GaWx

Regarding the AEW progged to come off Africa 8/24-5, the 12Z GFS/Euro AI are weak, especially Euro, and have it go in or near the Leewards Aug 31st. The reg. Euro has had this as a TC since way back on the 12Z 8/15 run. The 12Z Euro has it, but early on it is the weakest run for it well out in the MDR since 0Z 8/17 run. Keep in mind, however, that weaker could ultimately prove more dangerous for the W basin nearby land areas as strong runs have mostly been recurving safely as regards the Conus. Note that late in the run it is pretty far W (73W) and actually strengthens into a MH as it recurves not too far from the E coast. The model consensus has this moving at 20+ mph WNW in the MDR to the SSW of a strong E ATL high. That may be a reason models are keeping this rather weak out in that area. This is still not on the TWO. But they may change soon.

It looks like there are now two super Nino banter threads. Can these be merged?

KSAV highs last 4 days: 99, 99, 99, 100. Glad I’ve been away from there the last couple of days!

^1) The 12Z UKMET still has the TS in the subtropical region. 2) The 12Z UKMET still has a TS in the MDR moving rapidly WNW (22-25 mph) after TCG early next week:NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 90 HOURSFORECAST POSITION AT T+ 90 : 11.7N 21.1WLEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WINDVERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------1200UTC 25.08.2026 96 12.2N 22.3W 1008 310000UTC 26.08.2026 108 12.9N 25.9W 1009 291200UTC 26.08.2026 120 12.8N 29.9W 1007 310000UTC 27.08.2026 132 12.9N 34.3W 1005 361200UTC 27.08.2026 144 12.8N 38.5W 1002 370000UTC 28.08.2026 156 13.4N 42.5W 1003 371200UTC 28.08.2026 168 14.5N 47.1W 1006 39

The 10 day/40 run CFSv2 mean for Feb has gone from this near coldest on record of CFSv2 forecasts from SE to C Plains and cold overall much of US (Aug 7-16 runs): To this just 4 days later (Aug 11-20 runs): still cold esp SE to S Plains but not nearly as cold there with 2-5F BN instead of 5-8F BN and also not as cold most other areas of the C to E US: I figured that because I posted the extremely cold maps that I need to post those not as cold in the spirit of objectivity as opposed to just posting the runs I like the most. I’ll continue to follow because it’s fun/interesting even though the CFSv2 forecast value is quite limited for 6 months out (more for entertainment).

The SE drought would be largely history should this realistic wetness (based on analogs) verify well.

0Z UKMET has 2 ATL TSs: -it has a TS form in the MDR early next week that then moves WNW: NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 102 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+102 : 12.4N 20.3W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 25.08.2026 108 12.9N 22.2W 1007 30 0000UTC 26.08.2026 120 13.7N 26.0W 1008 33 1200UTC 26.08.2026 132 13.1N 30.9W 1003 37 0000UTC 27.08.2026 144 12.8N 34.7W 1002 36 1200UTC 27.08.2026 156 13.0N 38.3W 1002 36 0000UTC 28.08.2026 168 14.0N 42.6W 1005 38 ———— -It has a TS form in the subtropical region: 0Z UKMET NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 54 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 54 : 29.9N 58.5W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 23.08.2026 60 30.4N 59.0W 1015 25 0000UTC 24.08.2026 72 31.2N 59.5W 1015 28 1200UTC 24.08.2026 84 32.6N 60.2W 1013 33 0000UTC 25.08.2026 96 34.9N 59.6W 1012 30 1200UTC 25.08.2026 108 37.7N 58.5W 1007 36 0000UTC 26.08.2026 120 41.7N 55.6W 1003 44 1200UTC 26.08.2026 132 46.8N 50.7W 1000 43 0000UTC 27.08.2026 144 51.0N 42.4W 999 40 1200UTC 27.08.2026 156 53.5N 34.1W 996 33 0000UTC 28.08.2026 168 POST-TROPICAL

Today, I drove S to the fabulous Red Rocks Park/Ampitheatre and spent 2 hours there, another place almost beyond description. It was ~87 there and sunny/low RH. Next I went to Golden, which had similar wx to walk along Washington Ave and then Clear Creek watching the tubers/bathers enjoying the cold water. I ate at a delish W themed pizza joint. Late this afternoon I took I-70 through the Eisenhower Tunnel, where it dropped to 65, to Vail, where it was ~69 when I arrived. Their high was 89, 10 AN. Vail is under extreme drought conditions. Edit: early afternoon: today is looking similarly well AN in Vail and vicinity.

The average 3.4 SSTa adjusted for GW has leaned significantly toward La Niña the last 20 years with an avg anomaly of -0.3C.

