Great Snow 1717

39 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

I'm really close to cancel winter 

...but you said the GFS looked great...

4 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

the budding on my trees pretty much proves it.

the daffodils also seem to want to come out lol

....there are signs everywhere..

Just now, weatherwiz said:

For at least 3 weeks? That's an awful long time. 

...a pattern change that lasts for 7-10 days and then reverts back to the previous pattern isn't a real pattern change. A pattern change in my book needs to have some staying power. Three weeks at a minimum. 

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

People don't acknowledge a change until they shovel...what is getting "pushed back" and "can kicked" is the imminent chance for significant snowfall in said poster's BY.

I will acknowledge a pattern change when there is a pattern change that lasts for at least 3 weeks..  

15 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Did I ever say climate change was not taking place?   It always kills me that whenever a joke of a story is mocked it means the person mocking it doesn't believe in climate change. Hell a troll can say something like "the climate will warm 30° in 2 decades" and people calling bs will be told they dont believe in climate change. The whole point is the inability to separate weather events from climate in the mainstream is ridiculous. 

a joke of a story??...

9 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Did I say it was incorrect? This article was just a climate change piece based on a warm December weather pattern. Other than listing the Christmas temperatures there really wasn't data in it. I just thought it amusing that after the 3rd snowiest winter on record...and 7 years since Minneapolis has even had a below avg snow season...that alarm bells are ringing because of a snowless Christmas and warm December in minneapolis lol. It would be especially funny if they end up with another above avg snow season in the end. 

That San Diego lady though. Lmao. Who spends $900 on a winter coat? It's too bad that she hasn't worn it. The 8° that minneapolis had in November must have reminded her of San Diego winters of yore. But props to her for running 5 miles in a tshirt on Christmas day when it rained all day in minneapolis. Hope her shirt wasn't white!

......face it climate change is taking place...

1 minute ago, michsnowfreak said:

Such a reputable news source! Im glad the mayor of minneapolis is sounding the alarm bells after a snowless Christmas. The world must be ending. I hope he was not too alarmed last winter when minneapolis saw its third snowiest winter on record. And since we have 4 more months of snow to go in the midwest, hopefully that lady's sensible purchase of a $900 winter coat is put to use.

point out where the article is incorrect...

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

And Breslow's first.

C'mon man they were all in on Othani and Yamamoto...

3 hours ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Fantastic, it’s already raining here even though the forecast said after 4 PM.

The joys of futurecast!!..

1 minute ago, LibertyBell said:

fungus, mold and moss? sounds about right lol

..all things found in a dumpster!

4 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

The weather is awful, we have fungus, mold, moss (my garage roof and my neighbor's roof and the house after that are turning green!), etc, growing everywhere and it's destroying my nose lol.  Anything but rain, I dont care what the temperatures suck all the humidity and moisture into space I don't want it here.

 

No it really cant get any worse, we need weather modification  asap, I would be fine with a device that sucked moisture into space and prevented systems from getting stuck in place.

A Record-Breaking Warm, Snowless Winter Confounds Midwesterners – DNyuz

18 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

I’m gonna be that guy again, but current guidance shows BL warmth during that 4-6th timeframe. It’s not prohibitive to snow, but def limiting. POP also highest where surface is warmest. 
 

Still a ways away but as I see it, not enough to get excited about until/unless some big changes on the ensembles.

Agree, it's going to take some major changes to turn that into something that is a lot better.

5 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

Instead pf shoveling… we rake. Pine cones, leftover leaves and debris from last storm. 

I did that last week after the storm.  A lot of green lawns in Methuen.

3 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

You said that a month ago

Incorrect!!..he said that last December lol

13 hours ago, raindancewx said:

You all are welcome to come visit our mountains - the skiing has been nice. The secret to the high elevations out here is that it's almost always 0-30F or so at the base level of the resorts, ~8,000 feet, from mid-Nov to mid-Mar.

That is high for NE MA....we've had a patchy coating so far..lasted for about 3 hours...lol

8 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Better looking 0z Runs so far

You must get the alternate ending version(s) of the models...

8 hours ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Proper use of correcting the vernacular there, carry on.  

2 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

Morale is low, reminds me of 2015

Some individuals are going down with the boat known as "WINTER 23-24"

5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Pattern recognition is one thing, but I'm not sure Canada was exceedingly warm last fall when most outlooks were issued. It's also only problematic if one was expecting a cold winter, which no one was to my knowledge. It doesn't preclude being just cold enough to snow in the second half.

Numerous records for warmth/heat have been broken all across Canada the last several years....

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

 

Ah yes......genius. Don't ever issue a forecast, and you can claim to have "nailed it", while telling everyone who did why they missed it.

Who is claiming to be a genius???...I simply pointed out what has been taking place in the northern hemisphere. 

12 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

100%. The foundation of NWP is chaos theory. I don’t believe most in here understand this, or they think they do but in reality, they don’t at all. They’ve never seen it demonstrated, explicitly. 

This stuff pisses me off to no end because the physical equations are robust; it is solid science. It’s the future telling that causes the significant error bars; especially 5 days + out. It’s the addiction of wanting to see the future which has people abusing the modeling tools available to the general public and entrenching in the masses minds that atmospheric science is more BS than macroeconomics.

Taken together, observations are far more powerful (skill-wise) than hypotheticals built on representations of the global atmosphere 2 weeks+ out which are then used to make regional forecasts. No Skill! In other words, more work analyzing does NOT translate to more accurate forecasting results. It just means more jargon and BS explanations that dupe the naive and ignorant, “this guy must know something.” It also means forecasting accuracy is likely lower because it is more clouded, staring at variables as if they are knowns, when in reality they are unknowns because at future time points they are very poorly resolved; or not resolved at all.

When it comes to complexity, most often, the simplest explanations are the most accurate ones. 

I agree, for some individuals it is an attempt to feed their ego. The same thing happens with the baseball stat geeks who think the answer(s) is in the numbers rather than with proper in person evaluation of players. .....and yes often times the simplest explanations are the best..  as the old saying goes, paralysis by analysis certainly applies to some people here who over analyze everything.....information overload is never a good thing.

16 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I haven't seen anyone forecast a cold month of December. I think the high end of my range was +3F. It's very rough to forecast extreme anomalies at a seasonal level...this is why it's considered a huge signal when you see a 985mb low on a day 10 ensemble mean.

I also find it hard to credit anyone that doesn't put forth a published effort....sorry, bumping a quote about a warm pool from October or November doesn't do a hell of a lot for me. Put the time and effort in and I'll give credit where its due. Short of that anyone trying to claim credit for anything is akin to a lucky guess on a math test without any work shown. 

Pattern recognition is NOT a lucky guess. It is recognizing a pattern(s) and understanding the impacts the pattern(s) may have or may not have.    The patterns the last several years have produced record warmth all over the northern hemisphere. Warmth can and has impacted snowfall. ..and that is not debatable. 

Many places in the northern hemisphere are experiencing their warmest year on record. It only stood to reason that if the warmth continued into late fall and winter that it would have an impact on snowfall....deductive reasoning is NOT a "lucky guess"...

So far this past fall and early winter there has been a continuation of the record warmth across the northern hemisphere. And that has led to well below normal snowfall.  At this point there needs to be a significant shift in the pattern to prevent the winter of 23-24 from being a complete dud.

1 hour ago, wncsnow said:

I don't know whether to be excited or if it's winter cancel. There seems to be 2 consensus of opinions. 

.....take a look at the pattern...........

13 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Somebody get this guy a squirrel. Cheer em up.

1 minute ago, jbenedet said:

Anyone else hearing packs of coywolves on the regular? 5-8 p.m. ish ?

Thought it was a neighbors wolf-dog/husky for a few weeks, but it clicked when my wife matter-of-factly was like "You hear that howling? That's gotta be coyotes" I was like, "duh, oh shit, she's probably right...." I listened more closely last night, and yes, definitely not the neighbors domesticated dog...

Just taken aback given I'm right in downtown dover. I hear their howls daily loud and clear echoing from my northwest, further up the Cocheco upstream from the dam at Central Ave. They also sound large, more of a wolf-like tone to the howl...

..they have been in my neighborhood for years...