Great Snow 1717

...numerous people are in denial...

..it is why analog forecasting fails more often than it succeeds...

We need to start a Go Fund Me campaign to get Ray out of Essex County!!....it may be our only hope!

Are you sure it wasn't old ladies whistling as you ran by???

Mark Margavage's Weather Discussion Page 29 Julai 2022 · Winter is Coming (whether you like it or not) I’ve identified a data point for the upcoming winter forecast… As I watch the tropics for development, it has come to my attention that 4 times in past 30 years has the Atlantic had no named storm activity between July 3rd and August 3rd: 1993, 1999, 2000 and 2009. Given the huge amount of Saharan Dust that has been blown over the Atlantic(seen on satellite imagery), it seems extremely unlikely that anything will develop over the next several days. So, assuming no storms develop, we can use past years as an indicator for how the Winter might turn out. Think back to 1993-1994, 1999-2000, 2000-2001, and 2009-2010. How do you remember those winters? ~Meteorologist Mark Margavage

Agree

2015 is flurries compared to what they have experienced out west..

It's been a non winter in much of the eastern half of the country..

He is a warmista of the highest order...

People aren't in tuned with nature as much as they once were because people spend far more time indoors than they use to...

Those Noah maps correctly predicted THE FLOOD

Same applies in sports especially in baseball with the over use of radar gun readings...some scouts rely far too much on radar gun readings rather than actual performance. They ignore performance and other factors. It is laziness and arrogance.....it is the equivalent of staring at models but not actually "finding" more good pitchers.

Agree, far too many mets do not actually forecast weather, they just show model output.

I see the same in sports.

The old school mets back in the day often mentioned the bolded. They were far more reliant on pattern recognition than the models. Same applies to scouting in sports, far too many scouts rely on projection than what a player is.

Two factors work in his favor: 1) He doesn't over analysis things. 2) He doesn't live in SNE which means he doesn't go searching for an outcome that he wants.

Debate it with Eric fisher... https://www.cbsnews.com/boston/news/warm-november-lackluster-winter/

34 at my home in Methuen...

Friends and relatives live in Hampstead that seems very high....

Let me rephrase...The Pope had the BEST take on what was in store for winter from November on...

You had a good "take" on the winter from November on.

You're the one that has expressed frustration with the winter. I had very low expectations for the winter....no frustration at my end. I long ago accepted/knew that it wasn't going to be all that good of a winter.

...the fact is the warmth in November was a harbinger of things to come...and the warmth was downplayed by some individuals

A staggering low figure...