J.Spin

Looking back, Thanksgiving itself was on the 26th, and I’ve got reports from my ski journal on the 26th, 27th, 28th, and 29th (links below). The reports are generally ski focused vs. weather focused, but there’s definitely plenty of snow/weather stuff in there. I went skiing on the morning of the 26th before Thanksgiving dinner and I’ve added an excerpt of that text below. “This morning I was off to Sugarbush for some Turkey day turns. Mt. Ellen (Sugarbush North) is now open, so I figured I'd hit it for the first time this year. As I left Burlington, conditions were drizzle/light rain (40 degrees F), and I was anticipating drizzle and maybe a few flurries at the summit, but I wasn't expecting and real snow, shows to go ya what I know. As I entered the more mountainous areas of Richmond along I-89, the rain became steadier and it was an all-out downpour at times. I was just dreaming of what conditions would be like if it were cold enough for snow. I figured we had overrunning warm air, and even the mountains were warm enough for rain, oh well, skiing is skiing, I'll take what I can get. Things began to get interesting as I passed over the mountains on Rt. 100 in Duxbury. As I reached the pass, I suddenly saw snow mixing in with the rain! I checked that altimeter, 870', I was just hoping this wasn't a localized sort of thing. As I crested the top of the road through Duxbury (approximately 1130') the snow was actually sticking on logs etc. in the woods, and as I approached the intersection of 100 and 100B, I noticed a car approach with about 3 inches of snow on it. Now I was worried that I didn't have my snow tires on yet, I wasn't expecting real snow. The snow turned back to rain as I passed through the Mad River Valley, and changed back to snow again on German Flats Road (at elevation 930'). By the time I got to the base of the mountain (approximately 1500'), it was starting to accumulate on the road into slush. I took the lift to nowhere, then onto the North Ridge express and cruised Upper Looking Good / Lower Rim Run to get to the summit quad. 2-3 inches of snow had already accumulated on the sides of the trail, traffic was light, and man was it sweet.” Skiing on the 27th I reported the following: “It was still too early to get on the Gate House Lift, so I headed over to The Super Bravo. First trip up Heaven's Gate, I see a tele ski patroller ripping a great line down the totally fresh Spillsville. About a half a foot of new, plus whatever else was underneath, it looked sweet!” The skiing must have been pretty nice on the 28th because I had the following in my report: “Many new trails are open now, including Paradise, Ripcord, Domino Chute, Lower Jester etc. basically a good chunk of the stuff that will get you back to Heaven's Gate via the traverse. I also overheard that they opened Exterminator. In general, as people have mentioned, the coverage on the natural snow trails (that are open) is great. Paradise was awesome, except for the connection section back to Ripcord which had a lot of exposed rocks. Get out and enjoy some of the soft natural, it wasn't even turning hard under the traffic of Holiday weekend skiers.” Sugarbush, VT, Thursday 26NOV98 - Text Sugarbush, VT, Friday 27NOV98 - Text Sugarbush, VT, Saturday 28NOV98 - Text Sugarbush, VT, Sunday 29NOV98 - Text

I was watching this evening’s edition of Weather Underground, and heard Mike Bettes say that the Erie, PA snowfall from last season had to be downgraded. I was curious, figuring it was a collection interval issue (which can make a more substantial difference with LES/upslope), but it wasn’t. It looks like a main issue was collecting on a board recessed in the snowpack. I figured it would be interesting to some folks here, so I’ve excerpted some text from an article on goerie.com: “Saunders said the committee found some of the measurements invalid for three main reasons: ‒ There was a large discrepancy between new snowfall and snow depth on several dates. Those dates included the 24-hour total on Dec. 25 and 26, when it was reported that 50.8 inches of snow had fallen but the snow depth was 28 inches, he said. ‒ The snow measurement board was not always placed on top of the snowpack after a measurement was made, which allowed for a cratering effect. ‒ Traffic cones were sometimes used to stabilize the snow board, which would produce extra weight on the board and cause it to sink, creating depth where snow could drift, Saunders said.” Did they put a ground-based board back in the same spot after clearing it? I’m sort of surprised if that’s the case because in big snowfall events with LES/upslope dendrites, it’s often immediately obvious that it’s a problem if you try to do that – if you replace the board in the existing spot, the snow on the sides of the depression usually caves right in and covers part of the board. Simply collecting in a depression over the long term is a little bit less obvious, but we definitely highlighted that in last year’s discussion on the initial placement of Sugarbush Resort’s Lincoln Peak snowboard. Personally, the depression effect is rarely a concern for my elevated snowboard since it’s almost 40 inches above ground level, but after that Sugarbush discussion I’ve been paying special attention to keeping the snow cleared from around my webcam snowboard. I really can’t move that board around because the cam position is fixed, so I try to be extra diligent about removing extra snow from around it to avoid it being below the surrounding snow. Anyway, the Erie, PA issue a great lesson for anyone measuring snowfall.

