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GaWx

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  1. GaWx
    Thanks. But this graph has avg for entire summer well over 0C? This is far warmer than what Chris Martz was suggesting about the site of the collapse (i.e., only occasionally reaching to barely above freezing), isn’t it?
  2. GaWx
    Thanks, Don. Does that big a difference in temps for just 160 km away and 164 meters/538 feet elevation jibe with what you’d expect? Dry adiabatic rate is 3C/5.4F per 1000 feet, correct? So, on 2nd thought, maybe?
  3. GaWx
    Although this 12Z 9/5/26 CFSv2 ens. AAM fcast is THE highest I’ve seen for the entire 35 day period, I realize that it has a + bias, especially the further out in the forecast period. I still haven’t seen anything forecasted at 4+ to verify even closely and even many of the 3+ forecast days have been overdone. This has 4+ for all 4 members by day 11 (Sept 15th), which along with the 0Z 9/5/26 forecast is at the earliest I’ve ever seen that high. It has 3+ starting on Sep. 8th. But as I alluded to, many runs had 3+ for all of mid to late Aug and all of Sept and few, if any, days actually hit 3+ since mid Aug. It even dipped briefly to just below +2 in late Aug! In this case, I expect it will reach 3+ within a few days based on how steep it has it rising now. But regarding it hitting 4+ Sep. 15th or even after, I’ll believe it when I see it!
  4. GaWx
    I’m admittedly confused. Are we looking at the temp. data for the same place? Per my post from 3 days ago: “Highest and lowest recorded temperatures at Everest Base Camp (EBC) depend on which camp and which dataset, but reliable observations come from automatic weather stations (AWS) installed at the South Base Camp (Nepal side, ~5,364 m) and other nearby high-altitude stations. Summary of best-available values (observations and published AWS records, through May 2024): Highest recorded air temperature South (Nepal) Base Camp AWS: about −1.0 °C to +1.0 °C on the warmest days in late spring/early summer (typically May). Many published station summaries and expedition logs report peak values near 0 °C; a commonly cited peak is ~+0.5 °C. Slightly warmer spot measurements in sunlight or lower-elevation tent sites can exceed +1 °C briefly, but sustained, instrumented air-temperature peaks at the official South Base Camp are around 0 °C to +1 °C. @donsutherland1@Typhoon Tip
  5. GaWx
    Lol!
  6. GaWx
    Clemson at LSU originally had a 6:30PM CDT scheduled kickoff. But due to a lightning delay/heavy thunderstorms, they’re not kicking off til 8:40PM CDT! This supposedly would be the latest start in LSU history! I read that Lane Kiffin does not have either of the former pros on its roster for tonight. He’s worried due to a lawsuit by the SEC against LSU. The concern is that LSU would possibly have to forfeit any games with them on the roster. There’s also the worry about eventually being thrown out of the SEC although that’s very highly unlikely.
  7. GaWx
    The worst E US Sept heatwave on record was during El Niño (1925).
  8. GaWx
    Here are the relevant SLP maps for JFM NAO: JFM ’24: strong -NAO JFM ‘27: even stronger -NAO, which jibes with your comparison of JFM ‘24 to JFM ‘27. However, note that there are stronger SLP contrasts worldwide in ‘27 vs ‘24 and not just in the NAO region. Note that in ‘24, only ~1% has +2+ mb vs ~~10% in ‘27. Similarly, the % with -2- mb is sig. higher in ‘27 vs ‘24. Not sure what to make of that.
  9. GaWx
    I’ll add that the globe is warmer over last 3 years helping to add to the huge increase in >+40m anomalies.
  10. GaWx
    H5 comparisons Euro Sep fcasts for JFM ‘27 vs ‘24: larger contrasts worldwide/E US! ‘24: very little >40m (<5% of the globe) and no <-40m ‘27: much more >40m (~1/2 the globe) and sig. more <-40m (3 areas vs none in ‘24)
  11. GaWx
    H5 comparisons Euro Sep fcasts for JFM ‘27 vs ‘24: larger contrasts worldwide/E US! ‘24: very little >40m (<5% of the globe) and no <-40m ‘27: much more >40m (~1/2 the globe) and sig. more <-40m (3 areas vs none in ‘24)
  12. GaWx
    Comparison of Sept ‘23 Euro for DJF 23-4 and Sept ‘26 for DJF 26-7: ~twice the contrast N to S ‘26-7 vs ‘23-4 in E US ’23: ‘26:
  13. GaWx
    Comparison of Sept ‘23 Euro for DJF 23-4 and Sept ‘26 for DJF 26-7: ~twice the contrast N to S ‘26-7 vs ‘23-4 in E US ’23: ‘26:
  14. GaWx
    Will, thanks for posting. Unfortunately, WB CFS temp. maps have major algo flaws and thus I rarely post them. Example: they usually have a major cold spot over S Lake Michigan and a major warm spot over N L. Mich & vicinity just 250 miles to the N! Also, they tend to have too much contrast between well inland areas of the E 1/2 of the US (too cold) and the much warmer near E coast (often too warm). Related to this, WB shows at/near record cold Feb/Mar of -5 to -7C (and even vs the colder 1981-2010 climo!) in those areas with the 3rd-6th shades of green based on the means of 30 days of runs. The CFSv2 site shows nothing of the sort: examples for Feb: 1) Columbus, GA, in Feb is ~-3.5C vs 1991-2020 for the avg of the 3 maps below from the CFSv2 site, itself, whereas WB has them ~-5C vs the colder 1981-2010 or ~2C/3.6F too cold (1991-2020 is 0.5C warmer than 1981-2010). 2) At the same time, the NC/VA border on E coast in Feb is ~-1.5C vs 1991-2020 on CFSv2 compared to NN on WB vs the colder 1981-2010 meaning WB is ~1C too warm 8/6-15: 8/16-25: 8/26-9/4:
  15. GaWx
    1. My post started with “Consistent with OISST, the August relative ERSST anomaly for Nino 3.4 just came out”. Thus it should be understood by anyone following along that the entire post is talking about “relative” anomalies. 2. My entire post is addressing anomalies, not absolutes. You’re using an absolute in your example. 3. Relative anomalies are now official for NOAA and BoM at the least. 4. The outdated traditional way of determining anomalies is currently inflated ~0.5C due to GW. 4. August of 2026 was very warm, but it wasn’t the warmest relative 3.4 anomaly on record as Aug of 1997 was 0.18 warmer. 5. The main point of my post is that the models had way too rapid warming in 3.4 from July to August. The relative anomaly in 3.4 warmed only 0.34C per ERSST, which prevented a record high relative 3.4 anomaly for Aug. like had been progged.
