GaWx

Will CAE finally reach 100? They’ve already reached 99.

12Z UKMET has moved TCG back up to Sunday (AM) and in E GOM. Becomes TS Mon night. It initially moves WNW followed by slowly SW/SSW after hr 144 into N Central GOM, similar to 0Z run (slow movement throughout): NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 42 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 42 : 26.9N 84.8W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 19.07.2026 48 27.4N 85.1W 1012 25 0000UTC 20.07.2026 60 27.8N 85.7W 1009 26 1200UTC 20.07.2026 72 28.2N 86.5W 1008 27 0000UTC 21.07.2026 84 28.1N 87.3W 1005 31 1200UTC 21.07.2026 96 27.9N 87.5W 1002 38 0000UTC 22.07.2026 108 28.6N 87.6W 1000 43 1200UTC 22.07.2026 120 29.3N 88.2W 1003 44 0000UTC 23.07.2026 132 29.5N 88.6W 1004 35 1200UTC 23.07.2026 144 29.2N 89.1W 1005 33 0000UTC 24.07.2026 156 28.4N 89.5W 1003 36 1200UTC 24.07.2026 168 27.7N 89.7W 1002 40

The CFS AAM at this site FINALLY updated for the 1st time in 2 weeks! Prior run from July 3rd: New one from today: +2 now but progged on 7/25 to drop to +1 vs the ~+2.2 mean on old run; progged mean doesn’t rise back to +2 til Aug 4th. Old run mean for Aug 4th was way up >+3. All of this is added evidence of a significant + bias out >2 weeks. Regardless, +AAM in full control, which is continued evidence of an intact steadily strengthening Nino:

Sure enough, Darwin on July 16th exceeded 1018 mb for only the 2nd day since daily records started in 1991, a sign of El Niño. It reached 1018.25, which trailed only the 1018.35 of 21 years ago! https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/soi/

The UKMET (0Z), after having dropped this from TCG, brought back TCG. Also, unlike the 2 Wednesday runs that had it form on Sun in NE Gulf followed by a NE move across FL, this run delays development til Tue and then moves it slowly WSW: NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 120 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+120 : 28.8N 86.2W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 0000UTC 22.07.2026 120 28.8N 86.2W 1008 32 1200UTC 22.07.2026 132 28.8N 86.6W 1008 33 0000UTC 23.07.2026 144 28.5N 87.5W 1005 39 1200UTC 23.07.2026 156 28.5N 88.6W 1003 40 0000UTC 24.07.2026 168 27.9N 89.5W 995 48

CFSv2 latest 10 day mean of JFM 2m anomalies is beautiful fwiw: Same for precip: Whereas this looks great and I’d love for it to verify closely, it’s important to keep in mind the following for the NE US regarding 15 years of mid-July CFSv2 JFM prog verifications (2012-26): -Too cold 6 yrs/40% (including 4 much too cold): ‘24, ‘23, ‘21, ‘20, ‘17, ‘12 -Too warm 4 yrs/27% (including one much too warm): ‘26, ‘22, ‘15, ‘14 -Close 5 yrs/33%: ‘25, ‘19, ‘18, ‘16, ‘13 Overall averages a cold bias in the NE, especially since 4 much too cold and only one much too warm. OTOH, only 6 of 15 (40%) were too cold…so not a strong cold bias and thus there’s still a reasonable level of hope that it could verify well. —————————— The cold bias in the SE is even stronger: -Too cold 8 years/53% (including 4 much too cold): ‘24, ‘23, ‘21, ‘20, ‘19, ‘17, ‘16, ‘12 -Too warm 5 years/33% (but none much too warm): ‘26, ‘25, ‘22, ‘15, ‘14 -Close 2 years/13%: ‘18 and ‘13 ————————— Interestingly, this cold JFM 2027 CFSv2 forecast isn’t a whole lot colder than the following one also made in mid-July for JFM 2016 (which similarly followed a super Nino peak) as it has a fairly similar pattern (just not as cold): This is what verified: so, CFSv2 was close in NE but too cold in the S 1/2 of US:

We’ll likely exceed 1997’s 72 days, which would put it as 2nd longest on record (back to 1991). But #1 (from 1998) is way up at 100 days. I have no idea if it will get that high. With that still being 33 days away, it would be quite awhile before I could even try to forecast whether or not it will be reached. Since that would be quite the accomplishment, I feel chances are well under 50% as of now. Let’s see how things go.

At just before 8PM, I started getting mainly light to occasionally moderate rain. The relevant convection had developed nearby as a result of an E moving outflow boundary colliding with the seabreeze front. But what had been a heavy thunderstorm weakened by the time it started here. So, whereas this is measurable, it still isn’t much. Edit: I got only ~0.04”.

