J.Spin

You professionals definitely have it tough in this weird forum format. The problem is that even threads like this aren’t just for data dissemination and discussion, there are these weird social club and weather anxiety therapy components as well as social media-tier drive-by weenie comments that are allowed. My solution would be to give the weenies immutable probabilistic forecast numbers and be done with it so they couldn’t twist all the words around. But, that’s not really how things work around here, nor do I get the impression that it’s actually what they want to hear.

I don’t really follow the temperatures, since for me what really matters is if it’s cold enough to get some snow, but I think they’ve been below average based on the numbers I see PF mention. December snowfall has been just about right on track for average at our place (mean December snowfall through today is 14.0” and we’ve had 14.1” for the month so far). Snowpack is at 10”, which is only about 3” above average, thus things are pretty close there as well. So really, it’s been a pretty typical December in the snowfall/snowpack department, we’re just way ahead of the game because of an extra 20” of snow in November. That’s evident in the season snowfall – we’re at 51.1” of snowfall, which is a typical place to be at the end of December, not the middle of the month.

Event totals: 1.6” Snow/0.05” L.E. Details from the 6:00 P.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.4 inches New Liquid: 0.01 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 40.0 Snow Density: 2.5% H2O Temperature: 7.9 F Sky: Mostly Clear Snow at the stake: 10.0 inches

I added in some of the discussion I saw last night about the current system, it looked like the forecaster was sort of debating with him/herself as they weighed things, although there could have been more discussion behind the scenes and previous elements of the discussion that they were addressing. I thought they were cursing the Froude Values at one point, but I think it was a typo. It says the near term was “RSD” in the attributes at the bottom. Anyway, great stuff on aspects of the current system. Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 703 PM EST Tue Dec 11 2018 .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 646 PM EST Tuesday...Compact upper shortwaves moving across Lake Champlain during the winter along with surface boundary and moisture is never what the synoptic models suggest. Yes...some snow showers are expected but history has sown that these scenarios lead to more than we bargained for. !@z FROUDE values <0.5 with WNW flow...shortwave and surface boundary favorable. Deep moisture is lacking but atmosphere is gradually moistening with approaching shortwave/front and with time should moisten. In fact...18z FROUDE has just arrived and supported this previous thinking with greater moisture and actually spitting out QPF, thus feel rather confident in the changes that have been made. Here we go...as the shortwave and boundary move into Champlan vly by 03-04z we should see an enhancement in activity over the lake and across Northern Champlain Vly...this should continue til 07-08z then subside but stay locked in the mountains thru 12z. I didn`t go gang busters with snowfall amounts but definitely increased to be noticeable. In the immediate Northrn Champlain Vly we could see an inch or so and the western slope communites like underhill/cambridge could witness 2-3 inches with 4 inches along the mountains. Time will tell.

Event totals: 1.2” Snow/0.04” L.E. It was actually thanks to you posting that I was aware of a couple of our recent stealthy snow events, but this one I noticed because I was out yesterday evening. Being finals week, I was giving a late exam yesterday and left UVM around 8 PM or so. Flakes were just starting to appear in Burlington, and the snowfall really ramped up as I headed to Williston and stopped in for an errand at the Taft Corners area. The roads were already taking on a coating of snow there, but the snowfall just tapered off to nothing as I dropped down into the center of Richmond. The snow started to pick up as I approached Jonesville, and in line with the usual trend I figured it would just continue to intensify all the way to the house, but it totally stopped by the time I reached Bolton. Either the storm was still moving in, or the Froude was on the low side I guess (there was some cool discussion about that in the BTV AFD as the system moved into the area). It really wasn’t until midnight or so that the snow began to pick up at our place, and we had some huge flakes up to 1” for a bit there. Flakes were small at observations time this morning, but picked up later so we’ve had some additional accumulation now. Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 1.2 inches New Liquid: 0.04 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 30.0 Snow Density: 3.3% H2O Temperature: 21.2 F Sky: Light Snow (1-3 mm flakes) Snow at the stake: 10.0 inches

I did LOL a bit when I saw the statement because NW winds mean something more along the lines of “See ya… sunshine.”, or “See ya… whatever is in the way of heading up to the mountain”.

