Buddy1987

Not entirely. Has support of Ensembles which is still perfectly fine this far out.

12z ICON has a Valdosta/Myrtle/New Bern to just west of VA Beach type track. Still looks good for at the minimum I-40 north

You can see the bean type shape taking place at 99 transfer of energy to the E/NE of Valdosta signifying a Miller B type setup now. Another thing to note; another run that is slower as well.

Damn ICON looking sexy out to 90. Much more of a Miller A type storm much further south then its 6z run

Face value Nam looks better than gfs by end of the run but Nam is so far out still have to wait at least a solid like 36 hrs. Looking to use 3k Nam when it’s in range for llc side note high pressure 4mb’s weaker as well but still in a nice spot by end of the run

Still a little early in the run to see how it plays out. Hr 54 on 850 map low is southwest of where it was modeled at 6z so there’s that.

Nam at 48 continues the trend of somewhat weaker energy dropping down out of Montana.

Well peeps. Couple observations waking up here. Watching these things and learning more and more over the years I’ve learned in these setups how biases and known faults of a specific model suite rear their ugly heads. With the 6z OP GFS this is one of those. Pile driving the low up into or west of the spine of the appalachians is a known bias and I would hope that any Met would have my back on this, as I’ve literally seen it on numerous occasions, only to come back down to earth and readjust and align with other guidance. NOW with that being said, there has been a noticeable shift in guidance to allow this storm to be able to build westward due to numerous factors. Want to point out a couple things from early morning guidance. End of the NAM run has probably the strongest HP in eastern Canada I’ve seen thus far on the models. HR 84 has a 1043 powerhouse sitting in prime position. If you look at the same time, GFS is several mb’s weaker. This is significant for a couple reasons, namely because of the NAM having superiority when it comes to low level resolutions that does best in CAD setups (yes I realize we are talking long range NAM) but also because unless the HP is screaming to get out of the way, the LP will more often than not behave accordingly and be pushed underneath the dense airmass. One thing to watch in subsequent runs and as the NAM comes more into range is how much it weakens the HP. OP GFS weakens it by 6mb’s within a 12 hour time however still leaves it in a decent place, just north of the Lake Placid, Plattsburgh NY area, around the time the system nears. Now, looking at overnight and early morning runs of the GEFS and EPS, they are still seeing what my money was placed on last night and that is a more “conventional and traditional” track for big money snows north of an i-85 line (of course mix line will fall somewhere in-between I-40 and up to 460 potentially, just dependent on how strong the push of WAA ends up being) All in all, I still believe this is a WNC, NC/VA border up into SVA beat down, with the system taking a Fayetville/Wilmington line and then into or just east of the VA Capes.

Seriously agree here. You can give me 5” of absolute concrete compacted and I would be ecstatic. Been a good couple of years since we’ve even gotten anything remotely good. Beggars def can’t be choosers. Heavy snowfall that accumulates is essentially a bonus at this juncture

Tough to buy into UK when it’s always late to the party and trends southeast to northwest as the event draws closer.

I am still in a camp (and may be the only soul left) to where I believe the models are being ultra aggressive in driving the LP too far north and west. You look at past events and with the baroclinic zone/Gulf Stream, a lot of storms tend to stick there. My money at the moment is a Fayetville/Wilmington to VA Capes track.

CMC still keeps cad locked in more so than gfs. Looking at individual ensembles there are still some nice looking placement of the LP’s. All is not lost guys. I guarantee a whole bunch in here would take a raging sleet fest than a driving rain storm.

Yes to be exact there were 21 dropsondes. Message issued by the Senior Duty Meteorologist out of College Park MD. I am salivating to see what GEFS looks like. It’s been a war now brewing between ops and ensembles. Canadian up next

I believe I saw something that said there was either 20 or 23 dropsondes infused into the GFS data

If this were the final solution I’d bet 10$ it would be tainted for sure even up here. I will take what I can get. These last two storms royally screwed me. I need at least a “decent” one

Lmfaooo

No biggie GFS only paints a 20.6” whopper right over the house here

Oh cmon now it’s been the ops for ensembles now for several runs. This is far from being ironed out

Damn man no big deal only 20.6” here good freakin god

1033 HP in a great spot for funneling purposes at the minimum

Maybe for you hahahahahaha j/k would like to see it suppressed some for wiggle room purposes but man if I’m referencing mby it is a beat down up this way

Icon skipped from 96 to 117. 117 LP is over Wilmington area. 120 up in the VA Capes area. This run is amped ala the ops runs of gfs and euro

If you look at the 500 map you can clearly see that the vort was more reminiscent of the icons 6z/12z runs. Energy is strong and closed over southwestern Missouri and more in line with guidance.

For what it’s worth icon looks like it’s going to be juiced. More backed to the southwest at 96. Snow breaking out over Virginia. High pressure also 2mb’s stronger

Been stuck for awhile at 57 on TT