The afternoon update from the BTV NWS is in, and I’ve added their thoughts on the Friday-Saturday system below. Current thinking covers the double barrel low and suggests snow levels starting out on the valley floors and rising to ~2,500’ on Friday: Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 331 PM EST Tue Nov 6 2018 LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...As of 328 PM EST Tuesday...The weekend looks quite active as an upper level trough digs in over the eastern conus. The deterministic runs have been fairly consistent in developing a double barrel low pressure type solution with a low that tracks up the Saint Lawrence and one that tracks up the Atlantic coastline Friday into Saturday. That scenario puts the North Country right the middle of a high convergence zone which should lead to widespread precipitation Friday night into Saturday. P-type will be interesting because there will be some warm air pushing in aloft but with wet bulb effects I would anticipate much of the North Country even to the valley floors will see snow initially. As we move into the day on Friday expect the warm air aloft to bring snow levels up and so rain will become the dominant p-type below 2500 feet. By mid afternoon Saturday the lows will have pushed well to the northeast and the flow become more orographic. Precip will become more terrain forced and showery through the afternoon.

The BTV NWS is starting to discuss some of the snow potential with the Friday-Saturday system. All the major models are showing some snow at this point, but the discussion highlights that a component for a longer period of mountain snow will be how quickly the coastal low takes over as the primary low: Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 619 AM EST Tue Nov 6 2018 .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 408 AM EST Tuesday...Deterministic guidance continues to show a double-barrel low pressure system forms at the surface Friday afternoon, spreading precipitation into the North Country Friday night through Saturday morning. Soundings show ptype will be mainly driven by boundary layer temperatures with support for valley rain and mountain snow showers Friday afternoon and evening before WAA potentially transitions frozen precipitation to a cold rain Friday night. I say "potentially" because if the coastal low becomes the primary low, soundings would likely be colder and support a longer period of snow across the higher terrain. Currently, models don`t show this, but several days out from the event is a lot of time for things to change. Precipitation transitions to orographic snow showers Saturday morning as the low/mid level flow veers to the west/northwest post cold frontal passage, with some accumulations at the higher elevations likely.

Wow, that’s really interesting, it sounds like they grow better in northern Maine? What’s the basis for the better growth up there?

Yeah, specific maps aside, it’s hard to keep seeing that play out on run after run after run on numerous models and not think the northern mountains will do something with it. The BTV NWS isn’t saying much yet, but I’m sure they’ll start talking soon if it looks like there’s some potential there.

We’ve had some additional spits of snow this morning around here in Waterbury, but any substantial accumulations are at elevation. The mountains do look gorgeous righty now with the new snow; they’re certainly plastered in white. From the Lincoln Peak Snow Cam it looks like Sugarbush picked up 2-3” from this event, the snow depth at the Mt. Mansfield Stake went up 3 inches, and from the images PF sent along, it looks like Jay Peak had a few inches as well. So overall in the Central/Northern Greens it seems like accumulations were 3-4 inches at elevation? I’m not seeing anything noted in Killington’s snow report this morning, so I guess all notable accumulations were north of there. I’d consider heading up with the skis to poke around in the snow a bit, but with the time change now in place, getting anything done in the yard after work is pretty much off the table going forward. We’ve still got plenty to do to finish up, so today might be one of the best options we’ve got left. November is already pretty dicey around here with respect to getting yard work done before winter starts to set in – even when we aren’t dealing with snow, there are still the issues of precipitation, having enough hours and temperatures for things to every dry out, and trying to get things done out in the raw weather. Looking at the recent model runs, it wouldn’t surprise me if we were dealing with snow again, or at least some sort of unfavorable weather next weekend.

Event totals: 0.1” Snow/2.67” L.E. We picked up our first snow accumulations of November once the frozen precipitation began making it down to the valley floors yesterday evening. Temperatures were obviously on the warm side for much of this system being so early in the season, but the total liquid from this event certainly shows how prodigious these stalled/semi-stationary frontal boundaries can be. Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.1 inches New Liquid: 0.01 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 10.0 Snow Density: 10.0% H2O Temperature: 37.4 F Sky: Cloudy Snow at the stake: 0 inches

I heard some noise outside and I see that we’ve got some grainy flakes making it down to the valley bottom here in Waterbury now. It looks like the flow of moisture is from the WNW:

Snow has let up enough that I can see the lower peaks here in the Winooski Valley, and the snow line is currently around 1,500’.

The radar is certainly showing the changeover along the spine now:

Nice, I guess it was only a matter of time with the way things seemed to be changing over. I’m sure it’s pounding up there if Lincoln Peak picked up its first inch in about an hour.

Snow accumulation up around 4,000’ on Lincoln Peak began at ~12:20 PM, and it’s closing in on an inch at this point. Man, having that camera up there on the ridgeline is really invaluable for assessing accumulations in events like these. Hats off to Sugarbush, John, and whoever else worked to put together such a great resource for skiers.

That snow has been mixing in over in the Adirondacks for a while now, and typically the spine of the Greens is next. There’s no obvious wind shift or temperature drop at the Mt. Mansfield Co-Op yet, but it looks like snow started mixing in at the Lincoln Peak Snow Cam around 11:30 AM or so.

PF, I’ve been seeing some references to 2002-2003 as an analog year in the Countdown to Winter thread, so I took a look at the Mansfield snowpack plot from that season: I wasn’t around for that season because we were out in Montana, but it looks like a pretty steady climb in snowpack through much of the season, with a very typical melt out in the spring. Were you around for that season and recall what it was like around here?

I just checked in on the latest BTV NWS forecast discussion and they’re certainly seeing some snow potential at elevation tomorrow night: Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 331 PM EDT Fri Nov 2 2018 .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 331 PM EDT Friday... For tonight, the last wave of surface low pressure we`ve been talking about for several days now takes form off the mid-Atlantic coast and rides northward along the stalled frontal boundary bringing another round of rainfall to the region after sunset and through the night. Could be a break in the rainfall during the pre-dawn hours Saturday as the low passes to the east of us, but by sunrise the upper trough shifts in and west/northwest flow will blossom precipitation again across northern areas and transition to orographic rain snow showers Saturday afternoon. Best chance at accumulating snow will be across the Adirondacks and northern Vermont where a dusting to 2" is possible, with several inches likely above 2000 feet.

I’ve been noticing the discussion about the recent uptick in precipitation around here. We’re definitely into the snowfall season now that it’s November, so it’s a good time to have it step up. On average, this is when the mountain snowpack starts to build, and we certainly need precipitation to do that. I wouldn’t mind a couple of dry days for finishing fall yard cleanup though – maybe Sunday will have some potential for nice weather? After the chance at a bit of snow Saturday night, it looks like the midweek precipitation is warm with that Midwestern system. So, the next shot at any frozen would be heading into the end of the week and next weekend - we’ll have to see if there are any effects from Great Lakes moisture: Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 743 AM EDT Fri Nov 2 2018 Behind the front temperatures gradually cool into Thursday as flow trends more west/southwesterly and conditions trend drier outside some lake effect response off Lake Ontario.

October totals: 2.7” Snow/4.87” L.E. October is in the books, and it was certainly a decent one with respect to snow at our site. Snowfall (2.7”) and number of accumulating storms (4) were both above average. We had six days with a trace or more of snowfall, and I don’t have the stats on that, but I’m sure it’s above average as well. And, that was all condensed into the last half of the month, so that was quite an active period for wintry weather. October liquid was 4.87”, which is ~10% below average for my data set, but it felt at least close to typical, and it was nice to have the moisture train going at times with the early winter events coming through. It’s going to be interesting to see how November goes after such a strong October. There are some Novembers in my data set that didn’t even achieve the number of storms or snowfall that this October did, but those are definitely the bottom of the barrel type months. We’ll see how it goes, but even average temperatures would mean a number of snow chances, and the models suggest there are some out there. It’s sort of funny that with the above average valley snowfall, the local mountains didn’t have any notably large snow events. We’ll often have something where the moisture and cold air combine to get something in the 6”+ range, but it just didn’t quite come together in the Greens this October despite the numerous rounds of snow.

