J.Spin

Event totals: 9.9” Snow/1.19” L.E. Details from the 12:00 A.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 2.3 inches New Liquid: 0.22 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 10.5 Snow Density: 9.6% H2O Temperature: 30.4 F Sky: Light Snow (2 to 6 mm flakes) Snow at the stake: 18.5 inches

You are absolutely right about the change. It’s been small rimed flakes and graupel most of the day, and the density of my past three sets of observations with snow in the 10-13% H2O range definitely attests to that. It was right around 9:30 P.M. when the structure of the flakes changed here. I can’t recall the last time I had to run the snow blower, since we’ve simply been driving and packing down all these storms for probably about a month, but this storm has been large enough (passing 1” L.E. now) that it was finally time. I was out there clearing the driveway when the change happened, and it was very obvious. I’ll be taking my next set of observations at midnight, and the density should definitely be coming down. Unfortunately this next core will be a mix of the dense snow and this potentially lighter snow, but we’ll see what it says. Anyway, this is just what we like – perfect right-side-up deposition for those powder turns. Ty and I popped up to Bolton for a few runs this afternoon and indeed the snow was dense, but boy was it a resurfacing. We were only on the lower mountain because Vista was on wind hold, but if you were on the new snow there was no touching the subsurface. You typically sunk into the powder just a few inches anyway because of the density. I’ll post a report and a few pictures when I get a chance.

Event totals: 7.6” Snow/0.97” L.E. Details from the 6:00 P.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 1.6 inches New Liquid: 0.21 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 7.6 Snow Density: 13.1% H2O Temperature: 33.6 F Sky: Light Snow (2 to 8 mm flakes) Snow at the stake: 16.5 inches

Event totals: 7.6” Snow/0.97” L.E. Details from the 6:00 P.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 1.6 inches New Liquid: 0.21 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 7.6 Snow Density: 13.1% H2O Temperature: 33.6 F Sky: Light Snow (2 to 8 mm flakes) Snow at the stake: 16.5 inches

Event totals: 6.0” Snow/0.76” L.E. Unlike the larger flakes that came down before dawn today, much of the morning here at the house has seen smaller, more synoptic-like flakes. Consistent with the flake size and temperatures hovering up and down around the freezing mark, snow density was 11.1% H2O. Snowfall has been quite consistent throughout the period though, running in the ½”/hr. range. Details from the 12:00 P.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 2.7 inches New Liquid: 0.30 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 9.0 Snow Density: 11.1% H2O Temperature: 33.8 F Sky: Light Snow (1 to 5 mm flakes) Snow at the stake: 16.0 inches

Event totals: 6.0” Snow/0.76” L.E. Unlike the larger flakes that came down before dawn today, much of the morning here at the house has seen smaller, more synoptic-like flakes. Consistent with the flake size and temperatures hovering up and down around the freezing mark, snow density was 11.1% H2O. Snowfall has been quite consistent throughout the period though, running in the ½”/hr. range. Details from the 12:00 P.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 2.7 inches New Liquid: 0.30 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 9.0 Snow Density: 11.1% H2O Temperature: 33.8 F Sky: Light Snow (1 to 5 mm flakes) Snow at the stake: 16.0 inches

With the midmorning update from the BTV NWS, there have been some upgrades to the advisories and snow maps. Additional Winter Storm Warnings have been added as noted in the discussion text below due to accumulations that have already taken place: AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Burlington VT 1041 AM EST Wed Jan 9 2019 .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 1027 AM EST Wednesday...Winter Storm Warnings and Winter Weather Advisories remain in place across the entire area. Several changes to the forecast this morning as snow reports come in. Winter Weather Advisories have been upgraded to Warnings for Northern Franklin in New York, western Chittenden and western Franklin in Vermont, and for Windsor and Orange in Vermont. The reason is that we`ve already got reports of 4 to 6 inches of heavy wet snow and with more snow expected over the next hour of so we`ll push the 6 inches in 12 hours criteria. Power outages are already starting to creep up and with low snow ratios this morning I anticipate some snow loading to continue to become an issue for some locations. The projected accumulations map does have some of that 18-24” shading along the spine now, which would be more consistent with the point forecasts from earlier. The high end of the mountain point forecasts around here are actually getting close to 30 inches now, on top of what has already fallen, which would actually be getting up to that next tier, but the current map is only through 7:00 P.M. tomorrow. Today Snow. Steady temperature around 23. Windy, with a northwest wind 25 to 30 mph increasing to 34 to 39 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total daytime snow accumulation of 5 to 9 inches possible. Tonight Snow. Low around 13. Wind chill values as low as -6. Windy, with a northwest wind 32 to 37 mph decreasing to 26 to 31 mph after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 4 to 8 inches possible. Thursday Snow showers. Temperature falling to around 4 by 5pm. Wind chill values as low as -23. Windy, with a northwest wind 36 to 38 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible. Thursday Night Snow showers likely, mainly before 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around -4. Wind chill values as low as -27. Blustery, with a northwest wind 22 to 24 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible. Friday A 30 percent chance of snow showers before 9am. Partly sunny and cold, with a high near 8. Blustery, with a northwest wind 20 to 24 mph. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.

