Buddy1987
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Everything posted by Buddy1987
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Going great LOL. I see things are well here too. You have JI being the voice of reason, you have StormTracker having homicidal thoughts about Yoda and the cliffs have miles of jumpers. In all seriousness though, I do believe this will trend a little better for you all in the DC area and vicinity.
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Same here they got me at like 10-16'' that would be insane if it came to fruition.
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Ouch by 111 its over the Beltway and DC, so even further west than the GFS. Run started out good for the western areas of our forum so timing hopefully prevails.
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Man ICON with another shellacking for WNC/Foothills/Mountains. Consistent with its evolution. Low from MYR to justtt west of the Outer Banks.
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Icon closed at 500 at 69 but more south of the 12z position. I really like the placement of the High as well. More west, which would give it time hopefully in subsequent runs to drift east and really set up in a prime position for CAD
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More Miller A'ish on that look.
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Nice pick up. The NAM is really feeling the effects of that HP, forcing it to be pushed underneath. That should make the CNC folks happy seeing this. Just another plausible scenario. Nice confluence up top and vort is weaker this run.
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I honestly think we continue to see it tick upward in future runs as it comes into focus with more "short term" details, i.e. max precip placement, amounts, kinds of precip etc.
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I dont see why, as of right now, we cant get a nice 4-8/5-10 type deal before mixing potentially happens. I saw JI post the JMA in the Mid-Atlantic thread LOL. Would be nice if that actually came to fruition but I highly doubt that model ever scores a coup.
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Several takeaways that will need to closely be monitored over the next 48-72 hrs. 1. Strength and placement of the High Pressure up top. 2. Confluence over New England and how much it can kink back to the southwest to allow lowering of heights in advance of the system. 3. How quickly the main low takes to take on the kidney bean shape and transfer its energy to the coast. Most guidance I have seen today starts the transfer process in and around the Valdosta, GA area.
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Man that has a big signal for some serious ice accrual in the piedmont of NC i.e. Greensboro and that area. North of Columbia wiped off the map. I mean even half of that good lord.
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How about the New England storm? Is that kinked back to the southwest any to help with heights/confluence and such?
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Agreed there. Would be MAJOR ZR concerns even up this way as it gets cranking just south of DC.
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Buckeye if you could do a PBP that would be awesome. I have zero access to Euro products.
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Its just pumping the heights up way too much. Canadian can sometimes over amp things so there's that as well. Usually its thermals are about as good as the NAM's (Canadian can sometimes run a little too cold however). Moral of the story is confidence has increased significantly imo for a major winter storm for I-40 north and the cad areas of WNC.
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CMC def not going to make people happy... High pressure is 4mb's deeper however. Only thing that bothers me about the high pressure is that its a little weakling, sitting at 1020mb forecasted to get into the low 1040's in some instances. Going to take a lot for it to get there imo. 12Z 6Z
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@Disc what are your thoughts this far out regarding WAA overriding the cold dome over us? Any in house model data showing more of a pronounced warm nose or do we snow heavy and hard out here?
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CMC at 60 is negligible wrt changes. If anything s/w may be a little bit stronger. @wncsnow could see CMC going west this run; just a feeling before the run plays out.
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Canadian sure as hell is taking it’s time today
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LMAO a mean of 12.5'' here WOW
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This is one of those storms, based on the GFS depiction, that you hope comes in hott and heavy, code red, with the front end thump to cash in on snow totals.
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High pressure pushing down nicely this run as well. A little west of 6z
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And at 84 it is more pronounced. This may be a tick better of a run maybe not by much but baby steps are needed.
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Need the confluence just a tick west instead of pushing down into the Gulf of Maine.
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Nothing of significance imo through 54 maybe just a tad less sharp at 60
