GaWx

I started following the model consensus of 2m temps for the high Arctic regularly since May. The majority of the time through early August they initialized with a mean of BN fwiw.

Thanks for posting about this. After reading your post, I decided it would be worthwhile to check out another forum (which includes other pro-mets): https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php I read hundreds of posts in their “The 2026 melting season” thread. The first post I saw mentioning the unusually cold DMI 80+ N temperatures was on 5/25/26 (post #268) on the following page (p. 6) by very experienced pro-met Niall Dollard: https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,4507.250.html Niall said, “I suspect we will see a rapid increase on the DMI N80 graph in the next day or two, as that deep low advects warmth into the general DMI N80 area near the pole. Unusually, the daily mean has been below the 1958-2002 mean for much of the month of May.” ———————— Then go to p. 9 and look at post #474 on 7/16/26 from pro-met Glen Koehler in here: https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,4507.450.html Glen said: “The DMI 80N values are unprecedented. I looked at every annual chart for 1958-2026, and no other year has such a large and prolonged period of below 2C temperature during June and July.” and ”The 2026 DMI 80N chart is so anomalous that it makes me wonder if a sensor or data processing change is affecting the 80N chart in summer 2026. Anoother possibility is that the slushification of the ice near the North pole is creating a different relationship between ice and 2M air temperature.” ———————— Then @TheClimateChanger, who you may recall used to go by “Frivolous” here, posted in #490 (also on p.9) as “Frivolousz21” on 7/18/26 as a reply to Glen: ”It's not from an error. It's just that there has been a relentless PV anomaly and essentially next to no unimpeded solar insolation. It's been pretty crazy. This might end up the best year for ice retention since 2006.” ———————— I went through the rest of the thread and there never was agreement on the cause. So, it remains a mystery there. I respect your knowledge and appreciate your post on this. But I plan to continue posting these DMI graphs at least until if/when there’s strong agreement in the overall pro-met community with you that 2026 really isn’t as cold relative to past years as the graphs show. —————— Today’s daily update had another sharp cooling (~1C) from yesterday keeping it colder than the blue line’s climo: I just looked at the model consensus and it is, indeed, solidly BN N of 80N. However, those same models are showing significant warming to AN very quickly. So, I’m expecting it to go back above the blue line within just a couple of days at most.

Fay was again downgraded to a TD and looks like it is dissipating. However, the 12Z UKMET restrengthens Fay to a TS this weekend that then comes within 175 miles ESE of Bermuda. I’m not yet buying this, but I’m not assuming anything with the Energizer Bunny that is Fay. This is the 3rd run in a row near Bermuda and the umpteenth run in a row that keeps the Energizer Bunny going: TROPICAL DEPRESSION FAY ANALYSED POSITION : 24.3N 47.1W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL062026 LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 29.09.2026 0 24.3N 47.1W 1013 22 0000UTC 30.09.2026 12 23.4N 48.7W 1013 21 1200UTC 30.09.2026 24 23.0N 51.2W 1014 23 0000UTC 01.10.2026 36 23.0N 53.1W 1014 23 1200UTC 01.10.2026 48 23.8N 55.4W 1015 26 0000UTC 02.10.2026 60 24.4N 57.2W 1015 26 1200UTC 02.10.2026 72 25.6N 59.1W 1014 28 0000UTC 03.10.2026 84 26.5N 60.6W 1013 30 1200UTC 03.10.2026 96 27.5N 61.9W 1011 32 0000UTC 04.10.2026 108 28.7N 62.3W 1011 33 1200UTC 04.10.2026 120 30.1N 62.2W 1010 36 0000UTC 05.10.2026 132 31.5N 61.9W 1010 36 1200UTC 05.10.2026 144 33.1N 61.0W 1009 39 0000UTC 06.10.2026 156 35.1N 59.4W 1008 32 1200UTC 06.10.2026 168 37.5N 56.2W 1006 34

It’s beautiful at ATL with low 80s, sunny and dewpoints near 50. The Braves are playing in the first game of the playoffs in this beautiful wx. It’s currently 1-1 in the middle of the 3rd. Go Braves!

