J.Spin

The whole original comment is meant to simply be a troll though. Forum members have routinely been pointing out the reality of SNE November snowfall averages, so the statement is akin to saying, “May through October really went out with a whimper for snow lovers”.

Agreed, normal November snowfall through the 23rd of the month here is 8.1”, and we’re at roughly double that amount with another potential storm on the doorstep. This is far from a whimpering November – sure we’re behind where we were last year at this time on snowfall, but it’s actually been quite good.

I just got a text alert that we’re under a Winter Weather Advisory.

Here’s the midday projected snow accumulations map from the BTV NWS.

That certainly seems possible based on some guidance. I really like that the BTV NWS typically seems to take their snow forecasting step by step and only slowly ramps it up as needed. We don’t have massive population centers that lead to huge traffic pileups and the folks around here are well acclimated to the snowy climate, so I think they have a bit more leeway to take a conservative approach. That’s the way it feels to me at least, even if it’s not official policy.

The forecast around here has changed fairly dramatically from even yesterday evening, where there wasn’t much precipitation expected with this next system, but now a Winter Storm Watch is in place: Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 413 AM EST Sat Nov 23 2019 .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 334 AM EST Saturday... We`ve seen a rather dramatic shift northward shift with the 00Z NWP guidance suite with the track and evolution of strong low pressure affecting our region for Sunday. The 00Z NAM, GFS and ECMWF all indicated the northward shift, with 00Z NAM and ECMWF indicating sfc low track across RI and sern MA (984mb low in operational 00Z ECMWF soln). Likewise, system development occurs early enough that models indicate a closed 700mb low to our south across sern NY/Long Island around 18Z Sunday. These trends are favorable for a period of moderate to heavy precipitation across central/ern portions of our forecast area, especially Sunday afternoon.

Event totals: 0.1” Snow/0.08 L.E. The most recent storm has cleared out, so the above snow and liquid values are the final totals here. Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.1 inches New Liquid: Trace Temperature: 21.7 F Sky: Mostly Clear Snow at the stake: 2.0 inches

Looks good now – I just made a new event for what we’ve got going on this evening and everything seemed to work. Thanks for the quick fix!

Hi Kevin, it looks like there might be some sort of issue with the “season” field? No options come up in the pull down menu for that field, and I can't seem to make a new entry without something entered there?

The incoming snow just hit here in BTV – ramped right up from nothing to some brisk snowfall/graupel.

Event totals: 0.9” Snow/0.07 L.E. Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.5 inches New Liquid: 0.02 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 25.0 Snow Density: 4.0% H2O Temperature: 27.7 F Sky: Mostly Clear Snow at the stake: 3.5 inches

Event totals: 0.4” Snow/0.05 L.E. Details from the 6:00 P.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.2 inches New Liquid: 0.05 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 4.0 Snow Density: 25.0% H2O Temperature: 32.7 F Sky: Light Snow (1 to 2 mm flakes) Snow at the stake: 3.5 inches

Event totals: 0.2” Snow/Trace L.E. The BTV NWS indicates that today’s snowfall is due to an upper-level shortwave trough, and at the house we’ve seen some accumulation of very dry snow. Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.2 inches New Liquid: Trace Temperature: 31.6 F Sky: Light Snow (2 to 5 mm flakes) Snow at the stake: 3.0 inches

Event totals: 0.2” Snow/0.29” L.E. This afternoon’s snow didn’t really accumulate much at the house, just a slushy coating of 0.1”. I think Burlington accumulated a bit more than that, but based on what I saw on our webcam we didn’t get the big aggregates that I saw there this afternoon. Details from the 2:00 P.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.1 inches New Liquid: 0.03 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 3.3 Snow Density: 30.0% H2O Temperature: 36.7 F Sky: Light Snow (1 mm flakes) Snow at the stake: 3.0 inches

Although not pulling off the 3 x 24” in one season, while looking through the data I did find another related occurrence to go along with the 6 x 12” from 2010-2011. In 2008-2009, there were 12 storms of 6” or more, which is the only season in my data set hitting that number. The 6” mark is another threshold for significant storms since it’s around that base Winter Storm Warning level (from what I understand, our criteria here are 6” in 9 hours or 9” in 24 hours?). As PF will point out though, with the extended nature of storm cycles up here, there are probably a number of 6” storms that won’t warrant a Winter Storm Warning.

I’m trying to think of the best way to check on that with respect to using my data, but smaller storms are just more frequent than larger storms in general, so one would really have to compare distributions of storm sizes among different sites. From my data set, the whole number averages for occurrence of storms per season based on some common accumulation thresholds of 3” or more are as follows: 3”+: 15 4”+: 12 6”+: 7 8”+: 5 10”+: 4 12”+: 3 15”+: 2 20”+: 1 24”+: 0.5 I went with whole numbers for simplicity, but all the mean values are actually within a tenth or two of these numbers. I had to round to the nearest 0.5 for the 24”+ storms because they are relatively infrequent. I can certainly get analysis for percentages in certain storm size ranges if there are specific ranges that people want to compare to.

