J.Spin

Event totals: 1.0” Snow/0.06” L.E. I suspect there were flakes here at the house much of the day yesterday, similar to what I saw in Burlington, but any accumulation was minimal until the evening when the snow picked up in intensity. I contemplated running an analysis at midnight last night, but there was only about a half inch on the boards, so it didn’t seem to be needed. Last night’s flakes had some fairly decent size, probably with a range of 2 to 8 mm, but this morning thus far the flakes have been fairly small in the 1 to 2 mm range. From what I’m seeing this morning, the flake size does seem to jump up when the snow intensity increases. Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 1.0 inches New Liquid: 0.06 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 16.7 Snow Density: 6.0% H2O Temperature: 27.9 F Sky: Light Snow (1 to 2 mm flakes) Snow at the stake: 4.0 inches

BTV NWS has slowly brought things up a bit in their discussions over the past couple of days, and they’re thinking up to 6” at the summits. Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 741 PM EST Wed Dec 4 2019 .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 723 PM EST Wednesday... orographic forcing and localized orographic blocking could yield 2-4" of snowfall along the immediate western slopes of the northern Green Mtns (Jeffersonville to Montgomery), and up to 6" possible through Thursday morning across the highest summits from Mt. Mansfield to Jay Peak. Temperatures overnight will fall back into the mid-upper 20s, with highs on Thursday mainly 30-35F.

I arrived in BTV to see that there are already some flakes coming down here. The local radar shows a broad pulse of moisture coming from the SW that stretches from here up to Montreal, so presumably is some of the moisture off of Ontario/Erie.

This was just one of those systems where the high pressure must have been pressing down enough to suppress the expanse of the system, because it was a storm track hugging fairly close to the coast, and those can certainly be decent around here. The storm did deliver a nice freshening of a couple to a few inches to the snowpack at least. It’s nice to know that you’ve essentially got a whole season of consolation prize to look forward to though – local climate will eventually do its thing in the end. On that note, have you looked at the general mid-range modeling for Wednesday through Saturday around here? – it looks like lots of nice bread and butter potential. There’s nothing obvious jumping off the page right now for the BTV NWS crew in their discussion, but you know how these shortwaves and frontal passages can go. Even at face value it looks pretty nice, and it should be fun to see what the mountains do with it.

Event totals: 2.5” Snow/0.22” L.E. Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 1.0 inches New Liquid: 0.07 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 14.3 Snow Density: 7.0% H2O Temperature: 26.4 F Sky: Flurries Snow at the stake: 4.0 inches

Event totals: 1.5” Snow/0.15” L.E. Details from the 10:00 P.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 1.5 inches New Liquid: 0.15 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 10.0 Snow Density: 10.0% H2O Temperature: 24.4 F Sky: Light Snow (2 to 8 mm flakes) Snow at the stake: 3.0 inches

We were at 1.2” when I checked around 9:00 P.M., so we seem right on track for the 1 to 2” that the BTV NWS has in our point forecast for the evening.

I didn’t see exactly when it started, but it’s been snowing here since some point before 6 PM. It’s a fairly moderate rate of snowfall made up of a mixture of flake sizes.

Thanks, and I realized that having the dates for the various snow events would be helpful with respect to seeing how they were distributed throughout the month, so I updated the post with those. Indeed, I think a 4” call seems pretty good around here. There’s certainly a snowfall gradient up here in the northern part of the system, so it will be interesting to see where the numbers ultimately end up by the time it winds down.

Below I’ve got the updated maps from the BTV NWS associated with upcoming Winter Storm Ezekiel. With this update, Winter Weather Advisories were pushed northward into Addison and Orange counties, and the some of the accumulation ranges were pushed northward accordingly. Our area was in the 3-4” shading on the previous map, but with the northward push we’re on the edge of the 4-6” shading now. It looks like the edges of the accumulation ranges have been refined a bit more to account for the cutoff on the northern edge of the storm, because some areas in the northern part of the state were tapered back a bit. Our point forecast here suggests something in the 3-6” range for accumulations through Tuesday, which seems well in line with the current projected accumulations map.

November Totals Accumulating Events: 12 Snowfall: 17.8” Liquid Equivalent: 6.00” 2019 Precipitation: 58.47” At one point it looked like this November might try to rival last November with respect to snowfall, but now that the numbers are in, it’s not even in the same league. I guess I forgot how snowy last November was, but with this November delivering only half the snow we saw last year, the contrast is quite stark. This November was still a few inches above average with respect to total liquid and snowfall, but with +1 S.D. for snowfall at close to two feet, the month was well in the realm of normalcy. Barring some highly anomalous warmth this December, this season’s period of continuous snowpack would be starting on November 8th, which is definitely noteworthy and bested last season’s start date by two days. This is of course more of a seasonal vs. a monthly stat though. This November did have a noteworthy achievement with 12 accumulating snowfall events however, besting last season’s 10 events. I haven’t checked to confirm, but I’m pretty sure that’s got to be tops in my records. So although this November was relatively middle of the pack with respect to overall snowfall (rank #5), the below average temperatures did help to achieve an impressive number of accumulating events. This month’s events are listed below: 0.2” – (11/3) Weak mid-level trough moving in from Great Lakes bringing lake-effect moisture on WSW flow 7.1” – (11/7) Strong cold front + associated shortwave, lake moisture & convective snow showers 5.1” – (11/10) Winter Storm Caleb - surface low pressure tracking through New England 0.4” – (11/14) Upper-level shortwave and associated warm front 1.1” – (11/15) Cold front and associated squalls 0.2” – (11/19) Warm coastal system merging with weaker Great Lakes low pressure 0.9” – (11/20) Upper-level shortwave trough/inverted trough 0.1” – (11/22) Warm/cold fronts from storm well NW of St. Lawrence Valley 1.0” – (11/24) Coastal storm passing through southeastern Massachusetts 0.9” – (11/27) Winter Storm Dorothy - low pressure passing NW of New England 0.1” – (11/29) Snowfall from low level moisture 0.7” – (11/30) Weak moisture boundary moving N to S over international border

Event totals: 0.7” Trace L.E. There are still a few flakes fluttering by at times, but we’ve also had periods with sun this morning, and based on the radar it looks like the moist flow bringing the snow globe conditions has finally tapered off. We picked up another tenth as of 10 PM in the evening, and then there were another couple tenths on the boards this morning, but unless something changes, the totals above should be it for this event. All liquid analyses came in below 0.01” resulting in just a trace overall, although if the analysis had been done all at once it might have hit that measurable level. In any event, the flakes have been fluffy and the accumulations quite dry, so there’s not much moisture in the snow to speak of. Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.3 inches New Liquid: Trace Temperature: 9.3 F Sky: Partly Clear Snow at the stake: 2.0 inches

I’ve got the current maps from the BTV NWS associated with upcoming Winter Storm Ezekiel pasted below, and I suspect they’ll have some updates later today with their latest thoughts.

Event totals: 0.4” Trace L.E. It’s been a snow globe morning here, but generally with some sun and not nearly as potent as some of the cloudier versions of these days. You can tell by the way we get pulses of flakes at times that they must be blowing in from the mountains. The flakes glittering in the sun have been quite picturesque overall. Details from the 12:00 P.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.1 inches New Liquid: Trace Temperature: 23.7 F Sky: Light Snow (3 to 10 mm flakes) Snow at the stake: 2.0 inches

Although there haven’t been any substantial weather systems in the area over the past couple of days, it’s been pretty active with respect to snowfall. Yesterday we saw low clouds with very light snow falling continuously throughout the day. The flakes were tiny, and only accumulated to a tenth of an inch by evening. The BTV NWS mentioned the low level moisture that was in the area, and the snowfall definitely had the feel of that type of setup. That low level snow seemed to gradually taper off later in the evening, but I woke up today to find another round of accumulation with more snow falling. The flakes were dramatically different, with sizes in the 2 to 7 mm range, and the accumulation was a lot less dense, so I assumed the snow came from a different mechanism. Indeed the BTV NWS indicated that today’s snow is from some sort of weak moisture boundary moving through from north to south over the International Border. Liquid analyses on the snowfall saw both coming in below 0.01”, and the rest of the observations are below: Event totals: 0.1” Trace L.E. Details from the 6:00 P.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.1 inches New Liquid: Trace Temperature: 26.2 F Sky: Light Snow (1 to 2 mm flakes) Snow at the stake: 2.0 inches Event totals: 0.3” Trace L.E. Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.3 inches New Liquid: Trace Temperature: 16.3 F Sky: Light Snow (2 to 7 mm flakes) Snow at the stake: 2.0 inches

Event totals: 0.9” Snow/1.14” L.E. We were out and about on some holiday travels, but I finally had a chance to run the analyses on the precipitation from Winter Storm Dorothy this evening. We got quite a shot of liquid before the snow came in, and it seemed to transition with some sloppy snow that’s now refrozen below the much drier snow. The snowboards had a crusty mess adhered to them below the snow, so that made dividing the frozen precipitation from the liquid precipitation a bit challenging, but at least the rain gauge caught everything for the storm’s liquid equivalent total. It seems like the accumulating snow was fairly far north with this storm, because coming from the south, we really didn’t see much in the way of new snow until we were getting pretty close to home. Details from the 10:00 P.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.9 inches New Liquid: 0.06 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 15.0 Snow Density: 6.7% H2O Temperature: 28.2 F Sky: Flurries/Light Snow (1 to 2 mm flakes) Snow at the stake: 2.0 inches

Some discussion of the upcoming snow from the BTV NWS – I haven’t heard PF mention it yet, but guess there’s some upslope potential: Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 648 PM EST Wed Nov 27 2019 NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 541 PM EST Wednesday... Expect rain to change to snow across the summit by 06z as 850mb temps drop below 0c and a mix of rain/snow in the valley by 09z Thurs, with some light snow accumulation possible on the eastern side of the CPV by 12z Thurs. Best snow accumulations of 2 to 6 inches will be western Slopes from mansfield to jay peak above 2000 feet late tonight into Thursday, as favorable moisture, upslope flow, and caa will produce accumulating snowfall. Noticed high resolution btv 4km has qpf of 1.0 to 1.25 in the form of snow thru 18z Friday, but issue will be lack of moisture in the favorable snow growth zone after 18z Thursday, which will limit qpf/snowfall.

Event totals: 1.0” Snow/0.10” L.E. Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.1 inches New Liquid: Trace Temperature: 33.1 F Sky: Cloudy Snow at the stake: 3.0 inches

Event totals: 0.9” Snow/0.10” L.E. Details from the 4:00 P.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.9 inches New Liquid: 0.10 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 9.0 Snow Density: 11.1% H2O Temperature: 33.3 F Sky: Light Snow (1 to 2 mm flakes) Snow at the stake: 3.0 inches

I hadn’t passed along the BTV NWS map updates from earlier today, so I’ve got those pasted in below. Since 11:00 A.M. when the snow started up, it’s been just sort rolling along at a light pace of ~¼”/hr. It’s definitely whitening up the old snow nicely and covering up any grassy spots that started to appear. In general it’s just a quiet, snowy day thus far.

Hehe, yeah, you can definitely do that a lot more up here. Folks just need to remember that it’s a perk when it’s happening in May and June as well. I find that for some reason there can be less embracing of the cool temperatures by the public at that time of year.

Well, if those bands down in Addison County want to continue pushing up this way, I don’t think anyone would complain (unless they’re some sort of mixed precipitation or something):

Indeed, your comment didn’t come off in a sensationalist way at all – you were addressing a bit of a deficiency in modeling that is something poorly addressed, and we’ve seen it play out that way a number of times.

I didn’t see traces of any precipitation overnight, but the first flakes of this event are just starting to fall here in Waterbury.

Right, but you even pointed out that you were thinking out of the box and wouldn’t necessarily have gone that route if you were actually responsible for the forecast. I think that disparity speaks to what does on for some of the “weenies” in the forum – if they have zero responsibility related to their predictions, they’re sort of free to go wild and say whatever they want, then you meteorologists have to reign them in. I get it that this sort of a “hobby” for many people, but from my perspective, the grandiose snowfall predictions always come off as sort of “weenie-ish?” (I guess that’s a term) I assume it’s all part of the drama.