Indeed the powder is staying great with these temperatures, so it’s really just skiers chewing things up at this point. I was back up at Bolton yesterday afternoon for an outing with the family, and the couple of additional inches of fluff nicely topped things off. It wasn’t going to reset areas that had already been tracked of course, but it did put a new layer on everything, and the powder depth seems to be staying right around the 1-foot mark in areas not affected by wind etc. Spending time at both Stowe and Bolton each season, we do notice how the lack of high-speed lifts and lower overall skier numbers lets the powder last a lot longer at Bolton. You don’t get that big Mansfield vert, but it’s hard to beat the high snowfall/low key vibe there. A few shots from yesterday afternoon’s outing:

Event totals: 0.2” Snow/Trace L.E. Based on the BTV NWS forecast discussion I’m attributing the snow from last night into today to the weak cold front passing through the area. There was very light snowfall evident through much of the Winooski Valley westward until about Richmond this morning, and the sky began to clear from that point on. Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.2 inches New Liquid: Trace Temperature: 24.3 F Sky: Flurries/Light Snow (4-12 mm flakes) Snow at the stake: 9.0 inches

I was up at the mountain yesterday morning for what was actually Bolton Valley’s first “official” day of the season, and can pass along a quick report and some pictures. Temperatures were cold to start, with single digits F, and then it was well up into the teens F by the time I left around midday. The settled powder depths we found were just about a foot everywhere, so I suspect the 14 inches they’re reported over the week is a bit on the low side, but it could depend where during the settling cycles they made their measurements. Bottomless powder turns were available on moderate and low angle terrain, but anything with a black diamond pitch or more, you’d still be hitting the subsurface at times because there just wasn’t enough liquid equivalent to get to that level. Skiing was still fine on those steeper pitches, but mid and low-angle stuff was really sweet. I took a trip up through one of the main single family home neighborhoods up there, which I think goes up to around 2,400’, and they are loaded with snow. The snowpack is probably only about two feet or so, but after the addition of this week’s fluffy snow you can see a lot of spots where it’s just piling up on roof lines, roof snow is merging with the ground snow piles, etc. I’ve got a few images from the day below, and the full report is available at our website.

Event totals: 1.3” Snow/0.01” L.E. I didn’t know about the snow falling last night until I saw PF’s post with the radar image, but I caught it in time to make some 12:00 A.M. observations. We’ve already had some fluffy rounds of snow this season, but indeed last night’s snowfall was right up there. Sometimes you can get a sense of the flake structure by the rate at which the snow fall through the air, and last night that rate was slooooooow. I’ve had some cores this season where I could only pull a trace of liquid, so didn’t calculate the snow to liquid ratio, but last night’s analysis (0.88 mL of liquid from a 1.1” core) did actually round to 0.01” of liquid and allow for a calculation. It’s the highest ratio I’ve seen so far this season. Details from the 12:00 A.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 1.1 inches New Liquid: 0.01 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 110.0 Snow Density: 0.9% H2O Temperature: 14.7 F Sky: Light Snow (2-10 mm flakes) Snow at the stake: 10.0 inches Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.2 inches New Liquid: Trace Temperature: 12.9 F Sky: Flurries Snow at the stake: 10.0 inches

Event totals: 2.8” Snow/0.10” L.E. Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.1 inches New Liquid: Trace Temperature: -2.9 F Sky: Partly Cloudy Snow at the stake: 10.0 inches

Yeah, Coastal is right, you don’t have to do anything with it, and aside from measuring it and coring it… I don’t. It was the same when we lived out in the Rockies in Montana, people know that with this kind of dry snow you can just drive over it and pack it down instead of wasting time constantly trying to clear it, because it really doesn’t offer enough substance or resistance to impede driving, walking, etc. Since our driveway is gravel, I want to leave a certain amount of snow base on it anyway for the snow blower. I really only need to clear the driveway after more substantial storms. This early season has been a great example – we’ve had almost 50 inches of snow, and I’ve only had to clear the driveway for one storm, Winter Storm Bruce, which brought over two inches of liquid equivalent. Another factor that’s not required, but is incredibly practical in this kind of environment, is having a garage. Having an attached garage was an absolute must when we were looking for a place around here, and it makes total sense in this type of environment where you have a long winter and potentially over 100 days with snowfall. It’s sort of ironic I guess, but the only time I actually need to get out a snow brush or ice scraper to clean snow off my car is when I park somewhere else… not at my place. Even if you don’t have a garage, you can just turn on your windshield wipers and that snow is gone, or don’t – as soon as you drive a few feet the snow typically just blows away from all the windows. People often think that living in this type of environment just means a lot of “nuisance snow”, but for the most part it’s fairly low maintenance eye candy.