It sounded like November was going to kick off fairly warm, but I saw the recent GFS runs and figured I should see what the BTV NWS had to say. Indeed they’re noting Saturday night into Sunday as the next chance for snow: Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 1029 PM EDT Wed Oct 31 2018 .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 324 PM EDT Wednesday...The long term will be bookended, with most activity at the start and towards the finish. A developing surface low will shift northward Saturday morning with the upper trough lingering behind. Wrap around moisture will result in lingering showers. Showers will gradually shift towards upslope regions with a gradual transition towards snow above 1000ft elevation into Sunday morning. The upper trough shifts east of the North Country with deep layer ridging in place by Sunday. Seasonable temperatures are expected for the weekend, with dry weather for Sunday.

Even here in Burlington the sky is spitting out some frozen stuff this morning. Looking out at Mansfield with the snow caked down Sunset Ridge, it could just as easily be April, except for the fact that there’s some autumn foliage still around here in the valley.

There’s nothing to report in terms of new snow at our site this morning, but I saw some peeks of elevation and it looks like the freezing line is a little below 2,000’ in the Winooski Valley. I’m assuming there’s been at least a bit of accumulation up high, and if that’s the case it would make it at least the seventh storm with accumulation this October. Although none of these storms have been whoppers with respect to snow accumulations around here, that’s still a strong run for October snowstorms. And, that was all done in just half the month too, so the frequency of snow events has been impressive. We typically only see one or two accumulating storms at our place in October, but even down in the valley we’ve had four accumulating events this month, which is the most I’ve seen now at this site, beating out October 2016. Heck, even November only averages four to five accumulating storms at our place. November ultimately averages much more snow than October of course, but it will be interesting to see how the two months compare this year in terms of how many storms bring accumulation.

Thanks, and thanks to you and everyone else that’s been adding their reports, images, and web cam links - it’s great to see the NNE thread coming to life as we move into the colder season and snow is back in the picture. Snow, and mountains (which mean even more snow) are our specialty up here, so ‘tis the season!

PF, I see that radar image is from around 2:00 P.M., so at that point the precipitation was pounding snow composed of huge flakes up to 2 inches in diameter. I was driving on Route 2 right through Bolton Flats a bit later during that snowfall, and visibility was very low. I had all my camera gear with me because I was heading out for a ski tour, and I thought about getting an image of the heavy snowfall, but pulling over would actually have been somewhat sketchy in that area with the conditions. I was actually on my way up to Bolton Valley to check out the snow conditions, and turned back at the 1,000’ elevation point on the access road. They hadn’t plowed the road yet subsequent to the heavy snowfall, and even the Subaru was slipping a bit at times. I wasn’t going to chance heading way up without knowing when the plow might come through (although I did see it starting up as I approached the bottom). There was actually a car flipped on its side right in the middle of Bolton Flats as I was heading back to the house, and one has to think the heavy snowfall played a part in that accident. You want to know the weirdest thing I saw yesterday though? (not sure home much you were out and about). Later when I was heading to Stowe for some skiing, I hit Shutesville Hill at the Waterbury/Stowe line, and all the snow on the ground simply disappeared (usually that high point is the snowiest spot I encounter on that stretch of Route 100). I have no idea what sort of microclimate weirdness was going on, but all of the town of Stowe was strangely devoid of snow for whatever reason. I was talking to the guy at Edelweiss later, and he said he’d even heard about the weird snow cutoff. Anyway, I’ve got some additional weather details and some pictures from yesterday in the report I put together for the NNE thread.

