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GaWx

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  1. GaWx
    Everything Daniel Swain says makes sense. ONI is essentially the sum of ENSO and GW, which is what I’ve been saying and is literally what he says here: “absolute (ONI) index, which includes climate warming signal…” If you want to measure the pure ENSO signal, itself, and compare that to the pure ENSO signal of past events, the recommendation is to use RONI as NOAA suggests in their official RONI table going back to 1950. I understand that warmer air holds more water vapor and thus allows for increased rainfall. Thus, ONI better measures increased absolute warmth/rainfall since it adds the GW component to the ENSO component.
  2. GaWx
    Thanks. But with ERA5 not being a prognosis, why is its blue line going all of the way til 5/1/27?
  3. GaWx
    Any comments about what this graph implies? Why is prog of ERA5 avg (blue) so much higher than prog of ECMWF mean (black)? Isn’t ERA5 produced by ECMWF? Is ERA5 its own projection model? Any explanation would be appreciated.
  4. GaWx
    The CFS keeps missing too low and thus readjusting Nino 1+2 and Nino 3 higher while doing pretty much the opposite for 3.4 and 4 thus making it more and more E based from the already record E basedness.
  5. GaWx
    This is the official RONI version of yours, which takes into account the amount of GW between Ninos (specifically as regards the warming of the global tropical SSTs) and thus gives a better comparison of Nino strength from Nino to Nino: 26 has been record warmest since early Aug and currently is 0.13 warmer than 97, 0.47 warmer than 82, .61 warmer than 15, and 1.47 warmer than 23: Here’s the new Euro RONI prog: 26-7 remains strongest, even warmer than the rapidly warming late peaking 82-3 although only barely warmer than 83 in Jan:
  6. GaWx
    0Z Euro has landfall near Biloxi ~8AM CDT Sat at 986 mb.
  7. GaWx
    The 0Z UKMET landfalls at Mobile at 987 mb ~4AM CDT Sat, which is weaker than its lowest SLP of 978 mb 12 hours earlier in the N Gulf. The center then moves N over W AL before turning left into EC MS and then NE MS. Beneficial rains fall over much of the SE.
  8. GaWx
    That’s interesting that it dropped slightly. But it’s still a record high back to 1979 for AS. For all bimonthlies, the record high is 2.9 (AM of 1983).
  9. GaWx
    Very nice ice!
  10. GaWx
    12Z UKMET is strongest run yet with a H (65 knots/983 mb) hitting Biloxi followed by a move N into MS: NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 24 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 24 : 21.6N 93.7W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 07.10.2026 24 21.6N 93.7W 1005 29 0000UTC 08.10.2026 36 22.0N 93.2W 1003 28 1200UTC 08.10.2026 48 22.6N 92.4W 1000 35 0000UTC 09.10.2026 60 22.7N 90.9W 999 31 1200UTC 09.10.2026 72 24.6N 89.6W 995 41 0000UTC 10.10.2026 84 26.4N 89.2W 992 45 1200UTC 10.10.2026 96 29.2N 88.7W 983 65 0000UTC 11.10.2026 108 32.3N 90.0W 994 26 1200UTC 11.10.2026 120 33.4N 90.4W 1003 27 0000UTC 12.10.2026 132 CEASED TRACKING
  11. GaWx
    I wonder if the GA/AL game in Tuscaloosa on Sat night (7:30PM EDT start) will be heavily impacted by the Gulf tropical cyclone forecasted to form soon. Any guesses?
  12. GaWx
    Do you think that the GA/AL game in Tuscaloosa on Sat night (7:30PM EDT start) will be heavily impacted? Edit: NHC track takes it past Tuscaloosa early afternoon. That tells me that the game itself during the evening shouldn’t be affected too heavily.
  13. GaWx
    0Z UKMET: landfall ~175 miles W of 12Z run with it near far SE LA and then MS. Strongest run yet with high end TS/990 mb: NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 54 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 54 : 22.2N 92.1W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 08.10.2026 60 22.7N 91.7W 1003 30 0000UTC 09.10.2026 72 22.9N 89.9W 1001 30 1200UTC 09.10.2026 84 25.4N 88.6W 999 39 0000UTC 10.10.2026 96 26.4N 88.5W 997 48 1200UTC 10.10.2026 108 29.2N 88.7W 990 58 0000UTC 11.10.2026 120 32.1N 89.5W 992 29 1200UTC 11.10.2026 132 33.8N 88.8W 1002 25 0000UTC 12.10.2026 144 38.4N 83.2W 1003 12 1200UTC 12.10.2026 156 CEASED TRACKING
  14. GaWx
    Today’s Euro weekly for 10/5-11 is the final one: Look how much the cold signal for 10/5-11 in the E weakened overall over the last 10 days. However, the signal remained at about the same level in from the NE to down the coast NYC to Hatteras: Sep 25th run for 10/5-11: much stronger cold signal Week 2 (10/12-18) is warm. Just a few days ago it was cool. Other than week 1, the only other cool E weak is week three, 10/19-25: this week has been mainly coolish over the last week of runs:
  15. GaWx
    Today’s NOAA weekly relative ENSO release for last week: 23SEP2026 3.9 3.1 2.2 0.1 30SEP2026 4.5 3.3 2.3 0.1 Nino 1+2 warmed up strongly (0.6) to +4.5! For the week, it obliterates the prior record back to 1981 of +3.5 (1997). It is only barely shy of the all time record for any week of +4.6 (6/29/1983). Nino 3 warmed up by 0.2 to +3.3. That’s a new record high for the week with it beating the +2.8 of 1997. The record for any week is +3.6 (12/29/1982). Nino 3.4 warmed slightly to +2.3. This barely beats the +2.2 of 1982 for the week. The warmest for any week is +2.9 (12/29/82). Nino 4 remained at only +0.1, which in combo with the way warmer Nino 3 and Nino 1+2, makes ‘26 easily the most E based Nino on record. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/rel_wksst9120.txt
  16. GaWx
    60%/80% now: Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Mon Oct 5 2026 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America: 1. Southwestern Gulf of America (AL92): A trough of low pressure over the southwestern Gulf of America is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Although environmental conditions appear to be marginally conducive, gradual development is becoming more likely, and a tropical depression is expected to form during the middle portion of the week. This system is expected to drift eastward over the next couple of days, before it turns northward. It is too early to determine the specific impacts to the northern Gulf Coast, but interests there should closely monitor the progress of this system. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.
  17. GaWx
    12Z UKMET: shifts back east from 0Z run’s far SE LA to MS/AL border track to new track into FL Pan for mid-grade TS followed by NNE and then NNW move in AL: NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 66 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 66 : 22.8N 92.4W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 08.10.2026 72 24.0N 91.4W 1002 30 0000UTC 09.10.2026 84 25.2N 89.4W 999 34 1200UTC 09.10.2026 96 26.7N 88.0W 996 44 0000UTC 10.10.2026 108 28.7N 86.9W 995 49 1200UTC 10.10.2026 120 32.1N 86.1W 999 26 0000UTC 11.10.2026 132 34.5N 87.3W 1001 26 1200UTC 11.10.2026 144 CEASED TRACKING
  18. GaWx
    The thread for the Gulf tropical threat has been started:
  19. GaWx
    We’re almost certainly heading for the most E based Nino on record for good or for bad. The SE ridge should be held back bigly, which would be really good from my perspective.
  20. GaWx
    Thanks, Mitch. Here are the Euro Oct progs for winter going back to 2017-8 for comparison purposes and how they did in the E US: 2026: 2025: much too warm 2024: much too warm 2023 (Nino): too cold 2022: too cold (not warm enough) 2021: net slightly too warm (close SE, too warm NE) 2020: net too warm (much too warm SE; avg of too warm NE but close N Eng) 2019: pretty close (slightly too cold SE but close NE) 2018 (Nino): net too cold (close NE but much too cold SE): 2017: close ———————— Tally: -did well in 19 and esp. 17 -did pretty well 21 -did pretty badly 23, 22, 20, 18 -did terribly 25, 24 -too cold both El Niños in SE and 1 of 2 in NE -NE: too warm on 4, close on 3, too cold on 2 -SE: too warm on 3, close on 2, too cold on 4
  21. GaWx
    Indeed! Model consensus has plentiful to possibly even flooding rains (especially on/near the Gulf coast) in some areas of the SE this weekend! There will likely be a dedicated thread in the Tropical section for this soon: Now cherry (30%/70%): Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Mon Oct 5 2026 Southwestern Gulf of America: A trough of low pressure in the southwestern Gulf of America is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Although environmental conditions appear to be marginally conducive, gradual development is becoming more likely, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the middle or latter portion of the week. This system is expected to drift eastward over the next few days, before it turns northward. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.
  22. GaWx
    Now cherry (30%/70%): Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Mon Oct 5 2026 Southwestern Gulf of America: A trough of low pressure in the southwestern Gulf of America is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Although environmental conditions appear to be marginally conducive, gradual development is becoming more likely, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the middle or latter portion of the week. This system is expected to drift eastward over the next few days, before it turns northward. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.
  23. GaWx
    Up to 10/50% as of 1AM CDT advisory: Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Mon Oct 5 2026 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America: 1. Southwestern Gulf of America: A surface trough of low pressure has developed along the coast of Mexico in the southwestern Gulf of America. Although environmental conditions are expected to be only marginally conducive, gradual development of this system is possible and a tropical depression could form by the second half of this week while it initially drifts eastward before turning northward. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent. Forecaster Papin
  24. GaWx
    Agree 100%. Now will they be T, ST, or ET legs? I think T legs most likely and ET least likely. Speaking of T legs: 0Z UKMET: 5th run in a row with a Gulf TC with it maxing at a mid level TS and land falling over tip of SE LA followed by MS/AL border on Saturday with plentiful rains and even some areas of flooding rains over the SE US over weekend with heaviest Gulf coast: NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 84 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 84 : 23.2N 91.7W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 08.10.2026 84 23.2N 91.7W 1004 28 0000UTC 09.10.2026 96 22.8N 91.3W 1003 26 1200UTC 09.10.2026 108 25.3N 90.3W 1003 35 0000UTC 10.10.2026 120 26.4N 90.7W 1000 38 1200UTC 10.10.2026 132 29.0N 89.5W 998 45 0000UTC 11.10.2026 144 33.4N 88.1W 992 27 1200UTC 11.10.2026 156 35.4N 87.9W 1002 18 0000UTC 12.10.2026 168 CEASED TRACKING
  25. GaWx
    Sunday had a rainy late afternoon and evening, but it was very light. It’s still raining. Total measured only ~0.1”, which gets me to a MTD of ~2.2”. Edit: 8:38AM Mon 10/5: I’ve been getting good rains the last 45 minutes. Edit 7:30PM: Today (10/5) I received ~0.5”, including those good rains between 7:45 and 8:45AM. That puts me at an impressive ~2.7” MTD and matches the model consensus based expectation.
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