GaWx

Thanks, Don. I can tell that Chris Martz has been affecting JB recently. Until recently, I recall JB (like many other mets) used to mention “heat dome” regularly without a sarcastic tone. But this summer whenever he mentions it, he often does so with a sarcastic tone. He doesn’t go out of his way to say it isn’t appropriate. But he clearly sounds like he’s making fun of the term and isn’t as comfortable using it like in the past.

Thanks, Don. Just to clarify for the readers in general, in case there’s confusion since I posted about Region 1+2 just four posts above Don’s, the +4.2 C Don posted for 1+2 is based on the traditional anomaly using 30 year base climo. The +3.5 I posted is based on taking into account warming overall mean worldwide tropical ocean temperatures to determine its anomaly. This is essentially a Region 1+2 version of Region 3.4’s RONI (called “relative”), which NOAA has decided to make official even though they continue to also update the traditional versions: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/rel_wksst9120.txt

I went to Maroon Bells via Aspen on Saturday, where I got caught in a light rain shower. That was one amazing place with some of the best views I’ve ever seen! I took 80 mainly pics with a few videos. If you haven’t been, I very strongly recommend it. Has anyone here gone there? I started the day driving to Aspen that morning. I first took a free city bus from Aspen to the Aspen Highlands ski resort. Then I took a reserved shuttle from there to Maroon Bells. I arrived just before 11:30AM and got to the lake at 11:45. I figured that would still be early enough to miss the rain per what the Euro/GFS/UK/Icon/RRFS/NAM showed. They all suggested it wouldn’t rain til at least 2PM and more likely not til 3PM. But sure enough, it rapidly clouded up and it started raining at just after 1PM. Is it common for the models to be too late on the start of monsoon activity each day? Fortunately though, it remained light and there was no lightning. Luckily, the rain ended ~1:30. It never rained enough to make the trail slippery or muddy. As I was leaving ~2:30, it just started raining lightly again. @ValpoVike

12Z UKMET and other global probably are of little value due to how tiny system is. But fwiw and for the record: 12Z UKMET initializes this as a TD: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05L ANALYSED POSITION : 28.3N 91.0W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL052026 LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 31.08.2026 0 28.3N 91.0W 1013 20 0000UTC 01.09.2026 12 27.9N 92.2W 1012 19 1200UTC 01.09.2026 24 29.2N 93.5W 1012 20 0000UTC 02.09.2026 36 CEASED TRACKING

Don, your entire post 100% makes sense. Regardless, please post the August map if you get a chance. Even assuming one cooler than normal summer wouldn’t suddenly stabilize the glaciers, I want to see whether or not his supposed summer map is essentially a lie in itself. TIA. And on what the heck is he basing his statement that Nepal hasn’t warmed in 400 years?? Is this just made up out of thin air?

Thanks for elaborating. I see. But this begs the question: why is the ice sheet getting smaller in the first place? Isn’t that in itself due to GW?

Thanks, Don! -I agree with you about the lack of dates and other references on his map, which I mentioned to Charlie in my reply to him. That makes me wonder if he’s hiding something. -So, based on your June and July maps, June-July averaged near normal along the Nepal-Tibet border vs a 1991-2020 base, the warmest 30 year base. Taking that as well as the extreme heat of Aug 10-15 into account, it would seemingly have had to have been much colder than normal Aug 1-9 and Aug 16+ to possibly result in a cooler than normal summer. I have my doubts knowing who we’re dealing with here. -He also has nearly all of Tibet in blue colors. But your June/July maps averaged out appear to average warmer than normal over much of Tibet if I’m interpreting them correctly. Thus, August would have had to have been an overall cold month to have a chance to overcome the warmer than avg June-July.

Thanks. Please elaborate. I’m not sure I’m following what you’re asking.

Thanks, Charlie, for posing that. None of what you posted from that article surprises me. I’m not at all expecting to take JB’s side, especially because he’s a proud denier of AGW being a significant factor in GW. But what do you know about his statement that Nepal hasn’t warmed in 400 years? Did he just make this up? From where would he have gotten accurate data so far back? Also, does that map of his that I reposted supposedly showing a somewhat cooler than normal summer along the Nepal-Tibet border have any significance even if accurate? I noticed it has no legend and no reference like the base period and the period these blue colors are representing. He’s saying this is the “wrong summer” to claim a disaster was based on GW. But even if it truly was cooler than normal this summer there, would that even matter being that melting supposedly would have already been put in motion due to supposedly prior warmer than normal periods?

Of course it’s possible. I’d put odds at ~25% as of now. Based on the fact that none are shown on current models, this being progged to be the strongest Nino on record, and the modern analog 1997, which had its last TC become a H on Sept 4th, it’s a realistic possibility though still not anywhere near a likelihood this early in the season. That’s why I’m roughly estimating a 25% chance.