I was out an about for a bit yesterday amidst the snow, so I’ll pass along some observations from the area. Our snowfall at the house in Waterbury began mid-morning, and it was light but consistent from that point on. Temperatures started out here in the mid to upper 30s F though, so for the first few hours we really didn’t have any accumulation aside from a bit on elevated surfaces. As the snow continued to fall, temperatures did come down throughout the day, and they were in the low to mid 30s F as the precipitation jumped up in intensity in the midafternoon period. The snow began to accumulate on all surfaces, and then Mother Nature really turned on the spigot and we got into a period of heavy snowfall composed of big wet flakes up to 2 inches in diameter. By 2:00 P.M. the snow had quickly accumulated to half an inch on the boards. I’d been thinking of heading out for a ski tour, and with the heavy snow falling it seemed like as good a time as any with respect to catching any new accumulations on the slopes before substantial changeover to various forms of mixed precipitation. Bolton Valley hasn’t been running their web cam yet, so I really didn’t have a feel for what the snow situation was up there. I decided to head up to the Village and see if there was potential there for skiing, or whether I’d want to head off to Stowe (where I have a decent sense for the snowpack thanks to PF’s reports). The heavy snowfall continued as I drove through Bolton Flats, and visibility was way down there in the ¼ to ½ mile range or even less at times. As I began my ascent up the Bolton Valley Access Road, the bit of slush down around the 300’ elevation quickly turned into a more substantial covering of snow as I gained elevation, and it wasn’t long before I realized that that the road hadn’t been plowed. Even the Subaru was slipping a bit as the snow got deeper and I climbed some of the road’s steeper pitches, and there was no way I wanted to try heading all the way up to the Village above 2,000’ on an unplowed road. I had no idea how much snow I’d find higher up, and some sleet was just starting to mix into the snow, so I certainly didn’t want to try coming down the road later if any glaze was coming. I turned around at the 1,000’ elevation, and inched my way back down the road into the valley. As I headed back toward the house through Bolton Flats, the challenging road conditions certainly made their presence known as I saw a car that had gone off the road and flipped on its side. That must have happened in just the few minutes I’d been on the access road, but fortunately police were already on the scene. With the precipitation starting to change over, I stopped back at the house and made 3 P.M. weather observations to catch that segment of the storm, finding 0.8” of total snow on the boards. As I’d been thinking, I headed off to Stowe for some skiing, and I was fairly confident that the driving would be fine with the route at mostly low elevation. Consistent snow on the ground through Waterbury gave way to the weirdest microclimate change as I approached the town of Stowe. As I climbed Shutesville Hill at the Waterbury/Stowe line, I expected the snow on the ground to increase as usual, but instead it totally disappeared! That was the way the ground stayed all the way through Stowe, and it was as if it hadn’t even snowed there. The precipitation had changed over to pouring rain, and it was strange heading all the way up the Mountain Road with nary a trace of snow visible. Even at 1,000’ there were only the faintest hints of snow, and it wasn’t until I approached the base elevations of the resort at 1,500’ that there was a solid covering on the ground. At the resort itself I found 1-2” of snow at 1,500’ by the Mansfield Base Lodge, and 3-4” of snow up at 2,300’ at the Mountain Chapel where I topped out on my tour. Precipitation was mixed when I first arrived at the mountain, but changed back to snow for most of my tour before tapering off as I was finishing up. I’ve added a few shots from the day below:

Event totals: 1.1” Snow/0.53” L.E. As I noted earlier in the thread, snow started up around 10:30 A.M. or so here at our place in Waterbury, and it continued to snow lightly until it ramped up to a fairly heavy intensity in the 2:00 P.M. to 3:00 P.M. range. Huge wet flakes up to 2 inches in diameter were coming down for a time, with very low visibility, and then some granular flakes and eventually sleet started to mix in, so I took observations at 3:00 P.M. at that transition. After that point it was a mix of precipitation types that gradually moved toward light rain. I made my next round of observations at 9:00 P.M. and I’ve got those below as well. I was out and about and went for a ski tour at Stowe as well, so I’ll put those observations together in a bit. Details from the 3:00 P.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.8 inches New Liquid: 0.16 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 5.0 Snow Density: 20.0% H2O Temperature: 34.9 F Sky: Moderate Snow Snow at the stake: 1.0 inches Details from the 9:00 P.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.3 inches New Liquid: 0.18 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 1.7 Snow Density: 60.0% H2O Temperature: 37.0 F Sky: Light Rain Snow at the stake: 1.0 inches