Windspeed

Beryl has gone over 24 hours since the completion of its last EWRC. Perhaps a concentric band has intensified since last recon. I have no idea, as the most recent MW pass missed the TC. Regardless, the eyewall remains very stable. We may even have a sub 930s central pressure now due to the duration of persistent deep convection overnight. It doesn't look like Beryl has leveled off yet. Unfortunately, we've to wait a few more hours until the next reconnaissance mission.

Meanwhile, Beryl continues to rip and may still be intensifying...

In short, there is shear just to Beryl's NW. You can see strong 300-200 hPa level southwesterly flow blowing off the tops of storms in Beryl's bands to the north of the circulation. But the core remains separated from this stronger upper flow for now. How long Beryl's core remains undisturbed from that flow? Perhaps it can shrug it off until late Tuesday (today). Inevitably, it will have some impact. We'll have to watch how that upper tropospheric trough (TUTT) evolves, and if that fearure can close off and reteograde west (and at what distance it does so from Beryl) in the coming days. This will have a direct impact on Beryl and if it can maintain Major Hurricane intensity in close proximity to Jamaica. I do expect we will see a weakening hurricane, but how much and how quickly is the big question.

Pressures falling down into the 920s would be extremely impressive considering the higher background pressure regime across the eastern Caribbean and SW Atlantic Basin right now. 22 mph (19 kts) on a WNW heading is indicative of how strong the flow around the SPHS remains. Honestly, if Beryl wasn't already such a powerful vortex, or rather, a weak or developing TC, it would likely be having coupling issues with surface convergence and efficiency of latent heat content despite high SSTs. It's moving about as fast as Andrew was during its status as a Cat 5. I believe Janet was even a bit faster at 24 mph (21 kts). So fast Cat 5s do happen, obviously, but only after they're already strong TCs. Edit: Actually, Andrew's top speed of 18 mph (16 kts) didn't occur until it reached the Bahamas. I am trying to find some other Category 5s that compare to Beryl with regards to forward motion if anyone wants to contribute. Edit 2: Hurricane Ivan was moving at 17 mph when it attained Category 5 status in the same general area of ECARIB. Interestingly, it had a swift motion of 21 mph as a Category 4 storm in the MDR, but gradually slowed down to around 16 mph upon its tear through the ECARIB, then to nearly a stall and NW turn after Jamaica. *still looking*

Good thread with an excellent cross section on Beryl's structure.

We were most likely too close to the 11PM AST advisory package for the need of a special update. But I do anticipate an upgrade to at least 160 now in the advisory, perhaps even 165, as that would be supported by recon data conservatively.

Depends on the level and strength of the flow versus the steering layer and the storm structure. Strong wind flow above 300 hPa level can ventilate a core versus any shear hindrance if the steering motion is similar. If the upper flow is below that, it may tilt the vortex column negatively. Likewise, opposing upper level flow against storm motion, even above 300 hPa level will affect the core negatively to the point the vortex will be disrupted. We have seen trough-influenced hurricanes embedded within shear intensify rapidly regardless of vortex tilt due to mass divergence aloft and ventilation overcoming shear. In Beryl's case, it will face opposing upper level flow versus its steering flow at some point tomorrow into the middle of the week. We would assume a weakening trend, but Beryl is a well-developed TC. Perhaps it can counter that somewhat; though most likely, it will not. At least climatology says it will not. We'll just have to see how the TUTT evolves and then how any resulting ULL that may form out ahead of Beryl evolves. If it closes off at a further distance from the TC, it may lessen shear and enhance ventilation. However, if that ULL is too close or the TUTT is placed over Beryl, most likely, the hurricane will weaken significantly. Furthermore, if the TUTTs flow is too deep into the mid levels (500-400 hPa), it most certainly will disrupt the core faster.

I don't really see any evidence of an outer wind maxima yet. Will be curious to see the turn here for recon if they try to sample the NE quadrant one more time. Beryl still has an opportunity to strengthen overnight prior to any upper level environment degrading on Tuesday. Edit: They made a left turn. Looks like they will try to punch the west eyewall or SW quadrant and then attempt to sample the NE quadrant one more time. Also, I need to correct myself. There was indeed an outer maxima in the band to the east and northeast of the NE eyewall on that first pass, though subtle, just not an outer maxima in the SW quadrant. Edit 2: Nevermind, I read the FLWs wrong as the plane was closing in on the core. There is a strong band there, but it's more of a plateau, not a spike in winds. That doesn't really constitute an outer maxima. Here is a nice radar presentation from ENCWX.

That dropsonde was impressive. 21°C down to 700 hPa. Also, regardless of any structural evolution, the vortex message shows a well-stacked core. There does not appear any negligible tilt from 850 hPa up. So for now, at least, Beryl is not much impeded by the continued moderate mid-level easterly flow. Of course, its swift forward motion from the steering layer is helping that. Westerly upper level flow and impactful shear may begin to increase on Tuesday. Beryl's size and organization may be able to battle against that somewhat if shear doesn't get too strong.

Ooof. Well, there will be several more passes on this mission. Oh well, hurricane records are just for us nerds. Beryl remains an insane beast for July 1st regardless.

The central pressure given the background environment and the flight level wind reduction alone would support a 160 mph hurricane if the NHC chose to upgrade. That being said, it appears something is off with the SFMR instrument.

I think they're setting up for a NE to SW quad pass. If Beryl attained Category 5 a few hours ago, even if there is an outer wind maxima from a double eyewall, the inner is most likely still cranking 156+. Just based on the color differences in banding on IR, I don't think the current cycle or merger is mature enough to rob Beryl of peak intensity yet. They should have vortex data within the hour.

Beryl does have strong banding that will inevitably lead to another EWRC or at least a merger. There are still CBs ongoing; the core appearance remains healthy, but there may also be a double eyewall structure in the eastern semicircle. Need recon or an MW scan, but overall, Beryl still looks like a high-end TC. Anxious for the next recon pass to see what is under the hood.

Beryl is currently around 13.3N 63.8W looking at imagery. The last hurricane this strong near those coordinates in the eastern Caribbean was Maria in 2017. Maria was at Category 5 intensity, but in September, with more climatological support. Remote sensing data has suggested Beryl may have continued to drop in pressure since the last reconnaissance data. The next flight may find that Beryl is now a Category 5 as well. If so, Beryl would be the earliest in record-keeping, breaking Emily's July 16th date.

That eyewall is cranking. Anxious what the next recon pass finds.

https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/1807774281310281865?t=tNPW2luQAJKikw3rOZSZgQ&s=19

Canouan might miss the northern eyewall just to the island's south. Watching any jog closely, as any is critical. Unfortunately, Carriacou and Union Islands and the Petites are in big trouble. Might be a landfall point inside the eye.

Giant buzzsaw mode..

Very explosive CB that's canopy cirrus is actually spilling over the eye. I expect that coverage to encircle and expand the CDO. Looks like an intensification trend is beginning to me. Not good timing for Grenada and the Grenadines.

Oh wow... This is completing quickly!

It looks like it is merging into the intense eastern band that is essentially the eastern eyewall now. There isn't really a concentric moat feature. This looks like the merger style ERC I mentioned earlier, and now that we have a clear view from Barbados, it looks almost complete. Intensification may resume once finished. I'm curious if the eye ever fully fills in tonight on satellite with cloudcover since this looks like more of a merger.

A little more historical perspective on Beryl since record-keeping...

Irma did the same thing at an even much higher intensity. Also, I repeat this ad nauseam, but replacement cycles do not follow a script. Sometimes, the outer band will merge into the inner eye, closing the moat, and never allowing a full concentric eyewall to form. This can actually cause the inner eye to expand into the larger band without a complete breakdown of the eyewall. It's more obvious on radar, but on satellite, the eye never cloud fills, the cloudless region just gets larger. Irma did this twice. We've watched numerous typhoons do the same. It's still considered an ERC, but it's really more of a partial cycle and eyewall merger. Edit: I should note that a full EWRC or partial can still result in the two wind maxima joining and an increase in the overall windfield. But a full collapse of the eyewall is not always a guarantee.

11PM AST discussion with quite a focus on ongoing structural changes within Beryl and post-EWRC potential:

Wayyyy too early to try and nail down specifics for landfall points in the western GOM, north or south, for now. Modeling can change pretty drastically that far out. Really, everyone around the GOM should keep tabs on this.