If I had added another El Niño to the list, it would have been 1991, which did average slightly BN Sep 28th-Dec 31st and thus is the coldest strong to very strong Nino at 80+ N for 9/28-12/31 averaged out:

What about the very cold 1987, which peaked higher (+1.3) although early (JAS/ASO)? Are you not counting it due to early peak?

Coldest 1958-2023 at 80+N for El Niño for aggregate period Sep 28th-Dec 31st: 1987: coldest 1976:2nd coldest 1968: 3rd coldest Others that were also cold overall but not top 3 cold: 1979: 1977: 1963: 1958:

I’ll check. But first tell me this: do you mean around the current time (say, the same day (Sep 28th) or late Sept through Oct) or do you mean also later?

2011 was moderate La Niña while 2000 was weak La Niña. Also, both were coming off of a prior year’s Niña.

Recent Josh update on Polo on a farm he was staying at on Baja: includes a nice video of the peak as well as aftermath, which shows that people/farm animals weren’t injured despite significant damage to the farm. The main house he was staying in handled it well though:

After having finally gotten back to slightly AN since late Aug (that was 1st time since way back in early May), note the recent drop and how cold it was yesterday N of 80N: 2026 having it this cold N of 80N on Sep 28th is per this site technically the coldest this early in the season in 30 years, quite notable! I say “technically” though because it only barely beat 2011, 2004, and 2000. Regardless, the most interesting comparison is to 2012-25, which were all much warmer/AN on Sep 28th: 1958-2002 mean: -11C 26: -13C 25: -7C 24: -9C 23: -8C 22: -7C 21: -8C 20: -5C 19: -5C 18: -5C 17: -8C 16: -7C 15: -8C 14: -7C 13: -9C 12: -9C 2012-25 mean: -7C So, regarding Sep 28th, 2026 is: 1. 4-8C colder than every year since 2012 2. 6C colder than the mean of 2012-2025 Yes, I’m mainly only talking in this post about a point in time and 80N+ is a small area in relation to the N hemisphere (only 1.5%). But it is a very important 1.5% due to Arctic ice. Also, that area is just coming off the coldest late May-early Aug back to 1958 by a good margin, implying the possibility that this overall cooling up there will have legs. I’ll keep following this to see if there’s cooling trend follow-through up there going ahead as this is quite interesting, especially due to its implications on Arctic ice since GW had lead to the greatest warming by a good margin in the Arctic. Is it possible that the massive warming up there is done at least for awhile? Could there be a new cycle that’s just started? @Stormchaserchuck1@bluewave@Wild Weather Monger

From 5AM EDT NHC discussion: Hurricane Polo Discussion Number 35...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172026 200 AM MST Tue Sep 29 2026 Corrected for Key Message number 1. Polo made landfall around 06Z along the west coast of Baja California Sur, just south of the small town of Las Barrancas. Several microwave fixes received after the 03Z advisory went out (WSF-M, SAR, and two ASCAT passes) all indicated that center of Polo was a bit farther south than was estimated at 03Z.There is some uncertainty in what the intensity was at landfall, but given all the data we have received, it is likely that Polo was a category 2 hurricane at the time of landfall with maximum winds in the 90-95 kt range.

Josh is about to be hit hard by very compact Polo as he was only 21 miles from the center 1/2 hour ago with only light rain and just some breezes:

Wow, the WCS daily PDO continues to plunge back down as it’s fallen to -1.74 in the midst of a record strong El Niño! How is this happening? It was -1.10 just 5 days ago.

