Great Snow 1717

16 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Historically bad December in terms of winter for most of the country and Canada, rivals the most epic fail starts off all time

impossible to argue otherwise..

5 hours ago, bluewave said:

The record warm pattern in Canada got started last May. The record SSTs in the WPAC generated the forcing which lead to historic ridge. Similar pattern to this December. 
 

 

Correct....but some people overlooked/downplayed what was taking place in Canada while putting together their 23-24 winter forecast..

4 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Great post. We can also add Newfoundland and Labrador to that list.

 

..no one should be surprised by the well above normal warmth this past fall and the early part of winter..

Just now, LibertyBell said:

It seems as though stronger el ninos are becoming more common but so are longer duration la ninas.

....and some people are in total denial...

10 hours ago, MJO812 said:

DT on board with a big pattern change 

....the last sentence is the key takeaway...lol

19 hours ago, Snowstorms said:

 

Canada is NOT cold right now lol. Most major cities are experiencing record breaking warmth this December. Not even 2015 was this warm. And this is "our source region" for cold out east. Most places are near or above freezing. 

See forecasts below for this upcoming week. These cities, more than 90-95% of the time, experience a white Christmas or at the very least some decent cold which is no where to be found this year. If you scroll down you'll find the averages too and will note how incredibly warm it is. 

Calgary, AB: 

https://weather.gc.ca/city/pages/ab-52_metric_e.html

Edmonton, AB:

https://weather.gc.ca/city/pages/ab-50_metric_e.html

Regina, SK:

https://weather.gc.ca/city/pages/sk-32_metric_e.html

Saskatoon, SK:

https://weather.gc.ca/city/pages/sk-40_metric_e.html

Winnipeg, MB

https://weather.gc.ca/city/pages/mb-38_metric_e.html 

Thompson (north Manitoba) 

https://weather.gc.ca/city/pages/mb-34_metric_e.html

Moosonee, ON (right by Hudson Bay)

https://weather.gc.ca/city/pages/on-113_metric_e.html 

One of the top posts in this thread!....Canada has been en fuego for months.

The source region(Canada) for cold/cool air in the US has warmed so it only stands to reason that the US has also become warmer. And the warming across Canada and the US has led to a change in weather patterns.

https://www.canada.ca/en/environment-climate-change/services/environmental-indicators/temperature-change.html

https://www.ctvnews.ca/climate-and-environment/canada-faces-green-christmas-as-el-nino-follows-warm-summer-head-climatologist-says-1.6696529

...towards the end of the article Phillips makes a great point about El Ninos  being different now because of worldwide warming..

On 12/21/2023 at 3:41 AM, LibertyBell said:

see my reasoning in my above post, this is not arctic air, it is merely the influence of cloud cover and rainfall.  It's why I don't like talk of  "average temperatures" without further context as to the source regions of where this air is actually coming from-- and it's not the arctic thats for sure lol

 

You understood perfectly why I wrote "good luck lol"...unlike some dude named Teapot or whatever his name is who announced to the world that he was adding me to his ignore list lol..... I can't even begin to tell you the impact  it has had on my life...

6 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

The two worst investments I've made the past few years

1) A snow shovel - my girlfriend is from Florida and moved up here in like 2017. She had no idea there were shovels specific for snow and used a garden shovel. 

2) Mac Jones jersey 

Can I return both?

..or hope that Jones has a revival with another team. Someone I know sold his Mayfield (Cleveland) jersey to a Tampa Bay fan..

as for the snow shovel, sell it on Craigslist or Facebook Market Place..

10 minutes ago, weathafella said:

This year, the vast majority of CONUS will NOT have a white Christmas.   I wonder if anyone has a database nationwide and what we’re seeing this year is a record....

The Weather Chanell this morning reported that if things remain the same in regards to snowcover that it will be a record.....consdering the record warmth that is likely to occur it is extremely likely that Christmas 2023 will  establish a new record.

On 12/18/2023 at 10:06 PM, raindancewx said:

If this verifies, it's pretty hard for me to see any area of the northern US verifying cold, or even near average for Dec-Feb. Well...Alaska.

! agree

On 12/15/2023 at 1:05 PM, SnoSki14 said:

Eventually we may have to look at the worst case scenario warming outcomes if this year is any indication 

I agree..

1 hour ago, Terpeast said:

My ignore list just got longer

thank you!..it is an honor to be on your ignore list!!

3 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Give me a massive January and February, but by March I'm ready for deep spring and summer. I want 60's, 70's and by April give me the 80's and by May it's time for severe weather in the plains.

FYP

14 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Apparently the last White Christmas in Boston was 2009?   They average one 19% of the time but I was suprised by that.

I guess the source was using 1" OTG by 7AM

A meaningless fact but a little interesting

 

That is correct. 2017 missed out because there wasn't an inch of snow on the ground as of 7AM. 

1 minute ago, GaWx said:

But from MidAtlantic south, where many of us live, it has been no more than slightly warmer than normal MTD.

Also, fwiw, here's the latest CFS forecast for Jan: blue area is mainly 1-3 F BN and that's based on cooler 1984-2009 climo:

 

good luck lol

1 minute ago, jbenedet said:

That's part of it, but the big piece I'm looking at is if the high precip stays out of canada - no man pack develops to our north/west, which portends risk of an earlier end to winter; i.e. take down March/April expectations.

As you know, Canada has been en fuego...

36 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

We want the nino to be stronger... given the fact it is in conflict with the pacific base state which will mute the impact of the nino, frankly my bigger worry as we head into the heart of winter is that the nino doesn't have enough influence and we get too much ridging in the central pacific leading to more -PNA than we want in the mid atlantic.  That equation can still work further north of course.  To get the longwave impacts of a moderate nino we probably need the raw SST anomalies to be in the strong bordering on super nino territory given the mitigating factors around it.  The last thing I am worried about wrt a winter fail is that the nino will be too strong.  

...pass 24/7/365 on that...

31 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

this is a tremendous point, and as Bluewave posted earlier, in Australia this is behaving more like a la nina, with the high rainfall totals in Queensland.  We want something more akin to 2015-16.

As things stand now December is likely to be the warmest December on record in the CONUS.....and it is very likely to be the least "snowiest" white Christmas on record across the CONUS....

Helluva  way to run a winter...

Just now, HoarfrostHubb said:

Not everywhere

it was here ...so bad that numerous landscapers have gotten out of the snowplowing business...neighbors are having a difficult time hiring someone to do plowing this winter..

1 hour ago, jbenedet said:

How do you guys define a ratter?

Serious question.

see winter 22-23....a rat's ratter of a winter..

24 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Spotted in Newmarket today. 

With that size and strength...just might be the Pats 2024 1st round draft pick!!

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

Are you the least bit familiar with the concept of page hits???

1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said:

this pattern is about as far from last year's at it can possibly be. persistence doesn't really make any sense here

..meaning the "results" not the specific pattern...

Just now, NittanyWx said:

I don't disagree here, but persistence is a view and sometimes it rewards a forecaster who has a healthy dose of skepticism.   It works until it doesnt.  

Correct...

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

The old saying is persistence fails when the stakes are the highest. Besides, this current pattern doesn't look anything like last year so the only "persistence" is the sensible wx of little to no snow and AN temps. There's no reason to actually stick with persistence if evidence is starting to mount that it's coming to an end.

......but time will tell if it actually comes to an end....and how long the end lasts for..that is the key. Does it end for a week or does it end for 3-5 weeks...