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GaWx

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  1. GaWx
    Up to 30% now: Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 100 PM EST Mon Nov 2 2026 Western Atlantic: An area of low pressure is likely to form along a weakening frontal boundary a few hundred miles northeast of the Bahamas in a couple of days. This system could acquire some subtropical characteristics late this week while it drifts over the western Atlantic. The chances of subtropical development should end by the weekend when the system is expected to move eastward or northeastward into unfavorable environmental conditions. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent. 12Z UKMET now forms it SE of Bermuda followed by ENE movement into the open Atlantic: MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 02.11.2026 NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 96 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 96 : 26.2N 60.7W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 06.11.2026 96 26.2N 60.7W 1000 34 0000UTC 07.11.2026 108 27.0N 59.4W 1000 32 1200UTC 07.11.2026 120 28.3N 58.7W 1000 31 0000UTC 08.11.2026 132 28.8N 56.3W 1000 33 1200UTC 08.11.2026 144 30.4N 54.0W 996 34 0000UTC 09.11.2026 156 30.1N 49.9W 992 37 1200UTC 09.11.2026 168 29.4N 45.6W 989 40
  2. GaWx
    Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 700 AM EST Mon Nov 2 2026 Western Atlantic: An area of low pressure is likely to form along a weakening frontal boundary a few hundred miles northeast of the Bahamas in a couple of days. This system could acquire some subtropical characteristics late this week while it drifts over the western Atlantic. The chances of subtropical development should end by the weekend when the system is expected to move eastward or northeastward into unfavorable environmental conditions. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent. The too bullish as of late UKMET has had this for several runs fwiw.
  3. GaWx
    Thanks, Chris. Thus based on the latest week, here’s how much lower the official relative is vs the non-relative: 1+2: 0.8 3: 0.7 3.4: 0.9 4: 1.2 So, the differences overall have been rising due to the steady warming of the global tropical waters.
  4. GaWx
    Thanks, Adam. Impressive! What is the second warmest in history for 3.4 absolute ~Nov 1st and what year?
  5. GaWx
    The new NOAA relative weeklies are out and the record strong east basedness persists with only 3.4 not rising: 23SEP2026 3.9 3.1 2.2 0.1 30SEP2026 4.5 3.3 2.3 0.1 07OCT2026 4.4 3.4 2.4 0.2 14OCT2026 4.4 3.5 2.4 0.0 21OCT2026 4.4 3.6 2.5 0.0 28OCT2026 4.6 3.7 2.5 0.2 -Nino 1+2, 3, and 3.4 are far above any other on record for the week. -Nino 1+2’s +4.6 ties with 6/29/1983 for the all-time record for any week. -Nino 3’s +3.7 is a new record high for any week beating last week’s and 12/29/1982’s +3.6. -Nino 3.4’s +2.5 is a new record high for the week beating the +2.1 of 2015 -Nino 3.4’s highest for any week is +2.9 of 12/29/1982. There’s still no guarantee that will later be exceeded though there’s a good chance as of now.
  6. GaWx
    But in terms of the IOD, Oct of ‘26 though solidly positive was very underwhelming in comparison to 2 recent years per the weekly readings: 10/2026 ~0.76 10/2019 ~1.83 10/2023 ~1.74 10/2015 ~0.83 The latest weekly bounced back only slightly from 0.69 to 0.73. At this time in these years it was much higher: 2023: 1.5 2019: 1.7 Typically, this peaks by Nov. So, if it doesn’t jump sharply within the next few weeks it very likely will never do so this Nino per past patterns. https://www.bom.gov.au/clim_data/IDCK000072/iod_1.txt?1793622027272
  7. GaWx
    Thanks and, indeed, that’s what we all are still talking about. I understand why you say it isn’t good for most, but is there a chance this would give Cape Cod a nice snowstorm?
  8. GaWx
    I have to give credit where credit is due. After nearly 4 hours, every post ITT including this one has been about a random way, way out in super lala land Euro control map. That has to be a record for an hour 912 map! That’s one amazing map to command this much attention! On a related note, Happy go back to Standard Time day! I love it for getting Euro Weeklies, 0Z Euro, and all models an hour earlier more than for anything else! I mean we’re only 3 hours from the start of the 0Z GFS!
  9. GaWx
    Thanks, Anthony, for posting that. I don’t disagree with this post done by Luzerne County. What I mean by that is IF there were to happen to be an actual H5 similar to that, it could favor a snowstorm then. But, and this is very important: this is as it says just the control run for EW hour 912 (0Z on 12/9/26) rather than the EW mean for hour 912. So, this is like an op Euro at hour 912, which of course has no forecasting skill and will change notably from run to run the vast majority of the time. For that matter, I’d say this about hour 312 or even earlier of the op Euro or op anything. I know you know this, but you may not realize this is just the near worthless way out in the extended control run. They clearly want clicks and thus was a bad post by Luzerne County imho. A more informative post by Luzerne County, even though it is still way way out there, would have shown the EW means for the week covering that period, Dec 7-13: H5: 2m temps: Precip: Not the worst pattern by any means but far from great. @mitchnick
  10. GaWx
    1. There may be an increased chance at an overall significant DJF averaged -AO after a Nov SSW during El Niño. I found only 4 Nino Novs with a SSW (>15 dip of 10 hPa/60N winds to <10): 1968: dropped ~37 to ~-8 on ~Nov 27th; DJF AO -2.3 (3rd lowest of all winters since 1950) 1976: dropped ~26 to ~+4 on ~Nov 15th; DJF AO -2.6 (2nd lowest of all winters since 1950) 1979: dropped ~24 to ~+6 on ~Nov 23rd; DJF AO -0.6 (31st lowest of all winters since 1950) 2009: dropped ~17 to ~+6 on ~Nov 15th; DJF AO -3.4 (lowest of all winters since 1950) So, avg DJF AO for these 4 winters was way down at -2.2 —————— 2. At least one major SSW followed during each of these 4 winters.