Today’s release for last week averaged out has a notable rise in 1+2: 19AUG2026 3.2 2.5 1.8 0.0 26AUG2026 3.5 2.6 1.8 0.1 To compare, here’s 1997: 27AUG1997 3.3 2.6 1.9 0.4 https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/rel_wksst9120.txt

I just watched Joe Bastardi’s free to the public Saturday Summary. He says the Nepal disaster has nothing to do with CC. Why? -He says that there has been no net change in temperature in Nepal in 400 years! -He shows a summer temp. anomaly map that has blue colors all over Tibet including the Tibet-Nepal border. So, I’d like to know whether or not these two things are true. Anyone know? @donsutherland1

The 0Z UKMET (as an TD) and CMC still have this recurving TC.

0Z: UKMET and CMC both dropped the return of Dolly.

Early afternoon in Vail I saw the strongest thunderstorm of my CO trip. It got so dark just before the start! I considered it to be severe with very strong winds at the start bringing down cold air into the 50s. The winds must have been 50++, which the aspens handled well. Soon after good drought helping heavy rain fell followed by lots of pea sized hail that lasted ~5 minutes. As a result of 3 periods of rain, it was in the 50s most of the afternoon! Sure beats GA summer heat and humidity! It’s down to 48 with rain and wind. Feels like what typical winter day would be in Savannah! This is why I like coming here in summer.

12z Euro: looks like a TD that comes ashore near LA/TX border midday Tue.

I’m talking about models that had avg for Aug minus avg for July ~1C. It’s looking more like just 0.5C.

12Z UKMET for 2nd full run in a row has a TC originating in the W MDR well out in the run. 0Z had a TD but 12Z has a strengthening mid-grade TS as it recurves well away from any landmass due to a notable upper trough per H5 maps: NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 120 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+120 : 15.8N 52.0W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 04.09.2026 120 15.8N 52.0W 1011 25 0000UTC 05.09.2026 132 16.9N 55.0W 1010 30 1200UTC 05.09.2026 144 17.8N 57.6W 1008 35 0000UTC 06.09.2026 156 19.3N 59.2W 1006 41 1200UTC 06.09.2026 168 20.8N 59.6W 1002 48

12Z UKMET doesn’t quite designate this as a TD but it does have 25 knot winds just offshore LA Mon night and landfall Tue AM near TX/LA border. Lowest SLP only gets down to 1011 mb fwiw.

12 UKMET: ex-Dolly becomes a TD right before it moves NW into FL NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 102 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+102 : 26.5N 78.7W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 0000UTC 04.09.2026 108 27.5N 79.5W 1008 29 1200UTC 04.09.2026 120 29.2N 81.3W 1008 31 0000UTC 05.09.2026 132 30.8N 83.2W 1008 24 1200UTC 05.09.2026 144 32.0N 85.4W 1009 19 0000UTC 06.09.2026 156 32.8N 87.3W 1008 18 1200UTC 06.09.2026 168 33.1N 87.9W 1008 20

August overall was a notable bust for Nino 3.4 as several models had had a steep anomaly warming of a record breaking ~1C from July to Aug whereas the last 4 weeks have overall been net ~flat meaning a warming from July to August of only ~0.5C. Thus, the progged Nov peaks have recently been dropping on the CFS:

0Z UKMET: H at 168 strengthening on a slow WNW move in Gulf NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 102 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+102 : 24.6N 78.6W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 03.09.2026 108 24.9N 79.9W 1008 30 0000UTC 04.09.2026 120 25.9N 82.1W 1005 33 1200UTC 04.09.2026 132 27.3N 84.2W 1001 38 0000UTC 05.09.2026 144 28.0N 86.2W 996 43 1200UTC 05.09.2026 156 28.4N 87.8W 989 61 0000UTC 06.09.2026 168 28.7N 88.9W 977 68

Chris, posted this last night: I suspect based on his post 2 nights earlier and the tone of this one that I largely won’t agree with the upcoming video, but let’s see what he says.

1. Based on Corcorahs and radar yesterday, I roughly estimate 0.1” fell at my home yesterday (8/27) thus bringing my location at 7.35” mtd through 8/27. 2. More rain has fallen and is still falling there today. I’ll have to roughly estimate later how much for 8/28. As of now the total for today I’m guessing 0.5” at the very least. Edit: my rough estimate for 8/28 at my home is 0.5” based largely on local TV radar estimates. That puts me at ~7.85” MTD.

I can’t post the maps because they’re too large for the space allowed here, but comparing today’s 12Z UKMET 120 hour map with the 168 hour map of the 12Z UK of 48 hours ago using Pivotal shows they’re very similar with regard to both with a somewhat healthy Dolly (1007 mb/well organized vs 999 mb on the run from 48 hours ago) recurving and the preliminary low back to being just a weak (1012ish) low that’s not designated a TC and headed toward NE FL.