J.Spin

Event totals: 0.2” Snow/0.50” L.E. We picked up a couple tenths of snow yesterday evening on the front end of this system – there were some small flakes as the system started up, then much larger flakes at times, and eventually more granular/sleety material mixed in. From what I can tell, this is actually part of Winter Storm Bankston that brought some big snows to the Sierra and strong winds to the Midwest. The reach of the storm is huge – if you look at the current surface map you can see that the low pressure is up above Lake Superior, with a warm front stretching off the east coast and a cold front all the way back to Arizona. It’s the warm front that brought us this first bout of precipitation from the system. Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.2 inches New Liquid: Trace Temperature: 42.3 F Sky: Cloudy Snow at the stake: Trace

Event totals: 0.1” Snow/0.50” L.E. It looked like this was going to be one of those storms without any accumulation down here in the valley, but I did find a tenth of an inch here at our site this morning. Although this system wasn’t a big snow producer in our area, it did reach the threshold to become the first named winter storm of the season (Winter Storm Atticus) because of its effects in the Midwest. Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.1 inches New Liquid: Trace Temperature: 33.4 F Sky: Clear Snow at the stake: Trace

Even though it’s only your second season there, one thing that’s been blatantly obvious this season is that you’ve “matured” a lot in your understanding of your site’s climate, and the NNE mountain climate vibe in general. Last season you appeared stressed about every event that wasn’t 100% snow, but this season you just seem to roll with the frequent storms and weather changes like a seasoned NNE vet. And, your appreciation of our bread and butter refreshers seems to be growing as well. The climate up here really is nothing like the Mid-Atlantic, NYC, or much of SNE, where the season can often consist of a lot “waiting” for the right synoptic storm or pattern to hit. I can see how in that sort of climate, if you’re looking for snow (for recreation, livelihood, or whatever) it could be stressful when it melts because you never know when it might come back. Up here, there’s almost always another chance at winter weather just around the corner, even if it’s not some sort of synoptic monster. The fact that you’ve had frequent snow cover and 20 inches of snow already this season, in what everyone seems to refer to as a really poor general pattern for snow, can attest to that. My records show we’ve already had 14 accumulating storms up here so far this season, and we’re only a third of the way through December. That’s also with an October that was rather warm and didn’t contribute the typical storm or two. While the snow climatology up here is amazing, our climate still isn’t 100% snow from every storm, all the time. As I always say, I like to describe the climate here as giving us at least some snow/frozen from just about every storm once we get to December. That’s sort of how it’s been thus far, with even the warm-sector storms giving us a bit of something. This storm has definitely had some front-side frozen for some of the NNE folks, but as PF mentioned earlier, this system might be one of those exceptions for some sites. The back side just doesn’t seem to have much snow potential with it, although I do see a bit of snow in the forecast for the higher elevations.

Yeah, it sounds like a great piece - I know lots about the resort from being around and skiing there so much, but had never heard that story. Such a cool story for a resort opening. I'll have to see if I can catch the show.

Event totals: 0.7” Snow/0.03” L.E. Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.7 inches New Liquid: 0.03 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 23.3 Snow Density: 4.3% H2O Temperature: 22.6 F Sky: Light Snow (1-5 mm flakes) Snow at the stake: 3.0 inches

Event totals: 3.3” Snow/0.14” L.E. We’ve had some flurries out there, but I think that’s the tail end of this system. The next chance for snow appears to be tonight with a weak warm front. Details from the 6:00 P.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.4 inches New Liquid: 0.01 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 40.0 Snow Density: 2.5% H2O Temperature: 18.5 F Sky: Flurries Snow at the stake: 3.0 inches

These comments prompted me to head to the data, since we’re far enough into the winter season now to take a look. We’re removed enough from the SVT climate that the data can’t quite speak to the averages there, but for up here in the Northern Greens, snowfall says that we’re right on track. You can see from the plot that we were a bit behind normal pace in early November, but Mother Nature has caught right up to her averages. Mean snowfall through today at our site is 23.5”, so this season has been hanging with that average pace. We’ll probably fall off average pace in the coming days because of the tracks that some of the larger systems are forecast to take. It won’t mean no snow in the coming stretch, but averages now get up into the 1-2”/day range, and the upcoming storms in the forecast just don’t look like they’ll be able to maintain that pace in the short term. Indeed as noted, nothing epic, but when average means plenty of light events, snowfall on many days, consistent snow cover, constant snow replenishment, etc. etc., then “average” is quite good.

