J.Spin

Event totals: 1.8” Snow/0.04” L.E. There were still a few flurries floating around this morning at observations time, but I think this current snowfall event is just about done. Flake size finally decreased a bit and the ratios came down out of the stratosphere to the point where I could actually get liquid out of the cores, but the snow was still in the ~3% H2O range. The latest rounds of event observations are below: Details from the 12:00 A.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 1.0 inches New Liquid: 0.03 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 33.3 Snow Density: 3.0% H2O Temperature: 25.3 F Sky: Light Snow (2-6 mm flakes) Snow at the stake: 9.5 inches Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.4 inches New Liquid: 0.01 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 40.0 Snow Density: 2.5% H2O Temperature: 19.4 F Sky: Flurries Snow at the stake: 9.0 inches

Event totals: 0.4” Snow/Trace L.E. Tonight’s snow is from “two weak pieces of energy coming together over northern VT” as outlined in the BTV NWS forecast discussion: For tonight, interesting setup with two weak pieces of energy coming together over northern VT, first approaches region from the northwest, while 2nd is rotating around closed 5h circulation to our south. Thinking these short waves will produce just enough lift, with developing moisture in the favorable snow growth area to produce a period of light accumulating snowfall across the mountains of northern/central VT, including the NEK. Details from the 6:00 P.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.4 inches New Liquid: Trace Temperature: 25.7 F Sky: Light Snow (3-15 mm flakes) Snow at the stake: 9.0 inches

True that, this is incredibly fluffy stuff. At 6:00 P.M. I cored 0.4” on the snowboards and couldn’t get more than a trace of liquid out of it.

Yeah, this is definitely what we like to freshen things up after a warm system that tightens up the base. By the time the weekend rolls around again, there can often be some decent accumulations to get things back on track with multiple rounds of the Northern Greens refresh. The 4 inches we picked up yesterday at the house made a big difference in terms of walking around – you’re actually waling/driving through snow vs. just standing on top of it, and obviously similar accumulations are really going to help the ski surfaces. Taking a look at the snow from this past system by using 48-hour totals, you can see in the north to south listing for the Vermont ski areas along the spine how snowfall really tapered off south of Sugarbush: Jay Peak: 9” Smuggler’s Notch: 9” Stowe: 8” Bolton Valley: 7” Mad River Glen: 4” Sugarbush: 4” Pico: 0” Killington: 0” Okemo: 0” Bromley: 1” Magic Mountain: 0” Stratton: 1” Mount Snow: 0” It sounds like we could have a couple of additional rounds before we get to the weekend, with a bit of potential tonight, and then Thursday into Friday: Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 929 AM EST Wed Dec 5 2018 .SYNOPSIS... A trough of low pressure will prevail across our region through this upcoming weekend. The combination of surface boundaries, upslope flow, and lake moisture will produce occasional snow shower activity through the period. A plowable snowfall is expected in the most persistent lake effect snow band across northern New York into parts central and northern Vermont mountains. .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 929 AM EST Wednesday... Thursday...The focus will turn toward the potential for accumulating lake effect snow showers from northern NY into the mountains of central/northern VT. Well aligned cloud layer winds of 25 to 30 knots will combined with moderate air to lake instability parameters to produce occasional snow showers. The highest pops and associated snowfall will occur from a Star Lake/Tupper Lake to Jay Peak line in northern VT. The combination of embedded short waves and minor wind shifts will keep the lake effect a bit unorganized and moving back and forth across parts of our cwa. In addition, bl temps warm into the upper 20s to mid 30s on Thurs, which will limit snow ratio`s especially in the valleys. Thinking accumulations on Thursday range from 2 to 4 inches in the most persistent bands across southern St Lawrence Valley mainly along route 3 and over northern VT near Jay Peak. Meanwhile, outside of the lake effect accumulations will be a dusting to an inch or two. Areas of slippery travel are possible with rapid changes in vis and road conditions in the heavier lake effect snow shower activity on Thurs aftn/evening. .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 228 AM EST Wednesday...A cold front will cross the North Country Thursday night into Friday morning, bringing widespread snow showers to the region overnight. West-southwest flow will turn to the northwest by early Friday behind the frontal passage; hence expect the snow to be steadiest on the upslope sides of the Adirondacks and Greens, with shadowing for portions of the Champlain and Connecticut River Valleys. Drier air will follow in the front`s wake, gradually bringing snow to an end from west to east during the day Friday, lingering longest in the higher terrain. Total snow accumulation for this system will be 3 to 6 inches in the lake effect areas east of Lake Ontario, 1 to 3 inches in the Greens and the far northern Adirondacks, and the rest of the area receiving an inch or less. There will be at least some sunshine across much of the region Friday afternoon, but cold air advection on brisk northwest winds will keep highs only in the teens and 20s.