  16. GaWx
    Nino 1+2 (keep in mind that this is non-relative) had a strong rise yesterday. Get ready for a tweet from Adam, Abraham, and/or others addressing this saying record breaking yada yada yada. Keep in mind though that records from 1982-3 and 1997-8 are based on weeklies, not dailies. Also, highest relative WEEKLY in 1983 was +4.6 and in 1997 was +4.1. Let’s see where the current calendar week relative 1+2 on Monday. It won’t be anywhere near +4.6 although it may get close to +4.0.
  17. GaWx
    Consistent with OISST, the August relative ERSST anomaly for Nino 3.4 just came out and it also shows a rather mundane warming in August vs July compared to the near record breaking rapid warming of ~1C that several models had been showing. The Nino 3.4 anomaly warmed by only 0.34: 2026 6 1.07 2026 7 1.33 2026 8 1.67 It had been earlier progged to be >+2 for August. For example, check out this June 13-22 mean CFSv2 prog for August: +2.3, which was notably above what verified: How does August of ‘26 compare to other very warm Nino Augusts since 1950? It’s very warm but still wasn’t the warmest as 1997 was 0.18 warmer. Had it warmed to +2+ like had been progged, August would have easily been the warmest on record: 2026 +1.67 2015 +1.58 1997 +1.85 1987 +1.27 1982 +0.93 1972 +1.47 1965 +1.57 1957 +1.36 https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/Rnino34.ascii.txt
  18. GaWx
    CFSv2 progs for relative Nino 3.4 trimonthly peak continue to cool significantly as the overall flatness of Nino 3.4 still persists (much longer than earlier progged on the models for 3.4): Mean of runs Aug 4-13: OND +3.5 (when the progged peak was at a peak) Mean of runs Aug 14-23: OND back down to +3.25 Mean of runs Aug 24-Sep 2: OND down even further to +3.1! It hasn’t been this low since the 10 day means of late June:
  19. GaWx
    The updated monthly Euro seasonal forecast as of Sept 1st is due to be released tomorrow.
  20. GaWx
    There was lightning delay/heavy thunderstorm at GT for their game vs Prime Time’s CO Buffaloes. But the storm is already moving out rapidly to the W. Go Jackets!
  21. GaWx
    Thanks to forky, Adam @snowman19 is back!
  22. GaWx
    Oops, I forgot to break down by months. I think Dec/Feb will have the best chance to have the warmest/coldest anomalies among DJF, which is consistent with strong Nino analogs and model consensus for the E US. In the SE when we’ve had 1-2 big winter storms, they’ve tended to be mainly between the 2nd half of Jan and March. A major exception was the SE major winter storm of early Dec of 1896! So, of course, one never knows. @Newman
  23. GaWx
    I agree he’s a major blowhard and not a nice person, and he’s been dead wrong on several things (including claiming “Heat Dome” is a recent term used primarily by alarmists and first claiming this disaster was caused by an earthquake). However, I don’t think it’s a waste of time to post his stuff as especially Don and I have done the last few months. Because he’s been widely read/quoted in recent months, he often shows data to support his posts (whether misleading or not), and is smart/well spoken/pretty clear communicator, I think his posts should be addressed here whether in disagreement or not. A person like him who many here including myself have strongly disagreed with at least some of the time is the perfect person to bring into the forum to make for robust discussion and the debating of differing viewpoints. To avoid people with very different views tends to make forums like this and others closer to an echo chamber. The most interesting forums aren’t afraid to consider major differences of opinion and debate them. Also, it’s good to be open-minded as I feel I am on most topics. On this topic, I’m very open-minded.
  24. GaWx
    Hello Newman, For this winter, I’m thinking (none of this should be surprising based on super Nino analogs/models): -above normal precip (up to 3” above) within a couple hundred miles of the NE coast with highest anomalies near the coast and closer to normal well inland -above to MA normal precip SE with the largest anomalies in the deep SE/FL, where 4-8” will be common -anomalies tending to get colder as one goes further SE -New England/NE US likely to average 3-5F warmer than normal with warmest in N New England -Mid-Atlantic will likely average ~1-3F warmer than normal with closest to normal near coast -SE likely averaging near normal to slightly colder than normal with coldest anomalies deep SE/FL -Regarding wintry precip overall, the SE tends to do best anomalywise in moderate or stronger El Niño winters. But even so, much of the SE, especially deep, is unforecastable since it takes only 1-2 winter storms (often just 1) to make it a very wintry winter there. But that chance tends to be best with El Niño winters vs other winters averaged out. Strong+ Nino winters have tended to have the best chance though moderate may be close.
  25. GaWx
    Indeed, it has become more E based despite a flat Nino 3.4 recently since Nino 3 has warmed some while Nino 4 has cooled some netting out to an essentially flat period for Nino 3.4.
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