Were in another very long -SOI streak, 47 days! https://data.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/SeasonalClimateOutlook/SouthernOscillationIndex/SOIDataFiles/DailySOI1887-1989Base.txt

The never say die Fay gets within 40 miles of Bermuda on the 12Z UKMET at 168! TROPICAL DEPRESSION FAY ANALYSED POSITION : 27.3N 44.7W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL062026 LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 28.09.2026 0 27.3N 44.7W 1014 26 0000UTC 29.09.2026 12 26.0N 45.6W 1013 24 1200UTC 29.09.2026 24 24.8N 47.4W 1012 24 0000UTC 30.09.2026 36 23.9N 49.1W 1012 25 1200UTC 30.09.2026 48 23.5N 51.7W 1011 27 0000UTC 01.10.2026 60 23.4N 53.7W 1012 29 1200UTC 01.10.2026 72 24.2N 56.1W 1012 29 0000UTC 02.10.2026 84 24.9N 57.9W 1013 28 1200UTC 02.10.2026 96 25.8N 59.8W 1012 30 0000UTC 03.10.2026 108 26.5N 61.2W 1012 29 1200UTC 03.10.2026 120 27.5N 62.3W 1011 31 0000UTC 04.10.2026 132 28.6N 63.0W 1011 31 1200UTC 04.10.2026 144 29.8N 63.7W 1012 29 0000UTC 05.10.2026 156 30.9N 64.4W 1012 29 1200UTC 05.10.2026 168 32.9N 64.6W 1014 26

BULLETIN Tropical Storm Hanna Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082026 1100 AM AST Mon Sep 28 2026 ...TROPICAL STORM HANNA FORMS IN THE CENTRAL SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...36.6N 50.4W ABOUT 870 MI...1400 KM ENE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 100 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Hanna was located near latitude 36.6 North, longitude 50.4 West. Hanna is moving toward the east near 17 mph (28 km/h). An east to east-southeast motion is forecast over the next few days. Satellite wind data indicates that maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next couple of days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb

Here in the SE, I prefer either EPAC or CPAC dominating it to the MC dominating because that would normally mean a much reduced influence of the SE ridge/colder overall.

The Sep of 2026 MJO has been very different from that of Sep of 2023: Sep of 2023 (blue): all in MC/IO Sep of 2026: none in MC/IO

The differences between the traditional (non-relative) NOAA weeklies and their official relative counterparts have increased notably since early June: 1. 6/3/26: Non-relative for 6/3/26: 03JUN2026 2.5 1.5 1.3 1.2 Relative for 6/3/26: 03JUN2026 2.0 0.9 0.7 0.7 So, the differences between traditional and relative for 6/3/26 were: +0.5 +0.6 +0.6 +0.5 ———————— 2. 9/23/26: Non-relative for 9/23/26: 23SEP2026 4.7 3.9 3.1 1.1 Relative for 9/23/26: 23SEP2026 3.9 3.1 2.2 0.1 So, the differences for 9/23/26 are: +0.8 +0.8 +0.9 +1.0 ————————— Thus the differences between traditional and relative for NOAA have increased from 6/3/26 to 9/23/26 by these amounts as GW’s influence over the traditional way of measuring anomalies (30 year) has increased since early summer: 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.5

The 0Z UKMET like prior runs going back days continues to keep Fay alive through the entire run. It has Fay at her strongest late in the run only barely missing going back to TS strength! TROPICAL DEPRESSION FAY ANALYSED POSITION : 28.7N 44.0W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL062026 LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 0000UTC 28.09.2026 0 28.7N 44.0W 1015 23 1200UTC 28.09.2026 12 27.4N 44.6W 1014 23 0000UTC 29.09.2026 24 26.4N 45.6W 1013 22 1200UTC 29.09.2026 36 25.4N 47.2W 1013 22 0000UTC 30.09.2026 48 24.7N 48.9W 1012 23 1200UTC 30.09.2026 60 24.3N 51.1W 1013 25 0000UTC 01.10.2026 72 24.1N 53.1W 1013 27 1200UTC 01.10.2026 84 24.6N 55.1W 1014 24 0000UTC 02.10.2026 96 25.2N 56.6W 1014 24 1200UTC 02.10.2026 108 26.2N 58.0W 1013 27 0000UTC 03.10.2026 120 27.1N 58.8W 1012 31 1200UTC 03.10.2026 132 28.2N 59.1W 1010 33 0000UTC 04.10.2026 144 29.0N 58.9W 1009 33 1200UTC 04.10.2026 156 29.7N 58.5W 1009 34 0000UTC 05.10.2026 168 30.1N 57.9W 1009 31

