J.Spin

Event totals: 2.3” Snow/0.07” L.E. Details from the 10:00 P.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 1.5 inches New Liquid: 0.06 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 25.0 Snow Density: 4.0% H2O Temperature: 10.9 F Sky: Partly Cloudy Snow at the stake: 4.5 inches

My phone just went nuts again and I got an updated one – it says it goes to 5:45 P.M.

Event totals: 0.8” Snow/0.26” L.E. I ran an analysis on the snow we’ve seen thus far this afternoon, and indeed it came in quite dry as PF was mentioning. We do have some additional snow falling now with the next slug of moisture coming into the area, so we’ll see what the evening brings with respect to any additional accumulations. Details from the 4:00 P.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.8 inches New Liquid: 0.01 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 80.0 Snow Density: 1.3% H2O Temperature: 27.5 F Sky: Light Snow (1 to 2 mm flakes) Snow at the stake: 4.5 inches

The NWS is certainly serious about these squalls – I got the full blown loud beeping alert on my phone, and my son just got home and said everyone else is getting them as well:

Well, we certainly know where the Vermont delegates would put their votes!

Yeah, liquid analyses will be interesting today. It looks like we’ve got some more potent pulses of moisture pushing into the area now:

I hadn’t really been thinking about the stake depths much yet this season, so thanks for the reminder. We haven’t quite hit that 24” threshold yet, peaking at 23” about a week or so ago, but this next event could certainly push it there. If we do hit it with this next round of snow, it would be later than the mean, but still well within 1 S.D., which stretches out to roughly the end of the month: Mean 12/12 Median 12/9 Mode 12/16 S.D. 18.8 days Last season it was hit was fairly early, with a date of 11/27 as indicated by the red star in the Mansfield Stake 24” data plot:

Event totals: 4.2” Snow/0.26” L.E. We had one final batch of snow move through in the late evening, and things have mostly cleared out this morning, so above are the final snow and liquid numbers for this event. Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 1.3 inches New Liquid: 0.05 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 26.0 Snow Density: 3.8% H2O Temperature: 20.5 F Sky: Mostly Clear Snow at the stake: 4.5 inches

Event totals: 2.9” Snow/0.21” L.E. Details from the 8:00 P.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.6 inches New Liquid: 0.07 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 8.6 Snow Density: 11.7% H2O Temperature: 24.8 F Sky: Light Snow (2 to 5 mm flakes) Snow at the stake: 3.5 inches

My next set of observations is at 8:00 P.M., so we’ll see where we are at that point. We picked up about another half inch since my earlier observations, but that larger flakes wound down and we’ve had just lighter snow with small flakes since then. If that banding that PF mentioned moves over toward the mountains here I suspect the snowfall intensity would pick up though:

Our location really gets lumped right in with that whole contiguous stretch of high elevations along the spine of the Central/Northern Greens, since the resolution isn’t quite high enough on that map. With that said, one distinct break point in the shading it that change from the more purple coloring into the pink/salmon coloring at 36”. The start of that zone would be 36-40”, which would actually be right on track with what I’ve recorded on the season thus far.

Event totals: 2.3” Snow/0.14” L.E. Details from the 2:00 P.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 2.3 inches New Liquid: 0.14 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 16.4 Snow Density: 6.1% H2O Temperature: 25.0 F Sky: Light Snow (4 to 12 mm flakes) Snow at the stake: 3.0 inches

The clouds dropped on the mountains a while ago, but as of ~9:55 A.M. we’re also starting to get some flakes here in Burlington.

Flakes started up here in Waterbury at ~8:15 A.M.

Yeah, we’ll have to see what the NWS offices think when they make their afternoon updates. Actually, when I looked at some of the midday model runs I saw a lot of guidance showing a level of overall northward movement, but I’m going to assume that’s not quite a main topic of conversation in the storm thread.

I was just taking a peek at the models, and with respect to subsequent events the next week or so has a potentially nice look. We’re really going to need multiple rounds to get surface conditions back to something respectable, but on top of last night’s back side squalls, there’s: · Tuesday system (Winter Storm Finley) · Wednesday’s cold front/squalls · Sunday · Mid next week? Of course those latter potential events are well up in the air, but much of what’s shown is bread and butter northern stream flow, which is typically much more reliable. At face value all these events would be forecast as “light” snow, which is prudent, but we know what can and often does happen when they hit the mountains. I guess we’ll see how it goes, but in many ways it would be nice to just have these things deliver ahead of the holiday week vs. some potentially larger storm screwing things up. I just checked my numbers, and average snowfall through the 15th of December at our site is 30 inches, so even with the ups and downs, we’re still a few inches ahead on seasonal snowfall. In terms of monthly snowfall, we’re just about on track as well with 17 inches. So despite the lackluster conditions at the moment, there hasn’t really been a big snowfall issue. These past couple of warm storms have been what’s really knocked down conditions. Using my data, the snowpack depth sort of shows that – it’s only about an inch or so at the house, whereas the average for this date is in the 6 to 8-inch range. Hopefully we’ll get some of that…

