GaWx

Preliminary indications are that the Oct PNA will likely end up within the +0.85 to +1.15 range. If so, that would put it in the upper part of the most common range of past El Niño Oct PNAs preceding cool to cold SE winters: 1965: +1.14 cool 1977: +0.98 cold 1986: +0.92 cool 2014: +0.89 cool 1963: +0.69 cold

1. I have OND of 2009 as neutral IOD (barely positive) and definitely not negative per this: https://psl.noaa.gov/gcos_wgsp/Timeseries/Data/dmi.had.long.data 2. DJF 2009-10 was only one year after the prior deep minimum and thus sunspots were still very low.

The Oct 2023 MJO averaged out is going to end up weak in magnitude. Because of a partial correlation of Oct magnitude to the subsequent winter magnitude, there’s a better than average chance for a weak MJO averaged out this winter. During the winter periods when weak has dominated for a long enough time, especially near or inside the COD, they have tended to average colder (BN) for much of the E US, especially SE, during El Niños compared to when the MJO has been stronger as I’ve posted about. So, when you say you’re expecting the MJO to be weak, I (as one who’d prefer a BN winter) like what you’re saying.

12Z UKMET: similar to 0Z run with a W heading 108-168 at ~10 mph slightly N of 0Z run: HURRICANE TAMMY ANALYSED POSITION : 18.9N 62.6W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL202023 LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 22.10.2023 0 18.9N 62.6W 998 50 0000UTC 23.10.2023 12 20.2N 63.8W 1000 38 1200UTC 23.10.2023 24 21.4N 63.7W 1001 42 0000UTC 24.10.2023 36 22.2N 63.3W 1000 42 1200UTC 24.10.2023 48 22.6N 62.9W 1001 38 0000UTC 25.10.2023 60 22.8N 62.6W 1001 30 1200UTC 25.10.2023 72 23.7N 61.4W 999 36 0000UTC 26.10.2023 84 25.0N 59.7W 996 54 1200UTC 26.10.2023 96 26.7N 59.1W 995 49 0000UTC 27.10.2023 108 27.2N 61.0W 997 43 1200UTC 27.10.2023 120 27.7N 64.0W 998 45 0000UTC 28.10.2023 132 27.7N 67.7W 995 39 1200UTC 28.10.2023 144 27.5N 69.8W 997 36 0000UTC 29.10.2023 156 27.6N 71.5W 1000 37 1200UTC 29.10.2023 168 27.2N 73.4W 1003 33

The 0Z UKMET at the end (168) has a 590 dm H5 ridge centered over the GOM and a trough dipping down into the SW US (see image below) moving very slowly E with TS Tammy blocked in and thus then moving just N of due W at just under 10 mph. It is hard to tell what she would do after this point had the maps gone out further although a subsequent continued W heading would be most likely at first although soon after I would think it would start to recurve as the blocking high eventually weakens and gives way:

Maybe not so soon to be forgotten? The 0Z UKMET has a mainly westbound to WNW moving Tammy hours 120-168: HURRICANE TAMMY ANALYSED POSITION : 17.5N 61.5W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL202023 LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 0000UTC 22.10.2023 0 17.5N 61.5W 999 48 1200UTC 22.10.2023 12 18.7N 62.4W 1003 45 0000UTC 23.10.2023 24 19.8N 63.5W 1003 41 1200UTC 23.10.2023 36 20.8N 63.7W 1004 39 0000UTC 24.10.2023 48 21.7N 63.8W 1004 36 1200UTC 24.10.2023 60 22.1N 63.5W 1004 37 0000UTC 25.10.2023 72 21.2N 64.2W 1004 29 1200UTC 25.10.2023 84 21.4N 63.3W 1003 30 0000UTC 26.10.2023 96 21.7N 62.2W 1001 31 1200UTC 26.10.2023 108 23.5N 61.7W 999 37 0000UTC 27.10.2023 120 24.9N 61.7W 999 41 1200UTC 27.10.2023 132 25.9N 63.7W 999 39 0000UTC 28.10.2023 144 26.6N 66.8W 998 40 1200UTC 28.10.2023 156 26.2N 69.4W 997 36 0000UTC 29.10.2023 168 26.4N 71.2W 1000 37

Followup: Let’s say Oct PDO ends up at -1.5, which would mean a rise of 1.44 from Sep and would easily be the third strongest PDO rise in Oct for El Niño since the 1850s. The following five Nino autumns had a PDO rise of 1+ from Sep to Oct along with these E US winters to follow: 1969: 2.02 (weak); cold winter w/PDO +1.07 1880: 1.79 (weak); cool to cold winter w/PDO -0.23 1876: 1.08 (moderate); cool to cold winter w/PDO -0.15 2006: 1.08 (weak); normal winter w/PDO -0.61 1986: 1.03 (moderate); normal E US winter w/PDO +1.55 So, none of these five were mild. If the winter PDO were to be above -1 and especially above -0.75, I’d think that the PDO wouldn’t likely be a mild influence. The odds of a sub -1 Nino winter PDO are low considering there has been a mere two of the last 50 (4%) at sub -1 (1994-5 and 1951-2). *Edited for correction to add 1951-2

Whereas SST charts near Japan suggest a significant PDO rise has occurred, which I strongly believe, I still would recommend caution before accepting this from WCS as accurate, especially after a rise of 2.3 in just 2.5 weeks. WCS appears to be a private co. as opposed to governmental fwiw. I use this from NOAA for monthly PDO: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/ersst/v5/index/ersst.v5.pdo.dat Looking at the monthlies, WCS has been much less negative than NOAA: -Jan is ~-0.75 per WCS graph while NOAA is -1.25 -Feb is ~-0.8 per WCS vs -1.65 per NOAA -Mar is ~-1.3 per WCS vs -2.45 per NOAA. -Apr ~-2 WCS vs -3.07 NOAA. -May/Jun ~-1.5 WCS vs -2.42/-2.53 NOAA. -Jul ~-1.75 WCS vs -2.52 NOAA -Aug ~-1.6 WCS vs -2.46 NOAA -Sep ~-2.25 WCS vs -2.94 NOAA So, on average, WCS has been coming in at ~63% of NOAA. But they have been mostly moving in the same direction from month to month. Thus, NOAA has very likely also risen substantially so far this month and thus it wouldn’t shock me if it comes in near -1.5 for Oct vs Sept’s -2.94.

Going back to 1951-2, I can’t find a single El Niño analog to the upcoming moderate+ El Niño, -QBO (30mb), and +IOD winter. The closest may be 1972-3 as it was a moderate+ with +IOD. It had a -QBO that was still solid in Dec but it rose rapidly and was already neutral by late Jan.

Way down here on the SE coast, it can never be too cold from my perspective. I mean hopefully the 1-2 F BN on the model isn’t going to end up colder than what verifies because the model has been a good bit too cold in the past at times.

Regardless of the details, it is highly likely that the Oct-Dec IOD will be near or at the highest on record for El Niño. I’m betting heavily that it will be amongst the warmest IOD Oct-Dec periods for El Niño, which are in order from strongest 1997, 2018, 1972, 2006, 1994, and 2015. Even 1997 looks to be challenged. Edit: I should add that with IOD averages tending to increase somewhat in recent decades vs earlier that there probably is a GW influence that warms the IOD somewhat despite it being a dipole. Look no further than the non-Nino of fall of 2019! But regardless, the current IOD is very impressive.

1. I’m willing to bet that a typical +2+ ONI peak of past El Nino events would have had at least a small area of +3+ nearer to the equator. Even a high +1+ ONI could possibly support a narrow +3+ area there since the center portion is always significantly warmer than the ONI level. 2. Do you know what climo base is used for the 2m temp anomalies by JAMSTEC? 3. Hopefully this run isn’t too cold in the SE as it has been significantly too cold before. I’d sure love a 1-2 F BN DJF, the coldest on the entire map!

Every month of June-Oct have had a +PNA despite the very strong -PDO during the same period. Are there any implications?