As of about noon the precipitation is fully over to snow here in BTV – flakes are large, up to about 2 inches in diameter. I can also see that it’s also changed over to snow at our place in Waterbury via our webcam.

The precipitation has been mostly sleet as of late here in BTV, but more and more flakes seem to be mixing in now. I’m not sure if this will mark the official changeover, but precipitation is supposed to transition to snow at some point as this system continues.

Event totals: 0.1” Snow/0.11” L.E. The precipitation at the house this morning was a combination of freezing rain and sleet. I cored the frozen material on the board, which would ideally include just the sleet, but there wasn’t really a way to separate it from the frozen rain. Lately, the precipitation has been trending more toward sleet, but I’m not sure if that’s just temporary. We are anticipated to change over to snow later in the storm. Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.1 inches (sleet) New Liquid: 0.08 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 1.3 Snow Density: 80.0% H2O Temperature: 31.1 F Sky: Sleet/Freezing Rain Snow at the stake: 3.0 inches

I swear part of the issue is that there was this sort of campaign a while back that was pushing November as this big winter month or something along those lines. It seemed like more of a “wishcast” disinformation campaign than anything, but I think some weenies got indoctrinated and the forums are still dealing with the backlash today. I don’t remember all the details, but it was big on some of these weather boards at one point.

I’m glad Will pointed that out with ORH data; three 24”+ storms in one season has really got to be incredibly difficult to achieve for most valley locations not in a LES hotspot. Even at our site with the bonus of upslope on the back side of many storm cycles, we haven’t come close to that. I checked my data, and the situation here is similar to yours – three storms at 18”+ has thus far been the most I’ve seen. Even in a feast or famine situation with that setup you’re talking about a snowfall floor on the season at 72”, but more likely it would have to be part of a 100”+ season. We have achieved a sort of related scenario at our site with six 12”+ storms in 2010-2011. , but that’s likely much easier to achieve and more in line with the climate up here.

Nice PF, I was actually out with my younger son for a ski tour on Saturday at BV, and I’ve been meaning to pass along a conditions update. What we found was really a quantum leap in snow quality compared to the previous weekend. Snow depths around 2,000’ at the Village were typically 5-7” over a substantial base, and where we topped out on our tour around 2,700’-2,800’ depths were roughly 12”. People had even been skiing down at Timberline at 1,500’ – it seemed a bit leaner on snow than at 2,000’ of course, but definitely workable. Last week’s three events with the big, dense snow L.E. one first followed by the two smaller events really set up a gradient in the pack for some nice turns. I’ve added a couple of shots from the tour below:

Since we just finished the first half of the month, I decided to take a look at a few numbers and get a perspective on it relative to last season. Season data as of November 15th: 2018 Number of accumulating storms: 9 Cumulative season snowfall: 14.3” Snow at the stake: 3.0” 2019 Number of accumulating storms: 5 Cumulative season snowfall: 13.9” Snow at the stake: 4.5” The difference in the number of storms between the seasons was actually due to the 4 storms we had in October last year, but overall snowfall and snowpack between the two seasons was really quite similar. I couldn’t include comparison of the winter snowpack start date because we won’t know the status of this season for a while. It’s typically hard to tell if these November valley snowpacks will actually mark the start of the actual winter snowpack, since even average November temperatures can be somewhat hostile to holding snow. But with every passing day and peeks at the forecast ahead, it seems like more and more of a possibility that this season could manage a similar start to what last season did. There’s probably close to an inch of liquid in the pack right now, and it certainly hasn’t taken on that glaciated thaw-freeze structure of a really robust pack, but it will still take some time to melt. If the current snowpack does hold, the start date would be November 8th, which is actually a couple days ahead of last season, but again quite close. What actually sparked my interest in looking at the data was a segment that TWC has been playing this morning with Dr. Postel – they note the snowfall that the northern tier of the U.S. has seen so far this season, and talk about the potential going forward for the next week or two. There is potential for some frozen precipitation from the coastal system that could affect the area over the next few days, and then they mention multiple systems behind that moving along in the relatively fast flow. There’s typically more confidence with these small clipper-style systems vs. large coastal storms, and we’ll have to see how it goes, but the potential for more snow in the next week or two is certainly being discussed at the national level.

Event totals: 1.1” Snow/0.03” L.E. Yesterday evening brought an additional 0.8” of snow after the 6:00 P.M. clearing of the boards, and skies have mostly cleared out as of this morning, so that marks the end of the event. Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.8 inches New Liquid: 0.02 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 40.0 Snow Density: 2.5% H2O Temperature: 11.1 F Sky: Mostly Clear Snow at the stake: 3.5 inches

Event totals: 0.3” Snow/0.01” L.E. Details from the 6:00 P.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.3 inches New Liquid: 0.01 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 30.0 Snow Density: 3.3% H2O Temperature: 34.2 F Sky: Snow (1 to 3 mm flakes) Snow at the stake: 3.5 inches