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GaWx

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  1. GaWx
    For the first run in many days, the UKMET (12Z) has no Atlantic basin TC.
  2. GaWx
    In the 1980s soon after obtaining my first job in my field of study, my first big purchase was for a washer/dryer. I was so excited. But I was even more excited with my 2nd buy, an even bigger one: what my friends called a “weather machine”. This “machine” was a combo of the following: a pretty high end short wave radio to get radio facsimile sounds, an Epson dot matrix B/W printer, and a radio facsimile decoder that was sent to me from England. This was a dream come true. The output wasn’t that good as weak or interfered signals were common, but this was the only way I could get my own feed of wx data!
  3. GaWx
    Vigorous but respectful discussion/debate about the relevant subject makes for the best threads. Echo chambers are boring. It’s beneficial to respectfully debate alternative viewpoints. Intense debates relying on factual evidence, critical thinking, and sound reasoning instead of emotional appeals or personal attacks are the most desirable. Also, being open-minded to change one’s views is beneficial to these threads. Posters displaying intellectual humility, reading others’ posts thoroughly, and being willing to update their views when presented with better evidence is desirable for quality threads. @bluewave Edit: Many of the worst threads at this BB were in the Politics forum because little of the above was the case in most threads. Hardly anyone was open minded about anything and personal attacks were common. Trolling was common. It was absolutely awful due to hardly any intelligent debate. Fortunately, this thread is far better!
  4. GaWx
    The relatively good news continues as regards the Arctic sea ice area:
  5. GaWx
    Down to 20% now: 1. Central Tropical Atlantic (AL92): A tropical wave located about 400 miles east of the Windward Islands is producing gusty winds and a large area of showers and thunderstorms. This system is moving into a region of increasing upper-level winds and dry air, and the potential of development continues to decrease. Even though development is unlikely, gusty winds and areas of heavy rain are possible across portions of the Lesser Antilles tonight and on Saturday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.
  6. GaWx
    0Z UKMET: ends up N of PR as a TD moving WNW:NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 108 HOURSFORECAST POSITION AT T+108 : 17.1N 56.8WLEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WINDVERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------1200UTC 18.08.2026 108 17.1N 56.8W 1013 240000UTC 19.08.2026 120 18.4N 58.3W 1014 251200UTC 19.08.2026 132 19.2N 60.4W 1014 260000UTC 20.08.2026 144 20.0N 62.1W 1015 271200UTC 20.08.2026 156 20.6N 64.3W 1015 280000UTC 21.08.2026 168 21.4N 67.0W 1014 28
  7. GaWx
    After an official airport high of an awful 97, I was on the road in the middle of a full-fledged severe thunderstorm in the SW SAV metro area along and near US-17 and GA 204 ~6-6:15PM. It was about the most ferocious storm I’ve experienced so far this summer with high winds, some of the worst CTG lightning I’ve seen this summer, and blinding torrential rain. It was a doozy with Ma Nature showing off her wild side. There were some fallen trees nearby per reports. When I got home it was raining heavily though nothing like what I saw earlier. My home also had a popup earlier. Total rainfall today was >1”, which was very nice to see!
  8. GaWx
    The Aug ‘23 Jamstec was actually slightly colder than the prior two months. But to be fair, Sep and moreso Oct were colder than the Aug run before Nov warmed back up to no BN. However, even the Oct 23 run, which a number of us including me were understandably salivating over, wasn’t nearly as cold as the current run (also note how much colder is the Arctic vs 23-4): Current run (Aug):
  9. GaWx
    Not only have the last 5 Jamstec runs had cold and the coldest on the globe on land in the E US for winter, the 2023-4 winter forecast made in August was much warmer with it NN (see below). Also, this NN DJF forecast made in August of 2023 had been the coldest DJF made by Jamstec in August back to when the current records go back to, which is August of 2017! So, the following for 23-24 and today’s for 26-7 are the two coldest August runs for DJF: @bluewave
  10. GaWx
    The cold dominating a large portion of the E US and it being the coldest land area on the entire globe goes all the way back to the first Jamstec run with DJF, April! April: May: June: July: Aug:
  11. GaWx
    I wonder how cold Feb, alone, is in the E US. Also, I wonder if any individual winter months are colder than the prior run. I bet this DJF avg is incorporating a relatively mild Dec compared to Jan and especially Feb, which would mean quite a cold Feb. Note that the E US is the coldest land area throughout the world, which is also the case on other models. In addition, Alaska and W Canada are quite warm, which typically teleconnect with a cold E US.
