GaWx

Technically according to this image, it was a H by 0Z on 10/8 in 1905 or 7PM EST on 10/7. So, that means 2026 was a little later if you go by this:

No, it’s the latest 1st H since 1851, inclusive. That’s the first year of these tracks at the NHC site.

Yeah although 1905 was about as late:

Tropical Storm watches well inland in AL/GA: This is for way up in C AL including Birmingham and Tuscaloosa: **TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL ALABAMA** * STORM INFORMATION: - ABOUT 710 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BIRMINGHAM AL OR ABOUT 640 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MONTGOMERY AL - 23.7N 90.2W - STORM INTENSITY 85 MPH - MOVEMENT EAST-NORTHEAST OR 60 DEGREES AT 10 MPH SITUATION OVERVIEW ------------------ HURRICANE ISAIAS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TOWARDS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST, MAKING LANDFALL FRIDAY EVENING. WINDS MAY GUST AS HIGH AS 40 TO 50 MPH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY, RESULTING IN THE POTENTIAL FOR NUMEROUS DOWNED TREES AND POWER LINES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 5 INCHES WILL RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING, ESPECIALLY IN URBAN AND OTHER POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. A THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES MAY DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA ALONG AND EAST OF THE TRACK ON SATURDAY, WITH THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 65. CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO MEDIUM AT THIS TIME.

Plenty. You can find them here: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/

Hurricane Isaias Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092026 1000 AM CDT Thu Oct 08 2026 ...ISAIAS STRONGER... ...PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM STORM SURGE AND DAMAGING WINDS IN THE WARNING AREA SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION TODAY... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.7N 90.2W ABOUT 170 MI...270 KM N OF PROGRESO MEXICO ABOUT 380 MI...610 KM S OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB...28.80 INCHES ———————— Hurricane Isaias Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092026 1000 AM CDT Thu Oct 08 2026 Isaias is strengthening in an environment of moderate vertical wind shear. Observations from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the central pressure continues to fall and the maximum winds are now near 75 kt. The center of the hurricane is near the southwestern side of a Central Dense Overcast feature, and some convective banding features are evident over the eastern portion of the circulation. Additional aircraft reconnaissance missions are scheduled for today, tonight, and Friday, so we will have close monitoring of the intensity of the system up until landfall. Center fixes from the Hurricane Hunters indicate that Isais continues on a generally east-northward track with an initial motion of about 060/9 kt. During the next 36 hours, the hurricane should gradually turn toward the northeast and north as it moves between a ridge extending from the Bahamas across the Florida Peninsula and a zonally-oriented mid-level trough near the northwestern Gulf coast. On the forecast track, the center of the hurricane is forecast to move across the east-central to northeastern Gulf coast in 36-42 hours. Thereafter, the weakening cyclone should move over the southeastern United States bringing strong winds well inland. The track guidance has not changed much for this advisory cycle and the official forecast is similar to that of the previous advisory. The intensity forecast up to landfall is somewhat challenging. On the one hand, the hurricane should move over waters of high oceanic heat content and within a fairly moist air mass through tomorrow. On the other hand, the SHIPS model input parameters show a significant increase in vertical wind shear, particularly when Isais nears the coast. Regarding, the shorter-term intensity forecast, a recent WSFM microwave satellite image at 37 GHz frequency shows a closed ring around the eye. This is typically a harbinger of rapid intensification. The 12-hour forecast does show a relatively large increase in strength, but in view of the expected stronger shear in 24-36 hours, some decrease in intensity is indicated as Isaias approaches the coast. Regardless, Isaias is expected to remain a dangerous hurricane through landfall, and gusty winds are expected well inland after landfall given the anticipated expansion of the wind field and accelerating forward speed of the storm. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/1500Z 23.7N 90.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 09/0000Z 24.9N 89.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 24H 09/1200Z 27.1N 87.9W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 10/0000Z 29.6N 87.4W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 10/1200Z 32.3N 87.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 60H 11/0000Z 34.6N 88.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 72H 11/1200Z 36.5N 87.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 96H 12/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch

So did forky, who has special privileges and staff powers for who knows what reason, just remove the Super El Nino banter thread that I posted a link to 30 minutes earlier? Or did he just remove my ability to view it? It all of the sudden now shows this when I view the link to the Banter thread that I provided in my prior post: Sorry, we can't show this content because you do not have permission to see it.

Beautiful! Did anyone of note predict this? At a minimum, the Arctic ice news isn’t all bad right now and that’s putting it mildly:

The link below is to the banter thread, which hasn’t had a post since Sept 28th while there have been dozens of near worthless banter posts clogging up this thread with poop since then making it harder for readers to find the much higher quality posts. How does that make sense?

12Z UKMET is at its strongest of any run so far at landfall with 979 mb at 12Z on Sat at AL/MS border. Then it heads N along the border followed by NNW/NW into MS. The center is in NW MS as of GA/AL gametime. Tornadoes look like a problem in much of N FL/AL/GA while heavy rain and strong winds hit N MS/Memphis area Sat afternoon/evening due to the tightest gradient in that area at that time. Interesting.

