J.Spin

Yes, a great contender. Mount Ascutney has some impressive vertical relief (2,270’ of clean prominence via Peakbagger), and indeed the 3,130’ peak looks quite imposing when you’re traveling in the immediate valleys around there. The most recent annual snowfall average I have for Ascutney on my Vermont ski areas page is 175”, which is pretty paltry for a 3,000’+ location in NNE. Actually, while I was there I saw a few other annual snowfall numbers from the southern part of the state that would certainly be contenders as well depending on the elevations these numbers are taken from: Bromley (145″) Magic Mountain (145″) Mount Snow (158″)

Yeah, when thinking in terms of elevation, there’s a phrase people use to describe the snowfall around here:

If this is it for snow we’ll be at 142.1” on the season, coming in about 10% below average, so roughly in line with your anecdotal thoughts for the area. I guess we were sort of “due” for something below average, because I just ran the numbers, and the previous three seasons prior to this one averaged 182.3”, which is a solid run. This season has been interesting for its late season events – this is the first time we’ve had three accumulating storms in May, and the first time we’ve ever recorded more snow in May than in April.

It was great the way the storm had pulled away to brilliant blue May skies by morning – with another amazing aspect being that the temperatures were in the 20s F, so the snow wasn’t even melting in that sunshine.

A few shots from the Bolton Valley area today:

From the latest Mt. Mansfield Snow Depth Plot at Matthew Parrilla’s site, you can really see how the Mansfield snowpack has sort of been toddling along at 60 inches or so since way back in the beginning of February. There were a couple of spikes up into the 70 to 80-inch range, but it’s really been pretty steady for over three months now. It’s not in record territory or anything, but it’s certainly above average (by more than two feet) with the help of the fairly cool April and May.

Here’s the elevation profile for accumulations I saw for this most recent storm in the Bolton Valley area this morning: 340’: 0.5” 1,000’: 1” 1,500’: 2” 2,000’: 3-4” 2,500’: 7-8” 2,800’: 8-9” 3,100’: 9-10” As you can see, the largest increases in depths seemed to come from a bit below 2,000’ up to about the 2,500’ range before tapering down. The storm was probably mostly snow above 2,500’, and with 1.21” of L.E. down here at the house, it was a decent resurfacing above 2,000’, and a very solid, “no worries” type of resurfacing above 2,500’. Essentially all the snow above 1,500’ was winter-dry, and temperatures were still in the 20s F this morning from probably 1,500’ on up. I’ll have to look back at all the April and May storms we’ve had, but this was some of the driest/wintriest snow I can recall in the past few storms.

Event totals: 0.9” Snow/1.10” L.E. This has been an impressively moist system for the relatively short time it’s been affecting the area – I was out for an MTB ride midafternoon and it was just starting to rain, and now we’ve already had 1.10” of liquid equivalent. At elevations where it’s been all, or mostly snow, it’s going to be quite a substantial resurfacing of the slopes. We’re supposed to drop to around the freezing mark down here in the valley, and lows are projected in the 20s F at elevation, so we’ll have to see how much the snow dries out and how much more falls with respect to the potential for quality turns. Details from the 8:00 P.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.9 inches New Liquid: 0.37 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 2.4 Snow Density: 41.1% H2O Temperature: 32.9 F Sky: Light Snow (2 to 5 mm flakes) Snow at the stake: 1.0 inches

That’s good to know about the app. And yeah, this system has definitely had the right conditions around here for large flakes – we’ve had flakes up to 3” across at times this evening.

I saw your post about the Sugarbush mountain cams being down, and I didn’t see them either when I checked earlier today, but maybe the BTV NWS has access to them: Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 536 PM EDT Mon May 11 2020 Snow has been occurring with sfc temps in the 35 to 38 degree range. Web cam atop Sugarbush shows snowfall approaching 6 inches at 3900 feet, also noted Buels Gore at 2300 feet has several inches, so a few slick spots above 1800 feet is possible this evening acrs central/northern VT, into the NEK. We’ve had about 0.5-1.0” of accumulation here at the house at 500’ so far on just about all surfaces, so the snow level has actually dropped pretty low.

The rain just changed over to snow down here at the house, so snow levels are certainly dropping.

I haven’t really seen any talk about the snow with this next system, but with the way it’s pouring with temperatures dropping into the 30s F way down at this low in the valleys, I wasn’t surprised to see that it’s pounding snow at elevation. Both the Bolton Valley Vista Peak Cam and MRG Bird Cage Cam are showing impressive snowfall rates, and the local radar is certainly lit up:

Event totals: 2.9” Snow/0.37” L.E. Details from the 12:00 A.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.3 inches New Liquid: 0.04 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 7.5 Snow Density: 13.3% H2O Temperature: 38.8 F Sky: Flurries Snow at the stake: 1.5 inches

Event totals: 2.6” Snow/0.33” L.E. Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 2.3 inches New Liquid: 0.19 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 12.1 Snow Density: 8.3% H2O Temperature: 32.0 F Sky: Light Snow (2 to 10 mm flakes) Snow at the stake: 2.0 inches

Event totals: 0.3” Snow/0.14” L.E. Details from the 12:00 A.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.3 inches New Liquid: 0.08 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 3.8 Snow Density: 26.7% H2O Temperature: 33.6 F Sky: Light Snow (1 to 3 mm flakes) Snow at the stake: Trace

The forecast here does have a chance for snow tonight, but it started changing over and accumulating a bit before 11:00 P.M. It seems like the type of precipitation where the intensity matters a lot though, so it might not stay snow when the intensity drops until the temperature falls overnight.

April Totals Accumulating Storms: 3 Snowfall: 4.1” Liquid Equivalent: 4.46” In terms of storms, snowfall, and liquid, this April was slightly on the lean side of average, but it’s certainly not atypical. Of the 14 seasons in my data, it actually came in below the mean of 6-7” snowfall and well down into the bottom of the pack (4th from the bottom), but there are a number of seasons sitting just a few tenths of an inch above it, so it’s certainly clustered in with those 4-5” Aprils. Total liquid was a few tenths below the mean, and the number of accumulating snowstorms was right in the 3 to 4 range that we average each April.

I would have liked to see where accumulations stood as of this morning, but I had an appointment for car maintenance, so I couldn’t stop by the Village until about midday. I suspect snow levels dropped last night based on the fact that it was down into the 30s F at our place in the valley, but by the time I got up to Bolton today I’d say accumulations were generally back to what I reported yesterday. Also, with temperatures rising well above freezing, the snow was notably wetter than what was out there yesterday. The mountains were very scenic as the sun was coming out, so I grabbed a couple of images on the way back from BTV:

May isn’t typically a very warm month around here though, and the flora kind of support that in the way that the leaves aren’t fully out until we get to about June. We’re lucky in NNE in that we’ve got the latitude and elevations to pretty much keep the snow around until it actually gets warm. Aside from mud season, which depends on one’s immediate location, we get to skip over those March and April type periods in SNE that so many people seem to hate. I guess May here could be somewhat like April in SNE though.

From down here in this part of the Winooski Valley, you wouldn’t know that there was a solid amount of snow falling with this storm if it weren’t for some of the resources like Bolton’s webcams. I don’t think I’ve seen a flake down here at 500’, and even our local hills surrounding the valley that top out around 2,000’, don’t have signs of white on them. Seeing what was on the webcams though, I did take a trip up the access road to get a sense for what was going on with the accumulations. I knew the snow line had to be way up there, but I just kept climbing and climbing, and there were no signs of new snow anywhere. The first signs of old snow from the remaining winter snowpack were around 1,400’, but even at the Timberline Base at 1,500’, the precipitation was all rain. The rain didn’t even change over to snow until about 1,900’, just before I reached the Bolton Valley Village. That’s also right about where I saw the first accumulations of new snow taking hold. The snow accumulations picked up quickly with 1-2” at the main parking lots at 2,000’ and 2-3” at 2,100’ near the base of the main lifts. Here’s the full accumulations profile for this storm as of ~5:00 P.M. based on what I saw up to the Village and reports from reliable resources. It gives a pretty good sense for the elevation ranges with the largest jumps in accumulation, but on average it looks like once accumulations took hold, they increased by more than an inch per 100’ of elevation gain: 340’: 0” 500’: 0” 1,000’: 0” 1,500’: 0” 1,900’: 0-1“ 2,000’: 1-2” 2,100’: 2-3” 2,300’: 4-5” 2,500’: 8-9” 2,750’: 11-13” 3,000’: 13-14” 3,100’: 14-15” It was still dumping at the base when I left: …and the radar has shown continued precipitation tonight, so I wouldn’t be surprised at all to see those numbers increase a bit more by tomorrow.

It looks like I’ll be a bit too busy most of the day today to head up, but perhaps I’ll get a chance to check things out after in the late afternoon after my last meeting. From the BV web cams, I can see what looks like an inch or two at 2,100’, and maybe a couple more at 3,150’? PF did alert me to the fact that the resort reportedly closed to ski touring earlier this month, so once we learned about that we’ve been trying to honor it for the past couple of weeks during the height of the pandemic around here, even if Bolton isn’t strictly enforcing it as far as we know. We appear to be past our peak of infections around here, and indeed the governor is beginning to relax outdoor restrictions for businesses as of today: Expanding on Addendum 10, outdoor businesses, construction operations and recreation maintenance work may operate with a maximum of five total workers per location. (Effective April 27). https://governor.vermont.gov/press-release/new-order-governor-phil-scott-continues-phased-re-opening-expands-health-safety If restrictions are at that level for groups of five nonessential workers outdoors, one would think that ski touring should be acceptable for locals (not that it ever needed to be stopped in and of itself as recreation aside from issues of overcrowding at base areas). My wife and I were talking about the ski areas closing access the other day, and she was wondering when they would allow access again. I told her that realistically, they’re never likely to make an announcement on that. Out of season touring is really more of something that’s at your own risk and an activity the resorts that allow it sort of “tolerate” vs. “support” from what I’ve seen. I did just see a guy skinning right past the base area camera though as he headed out on a tour, and the governor’s announcement is clearly a sign that the state is beginning to relax outdoor restrictions. The general tenor there is that we can probably start picking up some of those outdoor activities that we’d been refraining from, especially for locals in the 10-mile distance window PF mentioned.

I haven’t seen much discussion in here yet, but I got a text message yesterday afternoon that we’ve been put under a Winter Weather Advisory in association with this next storm. The focus for the advisory appears to be for elevations above 1,000’ since they’re not expecting too much down here in the valley bottoms. The current BTV NWS advisory and projected accumulations maps are below:

The data concur – 6:00 A.M. observations were 5% H2O and 12:00 P.M. observations were around 3% H2O.

Event totals: 1.6” Snow/0.37” L.E. Details from the 12:00 P.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.7 inches New Liquid: 0.02 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 35.0 Snow Density: 2.9% H2O Temperature: 33.8 F Sky: Flurries Snow at the stake: 1.0 inches

Yeah, we had some steady snow with big flakes for a while there PF, and when I checked on the snowfall up above 3,000 on the Bolton Vista Peak Webcam, it was really impressive – visibility was down to one tower at times.