1. Yes 2. I went from the beautiful Estes Park to Rock Cut (where I walked a bit) and then turned around. On the way back at Forest Canyon, I walked the entire paved path and checked out all of the amazing views. I also stopped at most of the pullovers on each side going and coming back. On the way down, I walked a short dirt path to a beautiful meadow with a tiny stream surrounded by wildflowers. Very peaceful with nobody nearby! (I can’t post because pics are way too large for the attachment limits here.) I spent a total of ~3 hours inside the park. 2. Thanks! Next time I may try Old Fall River Road. How does it compare to TRR safety wise? Even though I loved driving TRR and was very careful, I admit slight feelings of danger on the many parts with a steep drop right off the edge! @mayjawintastawm

I’ve been enjoying seeing and experiencing some monsoon convection since I arrived in CO. Saw some good ones on the way to and inside the awesome Rocky Mtn State Park. Trail Ridge Road is so spectacular that it’s almost beyond words. It went from 80s in Boulder to as cold as 53 at 11,500-12,000 feet up! It was cold enough there for a light jacket, especially when considering the steady winds up there.

The Arctic sea ice area has fallen back to near the 2013-24 mean: Perhaps this is partially related to the temps at 80+N finally rising to NN recently:

The latest few CFSv2 4 day means have reduced the Feb cold in the SE substantially: Compare that to how cold it was on the 4 day mean just 2.5 days prior:

If Lala were to get a new name, maybe it will be Tinky Winky, Dipsy, or Po.

Joe Bastardi brings something up that I think merits further study. The contrast in temps between the tropics and Arctic has dropped significantly since 1999 because the Arctic has warmed ~2C while the tropics have warmed significantly less. GW has been most concentrated in the Arctic. “A reduced equator-to-pole temperature gradient lowers zonal available potential energy (ZAPE) and surface baroclinicity. Baroclinic instability is the primary energy source for extratropical cyclones (the large-scale mid-latitude storms that form along the jet stream and frontal zones). With less available energy to draw from: Models (including coordinated experiments focused on Arctic sea-ice loss and amplification) generally show fewer individual cyclones each season across the northern mid-latitudes and Arctic. The remaining storms tend to be, on average, somewhat weaker, slower-moving, and longer-lived.” Individual events can still be intense or produce more extreme rainfall because of thermodynamic changes. Because of the distortion of warming, it leads to some things opposite of what is portrayed in the general sense. Your point is that this differential warming can produce effects that run counter to the simple ‘warmer world = more of everything extreme’ narrative, especially for baroclinic storm frequency and intensity. The thought experiment cleanly highlights how the pattern of warming, not just global-mean temperature, controls the dynamical response.”

Flying today for the first time in over a decade! Especially because I haven’t flown in so long, flying is still fascinating to me and I’m always at a window looking out! On way to CO, 1st stop is in Detroit, my first time in Michigan. The views of W Lake Erie, my first time seeing Erie, were awesome. Noting the fair wx cumulus over land areas due to heating in the early afternoon while mainly clear over the cooler lake: @roardog@michsnowfreak

Latest 10 day/40 run CFSv2 mean for Feb:

I just started getting decent thunderstorm rains ~7PM. This month so far has been quite beneficial for the lawns and may allow me to keep the sprinklers off the rest of the month! Edit: My total today was ~0.1”.

Thanks, Mitch. It has risen >1 in just 14 days!

CFSv2 10 day run mean is still not backing off of a cold Feb in a large portion of the US, especially corridor from SE US to C Plains where most areas are a whopping 5-7.5F BN though I’d prefer Alaska and NW Canada be AN: Compare this to the same for Feb of 2024 from about the same 10 day mean in Aug of 2023:

Per the following reliable and objective source, year 2026 as of week 32 has had the lowest area burnt in North America since 2012 by a good margin vs other years as of the same week (by a third). Also, globally it has been by a large margin the lowest for this point in the year since 2012 as I’ve been posting despite being near the warmest globally along with 2025 being 2nd lowest. My point in posting about 2026 for N.A. and 2026/5 globally is not to say CC is causing a decrease in wildfire activity because I’m not saying that. Instead, my point in posting this is to show that that there isn’t a proven simple relationship between CC and wildfire related activity and that different kinds of wildfire related data from various sources from various periods can be presented in various ways:

Our warmest since 1980: 16-7 (Niña) 22-3 (Nina) 19-20 (WN) 18-19 (Nino) 15-16 (Nino) 21-2 (Nina) 12-13 (CN) 11-12 (Nina)

Week 32 worldwide YTD cumulative burnt area by wildfires: 2026 is still by a good margin lowest of comparable weeks of 2012-26:

Naming a TC after a teletubby?

That’s where the great and long SOI monthly records can be useful. There’s a good -correlation between SOI and 3.4 SSTa. SOI goes way back to 1876.