GaWx

But it then goes back down into the troposphere?

A number of folks are confused by the term “Weeklies”. They’re currently called that not because of the frequency of issuance but rather the in-house maps are for one week at a time and also they go out 5-6 weeks. Going back a number of years I know they were issued only twice a week on Mon and Thu. I can’t recall if they were issued only once a week going further back. I’m leaning that way though. Maybe on Mondays only originally? The more I think about it and try to recall, the more positive I am that they started out being issued only once per week. ————— KSAV had 75 today. The forecast is more 75s every day through Sunday. That would give us 6 days in a row of 75ish. Then the bottom falls out on 12/29!

BAMwx met Brett Waltz with update this morning:

Hey Chuck, I don’t remember whom and you may not have said it, but I remember a number of posters and/or tweeters saying that the 11/28/25 SSWE was a “reflected” or “reflective” SSWE and that that meant it wouldn’t translate down to the troposphere. I don’t understand what that means, but rather I remember it being discussed and that that was bad news. What do you know about this or do you know anything about it? Does this mean it really wasn’t reflective or reflected (whatever the correct term is). TIA

But obviously even if it hadn’t barely dipped below the 0 line, we know that that’s academic. Even if it had dipped only to, say +1 or +2, do we really think that that would have made a difference? After all that likely would still have been the weakest that early since 1968 and would have still been a a very impressive whopping 30 below avg. So, 30 below vs 31 or 32 below. But anyway, I pointed out that it officially barely reversed per the Euro to keep the record straight. Thus, I feel 11/28/25 will likely be added to the list of official major SSWs.

Ray, You may need a magnifying glass to see it, but it was just barely an official zonal wind reversal at 10 mb….but only barely (at ~-0.5 m/s per Euro on 11/28/25) after the 11/24/25 initial dip barely failed:

I don’t think that it’s an exaggeration to say that today’s Euro Weeklies colder changes in the aggregate for the E US are at least near the largest I can recall this entire season with 4 of the 5 weeks notably colder and only the other (Jan 5th-11th) staying about the same (pretty mild). If you want to look specifically at the big changes in the ecmwf in-house maps, themselves, vs yesterday, you can go here to the main ENSO thread:

I don’t think that it’s an exaggeration to say that today’s Euro Weeklies colder changes in the aggregate for the E US are at least near the largest I can recall this entire season with 4 of the 5 weeks notably colder and only the other (Jan 5th-11th) staying about the same (pretty mild). I’ll leave it to @Carvers Gapto post more about them as he normally is thorough communicating about them here. But if you want to look specifically at the big changes in the ecmwf in-house maps, themselves, vs yesterday, you can go here to the main ENSO thread:

I don’t think that it’s an exaggeration to say that today’s Euro Weeklies colder changes in the aggregate for the E US are at least near the largest I can recall this entire season with 4 of the 5 weeks notably colder and only the other (Jan 5th-11th) staying about the same (pretty mild): 1. Week 1: Dec 29-Jan 4 Old: New: colder although already expected 2. Jan 12-18: Old: New: 3. Jan 19-25: Old: New: 4. Jan 26-Feb 1: Old: New:

Hey Chuck, Ignoring end of month highest volume contract changes, contract expirations and other misleading daily changes at investing.com, it appears to me when looking at investing.com daily data that today’s ~11% legit rise of natural gas may be the single highest legit rise in a day in all of 2025! What do you think?

Natural gas is now up 10% due to the models’ much colder late Dec and now early Jan vs what last week’s models showed! If this holds, it would easily be the strongest single day since at least August. Keep in mind that NG’s strongest days are usually when the E US two week forecast is looking colder than the prior day: Natural Gas (NGF6) Real-time derived Currency in USD 4.376 +0.411(+10.37%) Real-time Data·13:51:34

It has almost always looked like the E US will go warm in the 11-15+ day as illustrated well by the @bluewavepost showing the persistent E US warm bias on the 3 major ensembles in the 11-15 day period, even including the normally cold biased CMC ens (averaged out over the last 90 days).

Good news. Eric Webb, who recently had been pessimistic about January due largely to the Pacific warm pool not moving eastward enough, sounds like he’s likely about to come around to being bullish instead: I just asked Eric this on another public BB: Eric, “Are you having second thoughts about your recent pessimistic warmth for January? I’m sensing a tone change in your most recent posts.” His answer is very nice to see: I'd definitely say so, especially early on. Taking a gigantic L on the big warm-up late December, thanks to this huge -NAO trend in the medium range. Some of those takes I've had are aging as badly as the egg nog you accidentally left in the back of your fridge from last Christmas. @snowman19since you’ve been posting his pessimistic posts

It’s still very early but: Could this end up still another +PNA Jan following a -PNA Dec during -ENSO, which has pretty much been the case since 1983-4? Bet the streak? 2021-2 analog FTW perhaps? @40/70 Benchmark This last post by @bluewaveabout strong warm E US biases in the E US in the 11-15 the last 90 days is very significant!

Natural gas is up 4% today, which I assume is due to the model consensus again correcting colder continually due to not seeing E US cold well that’s over one week out.

The MJO’s 3rd phase 8 period of the month ended on 12/20, when it went into phase 7. So far this month there have been three phase 8 periods: - Dec 3-7 - Dec 15 - Dec 17-19 Will there be more?

I don’t know why the NAO and its influence has been underdone on the models, but these kinds of things make forecasting discussions so interesting. Just think if the models were all knowing. The discussion would be pretty boring.

Look at how much Dec 29-Jan 4 has cooled vs 2 days ago on the EPS thanks to the stronger -NAO pushing back from the NE despite the strong Aleutian ridge remaining. Two days ago: Today:

Jan 2022 is an analog.

This is one of the biggest and most widespread changes toward colder on the EPS mean when going from 2 weeks out to one week out. In reality, most of the colder change has been just since the Friday runs! It’s all because the -NAO got much stronger and pushed back from the NE despite the strong Aleutian ridge remaining!

Would snowman and MJO mind taking their constant arguing to PM? It’s cluttering up the thread with useless BS.

PhiEagles, please read my post again. I said 21” minimum for Jan+, alone. I didn’t say Jan, alone. In other words, I was not including Dec in my 21”+ prediction.

Even though I posted the WxBell charts, I admit that there are often discrepancies in their tele charts vs NOAA. For example, check out the initializations: NOAA is -1.8 today (which is what’s actually listed for today) and it’s forecasted to rise to -1.5 tomorrow. But WxBell has -2.5 today and with it headed down to -2.9 tomorrow! It seems like WxBell often has wider variations up and down among other things.

It sure is. I already posted after the first storm a prediction of 21” minimum for Jan+, alone, on top of whatever Dec ends up with.

Look at how much the US population weighted HDD rose on the EPS mean from the 12/17 12Z run to the 12/22 0Z run for 12/28-31: 25 HDD (from 74 to 99)! This is from a way BN 74 to a NN 99. Normal is 100 HDD. 12/17 12Z HDD run in purple on left 12/22 0Z HDD run in purple on left