J.Spin

The north to south listing of available 48-hour snowfall totals from the Vermont ski areas are listed below, which should represent approximate storm totals from our most recent event: Jay Peak: 8” Burke: 3” Smuggler’s Notch: 4” Stowe: 3” Bolton Valley: 5.5” Mad River Glen: 5” Sugarbush: 4” Middlebury: 4” Pico: 2” Killington: 2” Okemo: 0” Bromley: 2” Magic Mountain: 2” Stratton: 0” Mount Snow: 0”

Event totals: 3.9” Snow/0.32” L.E. The totals above represent the final values for this event. With about a third of an inch of liquid equivalent picked up down here at the house, and likely more in the higher elevations, it was actually a pretty nice resurfacing storm, especially on top of other recent rounds of snow. It certainly felt that way when we were out at Stowe yesterday. Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.2 inches New Liquid: Trace Temperature: 5.0 F Sky: Mostly Clear Snow at the stake: 12.0 inches

Heading home from riding at Stowe today we saw plenty of fairly heavy snowfall. I grabbed a radar shot form a bit earlier and you can just see those streamers blasting across the spine: We had a fantastic afternoon of riding at the mountain as well – I’ll put together some notes and images when I get a chance.

Event totals: 3.7” Snow/0.32” L.E. Details from the 5:00 P.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 2.8 inches New Liquid: 0.27 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 10.4 Snow Density: 9.6% H2O Temperature: 24.1 F Sky: Light Snow (1 to 5 mm flakes) Snow at the stake: 12.5 inches

We had a period of small flakes for while this morning, but as of late morning it’s changed over to huge flakes and much more vigorous snowfall at the house. We shouldn’t have any problem hitting the 2-4” in our forecast since we’re already getting close to 3” from the event.

I haven’t seen any outrageous rates here at the house yet, but thus far this morning there’s been a steady light to moderate snow out there with some large flakes up to 15 mm at times.

Event totals: 0.9” Snow/0.05” L.E. Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.9 inches New Liquid: 0.05 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 18.0 Snow Density: 5.6% H2O Temperature: 33.8 F Sky: Snow (5 to 15 mm flakes) Snow at the stake: 11.0 inches

That was a good look for them, so it’s going to be nice to see how it plays out. The only part of the resort that really needs touching up are a few of the natural Timberline trails down around 1,500’ – 2,000’. I was on that part of the mountain for a tour on Thursday, and could see that those spots will need just a bit more snow to be able to support left-served levels of skier traffic. I was up at the main mountain today, and I was very impressed with how the skiing has come along in the past couple of days. The new snow has settled some and it’s now had a chance to form a much better bond to the underlying surface. In addition, there’s definitely been some additional liquid equivalent added to the surface snow relative to what I found earlier in the week thanks to the additional snow we’ve gotten. We found that even black diamond pitches were skiing nicely with all the new snow, and even when you got down to the base it wasn’t overly firm at all. Today’s temperatures up around the freezing mark were likely helping with the softening as well. In the weather department today it was really nice - the sky was a mix of sun and clouds when we got up there in the late morning period, and temperatures were just edging above freezing at the 2,000’ level. The freezing level was climbing up in elevation, but the powder in the higher elevations was definitely staying nice into the afternoon. A few pictures from today’s outing:

Yeah, I took a look at the HRRR and could see some of that blocked flow look. Since around 10:00 P.M. we’ve been having flakes here as the first pulses of moisture appear to be moving into the area:

Yeah, that certainly seems reasonable. The point forecast here is roughly 2-4” through Sunday night, so at elevation that wouldn’t be surprising at all. Just about every model shows precipitation in the 0.2” to 0.4” range along the spine up here, so there’s a lot of support, and the BTV NWS discussion suggests SLRs will be in the 15 to 20:1 range.

As I’m watching TWC this morning, Dr. Postel was discussing next week’s potential winter storm in the NNY/NNE area. While he was pointing out the expected importance of elevation with the event, he used a 3-D graphic they’ve prepared for the discussion that zooms in on the Champlain Valley from the south and shows the spine of the Northern Greens in relief. It was very much like graphics we’ve used here in discussions to give a sense for the ~4,000’ difference in elevation between BTV and the higher ridgelines. Anyway, it was interesting to see one of the concepts we often discuss in here covered at the national level.

I didn’t do any comparisons to my data because I really don’t have a long term average to compare to here (the official BTV site is definitely not a great representation of here along the spine), and with only 12 seasons in my data set, I’m essentially creating the average. So not surprisingly, my seasons break down roughly 50/50 above/below with respect to the snowfall average. We did have what were clearly five below average seasons in a row from ’11-‘12 to ’15-‘16 (highest annual total during that stretch was only 144.7”), with ‘09-‘10 clearly below average and ‘06-‘07 potentially a bit below average, so that’s seven seasons that are probably below average right there, with another six seasons out there from this century for which I don’t have data.

I haven’t been paying much attention to the southern stream system because it seemed pretty marginal and warm in VT (that’s not a classic combination for great results), and the BTV NWS isn’t expecting any significant impacts per their recent discussion. I guess it depends on how far south in the state you’re thinking, but VT really seems to be on the fringe of any effects. AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Burlington VT 940 AM EST Fri Jan 4 2019 .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...As of 940 AM EST Friday...Southern stream system - currently over the Arklatex region early this AM - passes eastward off the mid-atlantic coast and south of New England on Saturday. May see just the northern fringe of associated stratiform precipitation across s-central VT, with conditional probability of IP/ZR/R mix across Rutland/Windsor counties Saturday afternoon for a few hrs. With PoPs only 20-40%, not expecting any significant impacts, and temperatures once again generally warm above freezing with highs mainly mid-upr 30s. The northern stream system on Saturday night into Sunday seems to have more potential up north. The BTV NWS forecast discussion just mentions an inch or two at this point, but with the way it looks on some of the models, and what we know about what the Greens can do with even these smaller systems, I’d think that the mountains have potential for a bit more than that. I’m sure the BTV NWS will talk more about it as more runs of the short term models come in and it if potential is there, and I’m sure PF will talk about it here or on Braatencast if he sees some potential: .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...As of 305 AM EST Friday...A northern stream shortwave at the base of an amplifying trough will push through the northeastern United States Saturday night. Positive vorticity advection associated with the feature and favorable upper-level jet placement will provide enough deep lift to support some snow showers overnight in the North Country. Despite the favorable dynamics however, deep moisture will be limited. At this point, looking like the best chances for an inch or two of snow will be over the northwestern Adirondacks and northwestern Green Mountains in the overnight to morning hours. Snow showers will taper off during the afternoon Sunday as the better forcing moves east of the area.

The thing is though, I swear I’ve seen posts from some folks in SNE mentioning that they’ve only seen five (or was it maybe even as low as three?) below average snowfall winters this century? That’s amazing if it’s real. I’m sure someone has the real numbers, but if those sorts of numbers are true, there have to be corrections at some point. At our site (reasonably representative of the spine of the Northern Greens) we’re doing fine on snowfall thanks to that big November, but due to December being a bit on the slow side, the current season total is nothing outrageous. As of this most recent storm, we’re about a foot ahead of average snowfall pace, but that represents a S.D. value of +0.64, so well within ±1 S.D. Right now we’re actually 20 to 30 inches behind seasons like 2007-2008 and 2008-2009, which were killing it with great Novembers and Decembers and were nearing 100 inches of snowfall at this point. From what I’ve seen so far in my data set, those winters kind of set the standard for great early season runs. Going forward though, this season will certainly be holding its own if we were to have a good January. I just looked at my data and it’s been eight years since we’ve had a reasonably strong January in terms of snowfall at our site (January 2011 with 55.5”), but we’ll just have to see how this one plays out.

Event totals: 5.9” Snow/0.26” L.E. The clouds are starting to clear out now, so the totals above should be the final values at our site for this storm. Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.4 inches New Liquid: 0.01 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 40.0 Snow Density: 2.5% H2O Temperature: 27.1 F Sky: Mostly Cloudy Snow at the stake: 12.0 inches

Event totals: 5.9” Snow/0.26” L.E. The clouds are starting to clear out now, so the totals above should be the final values at our site for this storm. Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.4 inches New Liquid: 0.01 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 40.0 Snow Density: 2.5% H2O Temperature: 27.1 F Sky: Mostly Cloudy Snow at the stake: 12.0 inches

Definitely no offense taken – discussing the data and collection methodologies is one of the great parts of this forum. I typically expand my posts to explain things in a bit more depth because I want to pass along my experience with others on here that might be measuring snow – compared to how simple it is to measure liquid precipitation, it’s actually amazing how much more complicated and variable snow measurement turns out to be.

I headed up to Bolton Valley for a quick ski tour this morning, so I can pass along some snow observations and a few pictures. With roughly 5 inches of new snow found at the house this morning, and the resort reporting the same, it didn’t seem like there was a huge elevation dependence with this event. Plus, now that the bullwheel replacement on the Timberline Quad and associated operations are finally done, Timberline is back open for ski touring, so I figured I’d get to check out the conditions there for the first time in a while. Temperatures were in the mid to upper 20s F with light snow falling and zero wind, so we’re talking super friendly conditions to be out on the hill. Since wind was pretty minimal during this event, I found a very even coating of about 5 inches of new snow at the Timberline Base (1,500’) and roughly 5 to 6 inches up at the Timberline Summit (2,500’). The new snow was excellent dry powder in the 20 to 1 range for snow to water ratio, and there’s generally plenty of base, but the consistency of the base is horrible. It’s rock hard, and in a few exposed places that had presumably seen flowing water, there was simply clear ice as the top layer of base. There was a nice established skin track in place on the Twice as Nice ascent route, but the ascent was definitely the most challenging part of the tour. Slightly steeper spots with just powder on ice provided little grip, and you could see that in those areas some people had to diverge out from the main skin track and take shallower routes due to lack of grip with their skins. Fortunately there were only a handful of spots like that, but navigating them was a definite challenge. It’s good that there wasn’t much wind with this event because scoured areas would be a nightmare. After seeing the conditions on my ascent, it was obvious that the best bet for a descent was going to be something that had previously groomed, and had a fairly shallow angle. So, I headed down Villager from the Timberline Summit, and that was an appropriate pitch. I still had to hit a couple of blue/black pitches on Sure Shot on my route, and there was no way to avoid touching the hard subsurface there, even on 115 mm boards. The Lower Turnpike area with its nice mellow pitch would probably have offered up the most consistent bottomless turns today, but it was nice to get a chance to get out on Timberline again. I can’t imagine there was any point to skiing ungroomed terrain before this latest storm, and this snow isn’t going to be able to hold up to much traffic, but there are definitely some nice powder turns to be had on terrain of the appropriate pitch. Some pictures from today’s tour:

Event totals: 5.5” Snow/0.25” L.E. Details from the 5:00 P.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.6 inches New Liquid: 0.03 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 20.0 Snow Density: 5.0% H2O Temperature: 30.0 F Sky: Light Snow (2 to 10 mm flakes) Snow at the stake: 12.0 inches

LOL, from what I’ve seen on the forum those guys down there apparently love their big storms with big winds, but I also hear them griping about the issues with snowfall measurement, so I was just trying to think of a word to describe that environment.

Below is the north to south listing of available overnight/24-hour snowfall totals from the Vermont ski areas for this latest storm. Consistent with the storm accumulations map from the BTV NWS, the zenith for snowfall looked to be about a half foot in the Stowe area with totals falling off a bit north and south of there. Jay Peak: 3” Burke: 5” Smuggler’s Notch: 6” Stowe: 6” Bolton Valley: 5” Mad River Glen: 3” Sugarbush: 2” Suicide Six: 4” Pico: 3” Killington: 3” Okemo: 2” Bromley: 3” Magic Mountain: 1.5” Stratton: 3” Mount Snow: 3”

LOL, well I guess we can’t argue that you’re not paying attention, but I’m surprised that a guy from driftville like you would even give an apparent disparity like that a second glance. Based on years of recording snowfall and snowpack observations, even in a sheltered location like mine, I’ve found that differences plus or minus an inch or two between snowfall and anticipated snowpack depth changes simply aren’t worth worrying about. The correlation between snowfall and snowpack depth changes is already quite tenuous, and with the incredibly fluffy snow we get around here it’s sometimes barely existent. Often, the snowpack increases I see here are less than the snowfall measured due to compaction of the underlying snow, but seeing discrepancies in the other direction isn’t uncommon either. In this case though, PF’s point about the consistency of the base is certainly in play – the underlying base snow is rock hard, so there’s no compaction going on at all. And, even in a sheltered location like mine, we still get small eddies of variant snow deposition around fixed objects (like my snow stake that is ~6 inches wide). Also remember, snowpack is only reported to the nearest half inch per the CoCoRaHS guidelines, so when I report 7.0 inches of snowpack depth, that’s certainly 7.0-ish inches, and the same is true for 13.0 inches. Being as meticulous as I am though, I actually did give the depth at the stake a second look this morning. My first check on the stake was up close when I was emptying the new snow from my rain gauge outer cylinder, but I have to sort of look at the stake from the side there to avoid disrupting the local snowpack. I called it roughly 12.5”, but then did a second check directly in line with the depth scale using binoculars from the house, and the visible snow at the stake was hitting the 13.0” mark, so that was the call. Indeed one can go the route of saying, “Well, I only got 4.9 on the boards today, so that 13.0 inches I see at the stake really should be 12.0 inches, I guess I’ll call it that”. The problem with that is though, is that really a more accurate report, and how long does that go on? When it’s settled back a couple of inches later today, do I still subtract another inch? What about for tomorrow’s stake reading? Unless there’s a clear issue influencing a measurement, it’s really easiest to simply call what’s there and not try to overcomplicate it – especially when there’s already decent rounding in the process. In my experience, the snowfall/snowpack correlation thing definitely falls under the “don’t sweat the small stuff” category unless you’ve got really poor collection or siting issues like the Mansfield ridgeline co-op snow collection/Mt. Mansfield Stake depth issue. If there aren’t any major siting issues with the equipment though, just report what’s there and it all averages out in the end. It’s still snowing out there, but not to the degree that it would outpace the settling I’d expect to see in the pack, so we’ll have to see what’s at the stake later today.

Event totals: 4.9” Snow/0.22” L.E. Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 4.9 inches New Liquid: 0.22 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 22.3 Snow Density: 4.5% H2O Temperature: 25.0 F Sky: Light Snow (1 to 2 mm flakes) Snow at the stake: 13.0 inches

Event totals: 4.9” Snow/0.22” L.E. Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 4.9 inches New Liquid: 0.22 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 22.3 Snow Density: 4.5% H2O Temperature: 25.0 F Sky: Light Snow (1 to 2 mm flakes) Snow at the stake: 13.0 inches