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GaWx

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  1. GaWx
    What’s weird is that NOAA July PDO of -1.29 isn’t as negative as NOAA June of -1.32 despite the big plunge on WCS in July!!
  2. GaWx
    I just saw -1.29 rather than -2.03 for NOAA July 2026 PDO here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/ersst/v5/v6/index/ersst.v6.pdo.dat That’s almost exactly what the WCS dailies in July average at. The vast majority of the time NOAA has been significantly more negative like had been the case since Feb.
  3. GaWx
    A second straight day with a dousing on the way? It just started at 12:30PM and is picking up in intensity as radar confirms.
  4. GaWx
    From that same pro-met, the strong support for a solid La Niña by next fall is there. This is just for ASO: If you look at RONI values that exceeded 1.0 in ASO, the higher end events almost always resulted in La Nina by the next year's ASO:1957: 1.2 -> 0.21963: 1.0 -> -0.61965: 1.9 -> 0.01972: 1.7 -> -1.51982: 1.8 -> -0.61987: 1.5 -> -1.41994: 1.0 -> -0.71997: 2.3 -> -1.52002: 1.3 -> 0.22015: 1.9 -> -1.12023: 1.1 -> -0.8
  5. GaWx
    But why are they subtracting so much for the RONI deduction? It was only 0.44 for June ONI minus RONI. A sudden sharp increase from 0.44 to 0.8 is inconsistent with the size of month to month changes of the difference in the past.
  6. GaWx
    Hot off the press posted by a pro-met! “It does seem strange/off, comparing the CRW and OISST products on cyclonicwx doesn't show that discrepancy.” He then copied this from a NOAA website: “In the afternoon on Aug. 3rd, the ERSSTv5 will switch to ERSSTv6 because NCEI is discontinuing ERSSTv5. RONI values will change slightly. The weekly OISSTv2.1 data will remain unaffected.”
  7. GaWx
    Here’s still another amazingly strong CFS AAM run (about as strong as any overall), the 0Z August 3rd run (I’ve seen/posted 4 amazing runs in a row). Check out the complete agreement of members exceeding a very strong amp of 3 on Aug 13th/day 11 and an even stronger 3.5 on Aug 14th/day 12, as early as I’ve seen in any run! It being early is very important since these quickly become increasingly unreliable due largely to an increasing + bias once much past day 14. The key days for me to watch are in and near Aug 11-14 as of now: @snowman19
  8. GaWx
    Relative 3.4 (weekly) remains notably lower than what this OISST graph suggests: graph suggests it was ~1.9 last week and NOAA has it at only 1.5 22JUL2026 3.0 1.8 1.4 0.3 29JUL2026 3.2 2.1 1.5 0.2 https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/rel_wksst9120.txt @snowman19any comment on this big discrepancy? I could accept without questioning it 0.1 or perhaps even a 0.2 difference. But 0.4 makes no sense! The graph shows it hasn’t been 1.5 since 4 weeks ago.
  9. GaWx
    Brand new BoM remains full steam ahead to a record shattering RONI! This includes once again a record rapid rise within just one month (July to August). Also, it still doesn’t fall steeply after the peak totally unlike the V-shaped CFSv2 curve:
  10. GaWx
    I just found an up to date (July 29th) source of worldwide burnt acreage in 2026 vs 2012-25: I don’t want to minimize how terrible these fires are wherever they occur and also I realize there’s CC contribution to these though it’s pretty complex. However, it just so happens that the two lowest years of year to date burnt world acreage since 2012 as of week 30 (~July 29th) are none other than 2026 (lowest with 112 million ha) and 2025 (2nd lowest with 131). The remainder are way up at 162-216. The avg of 2012-25 is 193. Thus, 2026 is a whopping 81 million ha below the 2012-25 week 30 world avg! I’m guessing it’s probably caused largely by more favorable wx (some combo of wetter (like in S America) as well as fewer lightning strikes, lower temps, and/or lighter winds in dry areas), fewer arsonists, and/or better firefighting: @donsutherland1@WolfStock1
  11. GaWx
    The amazing runs keep coming! The 12Z 8/2/26 CFSv2 has the strongest AAM for forecast days ~12-23 that I’ve seen/saved! The mean hits 3 on day 12, 3.5 on day 16, and 4 on day 17 or 18! There are 3 of 4 members at 4+ on day 19 or 20 through day 22! Afterward, it isn’t quite as impressive as the last run and the far right isn’t as impressive as the last 2 although it’s still very impressive:@snowman19
  12. GaWx
    It appears per radar that I’m about to get clobbered with heavy rain. Rain started ~5:50PM. Edit: The heaviest rain fell mainly 5:50-6:20PM on Aug 2nd. The total was ~1.75”. Thus I get a break from having to water!
