J.Spin

I totally agree with what Dendrite and Tamarack have said. You report once a day - let the chips fall where they may and don’t mess with your standard observations time. That prompts a question from me though, which is about the parameter you’re reporting. I only report 24-hour snow totals to CoCoRaHS. Is “settled storm total snow upon storm completion” (I’m not exactly sure what it’s called) an actual parameter that is reported to CoCoRaHS? I certainly don’t have that field in my daily CoCoRaHS reporting page – do people use the “Significant Weather Report Form” (or something similar) and make a special entry for a storm? Is it just put in the “Observation Notes”? Is that parameter just for other organizations like the NWS? Trying to report settled storm totals in a timely manner seems like it would be very challenging/arbitrary in a lot of storms. What happens in a synoptic storm that has several hours of front end snow, followed by 18 hours of warm temperatures and mix/rain or rising snow levels, followed by another 24 hours of lingering backside snow? That sort of event isn’t really uncommon around here at all, but we’ll also have storms up here where it will snow for 3 or 4 days after the front end of the storm comes through, often with several additional inches of accumulation, because the storm stalled in Northern Maine, or the Maritimes, etc. Then there’s the factor of the next storm or LES event coming in before the snow has even stopped from the previous storm. Although I do actually have “storm totals” in my own data records, that’s nothing I report to CoCoRaHS. I actually have to spend a lot of time parsing through NWS discussions and sometimes even the weather models to try to define each storm, where one ends and where another begins, etc., and I can’t imagine CoCoRaHS would have the average observer try to do that. We see the BTV NWS report storm totals up here sometimes for significant events, but as Powderfreak will often point out if he posts them, numbers can be quite disparate when they incorporate people’s CoCoRaHS numbers depending on the timing of the storm. I’d be interested in hearing what the meteorologists and other CoCoRaHS/Co-op observers have heard about reporting settled storm totals (do you try to report that parameter?) and how these other confounding factors are addressed.

Event totals: 1.4” Snow/0.54” L.E. We’ve mostly cleared out now, so it looks like last night’s snow marked the end of that departing system. Up next appears to be a Clipper-type system coming across the area tonight into tomorrow. Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.3 inches New Liquid: Trace Temperature: 13.1 F Sky: Mostly Clear Snow at the stake: 7.0 inches

Event totals: 1.1” Snow/0.54” L.E. It was a bit surprising the way the back side snow form this past system took a while to get going here, but it’s definitely been more robust since darkness has come on with much larger flakes. Details from the 6:00 P.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.3 inches New Liquid: 0.01 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 30.0 Snow Density: 3.3% H2O Temperature: 29.7 F Sky: Light Snow (2 to 10 mm flakes) Snow at the stake: 7.0 inches

Yeah, we’ll have to see. There’s not much upstream moisture visible on the regional radar, and flakes have been small like you said (1-2 mm diameter here), but there has been an uptick in the snowfall rate and accumulation with this latest pulse I see on the composite radar:

December snowfall is in the books now, so we can take a look at how it compares to average, and see how the season is progressing at our site. With 25.1” of snow, this December was certainly on the lean side, running in the 60-70% range relative to average snowfall. It could potentially be considered in the bottom of the pack “range”, but there have certainly been even leaner Decembers, including 2014 (24.9”), 2011 (24.7”), 2006 (20.2”), and of course in a crazy league of its own, 2015 (10.6”). I’ve also got a bit of seasonal data below as we’re now 32.2% of the way through the typical snowfall season here: An interesting note this year is that November snowfall (34.3”) actually beat out December snowfall (25.1”), and that’s the first record of that happening in my data set. Although total snowfall for December was off its average pace, the weather pattern has certainly remained active, with 15 accumulating storms for the month. Combined with 10 accumulating storms in November, and another 4 in October, this season is blowing away other seasons in that regard. The 29 storms this season as of January 1st is the highest I’ve seen, surpassing 2013-2014, which was at 24 storms by this point. We’ve certainly had Decembers with more storms than this one, but getting 14 storms before December even started is really unprecedented, and that’s what put this season on its current record pace. The snowpack at 7.0” here is a few inches on the lean side of average, but overall not unusual. Finally, in terms of overall snowfall, the current season total of 62.3” is still ahead of average by about 12”, so the season as a whole is doing quite well on snowfall.

There hasn’t been much happening out there yet this morning, and there’s not much visible on the radar, but we’ve got some flakes appearing now.

Event totals: 0.8” Snow/0.53” L.E. Similar to what PF observed in Stowe, the precipitation here in Waterbury was a mix of snow and sleet in the evening, then it changed over to liquid at some point overnight. The liquid equivalent split here was 0.41” frozen and 0.12” liquid thus far, with a definite gain to the snowpack as the models suggested. The precipitation has mostly shut off for now, but the radar suggests that the changeover back to snow is just across the lake in the Adirondacks and should be here pretty soon. Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.2 inches New Liquid: 0.10 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 2.0 Snow Density: 50.0% H2O Temperature: 42.4 F Sky: Light Rain Snow at the stake: 7.0 inches

Event totals: 0.6” Snow/0.31” L.E. Details from the 12:00 A.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.6 inches New Liquid: 0.31 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 1.9 Snow Density: 51.7% H2O Temperature: 34.9 F Sky: Snow/Sleet Snow at the stake: 7.0 inches

I’ve added the updated maps from the BTV NWS for the latest winter storm expected to affect the area. One update is that on the advisories map, the edge of upgraded Winter Storm Warnings that head from NNH up into Maine are visible. On the accumulations map, it looks like accumulations in the northern half of Vermont are a little more evenly distributed east of the Greens, whereas the previous map had some even heavier pockets in the NEK.

Thanks for the heads up PF, I had no idea it was snowing, but when I see a post of yours with a radar image, it usually means I should check. I see we’ve got a couple tenths of an inch down here, and best I can tell it’s due to a weak upper-level disturbance and favorable southwesterly flow off Lake Ontario.

The BTV NWS has put up Winter Weather Advisories for the upcoming storm – maps below:

Event totals: 0.9” Snow/0.71” L.E. Details from the 10:00 P.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.3 inches New Liquid: Trace Temperature: 18.5 F Sky: Flurries Snow at the stake: 6.5 inches

It’s interesting, there’s not much visible on the radar, even in composite mode, but it’s really picked up in intensity with some big flakes up to a cm or two in diameter. I figured it was time to find a picture for you PF…

Here are the latest thoughts from the BTV NWS regarding the system that’s expected to affect the area at the early part of next week: .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 339 PM EST Saturday...Warm front/warm air advection will be moving up into the region late in the day on Monday and especially Monday night. Thermal profile suggests once again we will be looked at a mixed precipitation event. At this time it looks mainly dry for much of the day on Monday with precipitation spreading from southwest to northeast across the area Monday evening and night. Thermal profile suggests a wide variety of precipitation with best chances for freezing rain and light ice accumulations over far northern New York...up near the Canadian Border. The best chance for a mix of snow and sleet and a little bit of freezing rain looks like it will be east of the Green Mountains with the best chance for accumulating snow over north central and northeast Vermont...generally 1 to 4 inches. Over the remainder of the area its looking like a brief period of mixed precipitation with a changeover to rain before midnight. Will definitely be monitoring this situation given the fact that much of this will be taking place New Years Eve night.

Event totals: 0.6” Snow/0.71” L.E. We’ve picked up a tenth of an inch of snow thus far on the back side of this system. There’s been a recent uptick in the snowfall out there however, so we’ll see if there’s anything else to report with this event. Details from the 4:00 P.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.1 inches New Liquid: Trace Temperature: 27.7 F Sky: Light Snow (1 to 4 mm flakes) Snow at the stake: 6.5 inches

Whoops, sorry about that, it was a typo (note the 28.436.1 number) - I typed in the 36.1 F (the 1:00 PM temperature here) but somehow didn't erase the 28.4 F from earlier this morning, and it got blended into a single entry.

I saw your comment about living in a snowy climate, and it made me think about the past week – we’re supposedly in a pretty poor “wintry” weather pattern around here, but in the past several days we’ve had four rounds of snow since the warm system (and now some additional wintry precipitation on the front end of this storm so far). People who are up here for the holiday week have actually been treated to a lot of snow in the air, and with snowpack on the ground as well, they are probably getting their money’s worth. Aside from the ungroomed/off piste skiing being firm and somewhat unfriendly because of the refreeze, there’s really not much to detract from the wintry vibe and whatever winter activities people want to enjoy on their vacation. There’s a decent snowpack in place, and there have been rounds of fresh snow on top of it, which is about as much as one could ask I think. We also haven’t had to deal with any of those subzero temperatures, which I have to think is a huge plus for the visitors. You mentioning the snowy climate made me realize that even on a global scale, I bet the Northern Greens are right up there in terms of wintry vibe and days with snow in the air. We’re not going to see many multiple hundreds of inches of snow a season the way that some of the high elevation and/or coastal ranges are, but there probably aren’t going to be a ton of places that vastly exceed 100+ days with some sort of snowfall the way it happens around here. My guess would be places like some of the BC coastal ranges, Hokkaido, certain lake-effect spots, etc. may see a greater number of snowy days, but between being downwind of the Great Lakes and near the ocean, we’re pretty well positioned to get a lot of moisture throughout the winter. I did a quick check through CoCoRaHS and saw that we’ve already had 44 days with snow this season, and there’s still a month to go before we hit the halfway mark.

Event totals: 0.5” Snow/0.35” L.E. Details from the 1:00 P.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.1 inches New Liquid: 0.06 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 1.7 Snow Density: 60.0% H2O Temperature: 36.1 F Sky: Cloudy Snow at the stake: 7.5 inches

Sleet can definitely be a nice addition to bolster the pack, and even freezing rain can do it, but the latter often brings any crust issues right back. This storm certainly seems like it could contribute to the pack though – our forecast here only has two or three tenths of rain, and then it’s back to snow early tomorrow morning. I did have to stick to lower angle terrain in the Bolton BC yesterday for the best turns, since the steeper you went, the more you’d touch down on the old base, but the skiing was quite good. People were definitely skiing steeper lines if they weren’t as picky as me, but since it’s only backcountry levels of traffic, the snow was still holding up reasonably well on those pitches. The biggest issues I found were just some stream crossings where the rains had blown out the usual snow bridges. From my depth checks I found 5-6” of powder at 2,000’ and roughly 6” at ~2,700’ at the Bryant Cabin. Even though the systems over the past week have been on the smaller side, the snow just kept building up, and the scene was quite wintry. I didn’t check out the alpine trails, but out on the Nordic/Backcountry side and in the Village, the feel was very midwinter and all the holiday visitors really seemed to be having fun on the good snow and taking in the wintry vibe. I’ve added a couple of shots from yesterday’s tour below – it’s typically a good sign when you drop you skis into a couple inches of powder in the parking lot and can get skinning right from there.

Event totals: 0.4” Snow/0.19” L.E. Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.4 inches New Liquid: 0.19 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 2.1 Snow Density: 47.5% H2O Temperature: 28.4 F Sky: Sleet/Snow Snow at the stake: 7.5 inches

LOL, well your statement sort of says it all. Anyway, despite the fact that much of the discussion in the December thread just bemoans cutter after cutter after cutter as if every storm was the same, this upcoming system is nothing like the previous one – there’s a lot more front end frozen and less liquid. The NOHRSC plot for our site essentially shows no real change coming from this event with respect to snowpack depth or snowpack water content, so this storm could easily be a net gain for the snowpack in some places. Most of the deterministic model runs shown snow up here to varying degrees coming up in their next several systems, so unless they’re all out to lunch there should be additions coming to the snowpack and improvements in the off piste conditions that would definitely warrant discussion. I was actually out for a tour on the Bolton Backcountry Network today to see how the powder has been building after these past four rounds of snow, and there’s already some nice skiing in the lower angle terrain. I’ll send along an update when I get a chance, but there are some nice conditions to potentially build on with these upcoming systems. The deep base we’ve got right now is a great example of why it’s so good to have a big November like we did.

I checked on the available 7-day totals to get a sense for how much snow the Vermont ski areas have seen since the warm part of last weekend’s system. North to south listings are below: Jay Peak: 12” Burke: 2” Smuggler’s Notch: 10” Stowe: 3” Bolton Valley: 7” Pico: 5” Killington: 5” Bromley: 3” Magic Mountain: 2” Mount Snow: 2” I’m not sure that the Stowe total makes much sense based on the surrounding areas, but that’s what they’ve got so maybe there was less snow on the east side of the spine for some reason?

I see that we’ve got Winter Weather Advisories up ahead of the next storm to affect the area, which has been named Winter Storm Eboni. Similar to the storm from Dec 20-22, surface low pressure is passing to the west of the New England, but this one has more anticipated frozen precipitation on the front side. Hence we’ve got more widespread advisories throughout the region. Related maps from the BTV NWS are below:

Event totals: 1.3” Snow/0.05” L.E. Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.5 inches New Liquid: 0.01 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 50.0 Snow Density: 2.0% H2O Temperature: 14.4 F Sky: Flurries Snow at the stake: 8.0 inches

Event totals: 0.8” Snow/0.04” L.E. Details from the 10:00 P.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.8 inches New Liquid: 0.04 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 20.0 Snow Density: 5.0% H2O Temperature: 26.4 F Sky: Light Snow (1 to 2 mm flakes) Snow at the stake: 8.0 inches