Great Snow 1717

14 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Debate is one thing, just automatically being dismissive is another. Plenty of folks like @Allsnowand @bluewavethat I have had great discussion with. But the crap being offered by this persistence crowd is another thing entirely. Someone simply mentions that the long range looks more wintery shouldn't be met with "haven't you learned anything"...that is simply close minded, incendiary crap. Now, if you want to put the breaks on and suggest that perhaps guidance may be rushing the retrograde of the Canadian ridging....then sure. Possible. 

But hasn't persistence won out since fall of 2022???

32 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

Only 10 more days until our next threat. New Year's Grinch?

Start the thread!

43 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

6z op gfs looks great

looks almost as great as the Giants future does with Daniel Jones as QB...

1 minute ago, jbenedet said:

Kind of an irony where the simplest forecast, again, would have been the best.

All the rest is BS.

We’re tracking somewhere between 2006-2007 and 2015-2016 snowfall wise in the CONUS. 

The former was a moderate El Niño, the latter a super El Niño. We’re tracking between those El Niño conditions today; strong El Niño. Shocker! Nope not at all if you can tune out all the noise.

Take those years, average the outcome, run it from this point. That’s your best guess for high end snow/cold outcome from here. Hedge in favor of less than that baseline with +1C surface temps vs 06/07; 15/16 average.

I agree, the simplest forecast  would have been the way to go considering the likelihood of this being a high end moderate to strong El Nino. Some people downplayed the possibility of El Nino "train wrecking" the winter because it wasn't what they wanted to "hear"..

Just now, codfishsnowman said:

There was a messy one right after...a 

 

I kinda miss the occasional clippers, the increasing high clouds through dimming sunshine is winter's beauty at some of it's finest. The modest amount of powdery snow that follows makes it even better.

Better chance of seeing a T-Rex roaming around your back yard than having an "old school" clipper system.... 

8 minutes ago, rclab said:

 

Good morning TB2014, CW and everyone else. For almost 10 years I’ve tried to internalize some weather knowledge by becoming, at least, acronym fluent. Only limited success. However what keeps me alive are the golden nuggets such as T B dropped in his post. ‘Moose Fart Maine’ I couldn't resist the look up and found something even better. Perhaps passed around and enjoyed with a favorite beverage might ease many of the forums current concerns. Stay well all, as always ….

 

.....next year you can sell those at THEIR get together!!

14 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Hey look on the bright side-Maybe we can break some all-time low records on North American snow cover over the next 5 days.

 

C'mon man you are RAINING on their parade ...

Far too many people here have let themselves become  emotionally and mentally attached to something(the weather) that they have no control over.  Some people set themselves up to be massively disappointed long before the approach of winter.

11 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Merry Christmas!

 

7 minutes ago, ariof said:

I have no doubt that he is warming up in the bullpen...the greatest weather closer of all time.

1 minute ago, weathafella said:

Really?   Damn I’ve been sleeping since my college days…

.....I'm glad my post has awaken you!...since it is the holiday season I am waiving the fee!!...

2 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

More warming to come and this El Niño has very clearly not peaked yet. Again, the peak probably doesn’t happen until late December or January. I don’t think we are done with the WWBs yet, the next one/ones are not going to be as strong as this one is though. I would also not discount region 1+2 warming again once this KW surfaces off the SA coast. The warm pool is now completely east of the dateline. Per Paul Roundy: “The extent of warm water higher than 31C is higher east of the dateline today than in any historic event. In part, it's because this El Niño was associated with weaker initial WWBs (which cool the ocean locally due to evaporation). That meant that this WWB had more warm water to work with.”

Big subsurface warming:
 

No one should be surprised .....

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think everyone understands that an identical pattern wouldn't be as cold....however, an identical pattern also would probably produce larger storms with more moisture.

....I disagree. I think some people would expect the results to be very similar....BTW if you know anyone looking to have their driveway plowed or business parking lot plowed this winter in Methuen advise them to find someone as soon as possible. Several Methuen area landscaping companies have decided to not offer snowplowing this winter.  

9 hours ago, weathafella said:

That winter was during my freshman year in college in upstate NY.  Snow and cold dominated.  

..and nearly 60 years ago....a lot has changed since then...

20 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Thanksgiving looks beautiful in SNE.

What a beaut.

Just now, jbenedet said:

 

PSM hit 40 this afternoon. 
 

-7 for a polar airmass
 

 

...some people here are searching Draft Kings to find out which team Polar Airmass is playing....they want to take the opponent +7

5 hours ago, jbenedet said:

Turkey Day turning into DSD in SE locations.

Looks nice actually, mid 50's for SNE.

but,but I was told it was going to be a cold Thanksgiving Day....

1 hour ago, WinterWolf said:

I have a Swiss bank that I deal with…I’ll get ya hooked up.

You're just trying to lure Torch Tiger, myself and others to a clandestine location...once we arrive we will be booked on charges....I envision a Han Solo like state of being frozen in Carbonite...

Just now, WinterWolf said:

I have a Swiss bank that I deal with…I’ll get ya hooked up.

just better not be creme filled chocolate swiss rolls...

33 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

Wolfie gonna start making arrests for free speech

I have to give credit to the town of Billerica for the new hs that opened a couple of years ago....Top notch!!

Just now, WinterWolf said:

Ok ..that’s pretty funny! 

just have my reward money ready when I show up with the culprits!!

Just now, WinterWolf said:

See, you’re again missing the point.  I explained previously, but you seem so intent on making me out to be something I’m not. that you seem to have glossed over it. 
 

Yesterday we had an issue where a couple different posters were lying about what modeling was showing, and were just plain misleading, and were lies.  Posts that are lies. Posts that are intentionally ingenuous, should certainly be removed.
 

Dissenting posts, or points of view that are different, if rooted in fact, and aren’t intentionally meant to mislead, are completely fine, and not what I was talking about.  But somehow some people combine these two different ideas into one, and then label me as ACATT, or not wanting different points of view? Nothing could be further from the truth.
 

I genuinely hope I explained it clear enough now, so that things aren’t confused, and conflated anymore. 

...perhaps they just aren't all that good at interpreting model output??.....

Just now, WinterWolf said:

Who has pushed/or is pushing a cold and snowy winter? That is Yet Another lie.  I said I feel an average winter will end up being the case. That’s my call on what the upcoming winter will be.   So now you have it directly from me, no snowy and cold all the time.  Will it be snowy and cold at times this winter?  Sure it will.  But nobody(at least not me) Is calling for ACATT.  
 

So just don’t twist what I’m saying. 
 

Their posts taken down. lol, what were you thinking? 

...so why can't the posts remain for other members of the forum to read??

2 hours ago, WinterWolf said:

It’s a different vibe/look altogether, in just about every aspect.  That’s why these trolls who are pushing the same old narrative, need to be taken down, and banned for a while. Because what they are saying is downright ingenuous now.  And it should not be tolerated. 

Taken down???..how so???

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I don't see anyone from the SNE crew that should be suspended...even snowman in the main thread I think does a good job of pulling in info. I have no issue with it....we are all human and have a vested interest one way or another.

 I learned a long time ago that is best to not have a vested interest in the weather. I'd feel differently if I owned a business that was dependent on certain types of weather for the business to be successful.