Buddy1987

Going to be higher for sure upon initial push no doubt about it. Like the trends currently. Every little bit helps

Seeing Eric Webb talk about NAM temps busting on the high side in real time. Very happy to hear that

All these pasta dishes make me proud with Italian blood! I went down to my local Italian restaurant and got me a meatball sub. Now it’s almost time for my Bills to crush the Patriots and open the Skrewball and slam some beers down. homemade beef vegetable soup for tomorrow in crockpot

It’s coming man steady 1 degree drop an hour now up this way.

33/19 dew has really started to plummet last hour here

Where’s the dotted line?!

I’m curious about the high pressure as well. Is it modeled too weak or is it stronger as of right now compared to the forecast

I have that worry about the Nam as well but since the upgrade it has been an absolute putrid model. It used to be amped and juiced and now it’s as dry as the Sahara. I don’t buy it’s precip or Synoptics not one bit. The one thing I do buy tho is it’s thermals and THAT is what is making me have some reservations. With the low cutting to Dollywood that of course is going to screw up the thermals so it’s almost like a wash in some way. Idk man My goal post was 6”. May have to temper that down to 4” with the expectation I would be pleasantly surprised in the end. Down to 34/24 and it feels bone chilling out there.

37/26 out. Been waiting for some of those drier dews to funnel down but thus far the dew actually rose a degree from a couple hours ago. Good to see temp hanging in there actually just checked national view of dew points and central/northern VA is down to 12 for a dew. Still incredible to me they will get shafted seeing that just because of the trajectory. I still think there’s a surprise mixed in here. Seen it time and time again when the models would scour out that low level cold too soon but this is a beast of a storm

That was a doozy from the Euro WOW!!

Any idea how UKIE’s thermals normally fare? I’ve never really paid much attention to them

This is awesome!! Appreciate you getting back to me yesterday. I know the globals are too close to game time at this juncture but the GFS has been overly consistent out this way for days on end, never wavering. I do fear that LLJ as well however and am hoping we can cash in on that initial thump of WAA before any derailment of the mid levels become a factor to change over to sleet.

@Disc take that in a heartbeat. Hard to bet against the GFS this year and has been the most consistent.

Man that is just straight weenie weather porn. 1-2” an hour type rates as it passes over all of us. GFS almost out of range now tho as we draw closer but it seriously has been rock steady for a good 4/5/6 days

Nam imo made some important steps at 500 between 21-27 with not pumping heights as much compared to 6z and a subsequent track a bit to the east with the secondary. Issue is it still wants to drive that LLJ up over the majority of us if you want an all snow type event and also drive the primary further north than some of the other guidance. That’s something I’ll be monitoring but it is a good step in the right direction to blend in with what the globals have been spitting out for days.

I would love to see the sleet graphics. It would be something fierce

Yea for me seeing those changes at 500 I don’t really care what the surface ends up showing because it’ll still correct. It was pretty noticeable too between 21-27 what changes were happening downstream

Yea at 21 on the 500 map the heights aren’t as pumped up as they were. Really hoping for a good run here.

12K Nam at 15 may be a tad bit more flat. So far I like what I’m actually seeing but knowing the Nam that doesn’t mean anything little quicker with precip push as well

28 here in and around ROA area. Best part about anything in the end is we had some sort of antecedent conditions and it wasn’t 72 and sunny LOL

I’m literally laying here on my side squinting you proved me wrong it isn’t much better in the end after I selected by region and zoomed in. Just have to hope it’s wrong. Most globals continued to look the same and have been rock steady for run on run on run

Well 6z Nam(s) weren’t nearly as bad as the 0z debacle. Adjusted its evolution some with that primary

@BornAgain13I wouldnt even look at the Canadian if I were you man. There's nothing positive that came out of it. Cut your snow totals in half and has the freezing precip vs rain line very close.