GaWx

Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Sat Aug 8 2026 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America: Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic: A tropical wave is expected to move off the west coast of Africa on Tuesday. Some development of this system will be possible during the middle to latter part of next week while it moves westward across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent. $$ Forecaster Berg 0Z UKMET NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 132 HOURSFORECAST POSITION AT T+132 : 12.6N 33.9WLEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WINDVERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------1200UTC 13.08.2026 132 12.6N 33.9W 1011 340000UTC 14.08.2026 144 13.0N 38.3W 1011 281200UTC 14.08.2026 156 14.1N 42.3W 1011 320000UTC 15.08.2026 168 15.4N 47.2W 1012 36

Due to an inverted trough, heavy showers are occurring in the area moving from off the ocean including here. Rain started just after 8AM.

July OHC of +2.96 set a new record high back to 1979 breaking old record of +2.56 (Oct 1997)!

Arctic ice area has been doing relatively well vs the 2013-24 average! This has quite possibly been helped by the coldest late May-early Aug on record per DMI 80+ N Arctic mean temp since records started in 1958:

Arctic ice area has been doing relatively well! This has quite possibly been helped by the coldest late May-early Aug on record per DMI 80+ N Arctic mean temp since records started in 1958:

Although the -SOI streak is up to a whopping 89 days and it will reach the low 90s (2nd longest on record back to 1991 by a large margin to early 1998’s 100 days), there’s a good chance it will finally end early next week short of the 100 day record with at least one smallish +SOI as it now appears. Let’s see what actually happens.

Folks believe Maue’s purposefully trying to sound overly dramatic to make fun of the doomsayers on social media.

I know this Nino is headed toward 175 year record obliterating status. Be that as it may, is Maue being just a bit overly-dramatic for clicks/likes? It sounds so dramatic that it sounds like sarcasm: He originally said this way back in April: https://www.tribuneindia.com/news/weather-report/weather-expert-warns-this-years-mega-el-nino-could-be-strongest-since-1877/amp

Need I say more? 12Z 8/5/26 CFSv2 AAM: all 4 members get to 4+ for one day on day 14 (8/18/26):

A 3rd year in a row of measurable snow down here on/near the coast of GA would be amazing since it would be unprecedented in the modern day record book (back to 1870s).

New Euro at 2m: looks good to me but I expect Dec to be mild. So, I’d take this in a heartbeat! Jan is slightly cooler: I like

-SOI is up to 87 straight days. Record is 1998’s 100 days. I don’t know if it will make it to 100. -1015+ Darwin streak ended at 26 days, breaking old record back to 1991 of 20 days

I don’t live at sea level and wouldn’t due to flooding risk, even though I live within 15 miles of the coast. I live 25-30 feet above SL. But those not worried about flooding/storm risk have plenty reason to live right on the coast due to the beautiful views as well as refreshingly cooling and clean sea breezes, especially in summer.

I don’t know whether or not it is clueless, but the new (8/1) Euro Atlantic seasonal forecast for Sept and beyond isn’t as inactive as what the Apr-June versions showed, which were below normal. This new one, similar to the July run, is actually pretty close to the 1993-2025 climate mean for Sept+ with 8.9 TS and 3.3 MH: https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/seaso ... 2608010000

OHC is still rising and is now at insanely high levels (>+3), especially for early August! @snowman19

Even the Euro’s 3.4 RONI peaks at ~+3.4 in Nov, which would obliterate the current record of +2.5 set Jan 1982! Note that in switching from ERSST version 5 to 6, the record warmest has dropped at it had been +2.7 based on ERSST version 5. This prog is slightly warmer than the peaks of +3.3 on the prior run (July) and +3.2 on the June run: 8/2/26 3.4 RONI peak ~+3.4 in Nov:

Yesterday’s 12Z CFSv2 run has the AAM at 4+ for all 4 members simultaneously for only the 2nd run I’ve ever seen! This has that on day 15 (Aug 18th) although it is just for that one day. The only other run that I’ve seen with all 4 members at 4+ at the same time on any day is the 8/1/26 12Z run and it didn’t have that til way out only 3 days from the end of the run (day 32 or 9/1/26)! @snowman19 12Z 8/4/26 CFSv2 AAM: all >4 on 8/18/26

Thanks for posting about this perspective about borealization, which presents it as a net negative. Modeling the potential myriad of effects of continued GW for the globe as a whole remains a highly complex and thus difficult endeavor. Thus having good discussions on these topics is beneficial.

