J.Spin

Nice PF, that showed up for me – looks great. It’s definitely more intense than what’s falling here in BTV.

I was walking back from giving lecture around noon and was going to comment that I was getting hit with frozen precipitation even way down here in BTV, so you know the mountains are getting plastered as PF’s observations would suggest. Now even BTV is totally over to frozen, so you know it’s a snow-producing temperature profile in the atmosphere all over the place. You can see Bolton even down at ~2,000’ is getting a good shot of accumulation:

There should be plenty of snow reports coming out of Lamoille County today. My wife was remote with her students today because of some COVID-19 cases at school, and most of her kids in Lamoille County were getting snow. It was great watching them cheering on the snow, and they would of course all take their devices and show what was going on outside. In some spots it was pounding huge flakes, and I think some of the most notable were coming out the Hyde Park area. As the radar suggested, that batch was just a bit north of our area, so I hadn’t seen any notable precipitation at our place beyond this morning’s accumulation. Driving toward BTV this morning though, it was pouring at times with some frozen in the drops, and I see there’s another pulse moving in:

There’s actually a push of moisture coming into the area right now from the WNW – the bulk looks a bit north of us and up toward you at the moment, but as it hits the spine we’ll have to see what happens.

Event totals: 0.1” Snow/0.02” L.E. At observations time this morning I found accumulation for the first time this season in the form of graupel. There was nothing present when I last checked in the evening, and nothing falling at the time, so it fell at some point between there and stuck around. This is also the first frozen precipitation I’ve observed at our site this season – we may have had some pellets as others reported around here during the October rounds of frozen, but nothing that I witnessed here. Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.1 inches New Liquid: Trace Temperature: 28.7 F Sky: Cloudy Snow at the stake: Trace

Yeah, the models have been showing this period for a while with some chances off the lakes, and even just down in the valley in BTV today it was fun to watch it play out. At times, it was bright and sunny, but you could look around and see streams of moisture off to the north or south and you, and you knew something was falling. At one point, I was walking between buildings on campus and we were in the midst of a very strong sunshower that had me hustling to get inside. When that heavier pulse came through BTV later in the afternoon, it seemed like it had a good trajectory for Mansfield. And, when it’s pouring as it comes through town, you know there’s a chance it will blow up when it hits the spine. We’re definitely lucky to have PF around on the mountain a lot of the time to document these events – webcams give you an idea of what’s going on, but it’s nothing like having an actual photographer with an interest in the mountain weather out there to report on that mountain magic.

PF, another batch is on the way - we just got hit with a bunch or rain and wind here in BTV, and the radar shows a strong pulse coming through. Not sure how high the snow levels are right now though.

It’s always great to get PF’s expert views on the industry and hear what it's like for others in the region. It’s interesting, because from our perspective up here in NVT, it feels like people have it so ridiculously good nowadays with theses Epic and Ikon types of passes. Season’s passes to places like Stowe and Sugarbush for something in the $500 - $700 range? That is laughably cheap, hilariously cheap from our perspective. To us, we look at those prices and think – isn’t that how much season’s passes to those resorts cost 10 to 20 years ago? These prices for passes are so cheap, that it has left us second-guessing ourselves over the past several seasons when we get even our corporate rate Bolton Valley season’s passes. Do we get our single mountain pass at a smaller resort, or get one of these other passes at roughly the same price that covers some of the largest, fanciest local resorts, as well as numerous other mountains? From the discussion here, skiing (and the associated travel, food, lodging, etc.) definitely comes across as expensive if one wants to do it occasionally, on demand, and from a long distance. I guess in many respects, an experience like that should cost a lot? I’m not sure how much it should cost, but the market does what it does. Truth be told, even as passionate as I am about skiing, if I had to do it from a great distance like some folks do, I’d probably write it off altogether and find another activity to do. Or, I’d rearrange my life to live locally in the mountains, which makes much more sense anyway from a financial, environmental, global impact, etc. perspective. Beyond the huge increase in costs that would come with trying to ski from afar, the travel, scheduling, and just overall “time suck” that comes with it just doesn’t seem worth it to me. The numbers, not to mention the average quality of the ski experience, are just too ridiculously lop-sided to ignore. With local season’s passes, we’re skiing for something like $10 a day, an almost inconsequential amount of fuel for travel, and nothing else unless we choose to spend it. In addition, we’re picking and choosing our days with the conditions we want, and avoiding the crap days. I guess for us, the closest ski decision of that type would be going on a long-distance ski vacation. We haven’t taken a trip out west to ski in years. A bit of it is because our academic schedules don’t really line up, but most of it is because it just feels like a waste of time and money. Why blow $5,000 (or more, I’m not really sure when it all comes together) to bring the family out west for a one-off trip where we might get better conditions and powder than what’s going on at that time locally in the Northern Greens. For that money, we can cover passes for the entire season, update any gear that needs replacing with top-quality stuff, eat at the lodge or other restaurants whenever we want, etc. Moreover, the winters here along the spine of the Northern Greens are typically so great for someone that likes consistent snow, great skiing, winter vibe, etc., that it’s not something you really want to “get away” from, unless one isn’t into that stuff. If weather forecasting got to the stage where I could guarantee the week I chose for a ski trip was going to be some sort of “thaw” week here at home and a massive powder week where I was going, then the calculation starts to get more interesting. However, I’ve been on enough ski trips out west with rather “ho hum” conditions to not make me want to roll the dice too often when I can just stay local for almost nothing and pick-and-choose the primo powder days or even “powder weeks” as they come. It’s hard to blame anyone from a distance for not wanting to take these types of regional ski trips when you look at how much it costs them. My friends (and others I see in this thread) get around the lodging issue by getting a share at a ski house for the season, but for the very casual, few times a year skier that doesn’t want to just suck up the long day trip of driving, skiing up here sounds like a really hard sell.

