GaWx

^More on this: The very strong Nino seasons of 1982 and 1877 only had 1 TC by Aug 26th. 1965 only had 2. And 2026 so far has been a sig. stronger Nino than these 3. @TheDreamTraveler

But not so crazy for a very strong Nino.

Here’s the last map of the 12Z UKMET showing the strengthening 96L moving WNW. Aside: I also see a very weak sfc low on those late maps moving W toward NE FL. It’s doing so due to W steering from an H5 594 dm high centered over the well inland SE. I wonder if that weak low is real:

The 12Z UKMET, unlike the 0Z, says it is, indeed, a duck as it does develop it and fast! It moved TCG back up 4.5 days back to about when yesterday’s 12Z run had TCG, this evening! Like many runs before the 0Z, it has rapid WNW movement in the MDR while keeping it (mainly) a TD and then strengthens it to TS Dolly about when it leaves the MDR and slows down and later passes just NE of the Bahamas: NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 12 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 12 : 13.8N 33.6W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 0000UTC 27.08.2026 12 13.8N 33.6W 1010 27 1200UTC 27.08.2026 24 13.6N 37.9W 1008 31 0000UTC 28.08.2026 36 13.8N 41.6W 1010 30 1200UTC 28.08.2026 48 14.4N 46.3W 1010 32 0000UTC 29.08.2026 60 15.0N 50.5W 1011 29 1200UTC 29.08.2026 72 16.4N 54.4W 1011 33 0000UTC 30.08.2026 84 17.5N 58.3W 1011 32 1200UTC 30.08.2026 96 18.6N 61.7W 1011 33 0000UTC 31.08.2026 108 19.5N 63.9W 1010 32 1200UTC 31.08.2026 120 20.5N 66.3W 1009 40 0000UTC 01.09.2026 132 21.6N 67.9W 1008 43 1200UTC 01.09.2026 144 22.3N 69.7W 1007 42 0000UTC 02.09.2026 156 23.2N 71.1W 1002 43 1200UTC 02.09.2026 168 24.5N 73.3W 999 42

I don’t know if it would matter for the NE US, but I don’t see evidence that a rapid collapse in itself would necessarily hurt.

It is quite wild that Dolly is the next named storm as has been said. It’s virtually impossible based on history and I realize we still could get her within a few days from Invest 96L, but what if the rest of the season were to be so amazingly quiet that we end up not even getting to Dolly?

Yes the CFS has been forecasting a rapid collapse starting as we go through especially the 2nd half of Dec. But it hadn’t earlier forecasted that most of August would be this flat.

There’s no evidence that this Nino won’t heat up more. I don’t think anyone said that here. If they did, I would have said they were wrong. I expect a resumption of solid warming shortly. But there’s plenty of evidence that it likely won’t heat up as much as the really wildly strong models have/had been showing because of the nearly flat most of August vs the model consensus having progged another sharp warning in Aug similar to July. They’ve been way off this month.

Early this evening here in the overall still very dry CO high country I saw this at a distance down the road I was taking a leisurely walk on, a first for me to see in the wild anywhere! The drought is so bad here that their natural food supply of berries, etc, is way below normal! This was surrealistic:

0Z UKMET delays transition to a TD for 4 days vs the 12Z run but still has it taking a similar path and gets to a TS quickly as it moves WNW a little NE of the Bahamas: NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 126 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+126 : 20.3N 67.4W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 31.08.2026 132 21.0N 68.5W 1011 32 0000UTC 01.09.2026 144 22.4N 70.3W 1009 38 1200UTC 01.09.2026 156 23.0N 71.7W 1006 43 0000UTC 02.09.2026 168 24.1N 73.4W 1002 39

I don’t recall ever hearing/reading even one bad word about Dolly. Never! How many public figures can you say that about in our lifetimes?

I’ve rarely if ever heard/read one bad word about Dolly. Never! How many public figures can you say that about? Yes, one part of her anatomy was often made fun of, but that seemed to be mainly in good fun even if sometimes coming off as rude and she seemed to take it well with great responses.

Today was the 2nd afternoon in a row that my home had a severe thunderstorm warning. The heaviest was mainly 5-6 PM. Per radar my place likely got a really good dousing, but I’m out of town. I’ll check Cocorahs and other things later to get an estimate on the rainfall.

Dolly Parton’s passing was just announced. May Dolly RiP.

Dolly Parton just passed away. May Dolly RIP.

The next named storm is Dolly. Dolly Parton’s passing was just announced.