Thanks. So, what does all of this say in regard to the ECMWF’s forecasted weaker than avg SPV in Jan/Feb? Is that a legit signal of a likely weaker than normal SPV then?

Everything Daniel Swain says makes sense. ONI is essentially the sum of ENSO and GW, which is what I’ve been saying and is literally what he says here: “absolute (ONI) index, which includes climate warming signal…” If you want to measure the pure ENSO signal, itself, and compare that to the pure ENSO signal of past events, the recommendation is to use RONI as NOAA suggests in their official RONI table going back to 1950. I understand that warmer air holds more water vapor and thus allows for increased rainfall. Thus, ONI better measures increased absolute warmth/rainfall since it adds the GW component to the ENSO component.

Thanks. But with ERA5 not being a prognosis, why is its blue line going all of the way til 5/1/27?

Any comments about what this graph implies? Why is prog of ERA5 avg (blue) so much higher than prog of ECMWF mean (black)? Isn’t ERA5 produced by ECMWF? Is ERA5 its own projection model? Any explanation would be appreciated.

The CFS keeps missing too low and thus readjusting Nino 1+2 and Nino 3 higher while doing pretty much the opposite for 3.4 and 4 thus making it more and more E based from the already record E basedness.

This is the official RONI version of yours, which takes into account the amount of GW between Ninos (specifically as regards the warming of the global tropical SSTs) and thus gives a better comparison of Nino strength from Nino to Nino: 26 has been record warmest since early Aug and currently is 0.13 warmer than 97, 0.47 warmer than 82, .61 warmer than 15, and 1.47 warmer than 23: Here’s the new Euro RONI prog: 26-7 remains strongest, even warmer than the rapidly warming late peaking 82-3 although only barely warmer than 83 in Jan:

0Z Euro has landfall near Biloxi ~8AM CDT Sat at 986 mb.

The 0Z UKMET landfalls at Mobile at 987 mb ~4AM CDT Sat, which is weaker than its lowest SLP of 978 mb 12 hours earlier in the N Gulf. The center then moves N over W AL before turning left into EC MS and then NE MS. Beneficial rains fall over much of the SE.

That’s interesting that it dropped slightly. But it’s still a record high back to 1979 for AS. For all bimonthlies, the record high is 2.9 (AM of 1983).

Very nice ice!

12Z UKMET is strongest run yet with a H (65 knots/983 mb) hitting Biloxi followed by a move N into MS: NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 24 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 24 : 21.6N 93.7W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 07.10.2026 24 21.6N 93.7W 1005 29 0000UTC 08.10.2026 36 22.0N 93.2W 1003 28 1200UTC 08.10.2026 48 22.6N 92.4W 1000 35 0000UTC 09.10.2026 60 22.7N 90.9W 999 31 1200UTC 09.10.2026 72 24.6N 89.6W 995 41 0000UTC 10.10.2026 84 26.4N 89.2W 992 45 1200UTC 10.10.2026 96 29.2N 88.7W 983 65 0000UTC 11.10.2026 108 32.3N 90.0W 994 26 1200UTC 11.10.2026 120 33.4N 90.4W 1003 27 0000UTC 12.10.2026 132 CEASED TRACKING

I wonder if the GA/AL game in Tuscaloosa on Sat night (7:30PM EDT start) will be heavily impacted by the Gulf tropical cyclone forecasted to form soon. Any guesses?

Do you think that the GA/AL game in Tuscaloosa on Sat night (7:30PM EDT start) will be heavily impacted? Edit: NHC track takes it past Tuscaloosa early afternoon. That tells me that the game itself during the evening shouldn’t be affected too heavily.

0Z UKMET: landfall ~175 miles W of 12Z run with it near far SE LA and then MS. Strongest run yet with high end TS/990 mb: NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 54 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 54 : 22.2N 92.1W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 08.10.2026 60 22.7N 91.7W 1003 30 0000UTC 09.10.2026 72 22.9N 89.9W 1001 30 1200UTC 09.10.2026 84 25.4N 88.6W 999 39 0000UTC 10.10.2026 96 26.4N 88.5W 997 48 1200UTC 10.10.2026 108 29.2N 88.7W 990 58 0000UTC 11.10.2026 120 32.1N 89.5W 992 29 1200UTC 11.10.2026 132 33.8N 88.8W 1002 25 0000UTC 12.10.2026 144 38.4N 83.2W 1003 12 1200UTC 12.10.2026 156 CEASED TRACKING

Today’s Euro weekly for 10/5-11 is the final one: Look how much the cold signal for 10/5-11 in the E weakened overall over the last 10 days. However, the signal remained at about the same level in from the NE to down the coast NYC to Hatteras: Sep 25th run for 10/5-11: much stronger cold signal Week 2 (10/12-18) is warm. Just a few days ago it was cool. Other than week 1, the only other cool E weak is week three, 10/19-25: this week has been mainly coolish over the last week of runs: