J.Spin

Haven’t we just had five seasons in a row of Novembers with average to above average snowfall though? We’ve also had a couple of ridiculously early starts to the winter snowpack (as in early November in the valleys) during that stretch as well. I can’t speak specifically to the temperatures, but they can’t have been that horrible if they produced snowfall and insane valley snowpack starts like that. Looking at my data, there hasn’t been a dud November (e.g. ’15-‘16, ‘10-‘11, ‘09-‘10, ‘06-‘07, etc.) in years, so it’s been quite an incredible run. I’m just not sure how much better we can expect the month to be than what we’ve recently seen; a poor November is probably going to be a shock to the system after the run we’ve been on over these past several years.

I suspect that ± 15% you’re mentioning is probably in the range of what 1 σ is for our area. Unfortunately, that highly anomalous 2015-2016 season, with its -2.38 σ deviation in snowfall still throws quite a wrench into a relatively small data set of just 15 seasons. So 1 σ is at 22.5% in the data set currently, but it keeps being whittled away by ~1% per year as the more “typical” seasons stack up. It was actually up in the 26-27% range after that season first hit. If that anomalous season is omitted, 1 σ is at 16.9% for the data set. Assuming that lower variance is closer to reality, the blockbuster-style years of 200”+ of snowfall are going to be relatively infrequent (only about once a decade or so), but ~70% of seasons at our site should be in the 135” – 190” range.

That view is probably going to be incredible when the leaves start to change to some autumn colors. I heard everything across the region (or is that country?) is unquestionably 2 to 3 weeks behind average pace, case closed, mic drop, peace out, greatest ever, sliced bread, etc., etc., etc. Fall foliage in that elevation range should be stellar by the end of the month when the colors finally start to pick up.

After I saw the map, I checked the CoCoRaHS liquid data for our site to see if what was plotted was a good representation for our area. We’re right in that strip of yellow along the spine of the Central/Northern Greens (specifically on the county line right where it bumps out above the “M” in Montpelier). That yellow shading represents the 8-10” range for liquid, and our data indicate 9.00” on the nose for that period at our site, so for that spot check, the map looks right on. That’s probably about average rainfall for our site during that period. A total of ~9” for that roughly two-month stretch would equate to ~54” for a year, which is just about what we seem to have for our annual liquid average. We do have some rainfall peaks in our data in June and October, but what we saw over those 60 days would certainly be an average representation on an annual scale.

It seems like it’s been pouring for hours, so I happened to check the radar and immediately LOLed at what I saw. That flow is shooting right through the Winooski gap in the spine as we often see. It’s actually felt quite raw today, almost like one of those days where it’s pouring in the valleys, but you can pop up to the hill for some fresh turns because it’s pounding at elevation. The temperatures aren’t actually down at those levels yet, but it sort of feels that way because we’re somewhat acclimated to warm season temps. It’s October though, so it could happen literally any day now.

The “Meh” seems appropriate, or maybe a “LOL” would be the right response. That initial “joke” comment was probably an impromptu remark for some sort of dramatic effect, but it definitely smacks of both arrogance and parochialism. It’s essentially writing off the vast majority of ski areas in the country as “a joke”. The top tier resorts in Central, and especially Northern Vermont easily compare head-to-head with the mid-tier resorts in the Rockies and throughout the west in terms of snowfall, terrain, amenities, infrastructure, etc., etc. People are out of touch with reality if they think that skiing out west is all Whistlers, Altas, and Squaw Valleys. But that’s the sort of stuff people see on their vacations, that’s where the “big” terrain is, and those are the spots that get all the hype. After years of living and skiing in the Northern Rockies on what is known as some of the best “cold smoke” snow in the country, I wouldn’t have moved back to NVT if I felt the skiing wasn’t on par with the typical skiing out there. As they seem to say in the forum, “some know, some don’t”, but for those that do know, I’m not sure how they can see PF’s reports and pictures, day after day throughout the season, and not realize the quality of the skiing on even a national scale. I’ll be sure to remind all my friends in Montana that if they’re not skiing at Big Sky or maybe Bridger, that they’re wasting their time because the other dozen or so great ski areas in the state are just a big "joke".