LOL, I was just looking out here from my office and saw that the upper half of Mansfield had disappeared behind what looked like snow, so I figured I would check in and give a heads up. It’s no surprise that you were already all over it!

Yeah, that’s often how our October or early November events happen. Even when the forecast indicates that snow levels are anticipated to be around 1,500’ or so as I posted yesterday from the BTV NWS discussion, it can easily mean graupel, pellets, or other robust frozen aggregates making it down to some of the lower mountain valleys as you saw. It seems that having the orographics around helps to enhance those chances. It looks like we’ll have more chances over the next couple of days with some lake moisture in play and a trough swinging through. With the anticipated temperatures, the colder portions of the diurnal cycle will of course be better in general for getting anything frozen into the valleys. Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 738 AM EDT Tue Nov 2 2021 Previous Discussion...The main forecast challenges for the near term continue to be timing and extent considerations for a lake enhanced band of showers that is currently located on a west- east axis off of Lake Ontario that extends just past the KTYX radar near Watertown, NY. Favorable phasing of low level and mid level winds are expected to continue to propagate moisture downstream as average flow shifts southwesterly. This flow change favors an orientation shift for the band that will likely track over the Adirondacks and across portions of the Champlain Valley by the midday and early afternoon hours today. Model consensus shows best chances of showers along a line from just north of Watertown, NY around Saranac Lake and through Burlington and Mt Mansfield Vermont. However, precipitation will be limited to generally less than 0.10 inches for most locations with 0.25-0.5 inches in the core of the band west of Saranac Lake through southwesterly St Lawrence County. Meanwhile, cyclonic curvature is projected to increase in the base of the longwave trough while lapse rates steepen. This will promote shower formation today across much of the North Country especially from northern New York through the northern Green Mountains. However, outside of the lake band, showers will be scattered in nature with only a few hundredths likely.

Hey, just hang out in this thread. It seems like folks are slow to get rolling this season, but I posted about it yesterday – sub-0 °C 850 hPa air is literally moving into the area as we speak. Many of us here should be expecting snow by this point, even in early November. Our site is only at 500’, and we’ve had snow during the first 10 days of the month in the vast majority of seasons that I’ve been keeping records, so you know that the higher elevation folks like Alex and Phin should be expecting it. We’re typically not talking about blockbuster storms at this point, but the past couple of seasons have had some nice accumulations in those first 10 days of November, with at least 6-12” inches down. Snow is even in our point forecast for the valley right now, so there’s definitely some potential out there with the air that is moving in. Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 1039 AM EDT Mon Nov 1 2021 .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 349 AM EDT Monday...Tuesday night and Wednesday will see a combination of lake effect precipitation from Lake Ontario and some showers from a shortwave trough moving across the area. Precipitation will be most concentrated over northern New York, especially Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. Thermal profiles continue to support the idea of air cold enough above 1500 feet for precipitation to be in the form of snow. Precipitation amounts will still be a tenth of an inch or less. Lows Tuesday night will be in the upper 20s to mid 30s with highs on Wednesday in the upper 30s to mid 40s. .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 349 AM EDT Monday...One more shortwave trough and enhancement of lake effect moisture will occur on Thursday and bring some more rain and snow showers to the area. Again precipitation amounts will generally be less than a tenth of an inch. Snow levels will continue to be somewhere around the 1500 foot mark.

It’s crazy to think that November temperatures and snow chances are literally moving into the area tomorrow, but I guess the calendar is turning to the new month, and the progression isn’t going to wait. We still have a ton of fall cleanup and prep to do here because the weekend weather has been less than optimal with all the rain. Some of the latest BTV NWS discussion: .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 359 AM EDT Sunday...the flow aloft backs a little to the southwest in response to a shortwave trough moving toward the area. This will result in increased precipitation chances over most of our area on Tuesday with lake effect precipitation moving up into northern New York and any showers that develop in response to the increasing dynamic support from the approaching shortwave trough. Temperatures aloft are cold enough that higher elevations should see precipitation in the form of snow. However, precipitation amounts will likely be a tenth of an inch or less. Highs on Tuesday will be in the mid 40s to lower 50s, but in the 30s across the higher summits. .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 359 AM EDT Sunday...Extended forecast remains on track with general ideas of cyclonic flow through much of the period helping to bring below normal temperatures to the area. Highs will be in the 40s, but in the 30s for the mountains. Thus any precipitation will once again be in the form or snow at the higher elevations, generally above 2000 feet. It does look like there will be additional shortwave troughs moving through the larger scale flow and this should enhance the precipitation chances on Wednesday and Thursday. Have bumped up probabilities more in the chance category for this time period as we will continue to see some lake effect precipitation and showers from the approaching shortwaves. The bolded does get one thinking about food a bit, nothing fancy, just sort of your typical staples. I could swear we’ve got a graphic around for it somewhere. I’ll look into it.

Wow, those foliage images almost seem unfathomable for NNE with respect to what we’re experiencing over here – I feel like we’ve been in stick season for two weeks now. You can see PF’s comment, which was about a week ago right there, and it wasn’t as if stick season had just started at that point. There are certainly still some trees here and there in this area with leaves on them, but those images feel like something from a different world.

This morning we dropped into the 20s F at our site for the first time this season. I certainly wasn’t expecting to get down below 30 F here at our site this quickly based on our usual autumn temperature progression. I don’t really track temperatures here, but I wouldn’t be surprised if this was very close to the average date when we see our first low temperatures in the 20s F for our site.

The weather has been fantastic; less so the weenie obsession with “Torchtober” generally crowding out other discussion, such as a potential frost/freeze situation.

This freeze really seemed to happen without much warning – no thanks to the main October discussion thread of course, with the heat obsession dominating the conversation. It’s also past the end of growing season, so the BTV NWS didn’t have any frost/freeze alerts up. The calls for no snow or freezes through the entirety month really were horrible though, since we’ve now had both, with another week to go. You know it’s a decent freeze in the area though if we get down to 30F at our location, since the warmth of the river and the fog usually protect us for a while. It looks like the next chance for flakes is actually tomorrow night into Monday per the Mansfield point forecast:

Wouldn’t Phin tell people to just get over it and move north though? – that’s literally what he did. Then every winter can be a “big winter”. Up by him, even a mediocre winter is darned wintry relative to most of the country. Decent snowpack for the entire winter is almost a given. He’s shown that it can be done.

I’ll still put my skis on my pack and hike to the snow line… if I have the beta and know there’s a couple feet of bomber snow up high. Having to hike a bit in the lower elevations is worth it if you know you’re heading for nearly midwinter conditions where you don’t even have to worry about the subsurface. In addition, hiking in Tele boots is quite pleasant, since they're just like a very supportive hiking boot. So when the difference between just going up for a hike vs. having the option for turns is just a couple of relatively light skis on my pack, it tips the balance a bit more. In general, I’m in the same camp as you. If you can’t skin right from the base, that immediately puts into question the potential quality of the skiing up high (or how high I’m going to have to go to get to good snow). You have to have quite an accumulation gradient up there somewhere to go from nothing to excellent in the early season when there’s no existing base in place. In the spring when there’s plenty of existing base, and the weather is beautiful, the calculation can be a bit different.

Ah… that latest round of snow passed through and Mansfield is visible again:

With the cloud level this morning, options to get an idea of the accumulating snow line were limited unless you were actually going to head up to elevation. The clouds have been rising at times as of midday though, and the snow line seems to be in the 3,000’ – 3,500’ elevation range. Bolton Mountain at ~3,700’ seems to have a few hundred vertical of snow visible, so that’s been serving as a good reference point. The views of the new snow have been great, although Mt. Mansfield recently disappeared again as moisture moved in from the northwest and snow began to drop. It sure looked like snowfall vs. rain, but I checked to see the temperature has been 31-32 F up there along the ridgeline, so it’s certainly snow. When the leaves are mostly down in the mountains and you see radar like this, it’s definitely starting to feel like the season around here:

As we look toward the beginning of next week, that potential intrusion of colder air has been shown on the GFS and other models for quite a while – and flakes are starting to appear in the Mansfield forecast now. Don’t worry though; the forecasters in the subforum have assured us that the leaves will remain on the trees (I’m sure PF’s picture is “Photoshopped”) and there will be no chances for snow at any elevation anywhere in the Northeast through the end of the month.

Very cool Tamarack, thanks for running that analysis. I’m immediately surprised that the snowfall difference between Novembers with above normal temperatures, and all Novembers is only 2.1” of snow. With November temperatures being somewhat marginal, I would have thought those above average temperature Novembers would be a collection of more obvious clunkers. I guess all it takes is probably a colder snap or two with some snowfall to get some accumulations down, even if the overall month comes out on the positive side for temperatures.

Great comments PF. We had this conversation several years back as well, perhaps in the NNE thread. I assume it’s from a period where color film predominated that the concept of a “native” or “unadjusted” photo being some sort of best representation of “reality” came into existence. Did people do this back in the days of black and white film? I have a hard time imagining the conversations of people going back and forth, with the black and film photographer insisting that his/her images were more realistic vs. the person who was attempting some sort of colorization. Really? Your eyes don’t see in color? Weird. It’s the same thing with color film. That someone is going to believe that an arbitrary synthetic film made by one company is any better of an “unaltered” representation of reality than someone else’s film just doesn’t make much sense. It’s all artificial. If you’re not post-processing your images, you’re just insisting on being stuck with whatever settings the film producer or camera maker decided to be their default settings, and they can make that whatever they want. One is not necessarily any more real than the next (i.e. you don’t know, objectively, what the world looks like through the eyes of other humans in terms of colors, saturation, dynamic range, etc.). Insisting on not post-processing just means you’re stuck with whatever drab, or oversaturated, or improperly color balanced, or over-sharpened, or blurry, or grainy, or whatever, settings that camera maker or film maker decided they wanted to be that default. There’s no way to have an unprocessed image – the image doesn’t exist before it’s processed. Even if you shoot digital in RAW, you still have to process it to an image format to make the viewable image. If you’re taking jpeg images out of your camera, they’re already processed with whatever defaults the camera has for processing, so you can’t avoid it. All one has to do is set the in-camera processing to make pictures as over-sharpened, over-brightened, and radioactively color saturated as they want, then post them or print them and tout how they came right out of the camera with no “post-processing”. Every scene is different with respect to lighting, coloring, dynamic range, etc., so limiting oneself to not post-processing is, ironically, the best way to ensure that you’ll almost never get images that are close to some sort of “reality”. In the end though… it’s a photograph. It’s not reality. It’s a representation of a scene. It’s art. It’s subjective. There are no actual standards.

Are the snowfall numbers applied in this analysis for the entire season, or for only the post-November portion of the season? I think we’ve talked about it before in the NNE thread, but one has to be more careful in correlating November data with winter up north, or it can just become a self-fulfilling hypothesis/comparison. November farther north, and especially in the mountains, isn’t quite the potentially uncorrelated/insignificant “pre-season” that it might be in areas to the south; in much of NNE you’re essentially “in-season” by that point. With November being at the edge of the season the way it is, above average temperatures are going to have a strong correlation with little to no snowfall. Average November snowfall at our site is almost 10% of the seasonal snowfall, so it’s not the minor/insignificant percentage represented by October snowfall. If you cut out 10% of a season’s snowfall through warm Novembers, then indeed, even if all else is equal for the rest of the season, one would expect those seasons with warm Novembers to average less overall snowfall. I’m not sure what % of Farmington’s average snowfall comes in November, but if the comparison is to full season snowfall, it would probably alter the threshold for significance vs. the assumption that the November temperatures and season’s snowfall have the possibility of being entirely independent.

Agreed; it’s going to be interesting to see when we start to get those initial touches of winter. An October with below average temperatures is fine because it typically offers the potential of getting a few days in on early snow, but an above average October is also great, since it can produce some days with perfect weather for outdoor activities. It’s rare for October snow/cold to carry right into the start of the actual season without a lapse, although it has happened when the cold comes at the very end of the month. November is a different animal though, in that a cold start there can easily mean the real beginning of the winter season.