Buddy1987
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Everything posted by Buddy1987
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As if this isn’t already complex and confusing enough.. if the NAM projection came to fruition and the storm slowed way down and then phased later on would that technically be better for the area because the cold air may become entrenched even more?
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Dang nice pull there! Very similar. I concur with everyone as well thus far Baja low really hanging back to the southwest this run and I’m only at 35.
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Baja low at 30 looks like it wants to get comfy and bury itself out there. 50/50 maybe slightly better?
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Euro proves right it will be a literal war zone for many.
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Euro an unmitigated disaster with 1.35” of Freezing Rain down this way.
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At least for our area, weaker system would also still give us a sizable snowstorm plus any appreciable dendritic growth along with solid ratios is a major win. I’ll believe the gfs when I see the euro trend toward it.
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This is what I was alluding to earlier when panic city struck over the GGEM. The models will normally around this time frame start picking up on the intensity of cad and adjust more often than not. I know you know this of course but I really have a good feeling about this storm.
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I’m surprised you’re not jumping all over the gfs here. That was a beat down at least with the WAA. That’s how our area can win at least.
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We in SW VA LOVE the GFS! @Bob Chilllooking nice.
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Progression of the ridging doesn't dig as much this go which is nice to see minimum. This is by hr 78. Everything pushed eastward by a good bit compared to 12z.
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Not sure I love the Ridge being more stout at 54 and continuing that theme here.
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Not sure I love the ridge out west at 54 to start here.
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Or it's because NCEP or NWS doesn't even weigh it in their forecast discussions.
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I don't have soundings but surface verbatim has freezing rain down to around Columbia SC and then on over into NE GA.
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RGEM is textbook placement of the HP over north of NY/Canada border. Thing of beauty.
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For what it's worth 18Z RGEM has a mega sleet bomb for majority of the Carolinas. Trying hard to come down with authority for snow north of 460. Beautiful 1043MB high parked up north of the NY/Canada border.
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ICON was GROSS by the end of it. But then again it's the ICON so I don't weigh it too much.
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Maybe this is the stage they start recognizing the density of the cold air and adjust accordingly for this? I like how the orientation/axis of the precip on the ICON also agrees with NAM and really GFS as well if we're going to be bringing it into the equation, in anticipation of 18z.
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Here is link to track the Recon mission happening southwest of CA coast if anyone wants to track! https://www.flightaware.com/live/flight/TEAL74
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Inside of 60 I actually think those were meaningful changes. You can see the trajectory of the precip shield also positively changed. That's a win at this juncture.
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I actually like what I saw for when the Nam is worth a damn prior to 60 hrs. I consider those meaningful changes based on what you and I outlined. Pretty sick CAD signal as well. Deep deep down the spine of the apps is cool to see.
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I agree. I feel like streams aren't interacting as much and the dome of confluence is pushing down more so at the 57 hr mark.
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If 18Z Nam were to continue to progress like this the dome above any baja energy would almost surely have to force the precip to undercut. It was trending nicely up until around the 54 hr mark on 12Z and then heights rose pretty dramatically so we'll see if we lose again.
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Very nice push to the confluence over the Midwest as well. Hopefully its a good thing to come here this evening.