Event totals: 1.9” Snow/0.79” L.E. The initial small accumulation of snow from early today melted back down, but eventually as temperatures dropped and the snowfall picked up, accumulations happened quickly. There were some intense periods of snow as darkness approached, and it really played havoc with the roads. I headed out to a Christmas party this evening and was lucky I was using Route 2 and timed it such that they’d just put down brine to quickly take care of the flash freeze. I-89 is still all backed up in various places though with what looks like a number of accidents, and I’m sure it’s been frustrating for folks who have been stuck in that traffic. Details from the 7:00 P.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 1.5 inches New Liquid: 0.07 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 21.4 Snow Density: 4.7% H2O Temperature: 24.3 F Sky: Light Snow (1 to 4 mm flakes) Snow at the stake: 1.5 inches

We’ve had flakes in the air at least since observations time this morning, but they’ve been very small and sparse. And, temperatures were still well up into the 30s F, so there was no accumulation to report. The skies did start to darken somewhat in the later morning, and around 11:30 A.M. the pace of the snowfall picked up to the point where we started to get some accumulation. We’re still a bit above freezing down at this elevation, but temperatures are supposed to come down as we head into the afternoon. The moisture from the west is certainly visible on the radar though:

Event totals: 0.3” Snow/0.44” L.E. Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.1 inches New Liquid: Trace Temperature: 34.9 F Sky: Rain Snow at the stake: 0.5 inches After 6:00 P.M. observations yesterday, we had a bit more snow, the some sleet, and the precipitation has been rain since then. The forecast indicates that precipitation heads back to snow tonight into tomorrow on the back side of the system: Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 730 AM EST Sat Dec 14 2019 .SYNOPSIS... Tonight rain will change to snow showers with snow accumulations of 2 to 5 inches likely from northern New York into parts of northern Vermont by Sunday afternoon.

Event totals: 0.2” Snow/0.01” L.E. As of 6:00 P.M. observations we’d picked up a couple tenths of an inch of snow from the front end of the current system. Since then there’s been a bit more snow as well as some sleet and mist. Details from the 6:00 P.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.2 inches New Liquid: 0.01 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 20.0 Snow Density: 5.0% H2O Temperature: 34.0 F Sky: Light Snow (2 to 10 mm flakes) Snow at the stake: 0.5 inches

I just got an alert that we’re under a Winter Weather Advisory, which is up for potential freezing rain on the front end of this system. Overall it looks like this storm has a bit of freezing precipitation on the front end, some snow on the back end, and plain rain in the middle.

From discussions here and elsewhere, I recall that at points in the past, observations were made right in Burlington proper, closer to the lake, vs. where they are now out by the airport a few more miles inland. There’s certainly less snow accumulation (at least in the fall and early winter when the lake is warm) right down by the lake front, so that’s a possible contributor. I’m not sure when the location change happened, but PF might have some insight into it.

Event totals: 0.6” Snow/0.02” L.E. The initial squall that passed through here was pretty intense, and we were actually under a Snow Squall Warning as the BTV NWS shifted them in our direction. There are still some flakes out there as residual moisture flows through. Details from the 10:00 P.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.6 inches New Liquid: 0.02 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 30.0 Snow Density: 3.3% H2O Temperature: 24.6 F Sky: Flurries Snow at the stake: 0.5 inches

Event totals: 0.3” Snow/0.31” L.E. This most recent event has cleared out as of this morning. I had debated putting last night’s snow into its own event with the way the BTV NWS spoke about it as a distinct dew point boundary, but it really did seem to be trailing moisture from the main system, so I’ve kept it all together. Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.2 inches New Liquid: Trace Temperature: 20.7 F Sky: Cloudy Snow at the stake: 0.5 inches The next potential snow event in the pipe appears to be coming into the area this afternoon with low pressure and its attendant cold front moving over from Lake Superior. There’s more substantial lake moisture anticipated to affect the Saint Lawrence Valley and Adirondacks, but some may make it over to the Northern Greens as well.

Since we’re back below freezing now, I went out to empty the rain gauge and return it to winter mode. It had an additional 0.14” of liquid in it, so that puts the liquid at 0.31” for this event. While I was outside I saw that some flakes we had earlier have turned into a steadier light snow now, with a couple of tenths of new accumulation down. It looks like it’s from a band passing through the area that’s visible on radar: