Berlin1926

But still Mid-Atlantic region if not DC.

Over an inch in Midlothian and neighborhood roads covered. Getting slippery. Visibility less than .25 mile.

Base reflectivity light but steady. Question is do we have time to moisten things up.

Its up there just evaporating before getting down...

Wow! Im up in Brandermill and not even a flake!

Its definitely up there but its so dry its evaporating. We need this to continue for a few hours to hopefully squeeze out some flakes. Poor Raleigh looks dry period.

So close yet so far away.

It's 22 in Midlothian Wow. Its dry cold

Cool tool. Here it is at 4p.

Strangest forecasting this close to a storm I think ive ever seen in 30 years. This is bizarro world.

Now, far north and west will it go?

This seems very plausible.

Chesterfield Co (South of Richmond) – Why 3–4” Could Still Be a High-Impact Event (Model Context) After digging through the latest guidance I think expectations for those of us south of Richmond (Chesterfield County) need to be framed around impacts, not just raw snowfall totals. Current model consensus: NBM (latest cycle): Places Chesterfield solidly in the yellow band, generally ~3–6 inches, with a very tight gradient immediately north toward the blue shading. GEFS / EPS ensembles: Continue to show a coastal-favored solution, with the mean low track east of Hatteras, but with enough spread that the NW cutoff remains sharp. Operational GFS / Euro: Both still support a rapidly deepening coastal low, but differ on how far inland the deformation band pivots before pulling east. WPC probabilities: Suggest moderate-impact potential extending inland to near or just south of Richmond, even where warning-level snowfall probabilities are lower. What stands out across all guidance is that this is not a benign snowfall setup, even for locations that end up on the lower end of totals. Even if Chesterfield ends up closer to 3–4 inches, the environment matters: Strong pressure falls associated with rapid cyclogenesis Sustained winds 20–25 mph with gusts near 30–35 mph inland Very cold antecedent air mass Snow falling during peak wind fields That combination produces blowing snow, reduced visibility, drifting, and rapid road deterioration — very different from a calm, overnight 3–4” event. Synoptically, this fits the broader pattern we’ve been tracking: Strong Arctic high to the north Deep coastal low developing off the Carolinas Tight thermal and precipitation gradient Classic sharp NW cutoff zone Small track changes still matter, but impact does not scale linearly with accumulation in this setup. Bottom line for Chesterfield: I’m not expecting a historic storm here, but I am expecting a high-impact winter weather event, particularly Saturday night into early Sunday, even if totals remain modest. Interested to hear how others along the I-95 / Route 360 corridor are interpreting the latest NBM, EPS, and GEFS trends — especially given how tight the gradients are.

I did that too and got scolded on the MA forum. I asked for an interpretation of the latest NBM. Interesting response. Tempered nit cliff diving.h