  12. GaWx
    The E MDR AOI is now Invest 94L.
  13. GaWx
    C Joe Bastardi calls them “ham sandwiches” . Well, Cristobal is the latest ham sandwich.
  14. GaWx
    There’s a decent chance for a record breaking long phase 6 this month. It started in phase 6 on Aug. 3rd: The latest GEFS, one of the more reliable for the MJO in the WPAC, has phase 6 through the entire run, Aug 26th, except it has it on the border of phase 5 Aug 18-20th: The EPS has it in phase 6 through 8/23: These are the longest phase 6 periods on record (back to late 1974): 6/13-30/1984 18 days 7/28-8/18/1984 22 10/6-20/1988 15 7/15-8/4/1996 21 2/25-3/10/1997 14 11/16-12/1/1998 16 7/19-8/1/2018 14 10/13-31/2022 19 1/5-21/2026 17 So, the longest phase 6 is currently the 22 days of late July-Aug of 1984 with the 2nd longest of 21 days mid July-early Aug 1996 (both near same time of year). The GEFS is suggesting the current one could reach 24+ days while the EPS has it ending up at 21 days.
  15. GaWx
    Initial WxBell Nov ‘26- Mar ‘27 forecast looks very reasonable although I’d like to see the month to month so as to see the expected large variability from early to late as I’ve just been posting about although they did say this: The bottom line is the colder part of the winter is expected to be later, rather than in December. Temps: Snowfall:
  16. GaWx
    The TW following 92L is also making some noise on the models and is now a lemon although the 0Z UKMET has it just as a TW moving similarly to 92L into the E Caribbean: 8AM TWO: Now up to 20/30:3. Eastern Tropical Atlantic:A tropical wave just offshore of the coast of west Africa is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are forecast to be generally conducive for some development of this system during the next several days while it moves westward or west-northwestward across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic.* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.
  17. GaWx
    Thank you for adding Feb of 1995 and especially 2007 to the list. Indeed, two more cold Febs and they both had warm Decs! So, the idea continues to be that a warm Dec, which is expected especially up north and especially what @snowman19has emphasized and which El Niño climo favors, has little to no bearing on how cold Feb could be. That imho tells me the best way to look toward this winter, looking at its prospects month to month. Models and analogs are emphasizing the prospect for a big range from warm start to cold end.
  18. GaWx
    Invest 92L: 0Z UKMET: only makes it to TD status for the first time in many runs:NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 24 HOURSFORECAST POSITION AT T+ 24 : 10.6N 40.2WLEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WINDVERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------0000UTC 13.08.2026 24 10.6N 40.2W 1011 231200UTC 13.08.2026 36 11.4N 42.5W 1012 270000UTC 14.08.2026 48 11.5N 46.5W 1012 301200UTC 14.08.2026 60 12.5N 49.9W 1013 280000UTC 15.08.2026 72 13.6N 54.3W 1012 301200UTC 15.08.2026 84 14.2N 58.8W 1012 290000UTC 16.08.2026 96 CEASED TRACKING
  19. GaWx
    Central Tropical Atlantic (AL92): Showers and thunderstorms are showing some signs of organization in association with a tropical wave located around 700 miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for development during the next few days, and a tropical depression will likely form within a couple of days while the system moves westward to west-northwestward across the central tropical Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.
  20. GaWx
    Here’s the mean of the 9 Decembers preceding these very cold Nino Febs: like night and day! Look familiar?
  21. GaWx
    It is usually either a 3 month or a 1 month avg.
  22. GaWx
    Thanks, Chuck. The quite cold E US Nino Febs I’m aware of are 2015, 2010, 2003, 1980, 1978, 1958, 1914, 1912, 1905, 1889, and 1885.
  23. GaWx
    It’s very likely overdone, which is why I say it is more like a dream. But IF it were to actually have an inkling of what’s to come, we could be in store for an exciting or possibly even fab Feb. It is essentially going for another Feb of 1958, one of the greatest Febs on record in the E US and this with Feb RONI way up at +1.84! The CFS RONI prog for Feb ‘27 is for a rapid collapse down to +1.5. So, is it likely? No. But is it doable? Yes.
  24. GaWx
    Due to the extreme cold anomalies progged by the CFSv2, look how cold the progged CFSv2 March ‘27 SST anomalies are off the E coast and in the N Gulf! Some areas are -5C/-9F even vs the slightly colder 1984-2009 climo!
  25. GaWx
    These amazing maps are so much fun to look at and dream about:
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