Showing an area >+3.0 SSTS isn’t as absurd as it seems because it is only a small area. It goes only between 1.5N and 2S latitude at its widest point, which stretches only across ~15 degrees of longitude centered on 120W, the middle of Nino 3 and the far E end of Nino 3.4. Keep in mind that Nino 3 and 3.4 stretch from 5N to 5S, a 10 degree swath. So, the +3+ covers only ~1/3 of this at its widest, which stretches only across ~15 deg of longitude vs Nino 3’s 60 degrees of longitude or 1/4 of it. So, the +3+ area covers not much more than 10% of the entire Nino 3 and well <10% of Nino 3.4. Even the +2+ area covers <50% of Nino 3/3.4 meaning the +1 to +2 area covers 50%+ of Nino 3/3.4. So, Nino 3 likely averages only in the low +2’s at most on this map and Nino 3.4 is probably only ~+2 at most. For reference, TAO is already ~+2.5 in a portion of 120W and a little warmer than that just to the east.

Looking at the ONI chart, it barely missed a triple. Also, 2018-9 to 2019-20 barely missed a double. https://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ONI_v5.php

That’s actually likely since most peak in Oct or Nov. So, that wouldn’t change the equation.

There appear to be some questionable classifications in this per the IOD source I use: - 1987, 2002, and 2009 don’t belong in the -IOD column as Oct-Dec averaged positive for all three years - 1986 doesn’t belong in the +IOD column since Oct-Dec IOD averaged negative - 2018 (+), 2014 (+), 1976 (-), 1969 (-), and 1953 (-) were all left out - Note that the presented graphs were for NDJ rather than DJF - However, for the E US even after making these adjustments/additions/change from NDJ to DJF, the avg precip for +IOD still comes out AN/much wetter than that for -IOD while the avg temperature for +IOD still comes out significantly warmer than that for -IOD. You learn something new every day but this isn’t what I wanted to see for upcoming winter BN temp. chances. Thus, next El Niño I’ll be rooting for a -IOD. My monthly IOD source: https://psl.noaa.gov/gcos_wgsp/Timeseries/Data/dmi.had.long.data

The -SOI streak is still going. The current -SOI streak has just hit 60 days. Looking at model progs, it looks like it will reach at least 64 days. There’s a chance it will just make it to 66 days, which would tie it with 2015 for the 3rd longest since June 1991. This is a form of atmospheric coupling of El Niño: Longest -SOI streaks in days since June 1991: 100: Days 3-102 of 1998 72: Days 195-266 of 1997 66: Days 248-313 of 2015 60: Days 232-291 of 2023 and still going 55: Days 191-245 of 2015 46: Days 268-313 of 1997 46: Days 6-51 of 2010 43: Days 175-217 of 1994 https://data.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/SeasonalClimateOutlook/SouthernOscillationIndex/SOIDataFiles/DailySOI1887-1989Base.txt

Keeping in mind the high level of inaccuracy of the EPS weeklies, today’s version does have slightly higher H5 ht anomalies (slightly above normal) over Greenland and Iceland than to the south (near normal). Whereas the actual calculation of the NAO is based on SLP anomalies in Iceland and the Azores, H5 ht anomaly differences are often used to give a general idea due to a significant correlation. So, weeks 2-4 of Nov are leaning -NAO on this run after a neutralish week 1.

1. As mentioned before, there’s little correlation of both summer and Oct NAO to winter NAO. So, this means that having a strong -NAO this past summer and having one this month don’t, when looked at alone, increase the chance for a -NAO this winter. Based on progs, the Oct NAO has a very good shot to be within -1.6 to -2.1 (top 10 -NAO Oct since 1950) and may end up as the 5th lowest Oct NAO since 1950 (93 percentile). 1960, 1968, 1980, 1992, 1997, 2002, 2006, 2012, and 2021 had the 9 lowest Oct NAOs. How was the subsequent DJF NAO for these 9? 1960: +0.31 1968: -1.26 1980: +0.69 1992: +0.86 1997: -0.23 2002: -0.05 2006: +0.36 2012: +0.02 2021: +1.02 So, of these 9, only one (1968) had a -NAO winter to follow though it was strong. Three were neutral and five had a +NAO. 2. Whereas I found no correlation of Oct -NAO to winter -NAO, I do see what appears to be a pretty good correlation of a sub -0.75 Nov NAO to Dec -NAO. For the sub -0.75 Novembers, here were the Dec NAOs: 1950 -1.02 1952 -0.43 1955 +0.17 1963 -1.92 1965 +1.37 1968 -1.40 1969 -0.28 1973 +0.32 1983 +0.29 1995 -1.67 1997 -0.96 2000 -0.58 2010 -1.85 So, following a sub -0.75 Nov NAO, the following Decembers 9 of the 13 times had a -NAO, once had neutral, and three times had a +NAO. Out of the 13, five had a strong -NAO vs only one with a strong +NAO. Four out of the 5 El Niño cases had a -NAO Dec. So, what this is telling me is that if we can get a sub -0.75 next month, I’d actually feel good about the chance for a -NAO in Dec. So, I’ll soon start following the models for Nov NAO hints. Keep in mind though that only two of the nine lowest Oct NAOs were followed by a sub -0.75 Nov. due to no more than a small correlation.

Not only that, but I think we have a good shot at 1-2 months of DJF with an overall weak MJO (including many days inside the COD) hopefully with a lean toward the left side for the upcoming DJF. I say that because of the weak MJO so far this month (see below) along with the expectation based on model consensus that Oct 2023 as a whole will come in weak. Looking back at the 16 prior El Niños back to 1976-7, I found these 6 (38% of them) with weak MJO Octobers: 1977, 1982, 1987, 1997, 2002, and 2014. Here’s the subsequent MJO amp for DJF for these 6 weak Oct MJO cases: -D was weak 3 times, moderate twice, and strong once. -J was also weak 3 times, moderate twice, and strong once. -F was weak 3 times, moderate once, and strong twice. Now I’ll look at moderate Oct MJOs during El Niño: 1976, 1986, 1991, 1994, 2004, 2009, 2015, 2018. -D weak once (2004), moderate 5 times, strong twice -J also weak once (1977), moderate 5 times, strong twice -F also weak once (1977), moderate 5 times, strong twice So when comparing weak Oct MJO to moderate Oct MJO during El Nino, the moderate Oct tend to keep it mainly moderate in winter vs being weak more often than moderate during winter following a weak Oct MJO. So, it appears that during El Niño there’s some correlation of Oct MJO amplitude and the subsequent winter MJO amplitude based on weak vs moderate Oct stats. This image shows how weak the MJO has been this month so far:

Whether we’d get it or not, we’d be overdue for a -PNA or at least neutral PNA month in Nov. June-Sep were all +PNA months. Also, there’s a near certainty for Oct to do the same. There have been only 3 other years since 1950 with all of June-Oct having a +PNA (all +0.45+ in the current case). I don’t count 1960 and 1964 because they had lowest PNA months of +0.04/+0.15 within June-Oct, which I consider neutral.

The Oct 1-16, 2023, PNA after doubling the dailies to approximate what the monthly calculation would be is ~+2. However, it is about to fall sharply and is progged to be a -PNA for ~10/22-31. Though it will still easily end up a +PNA for Oct as a whole, this sharp fall will bring down this +2 significantly. How far is the question. For El Niño winters since 1950, here are the Oct PNA along with the nature of the subsequent winter’s temperatures in the SE US: 1953: +1.91 warm 2015: +1.78 warm 1979: +1.53 normal 1965: +1.14 cool 1977: +0.98 cold 1986: +0.92 cool 2014: +0.89 cool 1963: +0.69 cold 1976: +0.68 cold 1987: +0.53 cool 2009: +0.43 cold 1969: +0.35 cold 1957: +0.27 cold 1968: +0.26 cool 1951: +0.24 warm 2018: +0.21 warm 1958: +0.16 normal 1994: -0.23 mild 1997: -0.26 mild 2002: -0.65 cool 2006: -0.84 mild 1982: -0.93 normal 2004: -1.39 normal 1972: -1.50 normal 1991: -2.28 warm Although there’s likely some randomness involved, the fact that all 11 El Niño winters following an Oct with a PNA within the interval +0.26 to +1.14 were cool or cold and 11 of the 12 cool to cold Nino winters (out of a total of 25 Nino winters) followed an Oct with a PNA in that range seems pretty significant. It tells me that if the Oct 2023 PNA were to end up in that range that the chance for a BN SE 2023-4 winter would be higher than the ~45% for an El Niño winter in general and the ~33% chance for all SE winters.

Would you please post the 850 mb temps? What period is used for the climo base for the anomalies?

Do you have the 2 meter temperature maps?