canadian Maritimes. Also, Bermuda may need to watch this.

This is a new one on the 12Z UKMET fwiw, which is at a very low latitude moving WNW in the E MDR: NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 120 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+120 : 9.8N 26.4W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 09.09.2022 120 9.8N 26.4W 1009 26 0000UTC 10.09.2022 132 10.6N 30.4W 1009 29 1200UTC 10.09.2022 144 11.4N 34.2W 1008 33 Also, just looking at Danielle and Earl, alone, per the NHC progs and extending further out, ACE for just about every day through Sept 12 is likely to be above normal at least through then meaning at or above normal ACE days through a good portion of peak season. And this doesn't include any other TC that may develop. If Earl becomes a major (now forecasted), it alone will generate 4+ per day for those days, which would be at a minimum 160% of the highest ACE average for any day for 1991-2020, which is 2.5 (Sept 15th). Per 1991-2020 averages, Sep 1-15 average ACE is 33. 2022 could easily end up 40+ for Sep 1-15. That would be quite an impressive turnaround. If Earl were to become a major on 9/8 and remain that way for several days, a 50+ ACE for Sep 1-15 would not just be a remote possibility, especially considering what else may be out there. I'm still at 120 ACE for this season and 6 NS this month.

The switch has already flipped. From no TCs for 2 months to two at the same time. From no ACE for 2 months to near or above average ACE, which looks to likely continue at least into mid month. So, Derek can't be wrong from my perspective as he's already right.

The latest forecast has max winds at 90 knots when hitting SE S Korea/Busan near 0Z on Sept 6th. If this verifies, it would be near the worst on record there.

1. 1991-2020 ATL ACE daily climo peak period is 8/26-9/22. 2. Daily climo peaks of 1.7+: peak of peak period is 9/6-16 (bolded) with 9/15 the peak day at 2.5 - 8/26: 1.8 - 8/27: 1.7 - 8/28-29: 1.9 - 8/30: 1.8 - 8/31: 2.3 - 9/1-2: 2.4 - 9/3-4: 2.0 - 9/5: 1.9 - 9/6: 2.1 - 9/7: 2.0 - 9/8: 2.3 - 9/9-10: 2.4 - 9/11-12: 2.1 - 9/13: 2.4 - 9/14: 2.3 - 9/15: 2.5 peak day - 9/16: 2.3 - 9/17: 1.8 - 9/18: 1.7 - 9/19-20: 2.0 - 9/21: 1.7 - 9/22: 1.8 3. 9/3-7/22 should each day end up near 2.0 (near climo) Climo source: http://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/Realtime/index.php?loc=northatlantic

Super typhoon Hinnamnor expected to land Busan on Tuesday Super typhoon Hinnamnor, the 11th cyclone for the year, is expected to land on Korea’s Busan and the southern coastal areas in South Gyeongsang Province on Tuesday, changing its course from what has originally been anticipated. By the time Hinnamnor lands on the Korean Peninsula between Monday evening and Tuesday morning, its central pressure is expected to reach between 940 and 950hPa. Typhoon Sarah in 1995 and Typhoon Maemi in 2003, both of which devastated the country, recorded central pressures of 951.5hPa and 954hPa, respectively. https://www.donga.com/en/article/all/20220903/3613183/1 Two worst to hit Busan: 1) 1959 Sarah: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Typhoon_Sarah_(1959) 2) 2003 Maemi: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Typhoon_Maemi

Now that it strengthened, 0Z UKMET has gone way to the right of recent runs. This suggests that had it stayed weak, it could have been more of a danger to hit the US.

The 18Z EPS suggests that the wider 12Z EPS spread was a bit of a fluke because the 18Z has gone back to a narrower spread with fewer US threats at 144 vs 12Z at 150.

But they also found it ~half a degree to the east. Probably a wash.

The 12Z EPS says hold your beer, we can't yet give the all clear to the US as 20% of members do not recurve safely, which is a big increase and is thus the most threatening EPS in a long time. It actually even has about 10% of its members (half the threats) way down SW near the 12Z UKMET!

The 12Z model consensus, including the Euro, says the US is going to be safe from this. This means that the 12Z UKMET moving due west way on down near Cuba is an extreme SW outlier and thus likely wrong like usually is the case when it is a far SW outlier. But if it were to somehow not be wrong, then obviously everything changes and even the Gulf could have a problem. Only a small chance obviously.

I got 0.54" yesterday (9/1).

Yeah, the 12Z UKMET doesn't have it redevelop into a new TC like the 0Z. although it does keep it as a weak surface low as your image shows. Interestingly, the 12Z is back to being far to the south as opposed to being up into the Bahamas in a recurve position with it now moving due west from 65W to 75W to the N coast of E Cuba at the end of the run (144). This position is similar to the 12Z Wed run's 144 but obviously moving much more slowly since it is near the 144 hour position of the run from 48 hours ago. The 12Z 132 hour UKMET position is 100 miles SW of the 0Z 144 and is moving slowly due west as opposed to moving NW like it was on the 0Z run. Of course, with it once again being a SW outlier by several hundred miles again, it could easily be off obviously and that would be the best bet right now. Sometimes the UKMET has a far left bias. We'll see. But if it isn't off and if its very weak low stays intact, this is implying it could eventually (say in 8-10+ days) become a Gulf problem.

Per the last few EPS runs and other ensemble runs, an AEW coming off Africa near 9/6 may be one the US would need to worry about based on low latitude of a good portion of members and moving quite far west within the MDR through 9/11, but that would'nt be til ~9/18 or later.

The 12Z UKMET has a weak low in the Bahamas moving NW and looking to recurve offshore the SE US per the H5 map. This is a significant shift eastward vs prior UKMET runs that had it way down near Cuba moving W to WNW and thus is an expected correction toward the model consensus. Of course, the model consensus, itself, has shifted westward. So, they're coming together toward the middle like often happens.

The map was posted at Storm2K by a subscriber to weather.us. Otherwise, I wouldn't have been able to see it.

1. I ended up with a whopping 13.25" for August, which is nearly twice the normal! 2. Together with the 7" for June and the 11.98" for July, I got a whopping 32.23" this meteorological summer making my water table very high and the mosquitoes happy. The far inland portions of the county got much less. Example: KSAV (airport) got only 18.59", right at normal!

The 18Z UKMET is 100 miles SW of the 12Z run when it ends at hour 60 right over the Leewards. Also, the 18Z Euro at 90 is 100 miles SW of the 12Z Euro at 96. Edit: The 18Z EPS mean also shifted 100 miles SW. Three members go over PR