Today, we made it to 67 straight -SOI days, which puts the current streak in 3rd place back to 1991! So, this one is behind only two from the 1997-8 Nino. Reaching and possibly exceeding 2nd place ‘97’s 72 days is likely as of now. How long will it go?

After 2 runs forming a TS from this, the last 2 runs dropped that and instead both develop something well out in the Atlantic subtropics: 0Z 7/16/26 UKMET NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 156 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+156 : 27.9N 63.9W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 22.07.2026 156 27.9N 63.9W 1014 29 0000UTC 23.07.2026 168 30.6N 66.2W 1013 31 —————————— 12Z 7/16/26 UKMET NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 150 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+150 : 28.4N 62.9W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 0000UTC 23.07.2026 156 29.1N 63.9W 1014 30 1200UTC 23.07.2026 168 32.3N 65.2W 1014 31

My area has had some thunderstorms pop-up with light rain starting ~2PM. This may not amount to too much.

The latest daily OISST anomaly update for 3.4 had a warming of a whopping 0.13C, which is the largest rise since June 4th. This is the kind of move that will probably be needed from time to time to get August averaged out up to the mid +2s:

Believable but will it actually happen? Nobody knows. Largest month to month warming on record is 0.85 (Jan ‘56). The largest warming on record in Aug is 0.61 (1988). Actually, the largest on record of any month July-Oct is only that 0.61. Here are the largest on record: 0.85 Jan 1956 0.84 June 1968 0.78 Mar 1951 0.73 Feb 1976 0.71 May 2026 0.68 Nov 2009 0.68 Mar 2000 0.66 May 1967 0.61 Aug 1988 0.61 Jan 1975 0.60 Oct 1991 0.60 Jan 1953 https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/Rnino34.ascii.txt @Typhoon Tip

That CFS graph is referring to relative 3.4 anomalies, which are currently in the +1.3 to +1.5 region rather than ~+2.0. Actually, the official relative 3.4 for last week was only +1.3: 08JUL2026 2.6 1.7 1.3 0.5 https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/rel_wksst9120.txt The CFS latest 10 day mean prog has a whopping +2.3 for relative 3.4 in August! August will be a really big test to see if the progged record breaking Nino is still on track as that would require a near 1C rise from July! Going back to the start of records in 1950, there has never been a 1C+ rise within just one month. I‘m talking about any month in any ENSO. Will it actually warm that much in August?? https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/rel_wksst9120.txt

Unlike the very mild Feb 1878 in the upper Midwest, the E US’ warmest month of that winter was the fairly typical El Niño warmest Dec. In contrast, Feb was only modestly AN in a good portion of the NE to NN in the SE. Jan was NN to BN. Jan-Feb combined in much of the E US wasn’t mild at all and instead was largely NN (no more than slightly AN in the NE and even BN in good part of SE).

This map agrees with many of the official SE station temps being NN (and even BN in FL as Jacksonville and other official temps confirm). It also shows that the torch was centered in the Midwest and Plains with no torch near the E coast (ex: NYC was ~+1.3F, not a torch). Much of NE coast was only 1-2 F AN per the city by city official temps.

More on the not mild 1877-8 in much of the E US: NYC using 1869-1900 for normals Dec 37.4 (+3.2) AN Jan 29.9 (-0.4) NN Feb 32.3 (+1.2) NN So, DJF +1.3 NN with only Dec warmer than normal and even it wasn’t a torch https://www.weather.gov/wrh/Climate?wfo=okx @csnavywx

However in the SE US, as has often been the case with super El Niño winters, 1877-8, was actually near normal (mild Dec, cold Jan, and NN Feb). For example, Asheville was mild in Dec but then had a cold and snowy Jan (8.5” from 2 storms) followed by a NN Feb. DJF averaged NN. https://www.weather.gov/wrh/Climate?wfo=gsp Also, Augusta and Savannah averaged NN.

CFS Oct 1-10 mean prog for JFM ‘16: Actual: fairly close N tier but too cold S 1/2:

A shower with moderate to heavy rain just popped right over my area at 3PM. Edit: My total was only ~0.1”, which gets me to ~4.15” MTD.

