GaWx

Plenty of thunder from nearby storms the last two days but no rainfall was measured. I remain at a very wet 11.98" MTD.

We're about to get slammed by a band of heavy thunderstorms here at around 2:45 PM. The hits just keep coming! I ended up with 0.36", bringing me to 11.98" for the month so far. Entire month normal is near 7".

Based on this, there was a small gain vs the 2007-2021 area mean between 7/16/22 and 7/20/22: Recap of current area vs avg. of last 15 years as of: 6/15/22: +70K 6/16/22: +120K 6/20/22: +240K 6/22/22: +140K 6/29/22: -140K 7/1/22: +70K 7/10/22: +250K 7/12/22: +370K 7/16/22: +330K 7/20/22: +360K

Germany was the hottest country of this relentless European heatwave today (see image below). 40.3 C/104.5 F was the hottest and 7 of the 16 states set new all-time record highs within the 39.4-40.3 C range! However, the country's all-time hottest of 41.2 C, set 7/25/2019, wasn't reached. Tomorrow is expected to be Poland's hottest day of this awful heatwave as the heat continues to move eastward while areas further west get a reprieve.

I received modest rainfall (0.21") from another mid afternoon thunderstorm today along with some followup light rain later in the afternoon. Now up to 11.62" for July.

Following the big gains vs the average of 2007-2021 from 6/29/22 through 7/12/22, there was a small drop vs that 15 year period mean between 7/12/22 and 7/16/22: Recap of current area vs avg. of last 15 years as of: 6/15/22: +70K 6/16/22: +120K 6/20/22: +240K 6/22/22: +140K 6/29/22: -140K 7/1/22: +70K 7/10/22: +250K 7/12/22: +370K 7/16/22: +330K

I got another storm today, this one at mid afternoon along with some followup steady light rain. It was about three hours worth. Todays amount was a modest 0.18". But even that amount matches the amount from one irrigation and it all soaked in. So, it is all appreciated. I'm now up to 11.41" mtd.

And not to forget much of France, Belgium, Luxembourg, southern Netherlands, and much of Germany: these areas on 7/19/22 had widespread highs from the upper 90s to low 100s F (37-40 C)! Although not posted, I should mention that Spain and Portugal were on fire earlier in the week as well as before that.

7/19/22 UK highs from this link: https://www.meteociel.fr/observations-meteo/tmaxi.php?region=uk

Here is the 37.1 C on a map I got from the @Roger Smith high temp. link. I saw that Hawarden also had that previous record of 35.2 C in 1990. Note that Hawarden clearly sticks out as a hot spot in NE Wales as nearby stations are all 35.5 C or cooler. Some of the variation may be due to elevation differences as Hawarden is low and other differences may be due to more modification from nearby water. Regardless, the fact that the previous hottest Wales location today was 1.9 C/3.4 F hotter is all we need to know to realize the history made.

After getting no measurable rainfall the last 4 days (7/14-17), I just received a decent rain from a thunderstorm over the last hour or so. Before today's rain, I was already at a way wetter than normal 10.73" MTD. Edit: I got 1/2" today, which gets me to 11.23" MTD.

From the 12Z Icon, which I'm posting because I have three hour intervals allowing for 15Z maps, the hottest over the next two days at 2M in Wales and SW England is the 15Z map for today (7/18) (top map) while the hottest for SE England including London is the 15Z map for tomorrow (7/19)(bottom map). The 15Z map for tomorrow is actually cooler than the 12Z map for tomorrow in Wales and SW England due to cooling coming in there earlier that isn't then yet reaching SE England. Based on temperatures that have been posted here, this model run is significantly cooler than reality. Note that the hottest contour on the top map in England (today at 15Z) is only +36 C, which is only 97 F over a small area north of London. The hottest on this top map in Wales is only +33C in far eastern Wales, which is a whopping 4C/7F cooler than the actual hottest of +37C!! Readings of over 100 F have already been noted in England. Assuming these readings are accurately reflecting reality, it appears that there's a significant cold bias at play on this 12Z Icon. With that being the case, look out for tomorrow in SE England, where this run appears to have the hottest near +38 C vs near +36 C today meaning a good 3-4 hotter than today would be implied. IF this run ends up being 4C too cool for tomorrow in SE England, the implication is that they could reach as hot as +42 C (107.6 F) in the hottest spot!!

World SST anomaly map for yesterday (7/17/22): note how warm was the western Mediterranean. Much of it is +3C+ or +5.4+ F warmer than normal. Also, the Bay of Biscay and English Channel are clearly warmer than normal. These are bodies of water that are traversed by the hot air originating in Northern Africa before reaching locations like Spain, France, and the UK. With them being so warm (likely enhanced by AGW), there's less modification by these bodies of water vs if they were closer to normal:

From the 18Z Euro, the peak 500 mb hts over southern England are near 592 dm at 12Z on 7/18/22: This is ~21 dm above the normal of ~571 dm: The peak 850 mb temp anomaly on the 18Z Euro over S. England is +15C to +16C (+27 to +29F) at 3Z on 7/19/22: The peak 2M temperature on the 0Z GFS at London is ~+38C/+100F as of 12z on 7/19/22 but the hottest would likely be near 15Z, which I don't have. The hottest on the 0Z GFS in S England at 12Z on 7/19/22 is near +40C/+104 F, but a 15Z map would likely be hotter. (I'm not familiar with what the GFS 2m temp bias is here.) These 2m temp anomalies are +28 to +30F: The all-time hottest daily low at London is +23.3C or 73.9F, set 7/29/1948. This has a good chance to be beaten on Tue 7/19/22 but we'll have to see if the temp drops back below that before midnight Wednesday: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Climate_of_London This UK heat originated over N Africa and then traveled north to Spain with very little modification from the Mediterranean Sea due to traversing only a narrow portion of it. It will peak in W and N France on 7/18 before peaking in England on 7/19 on steady SSE winds meaning little modification from the English Channel. A surface low to the west of in combination with a surface high to the east is causing this hot wind flow. AGW is likely contributing several degrees to this heat. In other words, without AGW, the same setup would likely result in the peak heat being several degrees cooler than what will occur. I'd love to see the maps for similar intense historic heatwaves to compare things like peak 500 mb hts, 850 mb temps, and surface features. I assume the setups would be similar.

1. She/he has been bearish for the US east coast since almost as far back as the inception of the web lol. 2. With three NS as of July 17th, 2022 has been a hair more active vs the average # of NS as of July 17th in non-El Nino seasons back to 1995, which is 2.7. 3. The # of NS through July 17th for non-Nino seasons back to 1995 has had virtually no predictive power for the remainder of the season. That number of post July 17th storms has averaged 14.1 NS for non-Nino seasons back to 1995, whether active or not through July 17th. 3. After very recently analyzing some data for 3rd year La Niña seasons and comparing them to the prior season (2nd year La Niña), I've decided to lean against a hyperactive 2022. An active season that's more active than the non-Nino season average since 1995? Quite possibly. But hyperactive? I don't think so at this point. More active than 2021's active 146 ACE? While a reasonable possibility as hyperactive is quite a bit above that, I'm currently leaning to ACE not reaching 146. Edit: 4. Based on the same data, I feel that the Gulf coast of FL is at an above normal risk the season.

Thanks for posting. Indeed, this graph clearly shows what I had posted about regarding the slight cooling in summer despite strong warming Sept-April, with strongest warming Jan-Feb.

For the first day in over two months, the averaged Arctic 2m temperature north of 80N (red line) on July 16th went (barely) warmer than the 1958-2002 average (green line). It is ~35 F after being barely above 32 F on July 4th. The average between those two dates only barely rises. This is only one factor of many but it will be interesting to see if melting has started to turn around and increase vs the 2007-2021 average melt over the last few days since the last ORH update, which was done as of July 12th: melt

My last 3 days (7/14-16) of rainfall: 0.03", none, none but heavy nighttime thunderstorms along and offshore the immediate coast moving northerly very early AM produced lots of rumbling thunder and frequent lightning in the eastern sky for several hours 10.73" is my total 7/1-16, one of the heaviest ever for the first half of July and ~triple the normal! Normal for the ENTIRE month is ~7". I'm at 17.73" since June 1st.

Thank you for the detailed reply. I'll need to think through that some more to make sure I understand it. Regarding the line that I quoted from you, would that negative feedback (colder higher latitudes with climate change) eventually result in cooling the lower latitudes back down or at least slow or even stop the warming there? In other words, is GW self-limiting/does it have a ceiling because of this? If so, where is that ceiling?

