Jump to content

GaWx

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    19,793

  • Joined

 Content Type 

Everything posted by GaWx

  1. GaWx
    60%/80% now: Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Mon Oct 5 2026 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America: 1. Southwestern Gulf of America (AL92): A trough of low pressure over the southwestern Gulf of America is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Although environmental conditions appear to be marginally conducive, gradual development is becoming more likely, and a tropical depression is expected to form during the middle portion of the week. This system is expected to drift eastward over the next couple of days, before it turns northward. It is too early to determine the specific impacts to the northern Gulf Coast, but interests there should closely monitor the progress of this system. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.
  2. GaWx
    12Z UKMET: shifts back east from 0Z run’s far SE LA to MS/AL border track to new track into FL Pan for mid-grade TS followed by NNE and then NNW move in AL: NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 66 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 66 : 22.8N 92.4W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 08.10.2026 72 24.0N 91.4W 1002 30 0000UTC 09.10.2026 84 25.2N 89.4W 999 34 1200UTC 09.10.2026 96 26.7N 88.0W 996 44 0000UTC 10.10.2026 108 28.7N 86.9W 995 49 1200UTC 10.10.2026 120 32.1N 86.1W 999 26 0000UTC 11.10.2026 132 34.5N 87.3W 1001 26 1200UTC 11.10.2026 144 CEASED TRACKING
  3. GaWx
    The thread for the Gulf tropical threat has been started:
  4. GaWx
    We’re almost certainly heading for the most E based Nino on record for good or for bad. The SE ridge should be held back bigly, which would be really good from my perspective.
  5. GaWx
    Thanks, Mitch. Here are the Euro Oct progs for winter going back to 2017-8 for comparison purposes and how they did in the E US: 2026: 2025: much too warm 2024: much too warm 2023 (Nino): too cold 2022: too cold (not warm enough) 2021: net slightly too warm (close SE, too warm NE) 2020: net too warm (much too warm SE; avg of too warm NE but close N Eng) 2019: pretty close (slightly too cold SE but close NE) 2018 (Nino): net too cold (close NE but much too cold SE): 2017: close ———————— Tally: -did well in 19 and esp. 17 -did pretty well 21 -did pretty badly 23, 22, 20, 18 -did terribly 25, 24 -too cold both El Niños in SE and 1 of 2 in NE -NE: too warm on 4, close on 3, too cold on 2 -SE: too warm on 3, close on 2, too cold on 4
  6. GaWx
    Indeed! Model consensus has plentiful to possibly even flooding rains (especially on/near the Gulf coast) in some areas of the SE this weekend! There will likely be a dedicated thread in the Tropical section for this soon: Now cherry (30%/70%): Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Mon Oct 5 2026 Southwestern Gulf of America: A trough of low pressure in the southwestern Gulf of America is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Although environmental conditions appear to be marginally conducive, gradual development is becoming more likely, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the middle or latter portion of the week. This system is expected to drift eastward over the next few days, before it turns northward. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.
  7. GaWx
    Now cherry (30%/70%): Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Mon Oct 5 2026 Southwestern Gulf of America: A trough of low pressure in the southwestern Gulf of America is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Although environmental conditions appear to be marginally conducive, gradual development is becoming more likely, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the middle or latter portion of the week. This system is expected to drift eastward over the next few days, before it turns northward. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.
  8. GaWx
    Up to 10/50% as of 1AM CDT advisory: Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Mon Oct 5 2026 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America: 1. Southwestern Gulf of America: A surface trough of low pressure has developed along the coast of Mexico in the southwestern Gulf of America. Although environmental conditions are expected to be only marginally conducive, gradual development of this system is possible and a tropical depression could form by the second half of this week while it initially drifts eastward before turning northward. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent. Forecaster Papin
  9. GaWx
    Agree 100%. Now will they be T, ST, or ET legs? I think T legs most likely and ET least likely. Speaking of T legs: 0Z UKMET: 5th run in a row with a Gulf TC with it maxing at a mid level TS and land falling over tip of SE LA followed by MS/AL border on Saturday with plentiful rains and even some areas of flooding rains over the SE US over weekend with heaviest Gulf coast: NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 84 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 84 : 23.2N 91.7W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 08.10.2026 84 23.2N 91.7W 1004 28 0000UTC 09.10.2026 96 22.8N 91.3W 1003 26 1200UTC 09.10.2026 108 25.3N 90.3W 1003 35 0000UTC 10.10.2026 120 26.4N 90.7W 1000 38 1200UTC 10.10.2026 132 29.0N 89.5W 998 45 0000UTC 11.10.2026 144 33.4N 88.1W 992 27 1200UTC 11.10.2026 156 35.4N 87.9W 1002 18 0000UTC 12.10.2026 168 CEASED TRACKING
  10. GaWx
    Sunday had a rainy late afternoon and evening, but it was very light. It’s still raining. Total measured only ~0.1”, which gets me to a MTD of ~2.2”. Edit: 8:38AM Mon 10/5: I’ve been getting good rains the last 45 minutes
  11. GaWx
    Here’s the breakdown of Oct vs DJF NAO for +1.4+ Ninos since 1950: 2023: - + 2015: + + 2009: - - 1997: - N 1991: N + 1986: + - 1982: - + 1972: + + 1965: + - 1957: + - So, of the 5 +Oct, DJF was - thrice and + twice fwiw
  12. GaWx
    ‘23 JJAS PDO -2.4 ‘26 JJAS PDO -1.2
  13. GaWx
    -2023 isn't a great analog because 1. its RONI peak of +1.4 pales in comparison to where 26 is headed and even where it already is 2. It was much less E based (cross between E based & basinwide) than 26 is progged to be 3. The only similarly strongly -PDO of any Niño of the last 150 years was 1951-2 and it’s RONI peaked at only +1.0 ————— -2019 is hardly an analog because it wasn’t even El Niño as it peaked at only +0.3 and was W based ——— -2018 isn’t a good analog because it peaked at only +0.8 and was slightly W based ———— -2015 is the only of these that’s a good analog but it was pretty much basin-wide, not E based https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/ersst/v5/v6/index/ersst.v6.pdo.dat https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/
  14. GaWx
    12Z UKMET is 4th full run in a row with a Gulf TC and again maxes out in strong TS range but well to the W of the 0Z’s FL Pan with it coming into EC LA: NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 78 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 78 : 21.8N 92.8W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 0000UTC 08.10.2026 84 22.1N 93.0W 1003 28 1200UTC 08.10.2026 96 23.3N 91.8W 1003 29 0000UTC 09.10.2026 108 23.0N 90.7W 1002 30 1200UTC 09.10.2026 120 24.8N 91.2W 1001 40 0000UTC 10.10.2026 132 26.2N 91.1W 997 44 1200UTC 10.10.2026 144 28.5N 90.3W 992 55 0000UTC 11.10.2026 156 31.3N 90.4W 994 30 1200UTC 11.10.2026 168 31.8N 90.3W 1006 25
  15. GaWx
    0Z UK: high end 992 mb TS hits FL panhandle Sat AM and is the 3rd UK full run in a row with a Gulf TC: NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 84 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 84 : 22.8N 94.2W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 07.10.2026 84 22.8N 94.2W 1005 27 0000UTC 08.10.2026 96 22.6N 93.1W 1002 28 1200UTC 08.10.2026 108 23.9N 91.7W 999 36 0000UTC 09.10.2026 120 25.0N 90.3W 997 41 1200UTC 09.10.2026 132 26.3N 89.4W 996 41 0000UTC 10.10.2026 144 27.9N 87.8W 992 53 1200UTC 10.10.2026 156 30.3N 86.6W 996 42 0000UTC 11.10.2026 168 32.6N 87.9W 1003 29
  16. GaWx
    Follow-up: as expected per model progs, 80N+ warmed further since 9/30 with a total of a whopping 5C over just the last 4 days to solidly AN:
  17. GaWx
    These both came in slightly lower than 1997’s 2.15/1.84
  18. GaWx
    Sep OHC (keep in mind these aren’t relative) continues the record shattering of the prior 2 months with it at 3.38. The 2nd highest Sep is 2.38 (1997). Even if there were a relative version, it would still be a record.
  19. GaWx
    Also the record summer -SOI
  20. GaWx
    The NOAA ERSSTv6 Sep PDO was -0.74: -As expected based on WCS, this was less negative than Aug’s -1.12 -This is the least neg Sep since 2019’s +0.44. -2023 Sep was way down at -2.52! -This is the 3rd month in a row that NOAA came in less negative than avg of WCS dailies, which was ~-1.0 in Sep - The NOAA August PDO had come in at -1.12 vs the WCS avg of ~-1.55. https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/ersst/v5/v6/index/ersst.v6.pdo.dat
  21. GaWx