Event totals: 2.7” Snow/0.10” L.E. We picked up an additional 0.4” of extremely dry fluff with this morning’s activity, and there’s still a bit of light snowfall around this evening that I’m attributing to the same system. There do appear to be chances for light snow continuing through the weekend and into next week: Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 329 PM EST Fri Dec 7 2018 .SYNOPSIS... A few weak disturbances will bring chances for light snow showers over the weekend and early next week, as well as reinforcing shots of below normal temperatures. Details from the 5:00 P.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.4 inches New Liquid: Trace Temperature: 20.1 F Sky: Light Snow (1-2 mm flakes) Snow at the stake: 10.0 inches

With the current system winding down, I took a look at the snowfall totals stand since the warm section of Winter Storm Carter over the weekend. For the resorts that have them available, I took the 7-day totals, which should be fairly representative of what’s fallen atop the old base. Here’s the north to south listing of available snowfall totals from the Vermont ski areas along the spine: Jay Peak: 16” Smuggler’s Notch: 21” Stowe: 20” Bolton Valley: 12” Pico: 7” Killington: 7” Bromley: 9” A quick check on the modeling suggests the next system would be coming through the area tomorrow night. In the BTV NWS AFD it’s described as a weak clipper low/upper shortwave, with accumulations expected to be fairly light. Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 631 AM EST Fri Dec 7 2018 .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 617 AM EST Friday...Saturday will start out with sunshine, but clouds will increase through the afternoon as a weak clipper low/upper shortwave approaches from the northwest. Snow showers will spread in from the west Saturday afternoon ahead of this system, but limited moisture and weak forcing will keep daytime snow accumulation light. Saturday`s highs will once again be well below normal, in the upper teens to mid 20s. .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 242 AM EST Friday...Lingering snow showers are expected across the Adirondacks and Green Mountains Saturday night with the axis of the upper level trough moving through the region. As the trough moves through, moisture will begin to decrease pretty rapidly which will help limit the areal coverage and intensity of any lingering snow showers.

Event totals: 2.3” Snow/0.10” L.E. The snowfall was just flurries at observations time this morning, but it was really picking up as I left the house, so there may yet be a bit more moisture to come. Overnight, I suspect flake size came down a bit, since the density of the 1.7” on the boards this morning was notably more hefty than the midnight reading. Of course, it’s not hard to go upward when it comes to 2.0% H2O-ish fluff, but with almost a tenth of an inch of liquid in this morning’s core, it was a notably more substantial contribution to the resurfacing and bolstering of the pack that’s been going on this week. Details from the 12:00 A.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.5 inches New Liquid: 0.01 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 50.0 Snow Density: 2.0% H2O Temperature: 30.4 F Sky: Light Snow (2-10 mm flakes) Snow at the stake: 9.0 inches Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 1.7 inches New Liquid: 0.09 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 18.9 Snow Density: 5.3% H2O Temperature: 24.6 F Sky: Flurries Snow at the stake: 10.0 inches

Check out that shot of snowfall coming into Burlington right now – you can really see the big flakes coming down on the Church Street Marketplace Live Web Cam.

Snowfall hasn’t been too heavy here thus far, with 0.1” through 6:00 P.M. and another 0.2” since then. It’s definitely become more robust in the past 10 minutes or so with the current pulse that’s hitting the area though:

Event totals: 0.1” Snow/Trace L.E. As of 6:00 P.M. there was a tenth of an inch of snow on the boards from this event, with a bit more falling this evening. Details from the 6:00 P.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.1 inches New Liquid: Trace Temperature: 30.4 F Sky: Flurries Snow at the stake: 9.0 inches

The forum should develop an indicator, you know, something that could even go in the avatar space that would let you know who to take seriously and who not to. If only they had such a label.

I guess it’s not the same as the iron-clad, lockdown guarantee that was put on the next system coming north, but it’s still confusing to the folks following along.

Well, ‘tis the season and location.

If we actually drew the geographic triangle, you would probably be in it no? Would borderwx would be a good vertex? Is he typically in the globe?

Similar here in BTV – flakes have started flying in the past 10 minutes or so.

