J.Spin

Event totals: 0.1” Snow/1.16” L.E. I didn’t see any snow accumulation on the front end of this system, but we’re getting some now on the back side. Snowfall was actually fairly heavy with difficult driving visibility in the Burlington area when I was leaving this evening, but it was still warm enough that it was only accumulating on the roads in certain areas. Details from the 6:00 P.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.1 inches New Liquid: 0.04 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 2.5 Snow Density: 40.0% H2O Temperature: 34.3 F Sky: Light Snow (2 to 8 mm flakes) Snow at the stake: 26.0 inches

Below are the latest maps from the BTV NWS associated with the effects of Winter Storm Indra. The Winter Weather Advisories are much more expansive now, but projected accumulations are fairly similar with an inch or two in the north on the front end of the system.

Well, if you’re serious about the discussion I think it’s important to specify locations in your comments, since this system is going to have dramatically different effects in different parts of the Northeast. As folks have noted in the replies, up here in the mountains of NVT where there’s going to be frozen precipitation added to the pack on the front and back ends of the system, the amount of rain is substantially less, and temperatures are in the 30s F, the effects are going to be quite different than farther south. If you want an objective analysis of the effects on the snowpack for this event, look at the NOHRSC plot I posted; indeed it suggests a few inches of settling in the pack, which is absolutely expected. But the projected melt rate doesn’t even move from zero, and the total liquid in the snowpack is essentially the same after the event as it was before. Assessing the effects of warmth and precipitation on the snowpack can certainly be a challenge with so many factors to consider, but the plots try to take all those factors into consideration.

If you’re ever unsure of how a mixed system is going to affect the snowpack and want an objective analysis of the results without all the silly weenie stuff, just go the NOHRSC plots that Ginx told us about. https://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/interactive/html/map.html They’re not necessarily perfect for every nuance of every system, but from what I’ve seen for our site in comparison to my empirical observations, their modeling is quite good. You can use the map to check on whatever locations you’d like, but you can see from the plot for our site that the effects of the system are expected to be pretty inconsequential as folks have been saying. The red “Snow Melt Rate” line doesn’t even blip with this event, which speaks volumes. And this is for our site in the valley - imagine how insignificant it is for the mountains where the snowpack is more than doubled in places:

That seems about right. Actually, when I saw the initial inquiry about the snowpack in the north country being lost, it seemed so obscenely obtuse that the only appropriate response had to be Dendrite’s image:

I just saw on The Weather Channel that we’re under a Winter Weather Advisory ahead of the next system, which has been named Winter Storm Indra. It looks like the projected snow accumulations map covers the front end of the system, and it suggests an inch or two of snow.

Event totals: 15.2” Snow/1.52” L.E. The sky is starting to clear out, so the above values should represent the final totals for Winter Storm Harper here at our location. With the addition of today’s snowfall, winter 2018-2019 now takes over top spot for season snowfall to this date in my data set. I thought it was 2007-2008 that held the record to this date being the bigger overall snowfall season, but it was actually 2008-2009 that was highest on snowfall at this point in the season. Details from the 8:00 P.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.2 inches New Liquid: 0.02 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 10.0 Snow Density: 10.0% H2O Temperature: 3.0 F Sky: Partly Cloudy Snow at the stake: 31.0 inches

We headed out yesterday for some storm turns since today seemed like it was going to be colder and windier. We stuck to Timberline for the entire afternoon, and the depth of the powder seemed to range from 15 to 25 inches. I’d say the low end values would represent what had come from just Winter Storm Harper, with the deeper areas including snows from previous storm cycles. Anything in that range of depths was more than enough to keep you floating though, since it was fairly hearty mid weight powder. Off piste coverage is of course excellent, and with the storm cycles we’ve had recently it’s just been resurfacing after resurfacing. Those aspects, combined with all the new snow meant that you needed steep pitches to really keep moving, so it was a day for steep and deep. And, that’s just what we focused on all afternoon. That’s certainly the stuff to hit right now if you head out. I’ve got a few shots from the day below, and the text and additional images at in the full report on our website.

On that note I’ve got some interesting information from my data set. With a couple of decent January storms I’ve been wondering if 2018-2019 would be creeping back up on the snowfall pace of seasons such as 2007-2008 and 2008-2009. This season’s snowfall to date just rolled past 2007-2008 with this storm, and as of today’s noon observations, it has now caught up to dead even with 2008-2009 at 112.4”, which means it’s now tied for the record for snowfall to date. Snow is still accumulation out there now though, so this season will actually move ahead of 2008-2009 today. My data set is fairly small at only a dozen years or so, but even over a somewhat longer term, we know 2007-2008 and 2008-2009 are fairly robust snowfall seasons, so that puts this season up there with the big dogs, at least to this point.

Event totals: 15.0” Snow/1.50” L.E. Details from the 12:00 P.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.4 inches New Liquid: 0.04 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 10.0 Snow Density: 10.0% H2O Temperature: 3.0 F Sky: Light Snow (1 to 3 mm flakes) Snow at the stake: 31.5 inches

I was discussing with my wife yesterday about what the snow depth at the Mt. Mansfield Stake might be today based on where it was and the storm report, and figured it would be around the 80 inch mark. That’s actually right where the latest report came in, which is great for mid to late January.

Here’s the north to south listing of available totals I’ve seen from the Vermont ski areas for Winter Storm Harper using 48 to 72 hour totals or reported storm totals if available. Jay Peak: 24” Burke: 20” Smuggler’s Notch: 25” Stowe: 18” Bolton Valley: 21” Mad River Glen: 18” Sugarbush: 20” Middlebury: 24” Suicide Six: 25” Pico: 20” Killington: 20” Okemo: 18” Bromley: 19” Magic Mountain: 19” Stratton: 19” Mount Snow: 14”

Event totals: 14.6” Snow/1.46” L.E. Despite some slight ups and downs in the snow ratios, you really can’t hold tighter to 10 to 1 than this event has done at our site – liquid is one tenth of the snow right on to the hundredth of an inch as of this morning. We’re still getting some snow, and in their AFD the BTV NWS says the lingering snow from the departing storm is expected to last through much of the day. So the above may not represent the final storm total, but it’s what we’ve got as of this morning. Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.3 inches New Liquid: 0.03 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 10.0 Snow Density: 10.0% H2O Temperature: -5.8 F Sky: Light Snow (1 to 2 mm flakes) Snow at the stake: 31.0 inches

Event totals: 14.6” Snow/1.46” L.E. Despite some slight ups and downs in the snow ratios, you really can’t hold tighter to 10 to 1 than this event has done at our site – liquid is one tenth of the snow right on to the hundredth of an inch as of this morning. We’re still getting some snow, and in their AFD the BTV NWS says the lingering snow from the departing storm is expected to last through much of the day. So the above may not represent the final storm total, but it’s what we’ve got as of this morning. Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.3 inches New Liquid: 0.03 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 10.0 Snow Density: 10.0% H2O Temperature: -5.8 F Sky: Light Snow (1 to 2 mm flakes) Snow at the stake: 31.0 inches

Event totals: 14.3” Snow/1.43” L.E. Details from the 10:00 P.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.2 inches New Liquid: 0.01 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 20.0 Snow Density: 5.0% H2O Temperature: -2.6 F Sky: Light Snow (1 mm flakes) Snow at the stake: 31.0 inches

Event totals: 14.1” Snow/1.42” L.E. Even with bouts of larger flakes today, the overall accumulation has remained fairly dense and from 6:00 A.M. to 3:00 P.M. it came in with a ratio of 9.4 to 1 (10.7% H2O). Details from the 3:00 P.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 6.0 inches New Liquid: 0.64 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 9.4 Snow Density: 10.7% H2O Temperature: 3.7 F Sky: Light Snow (1 to 10 mm flakes) Snow at the stake: 31.5 inches

Yes, we’re actually right at 30” now – that’s the top of my main stake, so I had to insert the taller one now since it could easily go over. This snow has been around 10% H2O as well, so it’s not settling a ton.

I just checked and the storm total is 12.4” through 11:00 A.M. here at the house.

I’ve got the latest BTV NWS projected accumulations map below. At least from what I’ve seen so far at our site, the forecast numbers look like they’d be just about right assuming a similar block of snowfall/ratios to what we had overnight.

Event totals: 8.1” Snow/0.78” L.E. It looks like snowfall generally was running in the 1”/hr. range overnight. Although the flakes were all quite small (1-3 mm) and grainy at observations time, we’ve actually got some larger ones up to 15 mm falling now. The snow density overall was a bit above the 10% H2O I was getting last night, and waking through the snow during observations it certainly had some upside down feel, so I think there were some larger flakes in the stack at some point overnight as well. Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 6.6 inches New Liquid: 0.63 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 10.5 Snow Density: 9.5% H2O Temperature: 10.9 F Sky: Snow (1 to 3 mm flakes) Snow at the stake: 26.0 inches

Event totals: 1.5” Snow/0.15” L.E. Details from the 12:00 A.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.8 inches New Liquid: 0.08 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 10.0 Snow Density: 10.0% H2O Temperature: 9.5 F Sky: Light Snow (1 to 3 mm flakes) Snow at the stake: 20.0 inches

Event totals: 1.5” Snow/0.15” L.E. Details from the 12:00 A.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.8 inches New Liquid: 0.08 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 10.0 Snow Density: 10.0% H2O Temperature: 9.5 F Sky: Light Snow (1 to 3 mm flakes) Snow at the stake: 20.0 inches

Event totals: 0.7” Snow/0.07” L.E. Details from the 6:00 P.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.7 inches New Liquid: 0.07 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 10.0 Snow Density: 10.0% H2O Temperature: 5.5 F Sky: Light Snow (1 to 6 mm flakes) Snow at the stake: 19.5 inches

Event totals: 0.7” Snow/0.07” L.E. Details from the 6:00 P.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.7 inches New Liquid: 0.07 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 10.0 Snow Density: 10.0% H2O Temperature: 5.5 F Sky: Light Snow (1 to 6 mm flakes) Snow at the stake: 19.5 inches

I’ve added the afternoon map updates from the BTV NWS below for Winter Storm Harper. There was a Winter Weather Advisory out near the Saint Lawrence Valley, but that been filled in with a Winter Storm Warning now, so that’s the level of advisory across the whole area. The point forecast here suggests total accumulation in the 12-20” range, which seems to jive fine with the latest projected accumulations map.