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GaWx

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  1. GaWx
    Follow-up: I emailed the 2 contacts who are listed at this CFSv2 site. Just minutes later, the site was updated! Here’s the brand new latest 10 day mean RONI forecast: as expected, the progged peak dropped even further to +2.8. Compare that to the +3.5 runs of late July. It appears it could even drop to +2.75 later this month based on the red vs blue lines:
  2. GaWx
    I don’t know about “ever increasing disaster”, but you must know that there have been some bad seasons since including 2008, 2012, and most of 2016-24. 2016-24 was one of the worst 9 year periods for the SE US overall. Fortunately 2025 as well as 2026 so far have given us a much needed break, especially after the horrible 2024. But that’s less than 2 seasons.
  3. GaWx
    Yesterday’s Euro Weeklies suggested a pretty active period in and near FL during the week of Sept 28-Oct 3rd. This suggests a recurving TC in that area is quite possible: This matches long-term climo well, which is at least close to the most active period for FL throughout the season: These 5 strong+ El Niño analogs with hits in FL during or near this active period shown on the Weeklies suggest to be wary especially in FL then although it’s interesting that these 5 were all 1902 and earlier as the subsequent 11 strong+ Ninos didn’t have a FL hit around then: 1902: 1899: 1896: 1888: 1877:
  4. GaWx
    99L is now a cherry: 1. Eastern Subtropical Atlantic (AL99): Showers and thunderstorms have changed little in organization since this morning in association with an area of low pressure located several hundred miles southwest of the Azores. However, just a small increase in organization is likely to result in the formation of a tropical depression as soon as later today. The system is expected to move slowly over the next couple of days remaining southwest of the Azores, followed by a turn to the southwest by early next week, when environmental conditions are forecast to become less favorable for additional development. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.
  5. GaWx
    Is 99L going to be the first TC formation of the month? Edouard became a TC in August. When was the last Sept that didn’t have a TC formation by now? 2025 took til Sep 17th. 1976 didn’t have one that later became a TS til the TD that formed on 9/26 and that became TS Gloria on 9/27. And there was a ST storm on Sept 13th. So, that doesn’t count as a TC. However, 1976 also had 2 TCs that maxed out as only TDs early in Sep. in the satellite era. So, even if a TD is declared today, 2026 has already beaten 2025 for the latest 1st TC declared in Sept. during the satellite era. Now, if it becomes a TS, that would mean that 1976 would remain the season with the latest first named TS in Sept. in the satellite era, which is Sept 27th.
  6. GaWx
    This CFSv2 seasonal prediction site, which includes the ENSO SSTa forecasts, hasn’t updated in over 4 days: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/CFSv2seasonal.shtml This is the most recent 10 day mean forecast for RONI: this has a peak at +2.9, compares to peaks of ~+3.5 on some runs from late July, and was suggesting further drops in the peak being likely on later 10 day means due to most of the blue lines being lower than the red ones:
  7. GaWx
    12Z UKMET is at least the 2nd full run with it as a TD but the prior run didn’t do so until hour 36 (tomorrow at 8AM EDT) before dissipating it 48 hrs later; this run has it already doing that as of 2PM EDT today and then moving very little and never becoming a TS prior to dissipating at hour 96: GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 18.09.2026 NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 6 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 6 : 31.9N 34.2W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 0000UTC 19.09.2026 12 32.2N 33.6W 1016 20 1200UTC 19.09.2026 24 32.7N 33.2W 1014 22 0000UTC 20.09.2026 36 33.1N 33.4W 1015 22 1200UTC 20.09.2026 48 33.8N 32.9W 1014 27 0000UTC 21.09.2026 60 35.0N 32.6W 1014 25 1200UTC 21.09.2026 72 34.5N 31.9W 1015 27 0000UTC 22.09.2026 84 33.5N 32.7W 1017 25 1200UTC 22.09.2026 96 CEASED TRACKING
  8. GaWx
    The SOI has been negative for 37 days in a row.
  9. GaWx
    The area near the Azores is now Invest 99L.
  10. GaWx
    Something may be forming near the Azores: From 8AM TWO: Eastern Subtropical Atlantic: A trough of low pressure located several hundred miles southwest of the Azores is producing showers and thunderstorms that are showing some signs of organization. Environmental conditions appear marginally favorable for additional development over the next couple of days while the system moves slowly over the eastern portion of the Subtropical Atlantic. By early next week, environmental conditions are forecast to become less favorable for development. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.
