Great Snow 1717

7 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

wow are 3 hour delays somewhat new? I never remember a 3 hr delay, just 60 min, 90 min, and 2 hr. 

I never had a delay in all of my 16 years in school....

34 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Snow or torch next week?

Torch

...a patchy light coating in The Winter Wonderland---AKA Methuen...

1 minute ago, Layman said:

Due to data overload?  Poor model programming?  Overly dynamic weather patterns?  Something or "some things" is affecting the longer term accuracy it seems.  It would be interesting to get a solid grasp on what that, or those things are.

 

The constant tinkering known as "upgrades"...

14 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Yeah I'd imagine one must have a ton of different links and data sources saved that you're constantly checking daily. But ultimately, just assessing model guidance without accounting for the current state and understanding what is driving things...you're going to have an awfully difficult time in the accuracy department. 

Exactly!!!!!!

45 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I've never engaged this fraud event.

I never said you were engaged lol

1 minute ago, ineedsnow said:

Ya it's close and definitely don't think it would be 10 to 1

notice the 0.1 right over Ray's home in Methuen...

7 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

It's even close here but not enough yet

..take notice of the Fire Hose sign in the background ..as in the famed  atmospheric fire hose that is all the rage lately...Max liked to drop subtle weather hints...

57 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

LOL at the weekend TV Met crew I watched while at the gym on Saturday. All of them highlighted a snowstorm on Friday. They’re as bad as we are. 

The quest for ratings has ruined on air weather forecasting...

There should be a fund raiser to bring back some of the TV mets from the past!

"Dollars for Burbank"

20 minutes ago, metagraphica said:

wat?

in fairness he did not mention in what part of the world the radar looked bad.....coulda been Death Valley

2 hours ago, weatherwiz said:

This I am not so sure about. 

If we get a -PDO/-AMO combo that may be the case. IIRC, doesn't -PDO phases tend to coincide with dryer than average conditions across the CONUS? 

I agree....

Boston is now just 5 days away from hitting the 1000 day mark since its last snowfall of greater than 4 inches...

1 minute ago, Cobalt said:

We've flipped a coin and hit tails 5+ consecutive times so we must be due for a stretch of heads soon.. sounds like a case of gambler's fallacy 

I'm  fine as long a player on the Jets isn't calling the coin toss...

Just now, WinterWolf said:

Of course we don’t know exactly when…but the longer we go, the more certain it will be that it flips.  

could flip to normal precip...could flip to slightly below normal precip...no one can say for certain

Just now, WinterWolf said:

But it does most times. 

..but no one can accurately predict when that may take place..if that is the case we are owed about 150 inches of snow...

Just now, WinterWolf said:

Ok..maybe so.  And if that’s the case, then we are due for some reversing for this winter. Let’s go. 
 

Reservoirs here aren’t an issue; I guess due to the over abundance of rain we had prior. 

maybe so???? lol....the "weather" doesn't realize it has to or needs  to balance the books....

3 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

He’s not wrong—this has been an all timer of a fall dry period. How many years do you remember dozens of fires going up in November?

I have .90” of rain since August 20. It’s incredible. 
 

From a few days ago 

..it's not even possible to debate that...

2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Historical?  That’s funny.  

..it's been the driest fall on record at numerous locations....so that isn't historical??

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

page hits....

5 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

It might. But it will definitely get more wet than it’s been. We were bound for a dry stretch…I mean we were killing it in the rain/moisture department for a year plus.  It was pretty easy to see the drying out coming.  

This goes far beyond a "drying out"....this is an all time  historical drought for the fall across much of the northeast. 

1 hour ago, Allsnow said:

It’s amazing how many gulf systems failed to produce rain up here this year 

Feels much like hitters did when they had to face Pedro Martinez when he was in his prime....no bueno...

43 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Our cool downs go from way above normal to just a bit above normal now. Can’t sustain anything below for long stretches 

I agree....reinforcing cold fronts have become become an urban legend of sorts...I miss the days of the Alberta Clipper...they usually did not bring much in the way of snow but often brought windy conditions and colder air..

19 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Lol…the pattern/Pacific needs to shuffle around. There’s cold..just not around here currently.  

sort of like saying if the Titanic had not hit the iceberg...

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

I'm not spouting hyperbole, just don't like what I see heading into December. Feels like the same shit from last few winters. 

.....the deniers will disagree...

3 hours ago, Torch Tiger said:

back in the day we'd (SNE) usually at least see a little snow in the air Oct/early Novie.  That seems to have become more of a rarity

That is correct....flurries in Oct and Nov were more common. As was the ground beginning to freeze.