  11. GaWx
    Per @Stormchaserchuck1the lag this early is typically 30-45 days. That would imply that any colder air coming down related to this SSW if it’s going to occur would likely not occur til early to mid Dec. However, there could always be colder periods not related to this SSW coming down earlier, of course.
  12. GaWx
    Latest OISST anomalies per cyclonicwx: RONI: hardly any net change since Oct 1 (ONI graph similar): reduce this a few tenths to estimate NOAA’s weeklies. This shows no signs of heading to +3.5 as of this time, especially if one considers that NOAA’s weeklies have been coming in a few tenths cooler Nino 1+2 non-relative: only a very slight net rise since Oct 1 Nino 3 non-relative: ~0.35C rise since Oct 1 Nino 4 non-relative very little net change since Oct 1 because recent rise followed a fall
  13. GaWx
    Speaking of JB, these are his analogs for NDJFM per yesterday’s free to all “Saturday Summary”:
  14. GaWx
    CANSIPS, like seasonal models in general, is highly deficient. I have the impression that it is one of the more deficient ones in general. But even the better seasonal models (like the Euro supposedly is, for example) have their deficiencies. In a way, I’m glad because if they weren’t deficient the seasonal models would be in agreement and would be pretty much right all of the time (assuming accurate initializations), and then there’d be far less of a need to have these intense forecasting discussions. Thus, there’d be far fewer than 233 pages ITT, for example.
  15. GaWx
    What’s odd is the comparison of the record high 10 hPa/60N-90N temps in Oct/Nov on NCEP (top) and NASA (bottom). NCEP looks like it has artifacts caused by algorithmic errors with two nearly vertical peaks that don’t look natural. Thus I’ve decided that the NASA graph is correct, and record high temps are being forecasted at 10 hPa/60-90N after all with 217K ~Nov 8th. NCEP Oct/Nov 2 near vertical peaks for old record high temps (black) don’t look natural/look like artifacts and thus this makes it appear nowhere near record high temps are being forecasted (green): NASA Oct/Nov old record high temps don’t have artifacts and thus new early Nov record high temps are being forecasted (red), which makes sense due to this being the first on record early Nov SSW causing record shattering low 10 hPa/60N winds:
  16. GaWx
    Record shattering low 10 hPa winds 1st 1/2 of Nov:
  17. GaWx
    Now that the multi-run CFS’ have warmed considerably in the E US for Feb vs how they were a couple of weeks ago, the above Nov Cansips run for Feb is notably colder by ~2F than the latest 3 day CFS for Feb, which is below (even after considering the ~1F colder climo being used by this TT CFS):
  18. GaWx
    I ended up with 4.3” of rainfall this month, which is slightly above normal. But I’ve gotten none since Oct 11th, which was from a feeder band with thunderstorms that woke me ~7AM from the influence of Isaias’ remnants and which was just ahead of a cold front. I got a total of 1.6” from Isaias Oct 9-11th. The wx especially early this week and last week with comfy dewpoints and sunshine was great for outdoor activities. Due to the combo of persistent breezy NE winds most of this week and the full moon early this week, there was coastal flooding near times of high tide Oct 25th-29th despite sunny wx (“King Tides”).
  19. GaWx
    Despite the historical earliest SSW and accompanying historically weak early Nov 10 hPa/60N winds, the 60-90N 10 hPa avg temp. is only going to rise ~5C and stay well below the record warmest for early Nov. So, it’s a mixed bag of sorts.
  20. GaWx
    1. Even with this rapid recovery, which is not at all uncommon for an early SSW as climo rises well into Dec, Nov as a whole would still ~tie for the lowest avg 10 hPa/60N wind (back to 1948). 2. I’ve got RONI monthly/trimonthly peaking ~+3.0C/~+2.8C now.
  21. GaWx
    Whereas the progged drop in the 10 hPa 60N winds is quite impressive, the progged overall temp. rise of the 60-90N region at 10 hPa (~5-6C and only to ~-57C vs early Nov record of -43C and others in Jan/Feb rising 15-20C) is not because it is mainly on the Russian side with less on our side of the pole:
  22. GaWx
    Comparing Oct 1st with Oct 29th, neither 3.4 nor 1+2 have changed much: But Nino 3 has had a steady rise: Nino 4 ended up ~same but that’s because after a 1st half drop it had a sharp rise last 5 days:
  23. GaWx
    After a mild DJ, Cosgrove has a frigid Feb: With the rapid decline of the El Nino and evidence for high-latitude ridging and cross-polar flow, I went in a colder direction for February to the right of the Continental Divide. The southern branch jet stream looks depressed into the Deep South and up off of the Eastern Seaboard, which would seem to favor more cold air and frozen precipitation. While I do not think that we will have a 2009 or 2015 type outcome, I lean toward a colder look than what official and major vendor sources are showing for February.
  24. GaWx
    Cosgrove’s just released Nov forecast disagrees just slightly : I think that CWG will verify much more closely based on the Euro Weeklies.
  25. GaWx
    Recent 10 day mean CFS runs have warmed for Feb: 10 days ago: Today:
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