I hadn’t looked at the full BTV NWS AFD yet, but boy is there some great stuff in there from our mountain-savvy forecasting crew regarding the next couple of days – lake-effect, upslope, shortwaves, snow ratios, local mountain details, it just goes on and on. The last paragraph is like a PF special, all about the upslope. From a skier’s perspective, the crew is knocking it out of the park and more than earning their salary going that extra mile to cover all the topography and effects so thoroughly. .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 623 AM EST Thursday...Current forecast in good shape with no significant changes made. Did update to capture latest hourly temps/dwpts. Radar shows lake effect band developing near KART/KGTB while expanding toward southern Saint Lawrence County and the western Dacks as vis at KART is down to 1/4sm in snow. All elements covered well in forecast. Winter weather advisory continues for Southern Saint Lawrence County until 7 AM Friday for snowfall accumulations of 2 to 6 inches with localized higher amounts mainly south of a Hammond to Russell to Carry Falls Reservoir line. Expect occasional lake effect snow showers thru tonight with rapidly changing sfc vis and road conditions in the heaviest snow shower activity. Also, the central and northern Green Mountains of VT from Mt Abraham to Mansfield to Jay Peak will receive 2 to 6 inches with localized 8 to 10 inches possible from Mansfield to Jay Peak by midday Friday. A sharp snowfall gradient from the CPV to the mountains is anticipated and areal coverage of snowfall >4 inches will be limited, along with impacts, therefore no advisory necessary. A dusting to several inches possible in the CPV and parts of the northern SLV by Friday. Water vapor shows narrow axis of mid level moisture and embedded short wave energy which produced light snow over northern/central VT, including the CPV is lifting north of fa. Meanwhile...upstream brisk west/southwest mid/upper level flow with numerous embedded short waves and pockets of mid level moisture is streaming toward our cwa, while trof deepens across the Great Lakes. First short wave, mid level rh, and enhanced lake effect moisture lifts across our cwa btwn 14z-18z today, with a period of occasional snow showers anticipated. Sounding profiles indicate deep moisture with good rh in snow growth region, so anticipating snow ratios in the 15 to 20 to 1 range. Meanwhile, 925mb to 850mb southwest flow strengthens ahead of approaching sfc cold front, so anticipate lake effect snow showers to redevelop by 21z over northern NY and extend ne toward Jay Peak. Soundings show lake to 850mb temp differences near 20 degrees, creating moderate to extreme low level instability profiles, with deep moisture available thru 700mb. These ingredients along with well aligned southwest cloud layer flow will help to produce a moderate to localized heavy lake effect snow band across southern Saint Lawrence County this evening, before action shifts to the south by 06z. Meanwhile as lake effect shifts south, many parameters look favorable for a 6 to 12 hour window of accumulating upslope snow showers, especially across the northern Dacks and central/northern Green Mountains of VT. The combination of developing west to northwest upslope flow, several additional short waves crossing our fa, and favorable moisture profiles thru 700mb will produce periods of snow showers. Would not be surprised of a burst of moderate snowfall mainly in the mountains btwn 03z-09z tonight as the arctic boundary pushes across our cwa. As colder profiles develop overnight, favorable snow growth region expands with good available moisture, so anticipate ratio`s to increase btwn 20 to 30 to 1 by Friday morning. However, areal coverage of snow shower activity will slowly decrease on Friday and become mainly confined to the northern Mountains. Always difficult to determine exact end timing under upslope flow and strong low level caa, but have likely pops tapering to chc pops by Fri aftn. Several additional fluffy inches possible on Friday, especially Mansfield to Jay Peak. Bottom line expect periods of accumulating snowfall over the next 12 to 24 hours, with highest accumulations over the Southern St Lawrence Valley/northern Dacks and central/northern Vt Mountains, with an inch or two possible in the valleys. Highs today mainly 20s to lower 30s with lows dropping back into the teens to mid 20s tonight. Highs Friday start in the teens to mid/upper 20s but hold steady or fall back into the single digits summits to lower 20s warmer valleys by evening.

Yeah, the new snow definitely has that fluff and sparkle to it. We’ve had about 6 to 7 inches here at our place in the past few days. It’s settled to about half that depth of course, but it’s definitely making a difference in the surfaces. Although a big L.E. snow event is clearly the best for resurfacing, this snowfall is the kind stuff that helps get the conditions on the slopes back to something respectable. The next one in the pipe looks like it’s knocking on our door. Our point forecast suggests 2-4”, with 4-8” in the higher elevations around here. “Bread and butter”, as they say. Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 629 AM EST Thu Dec 6 2018 .SYNOPSIS...Occasional snow showers are expected through tonight with a plowable snowfall anticipated over parts of northern New York and Green Mountains of Vermont. Bands of lake effect snow showers will develop today and continue overnight ahead of an arctic cold front. Snowfall accumulations will range from a dusting to an inch or two in the Champlain, Connecticut, and northern Saint Lawrence Valleys to 2 to 6 inches with localized higher amounts over the Adirondacks and portions of the Green Mountains.