  13. GaWx
    12Z UKMET has no TC but it does have this vigorous TW on Thu evening moving NW and then NNW from there bringing convection into the NFL/GA/SC coast on Fri 8/7. I may have to watch this. Hopefully it ends up nothing more than this or a low end TS at the very worst:
  14. GaWx
    The latest WCS daily PDO has fallen to -2.19, which is the lowest since way back on 8/29/25! This plunge was not predicted AFAIK:
  15. GaWx
    This isn’t about measuring GW. This is about using the most appropriate 30 year period to determine what normals are. Due to GW, normals have increased a couple of degrees over the last few decades as you know. Thus, 1951-80 has been outdated for decades to use to determine normals, which are always changing.
  16. GaWx
    The longer range model consensus is suggesting the possibility of a very long MJO phase 6 streak later this month, the 2nd this year possibly reaching 14+ days, and with a likely max magnitude of 2+. Longest MJO ph. 6: # days; max mag 7/28-8/18/1984: 22; 2.5; 7/15-8/4/1996: 21; 2.0; 10/13-31/2022: 19; 2.2 6/13-30/1984: 18; 2.0; 1/5-21/2026: 17; 2.7 11/16-12/1/1998: 16; 2.5 10/6-20/1988: 15; 3.0 7/19-8/1/2018: 14; 2.5 2/25-3/10/1997: 14; 3.6
  17. GaWx
    Today’s SOI rose to ~-8, the highest in a month, from ~-22 yesterday due to a sharp increase in pressure at Tahiti. However, Tahiti has most likely about peaked and it will be falling back noticeably within the next few days. Meanwhile, Darwin’s pressure looks to be higher tomorrow than today. Thus, I’m expecting another -SOI tomorrow, which would make it 85 straight -SOI days vs the record back to 1991 of 100 (set in 1998). Darwin should peak tomorrow followed by a drop for 2-3 days. But with Tahiti’s concurrent fall during that period, I’m thinking the -SOI streak will likely continue for at least the next few days and likely make it to at least 90 days.
  18. GaWx
    I was wrong as the Darwin 1015+ mb streak is still going! It’s now up to 24 days and tomorrow looks to also be 1015+. That would make it 25 straight days vs the prior longest of 20 days from July of 2015.
  19. GaWx
    I strongly disagree. 1951-80 has not been relevant base climo for anomalies for a very long time. Normals are supposed to reflect the most up to date available climo. We’re obviously in a notably warmer climate than that of 1951-80. That earlier colder climate is no longer relevant for determining normals.
  20. GaWx
    I fully realize that the 30 year climo period available during 1997-8, just like at the time for any winter, always has to end prior to that winter for obvious reasons. There’s no choice. But once one gets further into the future, a more appropriate 30 year period to use as a basis for the analysis of anomalies for any winter is imho the 30 years most centered on that winter. Otherwise, in a warming climate using a 30 year period that’s prior to that winter is always going to bias that winter to look warmer than it really was vs the best centered 30 year climo. So, I strongly disagree with you on this and I’ll leave it at that. I don’t expect for you to agree with my thinking here. That’s fine as there’s nothing wrong with that. These are solid debates, which I enjoy, rather than them being arguments/throwing cheap shots.
  21. GaWx
    Chris, The following is a better way to look at how 1997-8 did: using the more appropriate/well centered climo base of 1981-2010 instead of 1961-90, which is earlier than 1997-8. Using the earlier, colder 1961-90 makes 1997-8 anomalies ~1F warmer than they actually were in many areas as you know vs the available best centered climo of 1981-2010: still mild in NE but not as mild and SE NN:
  22. GaWx
    I assume you’re referring specifically to the NE US as the first 3 winters weren’t warm in the SE. They were pretty close to normal there.
  23. GaWx
    Amazingly, the very next CFSv2 run of AAM (0Z on 8/2/26) is even more extreme overall than the posted prior run making it the most extreme I’ve ever seen although this one never quite gets all 4 at 4+ simultaneously (so the first week and last few days are only parts not more extreme): this one already has two at 4+ at day 20! @snowman19
  24. GaWx
    I know that the right sides of these are typically overdone and that’s nearly certainly the case here, of course. But the last 2 weeks of the 12Z 8/1/26 CFSv2 AAM prog is one for the books with the earliest 4+ amp. in a run from a member that I’ve ever seen (day 20) as well as the first run I’ve seen with more than two members at 4+ at the same time! This one has ALL 4 members at 4+ on the far right allowing them to actually have room to put the 4 member color key on the far right instead of on the far left like it always has been: @snowman19
  25. GaWx
    CFS is at warmest yet! Nov peak +3.75 vs record +2.69! Also, still has a record crazy rapid plunge Dec-Mar! OND peak +3.5 vs record +2.52!
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