December can be a great snow globe time of year, since the Great Lakes are often still relatively warm and we don’t have that cold, dry midwinter air of January potentially leaving too little moisture around. We’re only just starting the month of course, but I just checked my CoCoRaHS data and so far I see only 1 day without some snow. We’ve already had some additional snow today subsequent to morning observations, so tomorrow will be ticked off as a day with snow as well. I’m actually seeing flakes here in Burlington now, and barring a specific Lake Champlain snow band, if we’re getting it here it’s likely that the mountains are getting some flakes as well.

I guess there’s a potential bonus round of snow tonight that wasn’t on the initial outlook for the week. It doesn’t really show up on the medium range guidance, but some of the shorter term/mesoscale models show it: .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 618 AM EST Wednesday...For tonight, interesting setup with two weak pieces of energy coming together over northern VT, first approaches region from the northwest, while 2nd is rotating around closed 5h circulation to our south. Thinking these short waves will produce just enough lift, with developing moisture in the favorable snow growth area to produce a period of light accumulating snowfall across the mountains of northern/central VT, including the NEK. I have bumped pops into the chc/low likely range for tonight as latest 06z NAM12km has qpf values of 0.04 to 0.08, with highest amounts across the mountains of northern VT near Jay Peak. Thermal profiles and moisture indicate snow ratios should be 20 to 30 to 1, so would not be surprised for by 12z Thursday of a fresh inch or two of snow from Mt Mansfield to Jay Peak and across portions of the NEK. In addition, lake effect snow will become better organized aft 06z and should impact extreme southern St Lawrence County and the western dacks. Expect an inch or two of snow accumulation by morning, with likely pops. Temps hold mainly in the upper teen to mid 20s due to clouds.

Event totals: 0.3” Snow/Trace L.E. I expected to find clear collection boards this morning with the last vestiges of Winter Storm Carter leaving yesterday, but that wasn’t the case. There was 0.3” of fluff on the boards and moderately-sized flakes floating gently down among a partly cloudy sky. I can’t get a clear feature associated with the snowfall because it’s not mentioned in the AFD, so I’m using the terminology that the BTV NWS is using and going with “Light snow for parts of the central VT mountains”. Related text from the BTV NWS forecast discussion is below: Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 626 AM EST Wed Dec 5 2018 .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 618 AM EST Wednesday...Lots of little features making for a challenging forecast the next 12 to 36 hours. First all models are struggling with current rh profiles and associated cloud cover this morning based on obs/ir satl trends. Web cams have even shown some light snow at times at Waterbury/Westford and Middlesex. Have continued to mention very light snow thru 12z for parts of central VT mountains. Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.3 inches New Liquid: Trace Temperature: 9.3 F Sky: Flurries/Light Snow (3-12 mm flakes) Snow at the stake: 9.0 inches

Event totals: 5.8” Snow/1.24” L.E. With today’s activity as the back end of Winter Storm Carter, it goes down as 1.6” of snow on the front end, and 4.2” of snow on the back end for the storm cycle. So, the 2-3” of back end snow that was in the local forecast was certainly met. It’s classic back end snow, upslope snow, coming in at a density of roughly 4% H2O. Details from the 5:00 P.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 3.1 inches New Liquid: 0.12 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 25.8 Snow Density: 3.9% H2O Temperature: 18.3 F Sky: Partly Cloudy Snow at the stake: 10.0 inches

Yeah, I’m sure PF would agree that shortwaves are a bread and butter part of our enhanced snowfall here that really help to bring things to that next level in terms of snow quality and powder skiing. I’d argue that today was a great example as noted in the BTV NWS forecast discussion: As of 943 AM EST Tuesday...Water vapor shows developing mid/upper level trof across the NE Conus with embedded short wave energy approaching the SLV. This enhanced lift combined with leftover low level moisture on northwest upslope flow continues to produce scattered flurries and snow showers thru 15z this morning. Shortwaves certainly improve the ski conditions, but they’re also an important part of creating that wintry, snow globe ambiance in the mountain towns and resort areas along the spine. It's the reason the local convenience marts and country stores throughout the Northern Greens have trinkets like these:

Yeah, I’ve been watching on my web cam and it looks like we’ve picked up 3 inches or so since I cleared the boards this morning. You can really see that moisture pouring into the Winooski Valley/Bolton Valley areas. I’m surprised it’s not pounding down on the Bolton Valley Live Web Cam, but I guess it might be hitting a bit downstream. They did pick up 2-3” overnight though.