Thanks for those links. From your 2nd link, I found this interesting graph of Arctic 2m temps N of 80N by decade: 1. Temps warm as one would expect due to GW from the 1960s (dark blue) to the 2010s (red) September-April with the winter having the most intense warming, especially JF. 2. I estimate JF to be a whopping 7C (13F) warmer in the 2010s vs the 1960s (-24C vs -31C). 3. It appears to still be warming steadily Sept-April. In JF, the 2010s are 3C (5F) warmer than the 2000s (-24C vs -27C). 4. The summers, which have much smaller variance (so one will need to look carefully to see this), have oddly enough done the reverse with the 1960s the warmest and the 2010s the coldest for late May through mid-August with the 2010s ~1 F colder than the 1960s. Does less sea ice mean slightly colder in summer? If so, why? Edit: I found this: "When ice melts or water evaporates, energy must be taken from the environment in order for the ice or liquid to move to a less ordered state. Energy is needed to weaken the individual hydrogen bonds between H20 molecules. When water (in any of the three phrases) moves from a higher to a lower ordered state, the air surrounding the H20 will have heat subtracted from it. The three processes that subtract heat from the surrounding air are evaporation, melting and sublimation (solid to gas)." https://www.theweatherprediction.com/habyhints/19/ So, is it because the summers have had increased amounts of melting which then cools the surrounding air more than if there were less melting?? 5. 2022 has been relatively cold since late April on most days after a relatively very warm winter as has been noted ITT. The summer of 2022 has averaged nearly 1C/2F colder than the 1960s. Perhaps that has been helping to slow the melt?

After 6 straight days of measurable rain giving me a total of 6.7", I got none today although there was thunder from a nearby storm.

Hmmm, I must have done something wrong considering how knowledgeable and experienced you are on this, but I can't figure it out yet after looking at it again carefully. Am I doing an apples to oranges comparison? I thought you were looking at "Arctic sea ice area" in sq km. Is the source I used not looking at the same thing? Does it use a different method to measure area? Fwiw, its graph (see below) shows 2009, 2010, 2013 (highest since 2007 with 4.6 msk), 2014, and 2021 all above 4 million square km. It even says this about 2021: "In 2021, the Arctic minimum sea ice covered an area of 4.13 million square kilometers (1.6 million square miles)." Would you please provide a link to your source for annual Arctic minimum area as well as how current sea ice area compares to prior years for the same date? What do you have for 2012's minimum? This has ~2.9 million sq km: https://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/5002

Last season had two Mid-Atlantic/NE US TS landfalls, the first season since way back in 1985 (Gloria and Henri). Before that, you had to go back to 1971 (Doria and Heidi). Others before that in that area with 2 TS+ landfalls in one season: 1961 (Esther and unnamed), 1960 (Brenda and Donna), and 1954 (Carol and Edna). So, 37 years since the last one and only an average of one every 14 years for two landfalls since 1950. Since 1950, only a little over 1/3 of seasons had at least one TS+ landfall. Thus, I still think you're downplaying 2021 a bit too much. You already called it weak and tame in other posts. You're making it sound like it was so quiet.

Yeah, I realized that when I posted though it certainly can get confusing. I said: "But it does appear that the chance of it being at or above the 2007-21 average minimum of 3.9 msk has increased quite a bit vs how it looked on June 29th. Along with this, it appears that the chance for a September SIE at or above 4.8 msk has increased. That compares to the rough average Sept. extent of 4.7 msk for 2007-21 based on the Sept. SIE graph that @bluewaveshowed Monday." So, I first referred to an increased chance for the minimum area to be 3.9+ msk (at or above the 2007-21 average minimum area). Then I referred to an increased chance for the September extent (SIE) to be 4.8+ msk (near or above the 2007-21 average minimum extent).

Based on these numbers, the last two days have continued the significant increase based on the date of 2022 area vs the 2007-21 average area that started ~6/29. As of 7/12, the 2022 area was +370K vs the 2007-21 average. This is a 510K increase vs the 2007-21 average just since June 29th (see table below). Based on the graph at the bottom of this post of the minimum area for 2007-21, I roughly estimate an average minimum area for 2007-21 of 3.9 msk. The range in msk is roughly 2.9 to 4.6. If the +370K vs 2007-21 average were to still be the case when the 2022 minimum is hit, that would mean a 2022 minimum area of ~4.3 msk. If that were to occur, that would mean a minimum higher than all years 2007-21 except for 2009, 2013, and 2014. However, having a +370K vs 2007-21 at the minimum of the year is very optimistic, especially considering the near record low multiyear ice levels as of last September that @bluewaveposted about yesterday. So, average ice thickness was then at near record lows. Thus, I think that the chance of this year's minimum being significantly lower than 4.3 msk is high. But it does appear that the chance of it being at or above the 2007-21 average minimum of 3.9 msk has increased quite a bit vs how it looked on June 29th. Along with this, it appears that the chance for a September SIE at or above 4.8 msk has increased. That compares to the rough average Sept. extent of 4.7 msk for 2007-21 based on the Sept. SIE graph that @bluewaveshowed Monday. Recap of current area vs avg. of last 15 years as of: 6/15/22: +70K 6/16/22: +120K 6/20/22: +240K 6/22/22: +140K 6/29/22: -140K 7/1/22: +70K 7/10/22: +250K 7/12/22: +370K Graph of Arctic annual ice area minimum since late 1970s from https://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/5002