I’m referring to the increase in boreal forests and the overall increased green areas of the globe as being a positive spect of CC, not the increased fires themselves.

AND What?! Are wildfires getting worse, or is the situation getting better? What can we expect going forward - more burn area globally as a result of a warming planet, or lessin concert with the present trend? This post wades into this apparent paradox and reasserts the idea that both the present and the future of wildfire burn area is highly linked to anthropogenic climate change. Yes, global burn area is declining, but it’s uneven regionally Globally, burn area from fires is indeed showing a robust declining trend over the last two decades. Some regions, however, have seen a pronounced increase over this period (especially boreal forest ecosystems). The longer term trends, as shown in the figure below, vary substantially from one model and dataset to the next, but generally speaking the story is that northern remote areas (especially boreal forest ecosystems and northern peatlands) are seeing an increase in recent decades, and tropical areas - especially in Africa’s savannah areas - have seen a decrease. Why is this happening? The specifics are complex, but the general explanation can be found in major expansions in agricultural development in Africa, which have helped drive “significant declines [in burn area] in African savannahs… despite significant increases in fire weather, and especially extreme fire weather, in the region.” This is, after all, savannah-grasslands account for more than half of global burn area, and so a significant reduction in that biome has a pronounced effect on the global totals. “Satellite data tracking shows that Earth's boreal forests have expanded in total area by about 12% (roughly 0.844 million square kilometers) and shifted northward as a result of warming temperatures.” https://science.nasa.gov/missions/landsat/boreal-forests-are-shifting-north/ This is a positive result from CC. Not all results of CC are bad. The overall greening of the globe is obviously a good thing even though it can also lead to increased wildfires due to increased potential fuel. And this being a carbon sink is helpful. The positive effects of CC are often minimized and thus there should be a more balanced presentation of its overall effects even if the net overall effect isn’t positive, which is where I’ve been leaning largely because of my concern about rising sea levels. Of course the future rate of sea level rise is a huge unknown and nobody knows how bad it actually will get.

That’s the link I’ve been going to also. That’s because whenever I google NOAA PDO or PDO NOAA, it takes me there. (I don’t have it saved as a bookmark.) But the server has been N/A much of the time since yesterday for some reason.

What’s weird is that NOAA July PDO of -1.29 isn’t as negative as NOAA June of -1.32 despite the big plunge on WCS in July!!

I just saw -1.29 rather than -2.03 for NOAA July 2026 PDO here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/ersst/v5/v6/index/ersst.v6.pdo.dat That’s almost exactly what the WCS dailies in July average at. The vast majority of the time NOAA has been significantly more negative like had been the case since Feb.

A second straight day with a dousing on the way? It just started at 12:30PM and is picking up in intensity as radar confirms. Edit 4PM: That turned out to be only ~0.1”. But there’s more storms nearby that may add to this. Edit: I ended up with a total of ~0.25” on 8/3.

From that same pro-met, the strong support for a solid La Niña by next fall is there. This is just for ASO: If you look at RONI values that exceeded 1.0 in ASO, the higher end events almost always resulted in La Nina by the next year's ASO:1957: 1.2 -> 0.21963: 1.0 -> -0.61965: 1.9 -> 0.01972: 1.7 -> -1.51982: 1.8 -> -0.61987: 1.5 -> -1.41994: 1.0 -> -0.71997: 2.3 -> -1.52002: 1.3 -> 0.22015: 1.9 -> -1.12023: 1.1 -> -0.8