^Thanks. Here is this morning’s NOAA weekly update for relative (for those who don’t know, this much better takes into account GW and thus became the official way of measuring by NOAA a good while ago) Nino anomalies for the average of last week compared to the avg for the prior week: this shows 1+2 still at +3.9 and the other 3 having warmed 0.1. Below that are the comparable weeks in 1997 and 1982: 16SEP2026 3.9 3.0 2.1 0.0 23SEP2026 3.9 3.1 2.2 0.1 24SEP1997 3.8 2.7 1.8 0.5 (the most E based prior to 2026) 22SEP1982 1.5 2.1 2.0 0.6 Compared to past years for the same week, 1+2 region’s +3.9 remains at its highest (weekly records back to 1981) for the 2nd week in a row, beating 1997’s +3.8. Next Monday’s release will likely be the 3rd week in a row at its highest. Nino 3’s +3.1 is its 2nd week in a row of being at a high with it easily beating 1997’s +2.7. Nino 3.4’s +2.2 beats 1982’s +2.0 for the warmest for that week and is its 3rd week in a row at a high. Nino 4’s +0.1 is way cooler than the other regions and also is significantly cooler than many years thus showing how much more E based 2026 is vs any other year on record as of late Sept including the prior most E based 1997: 1994 +0.9 1986 +0.8 2019 +0.7 2002 +0.7 2006 +0.6 2004 +0.6 2023 +0.5 1997 +0.5 https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/rel_wksst9120.txt @bluewave@OSUmetstud@40/70 Benchmark

Ok, here we go again with the BoM RONI progs. As I’ve posted, the early near month prog of every near month of Apr-Aug ended up having been too warm as per their charts showing notably cooler in their final analyses vs these early progs. I now feel safe in saying that that’s happening with Sep, too, which would make 6 months in a row! Here was a Sep 5th prog, which had Sep near +3.0: Compare that to the brand new run (Sep 26th…see below), which has Sep MTD at only +2.4 with only 5 days to go (note the line from Aug to Sep is almost flat vs the steep slope of the Sep 5th run)! To compare, NOAA appears to be headed to a Sep of only ~+2.0 to +2.2. We’ll see next week where Sep. settles for both BoM and NOAA. I bet BoM settles at ~+2.5 or +2.6, well below its Sep 5th run’s +3.0 prog. Thus, I continue to expect that the ~+3.8 peak that it still shows for Nov will end up not verifying even closely. Before that, I predict with confidence that the +3.5 of Oct won’t verify closely. Why would the clearcut pattern of significantly too warm near month progs change now? Besides, it would take pretty much a record warming for a one month period to reach from Sep’s mid +2s to Oct’s +3.5. Sound familiar? Several models earlier had predicted a record warming from July to August, which we know ended up busting badly. To show how out of touch with reality this has been the last 3 months, this Jul 4th run had July at +2.0, Aug at +2.7, and Sep at +3.0. Jul/Aug BoM verified at only +1.7/+2.3 and Sep should verify only in the +2.5 to +2.6 area as mentioned. This warm bias is Déjà vu from 2023:

Hawaii now has the most outages in the U.S. with ~11K. Almost all are on Maui, where a whopping 15% are without power. https://poweroutage.us/area/state/hawaii

Why do you think they’re getting warmer?