GaWx

And we can add the 0Z Euro, too, with a full-blown very intense storm (12Z Euro also had it)!

It’s also on the 0Z UKMET, the 3rd run in a row with this one a little stronger with a min of 1003 mb/max of 52 knots/60 mph. It forms off of S SC and then moves N into NC OB area followed by a move E offshore and then a S drift as it weakens: NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 72 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 72 : 32.4N 76.0W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 0000UTC 18.10.2026 72 32.4N 76.0W 1010 42 1200UTC 18.10.2026 84 34.0N 75.1W 1008 48 0000UTC 19.10.2026 96 32.5N 75.9W 1003 52 1200UTC 19.10.2026 108 34.2N 75.2W 1005 45 0000UTC 20.10.2026 120 36.2N 75.6W 1004 40 1200UTC 20.10.2026 132 36.6N 74.7W 1006 35 0000UTC 21.10.2026 144 36.4N 73.1W 1007 33 1200UTC 21.10.2026 156 35.0N 72.7W 1009 34 0000UTC 22.10.2026 168 32.7N 73.4W 1012 35

I’m assuming this is tropical on the 0Z Icon: holy cow!

John, thanks. Are you referring to the late Sept of ‘26 nor’easter? If so, I was just counting ones in October though I realize it was within a week of Oct and thus very likely largely connected to the very strong Nino. But I didn’t check Sept for any of those 9 analogs. So, if we count that one, does that reduce the chance for a 2nd E coast storm later this month? I never found two really notable E coast storms for any of the 9 analog years in Oct, itself. I suspect that may be more than just randomness. Maybe one strong E coast storm late Sept/Oct is enough to sort of calm down the atmosphere and prevent a 2nd one? What do you think? If so and if we count the late Sep nor’easter, maybe that would reduce the chance for another for the rest of Oct?

Based on 100% of the 9 very strong Nino analogs back to 1877-8 having a near E coast (SE and/or NE) storm of some kind in October, I’m leaning to cyclogenesis next week close enough to affect parts of the E coast. This could be a nor’easter, a TC, or hybrid. These include -early Oct 2015 highly unusual complex setup associated with a combo of well offshore Joaquin and a SE US ET upper low/stationary front resulting in devastating SC flooding rain -late Oct 1991 “Perfect Storm” hybrid in NE -late Oct 1982 strong nor’easter centered on mid-Atlantic that lead to a very rare Oct combo of a long duration of continuous rain, strong winds, and cold (40s) -early Oct 1972 very strong nor’easter that was worst Hatteras to NYC (both ~4”+ rain) -early Oct 1957 strong nor’easter hit Hatteras/lower mid-Atlantic hardest ————— Edit: @Typhoon TipI think was pointing out that the late Sep ‘26 nor’easter may have been close enough to Oct to count as the ‘26 version. I’m waiting for him to clarify. But if so, I do wonder if that reduces the chance for one next week since I found only one in Oct for each of the 9 years. Hmmm. Any thoughts anyone?

The 12Z UKMET, Euro, Euro AIFS, and Icon all have a storm of some sort have a storm off the E coast next week. I’m noting this because there’s a strong correlation between very strong El Niños and having one significant to historic U.S. E coast storm in Oct as ALL 9 of the other very strong El Niño Octobers had one: -1877: Hatteras had 1002 mb on 10/27 along with significant rainfall and strong NE winds caused by gradient between a sub 1000 mb low offshore and a 1022 mb high over Quebec. Norfolk got 2.71” of rain. The low was TS #7 then to the S moving OTS: -1888: TS #7 went up the coast 10/11-12: -1957: a strong nor’easter (995 mb) went up the coast 10/5-6 giving Hatteras 4.62” of rain: https://library.oarcloud.noaa.gov/docs.lib/htdocs/rescue/dwm/1957/19571006.pdf -1965: TS # 9 formed 10/16 NW Bahamas and hit NE FL 10/19 producing 8.3” on rain at CHS: -1972: very strong nor’easter went up coast NC-NE 10/5-8 with strong winds and heavy rains (>4” NYC, nearly 4” Hatteras): https://library.oarcloud.noaa.gov/docs.lib/htdocs/rescue/dwm/1972/19721002-19721008.pdf -1982: strong winds/heavy rain (3.64” of rain Hatteras) from nor’easter 10/23-26 due to strong gradient between 1004 mb low Hatteras and 1030 mb high NE US. I experienced this in DC and still clearly recall the unusual combo of continuous rain, wind, and cold: https://library.oarcloud.noaa.gov/docs.lib/htdocs/rescue/dwm/1982/19821018-19821024.pdf https://library.oarcloud.noaa.gov/docs.lib/htdocs/rescue/dwm/1982/19821025-19821031.pdf -1991: “Perfect Storm” 10/30-11/1 H #8 (Boston 2.69” of rain): 1997: nor’easter 10/18-20 (Hatteras 1.4” of rain): https://library.oarcloud.noaa.gov/docs.lib/htdocs/rescue/dwm/1997/19971013-19971019.pdf https://library.oarcloud.noaa.gov/docs.lib/htdocs/rescue/dwm/1997/19971020-19971026.pdf 2015: strong front pushed by 1045 mb SE Canadian high gets hung up along E coast with ~stationary upper low SE US and MH Joaquin ~stationary Bahamas interacting in a way few have ever seen resulting in >17”/historic flooding CHS Oct 1-4: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dailywxmap/dwm_stnplot_20151002.html —————— So, all 9 very strong El Niño had one impactful to historic US E coast storm in Oct! Are the 12Z UKMET, Euro, Euro-AIFS, and Icon sniffing out something real for 2026’s turn? Based on the history noted above, I wouldn’t at this point discount at least the possibility of something notable happening near the E coast next week.

