GaWx

Thanks. Please elaborate. I’m not sure I’m following what you’re asking.

Thanks, Charlie, for posing that. None of what you posted from that article surprises me. I’m not at all expecting to take JB’s side, especially because he’s a proud denier of AGW being a significant factor in GW. But what do you know about his statement that Nepal hasn’t warmed in 400 years? Did he just make this up? From where would he have gotten accurate data so far back? Also, does that map of his that I reposted supposedly showing a somewhat cooler than normal summer along the Nepal-Tibet border have any significance even if accurate? I noticed it has no legend and no reference like the base period and the period these blue colors are representing. He’s saying this is the “wrong summer” to claim a disaster was based on GW. But even if it truly was cooler than normal this summer there, would that even matter being that melting supposedly would have already been put in motion due to supposedly prior warmer than normal periods?

Of course it’s possible. I’d put odds at ~25% as of now. Based on the fact that none are shown on current models, this being progged to be the strongest Nino on record, and the modern analog 1997, which had its last TC become a H on Sept 4th, it’s a realistic possibility though still not anywhere near a likelihood this early in the season. That’s why I’m roughly estimating a 25% chance.

Today’s release for last week averaged out has a notable rise in 1+2: 19AUG2026 3.2 2.5 1.8 0.0 26AUG2026 3.5 2.6 1.8 0.1 To compare, here’s 1997: 27AUG1997 3.3 2.6 1.9 0.4 https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/rel_wksst9120.txt

I just watched Joe Bastardi’s free to the public Saturday Summary. He says the Nepal disaster has nothing to do with CC. Why? -He says that there has been no net change in temperature in Nepal in 400 years! -He shows a summer temp. anomaly map that has blue colors all over Tibet including the Tibet-Nepal border. So, I’d like to know whether or not these two things are true. Anyone know? @donsutherland1

The 0Z UKMET (as an TD) and CMC still have this recurving TC.

0Z: UKMET and CMC both dropped the return of Dolly.

Early afternoon in Vail I saw the strongest thunderstorm of my CO trip. It got so dark just before the start! I considered it to be severe with very strong winds at the start bringing down cold air into the 50s. The winds must have been 50++, which the aspens handled well. Soon after good drought helping heavy rain fell followed by lots of pea sized hail that lasted ~5 minutes. As a result of 3 periods of rain, it was in the 50s most of the afternoon! Sure beats GA summer heat and humidity! It’s down to 48 with rain and wind. Feels like what typical winter day would be in Savannah! This is why I like coming here in summer.

12z Euro: looks like a TD that comes ashore near LA/TX border midday Tue.

I’m talking about models that had avg for Aug minus avg for July ~1C. It’s looking more like just 0.5C.

12Z UKMET for 2nd full run in a row has a TC originating in the W MDR well out in the run. 0Z had a TD but 12Z has a strengthening mid-grade TS as it recurves well away from any landmass due to a notable upper trough per H5 maps: NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 120 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+120 : 15.8N 52.0W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 04.09.2026 120 15.8N 52.0W 1011 25 0000UTC 05.09.2026 132 16.9N 55.0W 1010 30 1200UTC 05.09.2026 144 17.8N 57.6W 1008 35 0000UTC 06.09.2026 156 19.3N 59.2W 1006 41 1200UTC 06.09.2026 168 20.8N 59.6W 1002 48

12Z UKMET doesn’t quite designate this as a TD but it does have 25 knot winds just offshore LA Mon night and landfall Tue AM near TX/LA border. Lowest SLP only gets down to 1011 mb fwiw.

12 UKMET: ex-Dolly becomes a TD right before it moves NW into FL NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 102 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+102 : 26.5N 78.7W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 0000UTC 04.09.2026 108 27.5N 79.5W 1008 29 1200UTC 04.09.2026 120 29.2N 81.3W 1008 31 0000UTC 05.09.2026 132 30.8N 83.2W 1008 24 1200UTC 05.09.2026 144 32.0N 85.4W 1009 19 0000UTC 06.09.2026 156 32.8N 87.3W 1008 18 1200UTC 06.09.2026 168 33.1N 87.9W 1008 20

August overall was a notable bust for Nino 3.4 as several models had had a steep anomaly warming of a record breaking ~1C from July to Aug whereas the last 4 weeks have overall been net ~flat meaning a warming from July to August of only ~0.5C. Thus, the progged Nov peaks have recently been dropping on the CFS:

0Z UKMET: H at 168 strengthening on a slow WNW move in Gulf NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 102 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+102 : 24.6N 78.6W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 03.09.2026 108 24.9N 79.9W 1008 30 0000UTC 04.09.2026 120 25.9N 82.1W 1005 33 1200UTC 04.09.2026 132 27.3N 84.2W 1001 38 0000UTC 05.09.2026 144 28.0N 86.2W 996 43 1200UTC 05.09.2026 156 28.4N 87.8W 989 61 0000UTC 06.09.2026 168 28.7N 88.9W 977 68

Chris, posted this last night: I suspect based on his post 2 nights earlier and the tone of this one that I largely won’t agree with the upcoming video, but let’s see what he says.

1. Based on Corcorahs and radar yesterday, I roughly estimate 0.1” fell at my home yesterday (8/27) thus bringing my location at 7.35” mtd through 8/27. 2. More rain has fallen and is still falling there today. I’ll have to roughly estimate later how much for 8/28. As of now the total for today I’m guessing 0.5” at the very least. Edit: my rough estimate for 8/28 at my home is 0.5” based largely on local TV radar estimates. That puts me at ~7.85” MTD.

I can’t post the maps because they’re too large for the space allowed here, but comparing today’s 12Z UKMET 120 hour map with the 168 hour map of the 12Z UK of 48 hours ago using Pivotal shows they’re very similar with regard to both with a somewhat healthy Dolly (1007 mb/well organized vs 999 mb on the run from 48 hours ago) recurving and the preliminary low back to being just a weak (1012ish) low that’s not designated a TC and headed toward NE FL.

FWIW, the GFS this morning redevelops Dolly's remnants in the GOM and gives Texas a hurricane. Thanks for posting this. After a careful look at the 6Z GFS, including the progged vorticity for various levels of the atmosphere, it appears to me like this may be a combo of Dolly’s remnants and additional vorticity similar to the vorticity that the last 4 full UKMET runs have shown off the SE coast developing into a sfc low (TC on last 3 runs).

According to the following link, NOAA has switched to RONI as its official way of reporting ENSO effective 2/1/2026 and not just for weak ENSO despite them still maintaining the ONI dataset: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ONI_v5.php

Chris, are you disputing NOAA? NOAA is saying as I think you must realize that measuring against average overall worldwide tropical ocean warming is a more realistic gauge of the strength of ENSO events. Why else did they convert to relative measures for official measurements? Also, BoM has switched among other organizations.

I like to remind folks when I read x-posts like this this from Brody Cowing that ignore using RONI types of measures that some of this intensity of warming in the Nino regions is due to GW and not purely due to the strength of the Nino, itself. When using relative/RONI records put out by NOAA, it’s clear that Nino 1+2 isn’t currently at record highs: 20AUG1997 3.8 2.6 1.8 0.4 19AUG2026 3.2 2.5 1.8 0.0 https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/rel_wksst9120.txt

Chris Martz posted this on the day of the Nepal flooding disaster. I’m not posting this because of agreement with him since I vehemently disagree. The one thing I’ve been most concerned about regarding CC/GW is what to me has to be an obvious direct result from it, melting of ice and the resultant negative consequences. How can GW not be a cause or contribution to melting ice? I feel I’m open minded about what CC/GW clearly does or doesn’t cause (an example being global wildfire acreage burnt that I’ve recently been posting about) as well as the idea that there are some significant positive results from it (like fewer hunger related deaths resulting from increased world food supply as well as fewer deaths related to GW since cold has killed many more than heat). Some of my posts do address things like that. Also, I’ve recently even posted about the coldest 80N+ late May through most of the summer since at least 1958 per DMS stats possibly contributing to less melting of Arctic ice area this summer vs recent years. But in the case of melted ice in general, I don’t get the doubt about CC causing it like Chris Martz implies: @donsutherland1@chubbsand others, any comments?

The 0Z UKMET has a low form in the subtropics well off the SE coast that later either hits or is about to hit the SE US for the 4th run in a row. Wed. 12Z’s low was weak and it was about to hit NE FL at the end (Sept 2nd). Yesterday’s 0Z had a TS about to come into the S portion of the FL E coast on Sept. 3rd. Yesterday’s 12Z UKMET had TCG at hour 108 that initially moved W but then strengthened into a TS that turned NW to hit Charleston on Sept. 3rd. Today’s 0Z has TCG on Monday (8/31) for the 3rd run in a row with it moving WSW and then making TS status on Tue (9/1). It landfalls on WP Beach on Wed. (9/2) before moving W to the Gulf moving WNW out into the Gulf: NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 96 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 96 : 28.9N 74.4W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 0000UTC 01.09.2026 96 28.9N 74.4W 1013 21 1200UTC 01.09.2026 108 28.2N 75.9W 1012 27 0000UTC 02.09.2026 120 27.0N 77.6W 1008 35 1200UTC 02.09.2026 132 26.5N 79.4W 1006 37 0000UTC 03.09.2026 144 26.9N 81.4W 1004 29 1200UTC 03.09.2026 156 27.6N 83.7W 1003 40 0000UTC 04.09.2026 168 28.6N 86.0W 1001 40

12Z UKMET: rapid WNW move in MDR with no strengthening followed by TS strength outside of MDR and change of move to NW well off the SE US at the end with interaction between Dolly and the TS hitting CHS making it more of a forecast challenge: MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 27.08.2026 TROPICAL STORM DOLLY ANALYSED POSITION : 13.6N 37.4W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL042026 LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 27.08.2026 0 13.6N 37.4W 1009 30 0000UTC 28.08.2026 12 14.0N 41.3W 1009 31 1200UTC 28.08.2026 24 14.5N 45.7W 1010 31 0000UTC 29.08.2026 36 15.3N 49.9W 1011 32 1200UTC 29.08.2026 48 16.3N 54.0W 1011 33 0000UTC 30.08.2026 60 17.3N 57.7W 1011 33 1200UTC 30.08.2026 72 18.7N 61.0W 1011 35 0000UTC 31.08.2026 84 19.7N 63.4W 1010 32 1200UTC 31.08.2026 96 20.4N 65.8W 1010 34 0000UTC 01.09.2026 108 21.0N 67.5W 1009 32 1200UTC 01.09.2026 120 21.5N 69.4W 1007 35 0000UTC 02.09.2026 132 21.8N 70.6W 1006 36 1200UTC 02.09.2026 144 22.8N 72.2W 1004 39 0000UTC 03.09.2026 156 23.7N 73.7W 997 42 1200UTC 03.09.2026 168 25.2N 75.3W 992 49