Oh man, I love them too. It was so exciting when even Bolton added them a few years back. There’s no more fumbling about trying to get your season’s pass out to show the ticket attendant; you just walk right up, go through the gate, and off you go. It’s so fantastic on storm days when you don’t have to deal with taking your gloves off, trying to find your pass, sitting there getting your hands wet and cold in the pounding snow. Then you’re trying to shove everything back in your pocket before you load on the lift, etc. It seems great from the resort’s perspective as well – they really don’t need anyone checking tickets at the lifts, and that has to be a great savings on the number of lift employees you’re paying. Most of the time at Bolton’s lifts there’s just the lift attendant to help you load and that’s it, although they do seem to have a roaming associate or two that circulate among some of the larger lifts to give it a bit more of a personal touch, manage the gating for traffic flow, etc. At a low-key place like Bolton where there are rarely lift queues, it really seems to run smoothly. People just stroll up to the lifts and essentially “check their own tickets” and hop on. Oh, and for kids that are having issues with getting their RFID pass in the detection zone, I recommend getting them a shell with an arm/shoulder pocket and putting the pass in there. That’s already putting the pass in an elevated, exposed spot, and then it’s easy to move one’s arm around to raise/lower the pass if you need to get it higher into the RFID detection zone.

Yes, definitely; somewhere down in the valley behind that tallest tree in the shot.

I checked my CoCoRaHS numbers and found 50.46” of liquid for the 365-day period. That’s less than 10% below average, and seems very consistent with what the map shows for our area.

I was leaving my office, looked out toward the Greens, and was struck by what I saw. You’ve got clouds in the 3,500’ – 4,000’ elevation range skimming along the summits, and for the first time in a while, the clouds have some of that “cold season” look. I see temperatures in the 40s F and winds near 40 F as well, so that makes sense.

Everyone gets sick of excessive heat and humidity as they get older; I see them talking about it all the time in our main subforum threads. With age, it just gets harder to handle extremes like that.

For January snowfall days, the data show that last season was quite impressive among the data set. It’s interesting because both total snowfall (41.0”) and number of storms (12) were rather average this past January, but boy did it snow for “days and days and days”. January is a long month with 31 days, and to get snow on 29 of them is well above the mean as the plot shows. Recording snow on 29 days of a month is actually the highest I see in my records, so that’s another feather in the cap of winter 2020-2021, which generally felt like an “average at best” type of season.

The November data for days with snowfall definitely prompted some great discussion, and brought to light how good November 2018 was around here. Next up in the progression is December, and while this past December was certainly lean on total snowfall, the data show that it was solid with respect to days with snow. Overall, the plot suggest that December is actually quite the dependable month in terms of snowfall days, with 2/3 of the month delivering new snow on average. That means the wintry vibe should generally be there, which is appreciated by visitors as the ski and holiday seasons build. December definitely represents a bump up from November, where the average is just over 1/3 of the month for days with snowfall. …and then of course there’s good ol’ 2015-2016 that everyone talks about, sticking out like a sore thumb!

Now you’re getting it. That’s why you want to winter in a place where there’s always snow. Based on the yearly schedule Phin seems to be following, he definitely gets it. Most of us up here in NNE are here because of the snow, not because we have some strange obsession with wanting to freeze our azzes off. I did have to include that “most” qualifier though… because I’m sure they’re out there.

I was thinking back on this conversation where we were trying to figure out the annual snowfall average for your place at Jay Peak. I’d totally forgotten about the co-op there, since it’s been out of commission for so long. That co-op is literally a representation of your back yard, so I think we can thank Tamarack for getting you a hard number on your annual snowfall average. Our estimates were certainly decent though.

I’d forgotten about that Jay Peak co-op site, so thanks for bringing it up. I’ve always found that the data from that site simply reinforce the season snowfall totals from Jay Peak Resort. PF’s meticulous observations from Mt. Mansfield and the elevation-dependent snowfall discussion we’ve had at Liftlines and here are the perfect primers for people to make the connection. A 40% increase in snowfall at PF’s ~3,000’ plot over his ~1,500’ plot is certainly within reason based on the numbers he’s discussed. If you scale that 1,500’ ratio proportionally for the ~2,000’ elevation differential between the Jay Peak co-op and the Jay Peak summit, what do you get? …~350”. If you ask me, that’s suspiciously consistent with the ~355” season snowfall average that they often report for their summit elevation. PF literally states in the quote above that the 3,500’ – 4,000’ elevations are where you start to get into that “next level stuff”. But you know, since it doesn’t happen in everybody’s back yard, I’m sure nobody in the Eastern U.S., especially a greedy, profit-driven, slant-sticking, snowfall-inflating ski resort, can average that much snow in a season. The numbers must be cooked independently at both the co-op and the resort summit so that they line up perfectly. That’s how the conspiracy is run up there.

Yeah, I’d say bwt’s and PF’s comments here help clarify it, and Tony’s got those hard numbers on the last page of that Liftlines thread from 40 years of snow data that Mont Sutton gave him. The largest discrepancy in the numbers seemed to be due to the fact that Mont Sutton has traditionally been measuring snowfall at their base – and it’s a relatively low base at 1,300’. On top of that, if they were collecting in a walled, “box-style” container, that can have undercatch issues as well. So, from what I’m seeing in the provided data, the best numbers on Mont Sutton for annual snowfall are: 1,300’: 184” 2,500’: 238” 2,900’: 250” 3,900’: ???” I’m assuming that 2,500’ for the “mid mountain” elevation, since I saw PF using it, but I’m not sure what’s considered “mid mountain” there. The reason the final number in my list above is only question marks is simple: Mont Sutton just doesn’t go that high. So think about that elevation difference between Jay Peak and Mont Sutton - Jay Peak has another thousand feet of vertical on Mont Sutton, and most of us assume that Jay Peak is measuring their summit snowfall numbers somewhere in leeward spots up near that 3,900’ elevation. What would Mont Sutton be recording for annual snowfall up near 3,900’ if they had that extra thousand feet of vertical? Perhaps something near 300”? It’s hard to say though; the orientation of the mountain and the local topography can make huge differences in snow accumulations, and everything suggests that Jay Peak has some serious optimization in that regard. Also note, as much as the annual snowfall totals seem to increase like clockwork as you head from south to north in Vermont, it’s not as if annual snowfall totals simply keep increasing as one continues to head north of the border. The totals increase all the way up the Green Mountain Spine until you get to Jay Peak, and then they start to drop off as you head north into the resorts of the Eastern Townships. Right over the border you’ve got Mont Sutton that may get 250” at their summit, farther off to the east there’s Owl’s Head that reports 175”, and head another hour north to Mont Orford and they report just 140” for annual snowfall. I can also say from first hand evidence of skiing all three of those Eastern Townships areas in a single trip, that the actual snow conditions and snowpack played out exactly as those annual snowfall numbers would suggest. Mont Sutton was by far the best in terms of snow, Owl’s Head represented a substantial drop from there, and then Mont Orford’s snow was definitely the worst. Once you head north of the Northern Greens, the next segment of the Green Mountains is the Canadian Green Mountains (click the link to see the area highlighted at Peakbagger). Why does annual snowfall drop off so drastically as one continues north of the border in the Canadian Greens? There are probably a number of reasons, but elevations only top out around 3,000’ in that area as we see for Mont Sutton, so that’s probably a factor. The Canadian Greens could be a bit more removed from Atlantic moisture, they may lack as much access to Great Lakes moisture, perhaps their orientation and topography are not as good, etc. I’m sure that’s another fun topic for conversation. On a final note, as much as a 250” annual snowfall number for Mont Sutton may seem a bit weak compared to its neighbor Jay Peak, it should be pointed out that 250” is way up there on a regional scale. You’re not going to find an annual snowfall number like that anywhere in the Eastern U.S. outside of the Northern and Central Greens. I’d guess Balsams might be in that range if they were in operation, but Mont Sutton is the only one I can think of around here.

I think we’ve had a rather typical summer up here in terms of temperatures if you average it all out. I believe this current hot spell is the 3rd one we’ve seen? I know there was at least one or two early hot spells back in May or June. I’m not sure if we’ve actually hit 90 F at our place or not, but we certainly haven’t had one of those classic stretches of midsummer highs in the 90s F that heats up the swimming holes sufficiently. I’m sure we would have hit one of our favorite spots or at least gone river tubing if we did. It may have been a timing issue in that heat in May or June just isn’t quite going to do it because the water is still too cold, and then July was on the cooler/rainier side. You have me thinking though; this may be the stretch to finally get out for some river tubing, even if we’re not getting into the 90s. With at least relatively warm overnight lows, it helps keep water temperatures up. We’re into August now, and we’re even passing that magic August 10th barrier when it really gets hard to have sufficient heat for that most comfortable swimming. These next couple of days may be about the last chance for high summer feel as you noted, because even above average temperatures past this point of the season can’t quite do it.

Yeah, I recorded 10 winter storms that month, with 8.60” of liquid. My liquid records only go back to 2010, but that’s the wettest November I see in there. In terms of winter storm distribution, the first one was right at the start of the month, but accumulations were minimal from what I see. The real show started a third of the way into the month, so that means the remaining nine storms were packed into roughly 20 days. That’s a very respectable pace of storms even for a midwinter month. Following up on the PF nostalgia with some shots from the month - once we got to the 10th, the hits just kept on coming: November 10th November 11th November 17th November 18th November 21st November 24th November 27th November 29th

Yeah, that was a solid November. Even down here in the valley bottom, the data show it. For our site I see that November 2019 was actually tops in the number of storms with 12, but November 2018 still had 10 storms, 18 days with snowfall, and almost 35” of snow down here in the valley. We’ve really had a solid run of Novembers as of late, and the data clearly show it. It might come as bit of a shock when one of those weaker Novembers comes around.

The November snowfall and snowpack at our site can certainly give an idea of what the month is like with respect to snow in the Northern Greens, but of course, data specifically from the higher elevations of the mountains is going to be even better when it comes to thinking about ski conditions. With that in mind, the plot below has the snowpack depth from the Mt. Mansfield Stake at Thanksgiving for all the years that are available in that data set. I think that snowpack depth at that time of year does have some utility with respect to what you asked about (trying to get a better idea of what late November looks like in terms of skiing around here in the Northern Greens). For folks that just want to know if there’s going to be any skiing, I don’t think the natural snowpack depth is too helpful. Manmade snow is going to guarantee that there’s at least some skiing, for those resorts with the snowmaking firepower and desire to open terrain, at least 90-95% of the time. The natural snowpack depth is essentially irrelevant when it comes to that aspect of the early season. The natural snow depth is definitely helpful in getting a sense for how much extra terrain might be open beyond the usual early season snowmaking routes, how much natural terrain might be open, what backcountry options there might be, etc. From depth alone, especially a single point, it’s hard to get a sense for the ski conditions because you don’t know if that depth is what just fell and there’s zero base below it, or it’s just the slushy accumulation that’s hanging on because it’s warmed up after an earlier storm came through, etc. At a certain threshold of snowpack depth (I’ll just throw out 20 inches as an initial value for discussion), you start to hit a point where it won’t matter if the snow just fell, if it’s melting remnants from a previous storm, if it’s fresh snow atop an established base, or whatever. At some point, there’s going to be enough natural snow in place that resorts are going to open additional terrain. -If one uses the 20” snowpack depth threshold, that would suggest you’re looking at expanded skiing in about 20% of seasons. I bet if we checked reports from those seasons in the plot where natural snow depth was ≥20”, you’re looking at substantial additional terrain being open for Thanksgiving. -Just based on first impressions, I think that snowpack of ≥20” is a virtual slam dunk for additional terrain being open at the resorts, so a snowpack threshold of 16” is also worth a look. With that threshold, you’re looking at about 30% of seasons with expanded skiing at Thanksgiving. -The lowest threshold that I think might be practical (and this is definitely pushing it with respect to natural snow terrain being able to support lift-served levels of skiers) is probably around the 12” mark. You can certainly pull it off on well-maintained moderate or low-angle terrain if the snow is dense, but this is definitely going to be pushing it for lift-served. Some resorts are more liberal than others are when it comes to doing this sort of stuff. That would put the occurrence of expanded skiing at Thanksgiving at about 40% of seasons. That is unquestionably a higher percentage than reality based on my years of skiing around here, but we’ll just throw it out there as an upper limit. Jay Peak does have that bit of extra snowfall bump above Mt. Mansfield, so they may be the closest of any resort to that percentage, but it’s still definitely an overestimate. I’ve roughly estimated the 24” snowpack depth threshold at the Mt. Mansfield Stake as when people seem to start venturing into the most amenable off piste areas (trees). Experience tells me that the point where skiing well-maintained trails begins is definitely below that depth, but I’m not sure how low. I can certainly look at some reports from past seasons to try to get a sense for it. When it comes to getting out for ski touring on low-angle, well-maintained, on-piste terrain with fat skis; that can certainly be done on less than 12” of snow without concern for hitting the ground. You can do that on 10” of snow easily, or even 8” without even bottoming out if the snow is reasonably dense. The mean depth at the Mt. Mansfield Stake on Thanksgiving is 10.7”, which suggests that in the appropriate spots at elevation, one should have a chance to get out for some natural terrain touring on, or at least around (due to the temperature inconsistencies at that time of year) Thanksgiving in 50% of seasons. I wouldn’t be surprised to find that to be the case if I checked my records; it sounds very plausible.

I put together a plot of November snow progression for each season at our site. The plot and some periods of note: -As people in the thread have mentioned, that 2018-2019 season (bright pink line) is noteworthy with respect to November snowpack. Once the snow on the ground returned on the 12th of November, there was no going back, right through the end of the month. The skiing was simply going off in the mountains: -During November in the 2019-2020 season (green line), the snow wasn’t quite as deep as the year before, but it was quite persistent. There was just that one dip down to a trace on the 11th, but there was coverage from the 7th of month onward. And that was in the valley of course. It wasn’t as deep as some Novembers, but there was plenty of snow for touring at elevation: -November in the 2014-2015 season (yellow line) had a strong finish. There was some great natural snow out there, even starting well before Thanksgiving: -Last season (orange line) was unique with that impressive period of snow at the start of the month. No other season has anything like that so early in November at our site during my period of record. Accumulations were nothing extravagant at elevation, but it was definitely enough to get out for some touring:

I do have the snow depth data for Thanksgiving at our site, so I can start with that. More directly relevant for conditions on the slopes will be snow depth at the Mt. Mansfield Stake of course, so I’ll see if I can get those data together later. For now though, here’s the Thanksgiving snow depth at our site. The past couple of seasons have had typical snow depths, with an inch or two of coverage, but as folks have indicated, Thanksgiving 2018 was up there with the deeper seasons. I have plots of the progression of snow depth at our site over the course of the month of November as well, and that gives one a better sense of the monthly progression, so I’ll try to put that together next.

Looking at snowfall days for November, we can see that they were slightly above average this past season. Although we don’t seem to get huge storms in November, it certainly comes across as quite a wintry month in terms of days with snow. This is especially true over the past four seasons, where on average; half the days of the month have had snow.

OK, I found the discussion that dove heavily into the differences between base and summit snowfall numbers for the Northern Greens. It was actually over in the Liftlines Skiing & Snowboard Forums at First Tracks!! Online Ski Magazine. The discussion began because Jay Peak recorded the most snowfall of any mountain in the lower 48 states during the 2014-2015 season: https://skivermont.com/skivt-blog/2015/04/13/ski-vermont-receives-most-snow-in-continental-us-during-2014-15-season/ Actually, Jay’s reported snowfall was only 357” that season, but all of the Western U.S. outside of Alaska had a rather poor winter in terms of snow. Looking through Tony Crocker’s numbers for the 2014-2015 ski season, even snowfall heavyweights like Alta and Grand Targhee were just pushing a bit above the 300” mark. Alyeska still recorded 478” of snowfall at their 2,750’ plot though, so that area was probably tops overall in the U.S. The snowiest season I can recall at Jay Peak was 2000-2001 when they recorded 513”, and I believe that was the same situation. I think that number beat out all the resorts in the lower 48 states, but again not Alyeska, which recorded 638” at the 1,400’ elevation. For some reason, Tony has 581” listed for Jay Peak in his 2000-2001 Ski Season Summary, so I’m not sure if he had to extrapolate some sort of summit number from a mid-elevation number, but he has the 513” number on his 2000-2001 Ski Season Analysis Page. In either case, it wouldn’t top Alyeska’s number, so it would remain a similar situation to 2014-2015. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jay_Peak_Resort#Snowfall So, in terms of the base vs. summit snowfall differential, what came up in the First Tracks discussion were a couple of things. There was confusion about where Jay Peak actually records their “summit” snowfall numbers. It’s obviously not the actual summit of Jay Peak, since like Mt. Mansfield, that’s just a windswept area of rocks. The collection spot is likely in a protected, leeward spot (or spots) near summit elevation where the summit snow collects. It would be a spot like PF’s 3,000’ snow plot, or where the Mt. Mansfield Stake sits at 3,700’. Unfortunately, Jay Peak doesn’t have a PF like Stowe does, or even a measurement camera like Sugarbush and Stowe are starting to use, so their actual system of measurement is rather obscure. The second thing that came up in the discussion, and what also helped drive the discussion toward the details about base/summit snowfall differentials, was the snowfall at Mont Sutton, which is just a bit to the north of Jay Peak across the Canada-U.S. border. People (Tony initially broached the topic) were confused as to why the annual snowfall totals (200” at Sutton) simply seem to fall off a cliff as you head north of the border. The difference between reported snowfall at Jay and Sutton is so stark, that people thought Sutton might be reporting base area snowfall. Anyway, eventually PF made it to the conversation, and talked thoroughly about the cause of the snowfall differential between the upper and lower mountain areas in the Northern Greens. I’d already pointed out in the thread that the big differential is not due to an elevational rain/snow line, and PF came in to explain some very cool upslope stuff involving snow ratios, relative humidity, and mountain orographics that only someone like him would piece together. If you like the meteorology aspects of mountain weather, especially as it pertains to snowfall, definitely check out the thread (linked below) and PF’s contributions. In terms of rough upper mountain/lower mountain snowfall differential numbers, here’s a quote from PF in that discussion: “I've done the numbers before and regardless of the type of winter, the upper mountain plot (3,014ft) will receive somewhere between 30-40% more than the base at 1,550ft. It’s almost fail-proof. If the upper plot gets 300", the base will be around 200" or at least that's the general association.” I suspect PF will jump into this discussion at some point, so if people have questions or want to expand on that discussion at First Tracks, we can do it here. Here’s the link to that thread: https://www.firsttracksonline.com/boards/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=11837