GaWx

Don, once you adjust normals upward to take into account GW, is deep cold still about as common as it ever was? Example: adjust normals upward by 3F vs what normals were from around 1900. After doing so, is same degree of extreme cold about as common as it was then?

Of course warmest will outpace coldest with global land areas averaging 3F warmer than where the avg was in 1900. If you were to subtract 3F from recent years of records, wouldn’t cold anomalies be on par with warm anomalies?

Pick your model. If one picks Feb 8th ext GEFS like you did (2/9 ext GEFS not out yet), it looks mild. But if one picks the Euro Weeklies, which is a superior model to the GEFS, it isn’t as it’s a mix of AN, NN, and BN. Of course none of them are reliable that far out. But I much prefer the ext Euro over ext GEFS.

Per what the EW have been showing this period (2/17-23) could end up the warmest week in the E 1/3 of the US overall, possibly even in the absolutes in some areas, til at least late March.

The EW week 3/2-8 suggests warmer sneaking back in but not even to the E coast. But afterward, the EW then suggest that that warming, itself, would also be temporary as per what I just posted.

Today’s Euro Weeklies fwiw for Feb 23rd-Mar 22nd still show no sustained NE warmth and only limited sustained warmth at most in rest of E US: 2/23-3/1 cold NE/NN elsewhere: 3/2-8 NN NE; this is only AN week of these 4 weeks OH Valley to SE and it doesn’t even have sustained torching as it’s just the edge: 3/9-15 cooled back to NN all of E US: 3/16-22 NN entire E US: Notice that on all of these maps the W 1/2 of US is mild. More often than not, that supports the E US at the least not being mild and sometimes downright cold. This is certainly not a warm look for the E US and suggests no early spring despite the expected false spring next week. @40/70 Benchmark

Very beneficial rains coming to much of SE over next 7 day period per these 12Z runs: GEFS: Euro: GFS: CMC:

Regardless, prospects of heavy qpf is potentially the most important news coming out of this as regards helping with the drought. The SE needs the rain!

The threat of a mid-month winter storm for your area on the operationals has obviously come down as I posted. However, todays still cold and after the next few days’ of non-torch warming, it still looks mainly cold up your way for most of 2/12-15 (much colder anomalies than down here). Plus highly beneficial rain appears to be headed into much of the drought parched SE though sadly probably not down here. Then after a 6 day warming, it cools off substantially again with no sign of sustained warmth for late month into early March. With this, I expect at least one more wintry threat for much of especially well inland NC as the WPO and AO fall back some A key though will be the PNA. It’s headed for unfavorable stout negative territory, but will it rise back to closer to neutral late month? PNA has been mainly over performing vs largely poor predictions.

The other 0Z ops are also quiet. But here’s the 0Z GEFS:

I finally finished my analysis of temperatures at Baltimore (as a rep. of the middle portion of the E coast) during the 20 La Niña Februaries (566 days, a big sample) by MJO phase. Keep in mind that La Niña Februaries in the E US have averaged a bit AN (+2.3F at Baltimore) as expected. That shouldn’t be forgotten when looking at each phase. So, that’s going to make it hard for any Niña phase to be cold in Feb. If a phase is colder (warmer) than +2.3, I’m considering it a cold (warm) phase on average relative to La Niña Feb climo. Here are the resulting anomalies (in degrees F) keeping in mind these are merely averages of a wide range from MB or B to MA for each phase: Phase 1: +2.1 (near Niña Feb climo) Phase 2: +4.4 (2nd warmest) Phase 3: -1.5 (easily coldest at 3.8 colder than Niña Feb climo) Phase 4: +3.3 Phase 5: +3.1 Phase 6: +5.5 (warmest) Phase 7: +2.2 (near Nina Feb climo) Phase 8: +0.7 (2nd coldest) Data sources: 1. MJO for each day of the 20 La Niña Febs: https://www.bom.gov.au/clim_data/IDCKGEM000/rmm.74toRealtime.txt 2. Daily Baltimore temperatures for each day in Feb: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/Climate?wfo=lwx

I have to admit Bad Bunny wasn’t bad at all at the Super Bowl halftime show. It was quite entertaining despite my understanding very little Spanish and was better than most of these in recent years imho.

Today’s crisp sunny very low dewpoint day was near ideal for my walk today! Nice way to top off a great weekend for outdoor activities.

When you imply that Nov-Jan were all 3 BN cold, what specific area are you referring to? TIA

Clownies for 0Z: CMC King

0Z Euro nice hit N NC:

12Z Euro has notable snow much of NC and VA starting Valentine’s Day afternoon and ending late that night:

Dominant indices Jan 15-Feb 4:- moderate to strong +PNA- strong to very strong -AO- moderate to very strong -EPO- moderate to strong -WPO- so one of the greatest 3 week long combos of +PNA, -AO, -EPO, -WPO on record- strong to moderate MJO phases 6-7 and weak phase 8- neutral NAO averaged out with no strong anomalies

0Z Euro: nice snow NE NC AM of Feb 13th:

I hate to see such large discrepancies in anomalies when comparing sources. It’s not comforting to say the least. Maybe they are and I have no evidence to the contrary at least right now, but how do you know for sure that the 2m temp forecasts themselves between Euro native and WB are the same?

There’s no indication that the Euro native site is using 1981-2010 for its climo base. Is it possible you’re mixing up Tropical Tidbits with the Euro native base? TT does use 1981-2010 as that’s what’s shown on many of their maps. Regarding the Euro native site itself, it refers to the last 20 years for its climo base. So, that means a base of 2006-2025 for the in-house Euro maps. Compared to the 1991-2020 base of WxBell, that means the climo base for the native Euro maps is actually warmer than rather than colder than WB. So, if the only difference between WB and native Euro were the climo base and WB didn’t have algorithm issues, then the WB anomaly maps would actually be a little warmer rather than colder than the native Euro maps. So, that means that the WB cold bias is actually even worse rather than better when considering climo base differences! So, there really is a big problem with WB Euro maps. Thus, if anything, WB Euro Weekly NYC 2m anomalies on that map are >3F too cold…perhaps closer to 4F too cold! And don’t forget that out west, that WB map is 5-10F too cold before considering climo base differences based on what I just showed! @MJO812@donsutherland1

Anthony, It’s important to be aware that the WxBell Euro EW 2m maps have a notable 2m temp cold bias as I’ve posted about repeatedly. I have an easy way to show this by posting the in-house Euro weeklies maps covering the same period and comparing to this WB map. Examples: -The Rockies and west coast are a very cold -3F to -10F for 2/21-3/22 on your map. What?!? -Chicago/OH Valley are -2F, Asheville is -3F, Detroit is -4F, DC/Richmond are -3F, ATL/CLT are -1F. -Now check out ECMWF’s in-house maps for the truth: no BN on any maps covering the same period for the locations I listed 2/23-3/1: 3/2-8: 3/9-15: 3/16-22: So based on the truth, the Rockies and much of the West should be a bit AN instead of well BN. So, that means they’re mainly 5F to 10F too cold on WB! The E cities I listed should be NN in Chic, Det, Ohio Valley, DC, Richmond, and +1F in ATL/CLT/ASH. So, that means these locations are 2-4F too cold on WB. WxBell has NYC at -4F. The truth is that they should be -1F. So, NYC is 3F too cold on WB. @donsutherland1this remains a problem

It’s the WxBell CFS, not their Euro, that has those weird issues. WxBell Euro just has a straight 2m cold bias. And you must have meant a S. Lake Michigan - departure (not Superior, which actually typically has the opposite, a relative + departure in the E portion) just as this CFS has:

Tweets are often exaggerations as we know. The new Euro for March is still mainly warmer than normal but no torch as it’s mainly only slightly AN since it’s cooler than the forecast from a month ago: Last month’s Euro for March: Today’s Euro for March: not as mild with only ~1F AN NE, 2 AN DC, Chicago, Detroit, and RDU, and 2-2.5 AN ATL/MEM for example: April also came in cooler than it had last month. I am wary, however, about WxBell Euro 2m temp anomalies having a cold bias due to their algos. So, you probably have to add at least 1F to what I said to adjust for that bias. So, more like at least 2F AN NE and at least 3-3.5 AN in the other cities I listed. So, again not as warm as last month’s forecast and not really a torch, but still fairly mild especially after the bias correction. I can’t find March by itself at the ecmwf site, itself, unfortunately.

That’s during the morning of 2/13, the morning before Valentine’s Day. I was referring to a storm on Val. Day that’s been showing up on some runs and being posted about here. Regardless, it’s still way out there and will change.