Event totals: 2.7” Snow/1.12” L.E. Since there was no obvious break in the precipitation or new system, and the BTV NWS indicates that we’re dealing with leftover moisture, I’ve put all the backside snow from yesterday and today as part of Winter Storm Carter. We’d picked up a tenth of an inch of snow when I cleared the boards at 6:00 PM yesterday evening, and then light snow brought an inch overnight. The more dramatic snowfall has been taking place this morning however, with large flakes and visibilities in the 400-500’ range. Snowfall rates were well over an inch an hour at times because after I cleared the boards, there was another 0.8” of snow on them within about 30 minutes. I grabbed a recent radar shot, which shows some of those strong echoes embedded in the northwest flow: Some comments from the BTV NWS in their AFD: .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...As of 602 AM EST Tuesday...Quick update to expand areal coverage of snow showers this morning especially northern/central VT mountains and northern Dacks. Radar shows light returns over western/northern dacks and portions of the Green Mountains in Vermont which should prevail for another couple of hours. The combination of weak channeled 5h vort, favorable upslope flow, and low level cold air advection helping to squeeze out moisture is producing this snow shower activity. Additional snowfall accumulations will be light and generally under an inch. Given good rh in favorable snow growth, expect big fluff factor with some localized higher amounts possible in the most persistent snow shower activity. Still the combination of new snowfall and falling temps could produce some localized areas of slippery travel during the morning commute. Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 1.0 inches New Liquid: 0.06 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 16.7 Snow Density: 6.0% H2O Temperature: 25.3 F Sky: Light/Moderate Snow (2-15 mm flakes) Snow at the stake: 8.0 inches

Thanks for the update PF – the precipitation is even snow here in Burlington, so it’s presumably changed over most places now as the winter radar would suggest:

I haven’t seen much snow falling/accumulating on the Lincoln Peak Snow Cam, but based on the radar I think they’re just a bit south of the current push of moisture. A look at the Bolton Valley Web Cam at ~2,000’ shows light snow at least down to that elevation, so the Northern Greens are certainly getting into the snowfall.

Clouds are dropping along the spine again and I can see that moisture is moving back in based on the regional radar. The BTV NWS forecast discussion suggests generally a quarter inch of liquid equivalent or less, with the focus in the usual northwest flow upslope areas: .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...As the stacked low continues on its northeastward track today, northern portions of the forecast area will see some additional rain showers develop. During the afternoon and into the evening, a cold front will push through, allowing any residual upslope rain showers to transition to light snow. Lack of deep moisture today will limit overall liquid precip accumulations to generally under a quarter inch. Highest QPF will be in typical upslope regions under northwesterly flow (northwestern Adirondacks, northwestern Greens), while the central and southern Champlain Valley and lower elevations of southern Vermont will only pick up a few hundredths of precipitation.

It looks like the precipitation changed back to snow at around 7:15 A.M. this morning on the Lincoln Peak Snow Cam, and accumulation has already begun there. Snow levels are supposed to drop all the way to the valleys later this afternoon as the colder air moves in. Our point forecast in the valley suggests 2-3” of snow through tomorrow, and the Mansfield point forecast has 3-8” during the period. Taking a look at the various models and the BTV NWS forecast discussion, it looks like there are three potential snow events to consider over the course of the next several days: 1) Monday-Tuesday with the current system 2) Thursday-Friday with a modified arctic boundary and 5h short wave energy 3) Saturday-Monday with what looks like a possible weak northern stream impulse, or a variation of that if other energy gets involved

November totals: 34.3” Snow/8.60” L.E. The November precipitation numbers from our site were notably above average, and both snowfall and total liquid were tops in their respective categories. The 8.60” of liquid made November the wettest month of the calendar year so far, and roughly half that liquid (4.07”) came in frozen form. It’s not too uncommon for us to get 20+ inches of snow in November, which is still within 1 S.D. of the mean, but getting 30+ inches of snow in November is quite unusual. The stats (at least for my small data set) indicate that reaching this month’s level of snowfall should only happen about once every 50 years.

Conditions on the mountain are going to be changing to a wetter snow today, but I can pass along a few observations and pictures from yesterday’s Bolton Valley outing. As of yesterday, the powder had settled even more, continuing the trend I’d seen from Tuesday and Thursday. It was to the point where you were typically sinking in a few inches at most and riding atop a PNW/Sierra-type snowpack. In many areas it was certainly challenging to predict the powder density in anticipation of one’s next turn with the variability of wind effects and other settling going on. I guess we’ll see what the next round of snow brings in terms of powder density, but with the way the powder just kept settling, it did need a bit of a freshening. One of the more picturesque aspects of yesterday was the hoarfrost sitting on many surfaces. Some needles were three inches long, so being in the trees surrounded by all that was pretty impressive. I’ve added a few pictures from yesterday below, and there are some additional shots in my trip report from the day.

Event totals: 1.6” Snow/0.53” L.E. We had some additional frozen precipitation this morning, but it eventually changed over to all liquid. The precipitation is expected to change back to snow tomorrow with another few inches possible at elevation and lesser amounts in the valleys. Details from the 12:00 P.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.1 inches New Liquid: 0.04 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 2.5 Snow Density: 40.0% H2O Temperature: 37.4 F Sky: Light Rain Snow at the stake: 9.0 inches

Event totals: 1.5” Snow/0.34” L.E. For a while, this storm hadn’t been named, but now it’s called Winter Storm Carter. I was up in the wee hours of the morning and looked outside to see just a few flakes falling, but clearly the snowfall must have cranked up at some point to put down the snow I found on the boards this morning. Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 1.5 inches New Liquid: 0.34 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 4.4 Snow Density: 22.7% H2O Temperature: 34.0 F Sky: Sleet/Rain Snow at the stake: 9.5 inches

I’m glad you’re enjoying the photos Ginx. Shooting the action shots on Tuesday’s tour was incredibly challenging since we were at dusk, in late November, in a snowstorm. But of course, pushing the limits is part of the fun. The scenery shots at the start of the tour were fairly standard because there was still a decent amount of available light, relatively speaking of course. The action shots at dusk were only possible because I was using a really bright lens, the Canon EF 50mm f/1.2L USM that’s just right for these sorts of occasions. Unfortunately it seems that images posted on the forum strip out the Exif data, but it’s still present for all the shots on my website. In order to keep the shutter speed at 1/1000 sec to stop motion, I went to F/1.8 and ISO values in the 6,400 to 8,000 range. The photography and skiing were super fun, but of course the best part was getting to be out on a ski tour with my older son. I was also out for a quick tour yesterday morning, so here are a few more pictures:

I saw that Winter Weather Advisories are up for the area ahead of the next system since some frozen precipitation is expected on the front end before temperatures warm. The forecast calls for just an inch or two of snow on the front end, but the BTV NWS forecast discussion suggests there’s additional snow potential on the back side of the system: .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 249 PM EST Friday...moisture and lift, combined with developing upslope flow behind first cold front will produce chc to likely pops on Monday into Tues. Initially thermal profiles support snow levels around summit level as 850mb temps are near 0c at 12z Monday, but cool to -5c to -9c by 00z Tuesday associated moderate low level cold air advection. Several inches of snowfall is possible late Monday into early Tuesday, especially above 1000 feet.

Hey, nice catch; that’s so cool that they’re visiting the NNE thread. Go data!

Event totals: 13.3” Snow/2.27” L.E. Well, this is the first set of observations I’ve made since Monday without snow falling, so it looks like Winter Storm Bruce is finally coming to an end. If this is where it ends up in terms of the snow total, it sits in second place for November storms since I’ve been recording here. The #1 slot for November snowfall in an event is still held by the 11/20/2008 storm, although it looks like this year’s event had much more liquid with it. Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.1 inches New Liquid: 0.01 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 10.0 Snow Density: 10.0% H2O Temperature: 33.3 F Sky: Cloudy Snow at the stake: 9.5 inches

Well, with Winter Storm Bruce winding down, I figured it was a good time to check on storm totals for the Vermont ski areas. Since it’s been snowing for four days now, it seemed like the 7-day totals would be the best representation of the storm totals, so that’s what I used. North to south listing of available snowfall totals are below: Jay Peak: 44” Burke: 26” Smuggler’s Notch: 28” Stowe: 18” Bolton Valley: 32” Pico: 26” Killington: 26” Bromley: 30” Magic Mountain: 23” Mount Snow: 22” I’m assuming that Stowe number is low (PF will know) based on the surrounding areas, but it’s what they’ve got on the website for now. For areas that have them, I’ve also added the current season totals below: Jay Peak: 72” Burke: 35” Smuggler’s Notch: 86” Bolton Valley: 84” Mad River Glen: 72” Sugarbush: 67” Pico: 62” Killington: 62” Bromley: 53” Magic Mountain: 43” Stratton: 39” Mount Snow: 47”

Event totals: 13.2” Snow/2.26” L.E. The storm certainly seems to be slowing down today, but the snowfall continues so we’ll see if there’s anything else to add before it’s all said and done. Details from the 6:00 P.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.2 inches New Liquid: 0.04 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 5.0 Snow Density: 20.0% H2O Temperature: 34.0 F Sky: Light Snow (1-2 mm flakes) Snow at the stake: 10.0 inches