  11. GaWx
    The AAM is now up to +3.7 and has a good chance to be off the chart tomorrow!
  12. GaWx
    The mean global AAM based on this is not much above 0…+0.5 at most, not at all jibing with the Sep 17th +3.3. I don’t get it.
  13. GaWx
    Indeed, the weighted avg of your graph, which looks like it is only ~+1.25 to 1.5, doesn’t at all jibe with the image below, which shows it ~+3.3:
  14. GaWx
    12Z UKMET: again says no Gulf TC
  15. GaWx
    It still does have a system / vorticity breaking off of the CAG 130'ish hours into the 6Z run, it just fails to develop a fully fledged TC and bring that into the GOM. That could just as easily come back on the 12z today. Again, chaotic. Though, yes, it also breaks off vorticity and develops a hurricane late in the run. Meh, these simulations will remain complete choas until something actually resolves. If anything can be taken from these runs at this point, it's to say we should have a warbling surface trough gyre establish itself by this weekend over central America and we just need to watch for any pieces of energy and vorticity that may break off on either side of the landmass (EPAC or WCARIB) for potential development over the next few weeks. The MJO is heading toward favorable phases for TCG at this time of year, which Joe Bastardi has been appropriately emphasizing in his call for activity:
  16. GaWx
    Despite the Euro having something in the Gulf late, ironically the crazy GFS has no Gulf TC on its 6Z for the 1st run since way back at 18Z of 9/14! It just has one moving just N of Cuba (not in Gulf) at 384.
  17. GaWx
    The off again, on again UKMET is now off again with a Gulf TC fwiw.
  18. GaWx
    5th CFSv2 AAM run in a row with an extreme/historic level of 4+ being progged starting Sep 19th! It looks like it’s going to actually happen, folks! My inner weenie is genuinely excited:
  19. GaWx
    Per Eric Webb’s table, 1925-6 trimonthlies peaked at +1.3.
  20. GaWx
    The E US heat of Sept 2026 is somewhat similar to the intense E US heat of another El Niño Sept, that of record breaking 1925.
  21. GaWx
    This chart agrees with your data that the minimum has passed due to increases during the last week: 2026 is now back to ~175K sq km above the 2013-24 avg for Sept 15th, which is the best in relation to that avg in about a month. It’s now per this chart >800K higher than it was on 9/15/2020! 2020 didn’t reach yesterday’s level til ~Oct 5th! The cold Arctic N of 80N during summer very likely helped:
  22. GaWx
    Thanks. I agree 100% with the above analysis as of Sept 13th MTD suggesting Sept of 2026 at GSO would (assuming the model projection is in the ballpark of reality of course) obliterate 2019’s 76.4F! Update: Sept 1-15 is at 80.0, which is consistent with the graph. But FYI regarding GSO’s warmest Septembers on record: 1921 at 78.2 and 1925 at 77.9 were warmer than 3rd place’s 2019 at 76.4. Even so: if I look at projections for these projections for the 2nd half of September and assuming they’re in the ballpark of reality, GSO would even be flirting with 1921’s 78.2! The projection I ran was 78.1, which would obliterate 2019’s 76.4. https://www.weather.gov/wrh/Climate?wfo=rah
  23. GaWx
    After having a central Gulf TD late on yesterday’s 12Z per the quoted post and then not on the 0Z, today’s 12Z UKMET at the identical time (18Z on 9/21) has a TD form albeit in the E Gulf rather than C Gulf and with it moving very slowly WNW just like yesterday’s run had: NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 126 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+126 : 26.8N 84.1W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 0000UTC 22.09.2026 132 26.6N 84.0W 1008 21 1200UTC 22.09.2026 144 27.0N 84.7W 1008 20 0000UTC 23.09.2026 156 27.1N 84.7W 1008 25 1200UTC 23.09.2026 168 27.2N 85.4W 1006 31
  24. GaWx
    9/15 12Z CFSv2 consistent with 0Z run having AAM on Sep 19th go to a historical extreme level (+4+):
  25. GaWx
    Chuck, I’m thinking that the reason the 2m anomalies aren’t as impressive as the H5 anomalies is probably that there’s a lot of Atlantic origin moist and cooler air in the 2m mix as opposed to drier and hotter land based air. Opinions?
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