GaWx

And also the real “Rain Cold” as he is also known. Based on ensemble 2 week progs, the -NAO for Nov overall is quite possibly (or even probably) going to end up the strongest in Nov since 2010. 2000 is a Nov strong -NAO, late Nov weak SPV, and active sunspots analog. If the MJO were to keep going and get into 7/8/1/2/3 in Dec, that would also be like 2000.

Also on 2000’s side is that it had a very weak SPV in late Nov (though not a reversal) and active sunspots. If the MJO were to keep going and get into 7/8/1/2/3 in Dec, that would also be like 2000.

Today’s Euro 10 mb got slightly weaker and I’d call it 2nd best only barely behind 3 days ago (depends on criteria): once again it’s showing a real threat of earliest SSWE since 1968! 3 days ago 1 year ago: near avg/much stronger than ‘25:

Per model consensus progs: -Nov ‘25 is likely headed toward a strong -NAO Niña Nov like that of 2010, 2000, 1995, 1983, 1973, 1955, and 1950. -Of those: all but 1973 had BN temp. in Dec at NYC with 4 of 7 having a MB Dec including the 1st 3 on the list. Though on avg for all winters Feb has been 3 F colder than Dec, the Febs for these 7 averaged 2.4 F warmer than the Decs. -Of these: 2010, 1973, and 1955 also had a -NAO Oct like 2025. -Of those, 1995 had a similar Nov MJO. -Of those: 2010, 1995, and 1955 had a sub -0.25 NAO winter. All 3 of those had a very cold Dec. But of those 3, only 1955 had active sunspots fwiw. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/norm.nao.monthly.b5001.current.ascii.table

Here’s today’s GEFS MJO forecast: EPS: ——————- Here are the 4 closest Niña Nov MJO analogs: 2007: 1998: 1995: 1985: —————— Now here are the 4 honorable mentions: 2022: 2008: 1989: 1983: @snowman19

Similar to yesterday meaning Wednesday’s run (mean dipped to only +7) remains the weakest: Wed. run:

I don’t think this is true. Now if they had a cold bias, that would be true.

I of course don’t post every day’s runs. But because I posted yesterday’s significantly colder week 4, I felt obligated to post today’s significantly warmer week 4 so as to not appear one-sided. Chuck’s guess that that was a top 15 percentile jump is as reasonable an educated guess as any. So, it was a “pretty big jump” as he said though nothing at all extreme, especially considering that’s still out at week 4. Consider how much colder it got for early next week on all models since that was during only week 2! So, considering all of this and the inherent unpredictability out a month, sig. jumps that far out on any long range ensemble are pretty common and shouldn’t ever be surprising.

I think Josh said he was in the right eyewall. But I don’t think he was in the eye itself.

If we get that early SSWE, any E US cold affects would probably be stronger in Jan than in Dec based on typical lag time.

Today’s Euro Weeklies run for Dec 1-7 has backed off significantly from yesterday’s run, which was the coldest run yet. It looks like the run from 2 days ago. Also, the subsequent two weeks are warmer than yesterday. All 3 weeks are now near normal in most of the E US. Dec 1-7: Today Yesterday:

Looks like a Dec/Jan winter the way it appears now. That would be hard to beat.

Here are the progs for Nov 11th lows from the latest ICON/CMC/Euro/GFS/UKMET1. GA-SAV: 29/31/34/34/35-NE ATL (Chamblee): 25/23/29/34/322. SC-GSP: 23/21/29/27/29-CAE: 28/32/33/32/343. NC-CLT: 25/30/31/29/32-RDU: 28/34/32/32/35—————————Average for each model for the 6 cities:ICON: 26.3CMC: 28.5Euro: 31.3GFS: 31.3UKMET: 32.6Any guesses for:1. Which model for the 6 cities averaged out will do best?2. Which model for the 6 cities averaged out will do worst?———————My guesses: 1. Best: Euro/GFS (tie) 2. Worst: ICON Edit: I’m guessing that the average low for these 6 cities will be 30.5F.

The fall foliage here is headed to a significantly earlier peak than average. This is the earliest I can recall in many years! Recent years have peaked in the last week of Nov or Dec. Anyone else have a fall leaf report?

Hey Anthony, Looks great! It isn’t quite as good as yesterday’s, which was the best run yet as it had the mean drop to 7 at the low point, but I still love this!

Euro Weeklies Dec 1-7: today’s run is coldest run yet

WeatherBell is good for models (although their CFS maps have major issues).

From elsewhere: The number of deaths caused by Melissa on Jamaica is now 35 and still rising with an unknown number of people missing. Unfortunately, as expected, this makes Melissa one of the deadliest hurricanes in Jamaica in the recorded database (1851 - now) and the deadliest since Gilbert (using the current death toll). Here are the other most destructive hurricanes in Jamaica since 1851.Hurricane / Year / Death tollCharlie / 1951 / 1521912 Jamaica hurricane / 1912 / 1001903 Jamaica hurricane / 1903 / 65Gilbert / 1988 / 45Tropical Depression One / 1979 / 41Melissa / 2025 / 35 That’s from Kevin, a Storm2K poster

Here’s my current NWS forecast low for Nov 11th:MONDAY NIGHT CLEAR. LOWS AROUND 30.- If this verifies, it would be the earliest freeze at KSAV since the 11/7 32 low of 2010-If it gets down to the predicted 30, that would be the coldest so early in the season since way back in 1976! https://www.weather.gov/wrh/Climate?wfo=chs

Here’s my current NWS forecast low for Nov 11th:MONDAY NIGHT CLEAR. LOWS AROUND 30.- If this verifies, it would be the earliest freeze at KSAV since the 11/7 32 low of 2010-If it gets down to the predicted 30, that would be the coldest so early in the season since way back in 1976! https://www.weather.gov/wrh/Climate?wfo=chs

Hey Don, Thanks for clarifying. The 1+2 anomalies are found at this ERSST monthlies link that has the four Nino anomalies (warning: these are all based on 1991-2020 anomalies rather than being based on moving base periods): https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/ersst5.nino.mth.91-20.ascii

Hey Don, I’m still confused about 1951-2 and 1952-3. 1. 1951-2 had cooling rather than warming from Nov through Feb (coming out of El Niño) and with none of the monthlies near that -0.5 threshold: Nov 1951: +1.19 Dec 1951: +0.74 Jan 1952: +0.49 Feb 1952: +0.37 2. 1952-3 had sharp warming in Jan but these were nowhere near the -0.5 threshold that you were going by: Nov 1952: -0.14 Dec 1952: +0.03 Jan 1953: +0.56 Feb 1953: +0.61 https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/detrend.nino34.ascii.txt

Thanks, Don. Did you mean to include 1951-2 and 1952-3 or are those typos?

Paul Roundy talks about the Euro showing the El Niño returning next spring. However, I’d advise caution due to a warm bias that I’ve noticed with the Euro based on many years of Nino 3.4 SST anomaly data: ECMWF clearly moving toward El Niño solutions this spring. Huge Maritime Continent westerly wind event developing, which will move warm water volume from the eastern Indian Ocean to the West Pacific. In the meantime, Pacific trade wind surge will maintain La Niña conditions for a couple more months.

Eric Webb expects a rapid -IOD collapse starting soon, which models are showing the effects of as I showed on their Dec IO SST anomaly maps. He’s expecting El Niño to get started very early, which he said elsewhere could conceivably save Feb from being a mild month (we’ll see): A more rapid shift towards El Niño is probably the one wild card we could play that would have the potential to significantly alter the outcome of the latter part of this winter/February in our favor (though even then it wouldn't be a guarantee that things would shift favorably even in that scenario).