There’s a strong correlation between very strong El Niños and having one significant to historic U.S. E coast storm in Oct as ALL 9 of the other very strong El Niño Octobers had one: -1877: Hatteras had 1002 mb on 10/27 along with significant rainfall and strong NE winds caused by gradient between a sub 1000 mb low offshore and a 1022 mb high over Quebec. Norfolk got 2.71” of rain. The low was TS #7 then to the S moving OTS: -1888: TS #7 went up the coast 10/11-12: -1957: a strong nor’easter (995 mb) went up the coast 10/5-6 giving Hatteras 4.62” of rain: https://library.oarcloud.noaa.gov/docs.lib/htdocs/rescue/dwm/1957/19571006.pdf -1965: TS # 9 formed 10/16 NW Bahamas and hit NE FL 10/19 producing 8.3” on rain at CHS: -1972: very strong nor’easter went up coast NC-NE 10/5-8 with strong winds and heavy rains (>4” NYC, nearly 4” Hatteras): https://library.oarcloud.noaa.gov/docs.lib/htdocs/rescue/dwm/1972/19721002-19721008.pdf -1982: strong winds/heavy rain (3.64” of rain Hatteras) from nor’easter 10/23-26 due to strong gradient between 1004 mb low Hatteras and 1030 mb high NE US. I experienced this in DC and still clearly recall the unusual combo of continuous rain, wind, and cold: https://library.oarcloud.noaa.gov/docs.lib/htdocs/rescue/dwm/1982/19821018-19821024.pdf https://library.oarcloud.noaa.gov/docs.lib/htdocs/rescue/dwm/1982/19821025-19821031.pdf 1991: “Perfect Storm” 10/30-11/1 H #8 (Boston 2.69” of rain): 1997: nor’easter 10/18-20 (Hatteras 1.4” of rain): https://library.oarcloud.noaa.gov/docs.lib/htdocs/rescue/dwm/1997/19971013-19971019.pdf https://library.oarcloud.noaa.gov/docs.lib/htdocs/rescue/dwm/1997/19971020-19971026.pdf 2015: strong front pushed by 1045 mb SE Canadian high gets hung up along E coast with ~stationary upper low SE US and MH Joaquin ~stationary Bahamas interacting in a way few have ever seen resulting in >17”/historic flooding CHS Oct 1-4: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dailywxmap/dwm_stnplot_20151002.html So, all 9 very strong El Niño had one impactful to historic US E coast storm in Oct! Are the 12Z UKMET, Euro, Euro-AIFS, and Icon sniffing out something real for 2026’s turn? Based on the history noted above, I wouldn’t at this point discount at least the possibility of something notable happening near the E coast next week.

It is, indeed, looking dry in the SE the next ~2 weeks. The Euro Weeklies have been showing this for a number of runs. However, those same EW for 6 straight runs have also been showing the likely El Niño induced polar opposite (wetter than normal) for every one of the subsequent 4 weeks ending the Sun of Thanksgiving Week (as far out as they currently go): Dry 10/19-25: Mainly slightly wet 10/26-11/1: Slightly wet 11/2-8: Wet 11/9-15: Slightly wet 11/16-22:

Thanks, Anthony. One thing I’ll say is that there’s nothing unusual about having a W QBO during a very strong El Niño as: -1957, 1982, and 2015 had it -1965, 1972, 1991, and 1997 didn’t

GEFS also sees this: The most similar El Niño Octobers to this forecast of a solid -NAO in late Oct after a mainly +NAO in early to mid Oct are 1976 and 1963 with 2002 the next most similar. @Stormchaserchuck1

Thanks. I didn’t include 72 and 97 because they were during a different part of the QBO cycle. 72: at the end of a negative phase (far different) 97: start of a new negative phase ( not nearly as far off as 72 but still off enough to already go <0 in Jan and I’m expecting +8 through Feb. All of the other 5 analogs were +QBO through Feb.)

It’s not a matter of “if” because it’s a certainty. Also that favors E US warmth in December as @snowman19has emphasized. Dec of 2015, 2006, 1987, 1982, and 1957 were all mild in the E US (other than 1957 being NN in the SE).

Thanks! I just got on my PC and can see the updating table. For whatever reason, when I do it on my phone, it requires a download of the data. I don’t get why they can’t have it more accessible like for the PSL link. Anyway, this NOAA 30 mb update for Mar 26+ is following the general pattern of the ATMOS Hub values along with the sometimes slightly faster transition to positive phase in addition to sig. higher amp on both ends as I mentioned. So this essentially confirms what ATMOS Hub showed us. Therefore due to the easier access to the ATMOS Hub data on my cell, I’m probably going to use ATMOS Hub at least as often as NOAA’s now harder to see on cellphone data. Plus I like ATMOS’ excellent graphic showing the entire atmosphere and how it progresses with the QBO cycle possibly even during mid month thus giving us a little bit of heads up that the monthly tables don’t show: CPC vs ATMOS (rounded) Mar -17 vs -31 Apr -9 vs -7 May -2 vs +6 June +4 vs +8 July +9 vs +13 Aug +11 vs +12 Sep +13 vs +18

Thanks 1. It being the driest time of year means it isn’t all that unusual. 2. Oct is typically too early for the Nino STJ moisture as that usually doesn’t get going til close to Nov or often not til Nov, itself. That’s what the Euro Weeklies are suggesting.

Where was the second one? How strong was the one that hit Fayetteville?

EF2 from feederband, which was just ahead of a cold front, from remnants of Isaias in Duplin County, NC yesterday (10/11/26)!

Surveys done for 4 GA/SC Saturday 10/10/26 tornadoes produced by a super-cell thunderstorm: 3 EF-1 and 1 EF-0 -Fortunately no deaths or injuries -2 of 4 caused structural and/or automobile damage -All 4 caused notable tree damage https://www.weather.gov/chs/Tornadoes-October2026

EF2 from feederband, which was just ahead of a cold front, from remnants of Isaias in Duplin County, NC yesterday (10/11/26)!

Surveys done for 4 GA/SC Saturday 10/10/26 tornadoes directly related to the influence of post-tropical Isaias: 3 EF-1 and 1 EF-0 -Fortunately no deaths or injuries -2 of 4 caused structural and/or automobile damage -All 4 caused notable tree damage https://www.weather.gov/chs/Tornadoes-October2026

Following up on my last post (QBO): Based on my expectation of each of DJF being at +8+ QBO and also within a mature +QBO phase as opposed to near the start of it, here are the best QBO/ENSO analogs in order of quality taking into account the timing within the +QBO phase, the QBO amp, and the Nino strength: -2015-6 strongest analog: ~identical QBO timing/similar QBO amp, super-Nino -1982-3 super-Nino and similar QBO amp but QBO 3 month later start of + phase -1957-8 not quite super-Nino, QBO 2 month earlier start of + phase and weaker JF amp -1987-8 Nino only mod & 2nd year and QBO 3 month later start of + phase -2006-7 easily weakest of these analogs because only weak Nino and QBO 2 month earlier start of + phase along with only +1 Feb QBO