Thanks for posting that excellent graph! Now 2026 is essentially neck and neck with 1997. RONI/ONI will almost start warming again and likely soon/at a good pace, but: -it has clearly fallen behind model consensus that had steady warming throughout this month rather than the net flatness/pause of the last 3 weeks -so when warming resumes, even if in earnest, it will be restarting from a lower point than previously progged by models

12Z UKMET: similar to 0Z run with TCG by tomorrow along with rapid WNW movement in MDR along with it barely reaching TS status before weakening back to a TD though this time it remains a TC and strengthens back to a TS late moving much more slowly WNW near SE Bahamas:NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 30 HOURSFORECAST POSITION AT T+ 30 : 13.0N 32.0WLEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WINDVERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------0000UTC 27.08.2026 36 13.0N 34.0W 1008 291200UTC 27.08.2026 48 13.2N 38.0W 1007 330000UTC 28.08.2026 60 13.8N 41.9W 1008 331200UTC 28.08.2026 72 14.6N 46.5W 1009 360000UTC 29.08.2026 84 15.6N 50.9W 1009 331200UTC 29.08.2026 96 16.9N 55.1W 1010 350000UTC 30.08.2026 108 17.8N 58.9W 1010 331200UTC 30.08.2026 120 19.0N 62.6W 1009 350000UTC 31.08.2026 132 19.6N 65.4W 1008 301200UTC 31.08.2026 144 20.5N 68.0W 1008 310000UTC 01.09.2026 156 21.3N 69.7W 1007 351200UTC 01.09.2026 168 22.2N 71.7W 1006 38

100% that’s the case per much slower August warming than models had indicated plus models are trending down likely in reaction to that. See post above. Check out the ground truth with the latest OISST RONI the last 3 weeks: flat! CDAS ONI: flat last 3 weeks!

Thanks. Wow, your reduction of RONI peak (tri) to +2.4 to +2.6 is a good bit below my latest RONI prog of ~+2.8 and is only slightly, if any, above the record of +2.4 from 1982-3! That would be way below some still current model progs of +3.3 to +3.5 for tri RONI! They’re likely going to bust way too high as it looks now. Your latest progged ONI tri peak of only +2.7 to +2.9 compares to some ONI tri peaks still near +4.0! Ray and all, check out the following large cooling adjustments on the CFSv2 for RONI monthlies: 7/22-31: Aug was +2.35 7/26-8/4: Aug fell to +1.9; Sep +3.0 8/5-14: Sep fell to +2.85; Oct +3.65; Nov +3.75 8/15-24: Sep fell even more to +2.5; Oct fell to +3.3; Nov fell to +3.5 The trend is clearly down.

0Z UKMET: doesn’t quite get it to Dolly strength but still has it as a TD although this run then weakens it while moving rapidly WNW in the MDR followed by a reformation 2 days later moving W much more slowly toward the SE Bahamas:NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 48 HOURSFORECAST POSITION AT T+ 48 : 12.4N 33.9WLEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WINDVERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------0000UTC 27.08.2026 48 12.4N 33.9W 1010 281200UTC 27.08.2026 60 13.0N 37.8W 1009 300000UTC 28.08.2026 72 13.2N 42.0W 1009 311200UTC 28.08.2026 84 14.1N 46.7W 1010 320000UTC 29.08.2026 96 CEASED TRACKINGNEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 150 HOURSFORECAST POSITION AT T+150 : 20.3N 67.0WLEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WINDVERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------1200UTC 31.08.2026 156 21.0N 68.4W 1010 340000UTC 01.09.2026 168 20.9N 70.6W 1009 32

Thanks for pointing this out, Mitch. Very interesting for sure! Check this excellent video from met. Travis Roberts just out a few hours ago. Within it, he talks about the initial flattening out (RONI, the top of your 2 graphs) that wasn’t there before, the same thing you pointed out! Also, check out how flat Aug has been on CDAS since the 5th! I mean that’s almost flat as a pancake type flat. Keep in mind that several models had forecasted a record breaking warming for just one month (for any month) of ~1C in August!

A severe thunderstorm went over my home ~3:10-25PM per radar. I’m out of town and thus couldn’t witness it. I think this is the first sig. rain there in a good while. Edit 8/25: Per Cocorahs and radar, I’m roughly estimating my home got 0.4” afternoon of 8/24.

^This is now Invest 96L and it’s up to 30%/60% in the TWO.

^For the same TW now emerging from Africa:12Z UKMET vs 0Z: similar rapid WNW track through MDR though 2-3 mb stronger starting near 50W. As it leaves MDR and slows down, it strengthens notably to mid-level TS at the end of the run while still moving WNW on heading in direction of SE Bahamas though still 300+ miles from there. Remains a significant SW outlier, which could be due to a SW bias that it sometimes exhibits with weak systems:NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 54 HOURSFORECAST POSITION AT T+ 54 : 11.6N 31.9WLEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WINDVERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------0000UTC 27.08.2026 60 12.1N 33.5W 1007 301200UTC 27.08.2026 72 12.3N 37.6W 1007 340000UTC 28.08.2026 84 13.2N 41.6W 1008 341200UTC 28.08.2026 96 14.0N 46.3W 1009 350000UTC 29.08.2026 108 14.9N 50.9W 1009 331200UTC 29.08.2026 120 16.5N 55.4W 1010 340000UTC 30.08.2026 132 17.5N 59.1W 1009 331200UTC 30.08.2026 144 18.9N 62.5W 1009 350000UTC 31.08.2026 156 19.6N 65.2W 1008 341200UTC 31.08.2026 168 20.2N 67.8W 1004 52