GaWx

Although yesterday had no rainfall at KSAV, there currently is an isolated thunderstorm over KSAV currently.

2023-4 cannot be unpinned. Its destiny is to be pinned for eternity because it did everything it wasn’t supposed to do and thus it’s important we learn from our mistakes.

Please pin this thread and unpin the El Niño 2023-4 thread. 2024-5 La Niña thread remaining pinned is ok since it’s still active. TIA @stormtracker @jburns @ORH_wxman

Columbia, SC, has had 6.83” during May 1-12. Going back to 1888, that’s the 2nd wettest for 5/1-12 with only 2002 slightly wetter at 7.64”!

Road closures throughout the Coastal Empire caused by flooding: CANDLER COUNTY, Ga. (WSAV) – After weekend storms, many roads are still washed out or impassable in rural parts of the Coastal Empire, like Bulloch, Tattnall and Candler counties. WSAV visited Candler County Monday and found several dirt roads flooded with ankle-deep water as well as significant infrastructure damage in some areas. When asked about the flooding Candler County Sheriff John Miles said, “We’ve seen between five and ten inches of rain, and what that did was impact a lot of our county roads. We had some roads that were just muddy, and we had some roads that were almost completely washed out.” https://www.yahoo.com/news/road-closures-throughout-coastal-empire-031945720.html

At KSAV (airport), rainfall is already up to a whopping 7.9” for May 1-12! That’s over 6 times the normal for that period and more than double the normal for the full month. It is already up to 9th wettest May on record back to the 1870s and 2nd wettest to 1915 for the wettest May 1-12 on record. There remains lots of standing water in low spots, including the back portion of MBY. Other than the flooding in some low areas, this has been quite beneficial since the area had just been in a moderate drought per the monitor.

My area had still another ~2” of rain mainly early this morning per rain gauge and Cocorahs. This brings 48 hour totals up to ~5” and 96 hour totals up to 6”+! I even had some water in my garage though not too bad.

Thanks. Sounds like a good and reasonable summary, snowman. The only things I’d like to add are: -Sunspot #s for this winter will likely be lower than the prior winter’s even though still elevated -Per RONI there could easily be another moderate peaking La Nina

I didn’t see any significant reported damage in the area though there was a house reported to have been hit by lightning on Skidaway Island. The lightning was pretty frequent with 1-2 CTG strikes nearby. The wind never was high and there was no hail. The rain had the largest impact with a pretty long period (~2 hours) of moderate to heavy though no street flooding was noted. I had only a minimal amount of water coming into the garage mainly on the side nearest to the storage room. Fortunately, I’ve had modifications and repairs done to the area at/near the garage door since last autumn. Those likely helped. The total rainfall in the area has been generous over the last 3 days combined, which is very beneficial considering being in a drought. Edit: Per Cocorahs, the area near me has had 4+” of rain (3+ yesterday, alone) for the last 3 days, combined. This is very beneficial. Much more likely to come for today/tomorrow (5/11-12).

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC 758 PM EDT SAT MAY 10 2025 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHARLESTON HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF... CHATHAM COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA... * UNTIL 845 PM EDT. * AT 758 PM EDT, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR MONTGOMERY, MOVING NORTH AT 15 MPH. HAZARD...TORNADO. SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION. IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE TO ROOFS, WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... MIDTOWN SAVANNAH, COFFEE BLUFF, WINDSOR FOREST, WILMINGTON ISLAND, HUNTER ARMY AIRFIELD, DOWNTOWN SAVANNAH, MONTGOMERY, VERNONBURG, SKIDAWAY ISLAND AND ISLE OF HOPE.

3rd day in a row with thunderstorms in my area!

My nephew near Druid Hills area of Dekalb County near Atlanta just felt an earthquake in his bed. The quake was a 4.1 centered in TN:

Chuck, If you’d look real closely at the cycles, you’d actually see that the average length from min to max is significantly shorter than that for max to min: Cycle: Min to Max (years)/Max to Min (years) 1: 6/5 2: 3/6 3: 3/6 4: 3/11 5: 6/6 6: 6/7 7: 7/3 8: 4/6 9: 5/8 10: 4/7 11: 3/8 12: 5/6 13: 4/8 14: 4/8 15: 4/6 16: 5/5 17: 4/7 18: 3/7 19: 3/7 20: 4/8 21: 3/7 22: 3/7 23: 4/8 24: 6/5 (25: likely 5/?) Avg of 1-24: 4.3/6.8 % of cycles with shorter rise than fall: 79% % with opposite only 13% —————— Aside: -% with 11 year cycle only 25% though 11 is the average; 29% had 10 year (the mode) -Range 9-14 -Next min very likely within 2030-32. https://www.sidc.be/SILSO/DATA/SN_y_tot_V2.0.txt

You lost me with the bolded.