12Z UKMET fairly similar to 0Z run but SE of that track: NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 96 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 96 : 27.0N 83.0W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 19.07.2026 96 27.0N 83.0W 1012 27 0000UTC 20.07.2026 108 27.2N 82.5W 1010 23 1200UTC 20.07.2026 120 28.3N 81.3W 1012 29 0000UTC 21.07.2026 132 30.0N 79.1W 1008 31 1200UTC 21.07.2026 144 31.8N 77.6W 1004 39 0000UTC 22.07.2026 156 33.8N 75.5W 1001 41 1200UTC 22.07.2026 168 CEASED TRACKING

Further to my CFSv2 post above, here’s how the CFSv2 did in the E US with their mid-July forecasts for the subsequent JFM: For ‘26 (Nina) too warm For ‘25 (Nina): close NE; too warm SE For ‘24 (Nino): too cold, especially NE For ‘23 (Nina): much too cold, esp. NE For ‘22 (Nina): overall a bit too warm For ‘21 (Nina): a bit too cold For ‘20 (warm neutral): much too cold (similar miss to ‘23) For ‘19 (Nino): close NE but too cold SE For ‘18 (Niña): close For ‘17 (Niña): much too cold (similar miss to ‘20 and ‘23) For ‘16 (Nino): close NE but too cold SE For ‘15 (Nino): much too warm NE, too warm SE For ‘14 (cold neutral): a bit too warm (good forecast but not cold enough) For ‘13 (cold neutral): close For ‘12 (Niña): much too cold (similar to ‘17, ‘20, ‘23) The all important tally for the 15 JFMs of ‘12-‘26 to give us idea of summer CFS bias: 1) NE -Too cold 6 yrs/40% (including 4 much too cold): ‘24, ‘23, ‘21, ‘20, ‘17, ‘12 -Too warm 4 yrs/27% (including one much too warm): ‘26, ‘22, ‘15, ‘14 -Close 5 yrs/33%: ‘25, ‘19, ‘18, ‘16, ‘13 Overall averages a cold bias in the NE, especially since 4 much too cold and only one much too warm. OTOH, only 6 of 15 (40%) too cold…so not a strong cold bias averaged out where one can take a CFS fcast and assume it will be too cold since only 40% too cold…thus, that wouldn’t be wise 2) SE -Too cold 8 years/53% (including 4 much too cold): ‘24, ‘23, ‘21, ‘20, ‘19, ‘17, ‘16, ‘12 -Too warm 5 years/33% (but none much too warm): ‘26, ‘25, ‘22, ‘15, ‘14 -Close 2 years/13%: ‘18 and ‘13 Overall, averages a cold bias in the SE, especially since 4 much too cold and none much too warm. OTOH, not a strong cold bias averaged out since only slightly more than 50% too cold; so wouldn’t be wise at all to assume CFS will verify as too cold @mitchnick

After researching this carefully, the following CFSv2 forecast map that JB posted for 2027 actually may not be the coldest population weighted CFSv2 JFM forecast overall for the U.S. on the site predicted in summer, which goes back to the progs for JFM of 2012: Regarding the following forecast, which was made in the summer of ‘13 for JFM of 2014, the U.S. overall may be colder than the above map on a population as opposed to geographically weighted basis because the most heavily populated NE to upper Midwest is significantly colder despite the warmer S: JB was specifically referring to pop. weighted this far out as he said: “ Population Weighted, CFSV2 with Coldest JFM in hits archive I went back thru all CFSV2 forecasts since 2012 on its site. This is the coldest JFM it has ever shown from this far out“ Now, regarding a JFM prog made at anytime of year, which JB wasn’t talking about, this one made in early Jan for 2013 appears to be the coldest of any I found on either a pop or geo wted basis: Interestingly, the aforementioned recent forecast for JFM 2027 is not that much colder than the following one also made in summer for JFM 2016 (which similarly followed a super Nino peak) as it has a fairly similar pattern (just not as cold): The above summer of ‘15 prog for JFM ‘16 ended up failing miserably for most of the country as this is what actually happened: This miserable failure, itself, doesn’t exactly bode well for those like me hoping the cold on the JB posted CFS for JFM ‘27 will verify well since we’re again going into a super-Nino.

I just noticed that the 0Z UKMET has a NE Gulf TD from this on Sunday and a TS offshore the SE US on Tue: NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 108 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+108 : 27.8N 83.1W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 19.07.2026 108 27.8N 83.1W 1011 33 0000UTC 20.07.2026 120 28.5N 83.2W 1007 26 1200UTC 20.07.2026 132 29.2N 82.1W 1008 27 0000UTC 21.07.2026 144 30.2N 81.2W 1007 32 1200UTC 21.07.2026 156 32.2N 79.1W 1002 40 0000UTC 22.07.2026 168 34.7N 75.5W 1000 47

This could be the best case scenario from a helping reduce the SE drought perspective. A not too strong TC that provides beneficial rains (hopefully not flooding obviously).