GaWx

And the Euro, one of the warmest currently, does have a warm bias plus RONI is ~0.5 lower right now. In addition, Eric’s bold calls shouldn’t be mistaken for him necessarily being likely to be right as he’s had his share of busts.

Today’s MJO forecasts are suggesting it may back up into phase 7 in a portion of the rest of this month but otherwise be in phase 8. Those two phases have averaged the two coldest March post winter La Niña phases in Baltimore, which tells me it will be rather difficult for warmth to win out overall the rest of this month despite some of the days being warm in between cold periods: GEFS: EPS:

From summery low 90s in some areas just a few days ago back to winter now! It was down to 32 all of the way down to parts of N FL including Cross City, Crestview, and Pensacola! KSAV was 34. Look out tonight for areas that radiate decently to have even colder lows. Some of these areas have freeze warnings for tonight.

My bad. I misinterpreted the high wind report categories. Now I realize that there were none of 65 knots+ and there also were no large hail reports.

Are you saying that the front itself produced that many 65+ knot reports? If so, wow!

I have just read some very sad news. Roger Smith, who ran the annual hurricane season forecast contests in this forum at least going back to 2016, passed away on February 24th. He put a lot of thought into these contests as he came up with very carefully thought out scoring formulas and gave regular detailed updates on the standings as well as prospects under various scenarios. The large number of contestants is all one needs to know to realize how well run these were. May Roger rest in peace. https://www.clarksfuneral.ca/obituaries/Roger-James-Smith?obId=47411042

This is very sad to read. Roger also ran annual AmericanWx hurricane season forecast contests at least going back to 2016, which is how I best knew him. He put a lot of thought into these as he came up with very carefully thought out scoring formulas and gave regular detailed updates on the standings as well as prospects under various scenarios. May Roger rest in peace.

Here’s a tally as of 10:55PM EDT today: only 2 tornadoes and 1 large hail event! But there still were 258 high wind reports! So, it wasn’t exactly quiet:

I just took an enjoyable walk in 47F windy post cold frontal 34F dew-point Canadian air at a park. I love strong cold fronts! Trash bins and other things were blown over there from this wind. Looking forward to more walks in this great wx the rest of the week. Looking for a low in the mid 30s at KSAV followed by a mid 50s high tomorrow making for one of the coldest St. Patrick’s Day parades in a long time! Erin go Blarney!

I’m guessing that’s right ahead of the cold front, itself. And what a cold front! Second memorable one within a week. This one may not have as much contrast between airmasses, but it’s going to make it significantly colder and for longer than what came in after the prior one.

Moderate to strong El Niños also often have a lot to say about prevailing tracks and direction of movement. From what I’ve researched of Nino seasons, there’s a tendency for more of the MDR tracks to not go as far west in the basin vs non-Nino seasons. They tend to gain latitude more quickly and recurve further east. But these are just averages and it takes only one to make for a very bad season. In addition to increased shear, El Nino seasons may tend to be less moist in the tropics. Please pin this @buckeyefan1or other mod.

I don’t know what forum covers Birmingham, AL, but they got ~1”!! Is that insane?

Can you believe this? Birmingham measured ~1”!! That’s insane!

It’s sleeting all the way down to Peachtree City well south of Atlanta!

1. It will go dormant that fast? 2. It will turn green again, regardless, very soon.

Photo confirmation of sleet pellets falling on my sis’ deck just now! She’s not far from Emory area of NE ATL.

Our tornado watch just expired. We’re now getting a line of storms along the leading edge of rain with gusty winds. It looks kind of rough along the coast to my south though I don’t see any severe warnings yet. But this was issued at 1:59PM: 159 PM EDT MON MAR 16 2026 ..A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT LIBERTY...MCINTOSH BRYAN AND CHATHAM COUNTIES UNTIL 230 PM EDT... AT 159 PM EDT, DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER HARRIS NECK, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH. HAZARD...WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 MPH. SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. IMPACT...GUSTY WINDS COULD KNOCK DOWN TREE LIMBS AND BLOW AROUND UNSECURED OBJECTS. LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... DARIEN, COFFEE BLUFF, WINDSOR FOREST, MONTGOMERY, VERNONBURG, HARRIS NECK AND HALFMOON LANDING.

This map suggests the highest risk for tornadoes is in far E NC in the red area fwiw:

Yeah, bad NAO trends overall. But there’s still a short cold period showing up for ~3/28. So, though not likely, some NE big cities’ snow still can’t be ruled out for then.

Followup: even higher NAO in today’s forecast except the very end…so continuation of yesterday’s +NAO trend: Yesterday: Today: Edit: MJO still forecasted to be in 8 most of rest of March fwiw.

This is great news for most of the south. I’m happy and would much rather have a forecast bust than the really bad things happen and verify the forecast. I have loved ones in ATL and had debated whether or not to alert them. I chose not to so I wouldn’t cause unnecessary worry based partially on FFC not even saying “possibly severe” for ATL (this was issued at 2:27AM): REST OF TONIGHT SHOWERS WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE. NEAR STEADY TEMPERATURE IN THE LOWER 60S. SOUTH WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 90 PERCENT. MONDAY CLOUDY IN THE MORNING, THEN BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING. So, FFC didn’t bust at all. So, great news in all aspects for ATL. No bust by FFC and only two straight line TS wind damage reports for a downed tree. Regarding the crying wolf concern, forecasting these events is very difficult and I saw very little on either board the day before saying it wouldn’t verify. Regarding those that won’t take the threat seriously next time (relatively few imho), that’s their problem as forecasting these is way easier said than done and I’d prefer they be extra cautious.

I’m hopeful ATL can stay out of big trouble based largely on the lucky timing of the worst coming through in the very wee hours. @buckeyefan1Would you please pin this til the threat passes? TIA

MJO forecasted to be in phase 8 most of rest of March. On average during Marches that were post La Niña winter, phase 8 was the 2nd coldest to phase 7 in Baltimore meaning being warm in the Mid-Atlantic/NE for the period averaged out will not be favored (note that I’m not saying anything explicitly about snow here as it’s getting late for that, especially MidAtlantic): GEFS: EPS: @EastonSN+

Yesterday’s NAO fcast had clear majority of members going <0: Today’s NAO fcast: only ~50% go <0 AO comparisons are similar. What will the next few days show? This is pretty volatile.

-NAO trends for 3/23-29 have lead to BN signal NE: 4 days ago: Now: