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Buddy1987

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Everything posted by Buddy1987

  1. Buddy1987
    Icon is def late. Normally 945ish is initiation. RGEM out to 24hrs. That’s gonna be a big indicator for me what we have going on or at least to an extent because both it and CMC were further south and east at 12/18z
  2. Buddy1987
    Still have no room to complain down this way but can obv see why DC crew would be disappointed. Precip shield is more consolidated at 51 and 54.
  3. Buddy1987
    I thought the same. Moisture trajectory and nw extent seemed limited IMO.
  4. Buddy1987
    I’m not gonna lie back in the day you saw the SREF make a move you knew the NAM or ETA for that matter was getting ready to give us a bomb or a dud.
  5. Buddy1987
    @BullCityWx is there anything stopping this storm from amping more vs being suppressed? I get the northern stream interaction but anything up top?
  6. Buddy1987
    I will def give you that and agree to it. In all reality last Sunday the Euro showed a very good storm for us come this Sunday, lost it and now is def trending toward the other guidance.
  7. Buddy1987
    Euro def the most southeast of guidance. Has been very topsy turvy as of late. Having a hard time really entrusting in it regardless of what my backyard sees. All models have made a significant jump albeit CMC is leaning more toward the camp of the Euro. Interesting to see what ensembles show but we’re almost at the time of the op being the predominant choice to view.
  8. Buddy1987
    Idk man I think you would agree with this sentiment but the Euro hasn’t been itself as of late. Maybe I’m wrong or maybe there’s a compromise in between more amped models vs Euro/CMC combo but those developing winds at 250 just scream some awesome moisture transport so I think regardless we have some good advection and some good quality rates even if the storm is progressive in nature.
  9. Buddy1987
    Safe to assume guys all the players are on the field or within RAOB sites to give a more definitive picture or at least make sense of the major shifts that have occurred this afternoon or evening?
  10. Buddy1987
    Assuming all the players are on the field now or at least within RAOB to where it’s being sampled correctly? Thus the shift that we’ve seen this afternoon going into happy hour?
  11. Buddy1987
    Gfs para looks to be a juice bomb at 60 getting ready to turn nw as well @66 and @72 @BornAgain13 might not want to look could give you a heart attack. Just an absolute mauling. Very Nam’ish solid 6-10” event for NC mountains/southern va. Even some accumulation back into the NW triad. Haven’t looked at 850s or upstairs to see if it’s all snow.
  12. Buddy1987
    Placement of the SLP tho at 72 on gfs looks a little wonky compared to 6z. 6z much closer to coastline but precip panels look even more NW than previous run.
  13. Buddy1987
    GFS looks juicy @69! Incoming shellacking
  14. Buddy1987
    Holy sh*t at the Nam! @Blue_Ridge_Escarpment @BornAgain13 happy hour starting early today!
  15. Buddy1987
    6z Euro. The trend continues
  16. Buddy1987
    Agreed. Icon for me as of right now gets full credit it’s been showing it for multiple runs.
  17. Buddy1987
    I absolutely love the enthusiasm in here but I just feel burned so many times I can’t really believe it until it gets much closer. I def agree with everyone that the big dogs are most def modeled further out than others. @BullCityWx @ILMRoss @burrel2 @eyewall if you guys want 30” and I can get a foot by all means let’s make a deal!
  18. Buddy1987
    One could say they don’t trust the GFS but then after what the euro just did this weekend it’s a complete crapshoot IMO. Idk what to think anymore with this model mayhem. Unless it’s within 4 days it’s not credible anymore.
  19. Buddy1987
    Didn’t see anyone talk about the 0z CMC for mid week storm next week. That looked like it had some serious juice and potential with it. Def a signal from most models in that time frame. I would fully expect that if we could sacrifice Sunday’s system for a doozy middle of next week everyone would be on board.
  20. Buddy1987
    Yea completely different than cmc/icon/euro blend
  21. Buddy1987
    Man! Come back in to reset my mind from present to future after today’s event and the Euro just plants a weenies dream. Anyone with Euro maps access think this scenario is beyond plausible and if so what it is keying on vs the gfs? Is there enough spacing with the cutter and then the possible storm day 7?
  22. Buddy1987
    Ended inbetween 5-6” a win in my book. Precip shut off faster than what models showed.
  23. Buddy1987
    Looks like this may be it back end right around the corner. Gonna have to hope for some wrap around or some type of influence from the coastal. Unlikely on the latter.
  24. Buddy1987
    Up over 5” now in Roanoke. Light to moderate snow still falling. Going to take daughter and dog for a walk here. Enjoy all!
  25. Buddy1987
    That sucks! You guys are gonna get yours sooner than later.
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