    Here I got rain since 12:45PM-1:30 moving NE with some of it very heavy. This is in addition to a quick shower this morning and moderate rain (few tenths) late yest. afternoon from popups. It appears I’dreceived 1.5”+ from all of this with most of it just since 12:45PM. This compares to ~2.55” for all of Sep! Update at 5: been getting additional mod to heavy rain since 4:45. I’m now likely at 2”+ since yest. Edit: Final total for Fri-Sat 10/2-3 was ~2.1”.
  22. GaWx
    We agree that the absolute 3.4 temp has been blowing away its record since summer on OISST. But a portion of that difference from prior records is obviously due to the globe being near its warmest on record: -Avg trop ocean warming since 1997 is ~0.6C. So, without any of that warming, 2026 OISST would still be warmer going back to Sep 1st. But the diff would be ~0.6 smaller. -Avg warming since 1982 ~~0.8C. So, it would still be warmer than 82 w/o the GW since then but would be ~0.8 smaller diff. -It has warmed ~0.3C since ‘15. So, even after taking into acct GW, it would still be blowing away ‘15. -It is pulverizing ‘23 as that was a much weaker Nino at this point vs the other 3 and there’s been some GW since then. -Also, keep in mind that cyclonicwx’s OISST graph has been ~0.4 warmer than NOAA’s OISST the last 2 months. They used to be within ~0.1 apart on avg. I don’t know why, but it’s possible Alex’s OISST has been skewed a few tenths higher due to a bug for all I know. -Even after taking into account both a possible bug in Alex’s graph and GW, ‘26 looks like it would still be at a record in 3.4.
  23. GaWx
    1. The concept of RONI applies to all ENSO. 2. ONI is a good measure of the combo of GW and ENSO. RONI is a good measure of ENSO, alone. 3. NOAA officially currently has 1972-3 at +2.0.
  24. GaWx
    As the globe warms, the threshold for the SST becoming much more favorable for convection warms: Significant Increase in Sea Surface Temperature at the Genesis of Tropical Mesoscale Convective Systems “We show that this threshold (SSTG) has undergone a significant warming trend at a rate of ∼0.2°C per decade. The SSTG shows a remarkable correspondence with the tropical mean SST and upper-tropospheric temperature on interannual and longer timescales.” “The development of tropical ocean showers and thunderstorms requires a warm ocean surface as an energy source fueling the storm.” ”Using satellite observations and a high-resolution global climate model, we show that this threshold has undergone a significant warming trend during the past several decades and will continue to increase in the future. This warming trend is closely related to the changes in the tropical mean SST. A constant relationship between the SST threshold and upper-tropospheric temperature is found in both the current climate and a warming climate, which corroborates the argument that tropospheric temperatures in the tropics approximately follow a moist adiabatic adjustment.” https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2022GL101950
  25. GaWx
    You said in your earlier post that I responded to: “It was a+2.1 event up until a few years ago before the CPC dropped it to +1.8. So until very recently it was rated as a lower end super.” 1. The CPC officially now has 72-3 at +2.0, not +1.8, as I showed, because ONI hasn’t been official since Feb. 2. You said, “With an event as extreme as this RONI can make the event seem weaker than it actually is.” No, it’s not RONI making the event seem weaker. It’s ONI making the current Nino seem stronger than it really is due to GW. That’s the reason the RONI exists. ONI isn’t per NOAA and BoM the absolute strength of the 26 Nino, itself, because that exaggerates the strength due to adding the increasing warming from GW to the warming from El Niño, itself. The warming from El Niño, itself, is what RONI measures. I’ll use a hypothetical example to illustrate better: -Say that the avg worldwide tropical ocean 30 year SSTa is at +1.0 vs its prior 30 year avg. Now say that 3.4 is also at +1.0 vs its own 30 yr avg. Per ONI it’s a +1.0 Nino. But per RONI it’s at 0.0/neutral because it’s measuring the contrast of the 3.4 anom vs the anomaly of the tropical waters. NOAA and BoM at the least have determined that +1.0 is deceptively high in this example because 3.4 is up to +1.0 due to GW, not because of El Niño. Measuring the true strength of ENSO means measuring the contrast with surrounding tropical waters. If 3.4 and avg tropical waters are both at +1.0c there’s essentially no contrast (no relatively warm tongue in 3.4) and thus no Nino. A contrast is needed to have a Nino (or a Niña) per the official RONI. With no contrast like in this example it is neutral. @mitchnick
×
×
  • Create New...