GaWx

And that’s not surprisingly the area of formation where the EWs have been suggesting would probably be the greatest threat to the US 9/15+ though SC north has a notable threat from the open Atlantic, too: 9/15-21: 9/22-28:

Update on EW from Lazza at S2k: Update on EW vs 2 days ago: slightly quieter 2nd 1/2 but still much more active 2nd half of Sep vs 1st half:1-7: 4.5 (0.3)8-14: 8 (0.5)15-21: 14 (0.9)22-28: 18.5 (1.3)

12Z models: UKMET/GFS/Icon: TD but it then dissipates pretty quickly CMC: just weak low Euro: TD that recurves just offshore NC 9/12: JMA: nada

NYC 50”+: DJF Webb ONI pre 1950/RONI 1950+ 1872-3 CN 1874-5 CN 1898-9 CN 1906-7 CN 1915-6 CN 1916-7 SLN 1922-3 CN 1933-4 MLN 1947-8 WN 1960-1 WN 1966-7 CN 1977-8 WEN 1993-4 WN 1995-6 WLN 2009-10 MEN 2010-1 MLN 2013-4 CN 2014-5 WN 8 CN 4 WN 2 MLN 1 each of SLN, WLN, WEN, MEN 1. CN/WN 12 of 18 (67%) vs only 66 of 156 DJFs (42%). So, chance may have been enhanced by neutral. EN: 2 of 18 (11%) vs 49 of 156 (31%). So, chance may have been decreased by EN. LN: 4 of 18 (22%) vs 41 of 156 (26%)…so, LN may have been pretty neutral influence. 2. 19% of last 32 years 50”+ comparable to 17% of 36 years 1898-9 through 1933-4 @bluewave@donsutherland1

0Z UK NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 120 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+120 : 14.4N 35.2W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 0000UTC 04.09.2025 120 14.4N 35.2W 1012 30 1200UTC 04.09.2025 132 15.2N 36.8W 1012 30 0000UTC 05.09.2025 144 15.8N 38.4W 1012 26 1200UTC 05.09.2025 156 16.8N 40.3W 1012 27 0000UTC 06.09.2025 168 17.5N 42.4W 1013 25

The 87 year old father of one of my best friends passed as a result. My friend and his wife had moved from NO to ATL 30 years earlier. His father and mother were living in a house in N.O. They unfortunately hadn’t evacuated. The water rose so fast! Inside the house, he went under and wasn’t seen by his mother coming back up. There was nothing she could do. They also had a several years old cat, who was nowhere to be seen. She was devastated, but she then needed to save her own life. His mother, then ~76 year old, amazingly survived by (as I recall my friend saying) standing on a wall on the property attached to the house and standing on it for hours (while I think holding on to the adjacent roof to keep her balance if I’m recalling this correctly) until rescuers in a boat could get to her. Can you imagine a 76 year old being strong enough to do that physically and emotionally after what she had just seen happen to her husband of 55 years?! His mother then moved to Atlanta to live with her son/daughter in law. My devastated friend weeks later had to go to N.O. to identify his father’s dead body. Can you imagine how terrible an experience that must have been? That’s not the end of the story. After my friend identified his father’s body and then checked out the totaled house, he starting hearing meows nearby. Lo and behold, it was his parents’ cat, which though malnourished, miraculously survived and was ok!! That cat later came back home to ATL, got back to full health, and lived another 10+ years! His mother lived about another 18 years! Things like this remind me to always be grateful for quiet seasons or at least seasons with few or no landfalls.

That’s a WxBell version of yesterday’s Euro Weeklies that covers 8/28-9/26 of 2025. I prefer to look at the output from the source, itself, ECMWF, as some WxBell maps are of questionable accuracy due to their algos: 9/1-7: slightly BN coastal MA (tan 1st shade is within 10 mm BN or <0.4” BN) and NN inland MA and all of NE 9/8-14: NN MA, slightly BN much of NE 9/15-21: NN 9/22-28: NN These 4 weeks don’t look as dry as the WxBell 30 day map implies. @mitchnick

I was going to post this, but you beat me to it.

0Z UKMET for system leaving Africa over weekend (E MDR lemon): NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 108 HOURSFORECAST POSITION AT T+108 : 13.5N 28.4WLEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WINDVERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------1200UTC 02.09.2025 108 13.5N 28.4W 1010 310000UTC 03.09.2025 120 14.0N 30.9W 1011 331200UTC 03.09.2025 132 15.9N 31.8W 1010 340000UTC 04.09.2025 144 16.4N 34.6W 1012 281200UTC 04.09.2025 156 17.2N 35.4W 1013 260000UTC 05.09.2025 168 18.4N 36.8W 1013 24

I‘m guessing that the unimpressiveness of the wave over W Africa, the one the lemon is addressing, is why the models have backed off so much since Mon, when all major ops other than the GFS had this develop into a TC in the E MDR near the CV Islands.

This wave won’t be coming off Africa til sometime this weekend.

The 12Z GFS has this and makes it a H. The 12Z Euro has just a weak low. For the record: after 4 12Z JMA runs in a row with a TC from this, today’s 12Z JMA had no TC.

My (lazza) Euro Weeklies update Tue’s (8/26/25) Euro Weeklies ACE Sep progs vs very active 20 yr climo:1-7: 4.5 (0.3)8-14: 11.3 (0.7)15-21: 20.4 (1.3)22-28: 22.4 (1.6)Today’s (8/28/25) EW ACE progs are less active weeks 2-4 vs the Tue run but still show the same pattern of a relatively quiet first half of Sept and a much more active 2nd half somewhat similar to Sept of 2024:1-7: 4.5 (0.3)8-14: 8 (0.5)15-21: 17 (1.1)22-28: 20 (1.4)

Followup on AEW coming off Africa as early as tomorrow: 12Z UKMET: has a TS that is already recurving before 40W: NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 138 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+138 : 15.3N 32.1W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 03.09.2025 144 16.0N 33.0W 1010 37 0000UTC 04.09.2025 156 16.9N 35.4W 1010 40 1200UTC 04.09.2025 168 18.6N 37.0W 1010 38

Though yesterday’s full daily average sunspot # didn’t come close to the 290 record high for the current cycle, it still was a very impressive 207 and today’s early avg is at 209: 2025 08 22 2025.640 57 8.7 25 27 2025 08 23 2025.642 75 7.0 23 28 2025 08 24 2025.645 110 8.2 31 38 2025 08 25 2025.648 139 15.2 35 42 2025 08 26 2025.651 191 21.2 30 34 2025 08 27 2025.653 207 17.2 20 28 2025 08 28 2025.656 209 15.8 10 12 @snowman19

It was negative but it was negative 1948-55. So, it was very different back then as opposed to back and forth every two years.

Though support has waned significantly since all but the GFS had it on Monday, the 0Z UKMET brought the E MDR AEW back from the dead (albeit with later TCG) with a minimal TS due to a strong pressure gradient below a rather strong Azores high moving WNW: NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 156 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+156 : 15.6N 33.8W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 03.09.2025 156 15.6N 33.8W 1010 34 0000UTC 04.09.2025 168 16.9N 35.9W 1011 35 ——- But GFS/Icon/CMC/Euro have no more than a weak reflection at the sfc. Yesterday’s 12Z JMA has close to a TD but it doesn’t develop further and weakens. If this were to develop, it like Erin due to latitude would be a good recurve safely candidate as of the current model consensus of steering fwiw but a long ways to go if it were to actually develop. Edit: Some EPS members develop this but only a pretty small percentage do that. The GEFS is very quiet, however.

Though support has waned significantly since all but the GFS had it on Monday, the 0Z UKMET brought the E MDR AEW back from the dead (albeit with later TCG) with a minimal TS due to a strong pressure gradient below a rather strong Azores high moving WNW: NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 156 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+156 : 15.6N 33.8W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 03.09.2025 156 15.6N 33.8W 1010 34 0000UTC 04.09.2025 168 16.9N 35.9W 1011 35 ——- But 0Z GFS/Icon and probably CMC have nothing.

-Indeed, only 11 of 15 La Niña seasons (I’m including 2024) since 1995 had well AN active era ACE though that’s still near 3/4 of them. -For neutral: only 1/3 had well AN active ACE -For El Niño: only 2/9 had well AN ACE -So, La Niña has been associated with the highest odds by far of a high ACE season

Models/MJO suggest it should remain pretty quiet at least through the first week of Sept. Enjoy the chilly respite/rest while we have it as it may not remain that way for too long after that.

Not that I want H hits in the SE because I don’t as I’d love a boring shutout! But keep in mind that the lowest August temp since 2001 in RDU, GSO, ATL, and most major stations in TN/NC/SC/GA and some in AL was in early to mid August of 2004. That month had a 2-3 week long stretch of BN temps. The very next month had 3 bad hurricanes hit FL.

Don’t forget that August of 2004 had 2-3 weeks straight of BN.

Keep in mind that the lowest August temp since 2001 in RDU, GSO, ATL, and most major stations in TN/NC/SC/GA and some in AL was in early to mid August of 2004. The next month had 2 bad hurricanes hit the FL E coast and 3 in total in addition to Charley in that same August.

I just researched this further. This is the source for the “monthly record low”: https://coolwx.com/record/ According to it, PDK (not ATL), which coolwx also calls “Atlanta”, did actually have an unofficial monthly record low this morning with its 55 as that broke its monthly record low of 55.4 (2004). But these PDK records go back only 44 years (1981 or 1982). To compare, KATL had a 56 on 8/14/2004. So, the KPDK 55 in August of 2004 does jibe well with the KATL official 56 then.KPDK Atlanta, GA United States 55.0 59.0 55.4 -5.8 (2013) (2004) (1985) -4.0 44 KPDK It’s not an official KATL monthly record low, which is 55 (1992 and 1986). Their low this morning was 60 vs daily record low of 57. Per this, PDK (same as Chamblee) actually got down to 54 for the low:CHAMBLEE CLEAR 57 52 83 N3 30.22R TC 14 6HR MIN TEMP: 54

Impressive spike! So, I just looked at SIDC, which shows that 290 on 7/18/24, and see “only” 204 for today’s early avg: https://www.sidc.be/SILSO/DATA/EISN/EISN_current.txt 2025 08 26 2025.651 187 21.4 26 29 2025 08 27 2025.653 204 15.3 9 13 Let’s see where the full 8/27/25 avg ends up.