Thanks. 1) So, for the 6 years, is this correct going from the most -NAO to the most +NAO? min+2 min +1 min max max +1 max +2 2) It’s too bad we can’t see the other 5 years of the 11 year average cycle. But with cycles’ length differing cycle to cycle as opposed to always being 11 yrs, perhaps it would be less useful to go out 3-5 years from max.

Can you do Solar min out to +24 months?

Would you please do this for other years of the cycle?

It waited til later vs yesterday, but it was really coming down a few minutes ago! I’m on garage watch

Thanks, Chuck. Winters (DJF) with avg of sub -0.25 NAO: -16 of 25 (64%) of 1954-5 through 1978-9 -6 of 45 (13%) of 1979-80 through 2024-5 (1984-5, 1986-7, 1995-6, 2009-10, 2010-11, 2020-1)

The east tropical Atlantic (20-60W) has warmed rapidly over the last week:

This afternoon was the rainiest and most thunderstormy in quite a long time in this area! Lots of street flooding. The rush hour traffic was a big mess!

Thanks. Andy H said: “If this forecast is accurate, we could see the 3 big NH basins (West Pacific, East Pacific, Atlantic) all struggle to produce TCs this year.” You never know as he may be into something. But based on the Euro and other things and the fact that no El Niño is forecasted, this sounds quite a bit overdone for the Atlantic basin. The ATL could imho easily have a NN season as the Euro predicts. But having a quiet season there seems unlikely to me. And I’m saying this being someone near the coast who would love nothing better than the lowered stress of a quiet season with last year being particularly bad. The SE US is overdue for a low stress season. But I don’t forecast based on my desires/wishcast.

Charlie, You’re making virtually the same point I was suspecting about Dr. V’s confusing (to me) thoughts about the wind speed. He was thinking the paper was saying sfc winds increased at 40 degrees latitude instead of upper winds shifting N. I thought I might have been lost. But with you matching my thoughts, I feel more confident Dr. V misunderstood. Yeah, Dr. V was focused on only the Atlantic portion instead of also including the Pacific portion at 40N. I didn’t understand why. I agree that Dr. V’s point about the narrow baseline period as well as where the paper’s starting period (2005) was are valid concerns.

Thanks, Ray. I also wonder about CC’s effect. -Don’t forget 2009-10 -Including March actually brings 2012-13 into the list due to the -1.61 in March making DM average -0.39 -Including March would take 2020-1 out for me because DM averaged only -0.14, which I call neutral -Based on DJF, I have 2009-10, 2010-11, and 2020-21. Based on DJFM, I have 2000-01, 2009-10, 2010-11, and 2012-13.

Charlie and others, Dr. Arthur Viterito responded to this paper by Trenberth et al. He doesn’t buy it. However, I feel like Dr. Viterito may be going a bit off on tangents and thus may be addressing items that are irrelevant or deceiving. He may also be misunderstanding what the paper is saying. I’d like to see what others think about this response: —————— So, one is led to believe that stronger winds are driving warmer and stronger currents in these narrow bands. Furthermore, that strengthening commenced in 2005 and has proceeded through 2023. If we examine the global zonal wind anomaly (surface) since 1940, we see the following: The global trend in zonal windspeed is slightly negative, not positive (Y=-0.0003X - .0067). The time series of zonal winds for the 40 degree North latitude band is depicted in the following graph: An important detail that must be noted is that Trenberth et al. used the 2000 through 2004 timeframe as their baseline. A baseline which is that short is very unusual as baselines of 30 years or more are the accepted norm in climate analysis. This questionable "baselining" of the data is, in my opinion, a serious flaw that can skew the results. I will adjust to a 30 baseline (1971-2000) and analyze off of that.