I agree about 30 mb being off in amplitude but the patterns as you’ll see below are very similar. Thus, that allows me to still predict with a very high level of confidence that a solid +QBO is in store for all of this winter. Here are the tabular 30 mb QBO values since Jan ‘25 for the table that stopped updating (PSL): 2025 12.11 10.55 11.82 6.94 -4.59 -13.72 -19.99 -22.28 -24.26 -24.65 -25.35 -26.92 2026 -25.51 -23.13 To compare, here are the tabular 30 mb values from the QBO link that @EasternLIposted this morning for the still updating site (ATMO) (bolded are the ones we can’t compare to old table, 3/26+) 2025 10.3 7.3 8.4 4.7 -16.5 -25.4 -27.8 -29.2 -30.5 -30.8 -30.0 -29.7. 2026 -29.2 -31.2 -30.9 -7.0 5.7 7.5 13.3 11.5 17.6 ATMO graph closeup for 2023+: jibes 100% with their textual values (actually the entire graph back to 1953 jibes): My observations in comparing the 30 mb tables of ATMO to PSL since 1953: -ATMO sometimes is slightly faster than PSL in switching phases, but the average is only a half month faster in switching from positive to negative (minimal). So, phase switching times are very similar. -ATMO almost always lower than PSL when negative: I counted 20 cycles out of 32 with ATMO negative dips <-30 vs none for PSL -ATMO least negative dip -25.0 in 8/1954 when PSL dipped only down to -14.53, also their least negative dip since 1953 -Lowest ATMO: -35.5 in 9/1996 (when PSL was -26.02) -Lowest PSL: -29.55 in 11/2005 (when ATMO was -33.3) -ATMO higher peak than PSL 29 cycles out of 33: I count 17 cycles out of 33 with ATMO peaks of 16+ vs none for PSL -Highest ATMO: +22.0 in 1/1953 (when PSL was -2.94) -Highest PSL: 15.62 in 6/1995 (when ATMO was 15.1) -So, ATMO cycles have higher amplitude than PSL though very similarly timed -# of months in positive periods in ATMO lasting 10+ months: 32 of 33. Longest on record is 18 months. ——————— The last stat tells me with near 100% confidence that all of winter ‘26-7 will be positive on ATMO. Why? The first positive month in the current phase was May of ‘26. The 10th month would be Feb of ‘27. Also, 22 of 33 positive phases lasted 12+ months with the avg length of a positive phase on ATMO being 13 months. Thus, my best guess as to the final month in the current positive phase per ATMO is within one month of May of ‘27. More than likely Feb of ‘27 will on ATMO still be >+10. The latest I can see the last positive month is Oct of ‘27 based on the 18 month record.

If the IOD guru Adam were still posting (will he ever come back?), I’d now be asking him about the potential very strong +IOD that’s been expected this autumn. It clearly is positive, but it isn’t strong per BoM (at least not yet as it still has til Nov to see if it will jump way up based on the past): As of 10/4/26, the weekly was +0.6. Note that the peak for 2026 so far was actually way back on 3/8/26 (+0.9). Then it fell back to 0 in May, but was then followed by a general rise til now. How does 2026’s +0.6 compare to some past Oct 4ths for Ninos/warm neutral along with 2 Ninas that had an unusual +IOD? 2026 +0.6 2023 +1.8 2019 +1.8 2018 +0.1 2015 +1.1 2014 +0.1 2012 +0.1 2011 +0.6 (mod Nina) 2009 -0.3 2008 +0.2 (weak Nina) —————— As one can see, Nino 2023 and warm neutral 2019 both had triple 2026! Also, Nino 2015 was nearly double. In addition, Nina 2011 was the same! (Aside: Nino 2009 was still negative although it had an unusually very late IOD peak of +0.7 on 1/4/2010.) So, as I said, 2026 isn’t exactly setting the world on fire so far regarding a +IOD. I’ll keep following. Any thoughts? ———————— Weekly IOD 2008+: https://www.bom.gov.au/clim_data/IDCK000072/iod_1.txt?1791781094025

Meanwhile, the remnants of Isaias are directly responsible for tornadoes today in NC, including a damaging one in Fayetteville and several others in the Triangle region! This is serious stuff and is the 2nd day in a row of this.

Donald Trump is toying with the idea of renaming the Atlantic Ocean the Trump Ocean. No, I’m not making this up: https://nypost.com/2026/10/11/us-news/president-trump-toys-with-renaming-atlantic-and-pacific-trump-ocean/ Now, I don’t know if he’s serious, of course. I suspect he’s really just trolling. But he has already changed the name of two bodies of water. So, it may be trolling plus a little seriousness. Can you imagine if he were to actually do this? -The title for next year’s Atlantic thread may need to be “The Trump Hurricane Season”. -NHC TWOs will then start out as: “The tropical weather outlook for the North Trump...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:” -Instead of saying you live on the Atlantic coast, you’d then be saying you live on the Trump coast. -The Middle Atlantic states would then become known as the Middle Trump states - NAO would become the North Trump Oscillation. -The ACC would change to the TCC. -He wasn’t able to make Canada the 51st state. But the Atlantic provinces of Canada would become the Trump provinces of Canada. Good enough for him and maybe even better. -Atlantic City? No more as the new name would be Trump City. -Atlantic Standard Time’s new name? Trump Standard Time

That line of convection that has extended from NC to FL and came through this area as thunderstorms around dawn-sunrise has been just ahead of a cold front pushing E to the S of Isaias’ remnant low (see image below). That’s what was needed to finally bring dewpoints here back down from the 24 hour long oppressive mid to upper 70s to the current low 60s as winds shifted from S to SW to a drier W.