I’ve added updated maps from the BTV NWS below. There’s definitely been an expansion of some Winter Storm Warnings in the region, and their projected accumulations map is fairly similar to the previous version, with some tweaks here and there.

Event totals: 3.3” Snow/0.46” L.E. Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 1.9 inches New Liquid: 0.19 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 10.0 Snow Density: 10.0% H2O Temperature: 33.8 F Sky: Snow (5 to 10 mm flakes) Snow at the stake: 14.0 inches

Event totals: 3.3” Snow/0.46” L.E. Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 1.9 inches New Liquid: 0.19 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 10.0 Snow Density: 10.0% H2O Temperature: 33.8 F Sky: Snow (5 to 10 mm flakes) Snow at the stake: 14.0 inches

I didn’t see any obvious changes in the BTV NWS advisories map, but the projected accumulations map has seen an update with a much larger area of 12-18” indicated now along the spine of the Central/Northern Greens. The point forecast for our site is in the 8-15” range through Thursday night, but it does jump up pretty quickly with elevation around here – point forecasts along the ridgelines are basically 1 to 2 feet, so it wouldn’t be surprising to see some of that next tier of shading appear in the maps if that holds.

Event totals: 1.4” Snow/0.27” L.E. We’ve had a mixture of snow and sleet this evening, with just a light mixture of pellets and snow grains coming down at the 10:00 P.M. observations. Details from the 10:00 P.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.4 inches New Liquid: 0.17 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 2.4 Snow Density: 42.5% H2O Temperature: 32.9 F Sky: Light snow/sleet Snow at the stake: 12.0 inches

Event totals: 1.4” Snow/0.27” L.E. We’ve had a mixture of snow and sleet this evening, with just a light mixture of pellets and snow grains coming down at the 10:00 P.M. observations. Details from the 10:00 P.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.4 inches New Liquid: 0.17 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 2.4 Snow Density: 42.5% H2O Temperature: 32.9 F Sky: Light snow/sleet Snow at the stake: 12.0 inches

After our precipitation lull today with just an occasional small flake, some sleet started up about 15 to 30 minutes ago, and now there’s a lot of snow in there as well with some huge flakes. The precipitation is pretty heavy with an amalgam of pellets, granular flakes, and some huge flakes up to an inch or an inch and a half in diameter. You can see on the radar the interesting assortment of precipitation types that came in with that impulse of moisture from the south:

Thanks for the update PF – it’s good to know they are using local observations. I wonder if any resorts have tried any elements of remote reporting yet? Most resorts have a lot of staff on hand for various duties that could be used for observations, but I guess some sort of remote reporting could be needed in certain situations.

I was about to send along the BTV NWS advisories map from earlier that had us under a Winter Weather Advisory, but I guess that’s moot now because I just got a text alert that we’re going under a Winter Storm Warning. It looks like the latest projected accumulations map is still similar to what PF posted, with a large are of 8-12” shown in the Northern Greens along the spine, and some 12-18” shading along the peaks.

Event totals: 1.0” Snow/0.10” L.E. We picked up another tenth of an inch of snow today through 4:00 P.M. observations. I was initially thinking of keeping the warm frontal snows as their own event because of the substantial lull in precipitation today around here, but it really seems like that was just the warm front associated with this elongated system, so I guess it should be part of the larger event. Details from the 4:00 P.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.1 inches New Liquid: Trace Temperature: 31.5 F Sky: Cloudy Snow at the stake: 12.0 inches

It does sound like they could be using some sort of approach like that – I did a quick search and found the article below on the icecoast reddit: https://www.reddit.com/r/icecoast/comments/a1hwk9/whats_going_on_at_stowe/ It doesn’t confirm that methodology, but it seems like they’re sort of thinking the same thing in that discussion. If that’s how the snow reports are generated that’s really thinking outside the box though; it would never have occurred to me in a million years to try to do something like that remotely (which is what I guess you’d have to do if you don’t have on-site personnel). Maybe you could do something along the lines of using radar-indicated precipitation totals and similar resources. You could try to model the snowfall, but for a specific site I’d want to have the empirical data for many seasons and refine the model to fit that specific locale to make it as robust as possible.

Indeed, as you’ve mentioned before, the snowfall at the two sites probably isn’t too dissimilar overall. I think Alex’s site has another 1,000’ of vertical or something like that, which is quite substantial when it comes to marginal temperature situations. It’s quite a cold spot as well. It’s also closer to the coast, so it gets in on those coastal systems that might be a bit east affecting NH/ME a bit more. Over here at our site we’ve got a little more west longitude to help if a system is passing through New England, but by far the biggest factor here has got to be that 4,000’ wall we know as the Green Mountain Spine and being very close to it. I almost replied about the upslope in the other thread, but I think I saw a few folks building crosses for some of us in one of the back corners. I did see even the BTV NWS talking about the significant upslope potential in their recent discussion, so it’s certainly on their radar: AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Burlington VT 1045 AM EST Tue Jan 8 2019 .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 1039 AM EST Tuesday... Eventually the cold air moves in for Wednesday and as northwest flow becomes established...there will be a noticeable increase in precipitation...especially over the mountains. Situation will need to be monitored as this will be the start of an extended period of upslope snows and we could be looking at headlines for that event.

With the wind redepositing the snow, some variation in the snowfall density, and previous snow around as well, it was certainly challenging to get a good estimate. Also, I was snowboarding, so I didn’t have my measurement ski pole with me to gauge and the feel of the snow is going to be different than when I’m on my skis, so there were some additional factors in my determination. I think 4-5” by the end of the day would have been a great estimate though. We certainly were finding up to a foot in areas that hadn’t been touched in a while, and those areas were really nice. Have you talked about any of the new systems and procedures that the resort is using for snow measurement here in the forum at all (it’s possible I missed the discussion if it happened)? Obviously no pressure if aspects of it are not meant for public release/disclosure, but as an avid snowfall recorder and Stowe skier I’d certainly be interested in hearing any updates.

Event totals: 0.9” Snow/0.10” L.E. Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.9 inches New Liquid: 0.10 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 9.0 Snow Density: 11.1% H2O Temperature: 23.7 F Sky: Cloudy Snow at the stake: 12.0 inches

Event totals: 0.9” Snow/0.10” L.E. Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.9 inches New Liquid: 0.10 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 9.0 Snow Density: 11.1% H2O Temperature: 23.7 F Sky: Cloudy Snow at the stake: 12.0 inches

The BTV NWS has Winter Weather Advisories up ahead of the storm expected to move into the area tonight. Expected accumulations are a couple of inches or so followed by a bit of mixed precipitation. Latest maps are below:

Based on my numbers we’re still ahead of average on snowfall here along the spine on the Northern Greens – we’ve eroded the November surplus a bit, but the overall number still comes out ahead. Here are the snowfall surpluses and deficits by month (January is of course up to this date), along with where we are on the overall season: October: +1.8” November: +21.6” December: -10.4” January: +2.2” Overall: +15.2”

We were at Stowe yesterday afternoon so I can pass along a snow update and some pictures. The snowfall started in the wee hours of the morning and then ramped up later in the day, so there was plenty of fresh snow by the time we got to the mountain in the afternoon. At least from what I saw at our house, there were various fluctuations in the snow density based on flake size, and on the mountain it seemed to equate to roughly medium weight powder (say something in the 6 to 10% H2O range) overall. The wind picked up in the afternoon, so there may have been some additional density and distribution effects from that as well, but it was 95% bottomless where we were riding in the Meadows area. Unless you were specifically choosing a scoured line, you weren’t really having to worry about touching down on the old surface in that area based on the snow density and constant refills. I was somewhat surprised to see Stowe reporting just a 3-inch total for the past 48 hours, because what we were riding in seemed much more like 4 to 6 inches, and up to a foot in some sheltered spots, but I see Smugg’s with a 4-inch total, so it’s probably just a report on the conservative side. I was snowboarding yesterday because that’s the group I was assigned with my younger son, but it was a sweet day to be on the board. A few pictures are below, and the full report is linked above: