Buddy1987

Based on the presentation at 54 this looks to be pretty far south comparing it to 6z. Now I say that and then by the end of the run who knows with how the low behaves as it turns north

42 hrs 500 continues to look better with energy in the Plains

LOL man Colm Feore is a creepy dude.

Nam trying to go full Mark Wahlburg Perfect Storm into Cape Cod with a 972 beast prior to our event

Random thing I’m noticing at 36. Nam is trying go Perfect Storm into Cape Cod. 972 right off the coast. That would be something

12z Nam at 26 looks a little flatter and not as stout as 6z. Let’s see where this thing goes

Rise and shine, storm trackers! Two of our shortwaves of interest are now onshore, including the primary system which is making landfall in WA/OR this morning. 12z RAOBs should have the northern wave well-sampled, and should have a solid first look at the second wave. Twitter · 42 mins ago Jack Sillin (@JackSillin) · Twitter https://twitter.com/JackSillin Rise and shine, storm trackers! Two of our shortwaves of interest are now onshore, including the primary system which is making landfall in WA/OR this morning. 12z RAOBs should have the northern wave well-sampled, and should have a solid first look at the second wave. Twitter · 42 mins ago

Jack Sillin (@JackSillin) · Twitter https://twitter.com/JackSillin 12z RAOBS coming in with higher heights than 00z GFS across the W US, though less near the shortwave entering WA/OR compared to the downstream ridge. Also note lower ON heights. To me this suggests we might see today's guidance slow the storm down a bit and possibly wobble SE. Twitter · 19 mins ago

If you look at the 500 map on any website you desire, you will want to look at two pieces really. The energy that’s diving out of MN/Dakotas as the main piece of energy is around the gulf coast (models seem to be pretty set on this now) and then the confluence up above New England. The energy over New England basically squashes the heights and allows the system to be more south rather than turning due north and northwestward. Once that energy dives it’s a matter of timing. You have the euro that’s super aggressive with it and then you have some of the other solutions namely the GEFS that thinks it happens later and also allows the storm to take more of an east/northeasterly direction because of factors listed above The other factors is the NAO domain. Had that been a little further to the west than it is the storm would never have a chance to take a storm track like you’re seeing on some of these model runs. Now that makes some happy and others not so much. I can tell you WNC/SVA guys love this look and it’s classic major onslaught of heavy snow, as the flow comes out of the south southeast and piles up copious amounts of moisture along the blue ridge.

Euro in my opinion continues to struggle with low pressure placement, as the system becomes occluded and stacked, it is having a hard time depicting where to ultimately place the “L” I think this gets smoothed out within the next 24 hours and would expect to see it jump southeast some more in line with other guidance. Time will tell but that’s what my gut is telling me. There’s a lot going on in the atmosphere between the confluence to our north and the energy diving down forcing the low to feel it and get tugged back to the west/northwest. I think by tomorrow mornings 6z runs we should def have a pretty clear understanding as to what is going to happen.

Yes and no. Time stamps matter but in this instance you have to somewhat adjust the time stamp because GFS is hauling a** comparatively to some of the guidance. So realistically there’s not much difference in the end when it comes to it. Maybe 4-6 hours. Euro is by far the most amped at this juncture. There’s been a clear trend with long range meso models and the GFS

We talked about this yesterday. Seen some names pop up I haven’t seen in a good while. Even when I look at browsing I see someone like @Pilotwx I know something significant is on the map.

Boy one of them is very wrong. Placement of the low over CHS or over CLT will most definitely have some major implications. Kinda odd to see Euro go against almost all guidance for last nights runs.

Damn the GEFS is really far east comparing even the last run once it gets to VA Beach area.

IMO CMC on somewhat of an island at this moment. Believe its still playing catch up. If anything there is a no doubt trend in all the globals tonight, which is encouraging to see.

Very noticeable looking at it on TT. Flatter flow out ahead of it is def helping.

Man what a smoke show yet another run. 2ft again. The ULL swings right underneath me and THAT is a classic major snowstorm for western VA

ICON for sure is worlds different at 96 and 99 at 500. Pretty impressive.

HR 90 ICON is south of 18z position. HP wedged in a tick better as well. Low pressure over SAV

ICON surface map at 69 really doesnt show much change with the LP in southern MS

my eye will be on that HP to ensure it doesnt end up sliding to the east too quickly in subsequent runs.

Man its like a late 90s surface map with that look.

im on TT so you are ahead of me im only out to 42 but out to 63 on 850 map

500 maps are behind by a little but surface at 54 has very little change involved. MAYBE a tick east southeast with the low