Event totals: 2.9” Snow/0.13” L.E. Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 1.0 inches New Liquid: 0.03 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 33.3 Snow Density: 3.0% H2O Temperature: 24.3 F Sky: Light Snow (1-2 mm flakes) Snow at the stake: 3.0 inches

Event totals: 1.3” Snow/0.07” L.E. Details from the 6:00 P.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 1.2 inches New Liquid: 0.07 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 17.1 Snow Density: 5.8% H2O Temperature: 24.8 F Sky: Light Snow (1-3 mm flakes) Snow at the stake: 2.5 inches

Event totals: 0.1” Snow/Trace L.E. Light snow was falling this morning at observations time, with a tenth of an inch down on the boards. Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.1 inches New Liquid: Trace Temperature: 22.3 F Sky: Light Snow (1-2 mm flakes) Snow at the stake: 1.0 inches

Event totals: 0.1” Snow/0.50” L.E. The back side of this system delivered a tenth of an inch here at our site, and I’d say the system is done because I haven’t seen any precipitation since then. Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.1 inches New Liquid: Trace Temperature: 29.7 F Sky: Partly Cloudy Snow at the stake: 1.0 inches

Yeah, I saw that on the GFS – looks like it shows snow for a good chunk of Wednesday and Thursday on the latest run. That can be one of the problems with these coastal things – sometimes they just end up screwing with perfectly good northern stream systems by messing up the energy, so you’d often just as soon have them get out of the way and let the bread and butter do its thing in a more reliable manner. Obviously those larger coastal storms can be great, but the reliability is just so low compared to the typical Clippers we see.

Yeah, perfect phrase for those types of post-frontal accumulations. Mother Nature seems pretty angry based on the wind – our power flickered a few times and even went out for a few minutes. On these types of nights, maybe have a beverage from these folks…

I just noticed that snow is mixing in with the rain here at our place, so colder air must be moving in now on the back side of this storm.

November Totals Days with new snow: 16 (+5) Accumulating Storms: 8 (+2) Snowfall: 15.0” (+1.2”) Liquid Equivalent: 5.59” (+1.65”) SDD: 25.5 (-6.7) I’ve put together the snow numbers for November at our site. It was a decent November for both snowfall and liquid as the positive departures show, but snowfall was right around average and not up there with the upper echelon of Novembers – this November ranked 9th out of 16 seasons. It actually felt like a typical November overall, and that’s good because the numbers suggest that. Snow-depth days were a bit low, but not outrageously so. With roughly an average snowfall performance, this November continues the solid run of average to above average Novembers we’ve had for the past six seasons as the plot shows below. As I noted earlier in the month, this November did not have the feel of those very low snow Novembers with benign (albeit comfortable) weather, and it indeed the data indicate that it wasn’t one of those.

Event totals: 1.3” Snow/0.06” L.E. Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.8 inches New Liquid: 0.03 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 26.7 Snow Density: 3.8% H2O Temperature: 29.5 F Sky: Mostly Cloudy Snow at the stake: 4.0 inches

Event totals: 0.5” Snow/0.03” L.E. Details from the 6:00 P.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.5 inches New Liquid: 0.03 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 16.7 Snow Density: 6.0% H2O Temperature: 29.5 F Sky: Flurries Snow at the stake: 3.5 inches

Snow just started up here at the house with the approach of this next system.

I don’t really know the climate down there, but NOHRSC analysis certainly doesn’t suggest that the local snowpack here is going to disappear because of one mixed system, and I find the NOHRSC projections do a pretty nice job for our site using the CoCoRaHS data. The current snowpack isn’t just a bunch of fluff; even here in the valley it’s been around almost two weeks and it’s seen bolstering and consolidation from six storms. The projected system doesn’t have a ton or rain, and there’s frozen on both ends depending on location. I guess we’ll just have to see how it plays out, but If this was really a big deal, I think people would be talking about issues for the local resorts around here.

Event totals: 0.9” Snow/0.24” L.E. We’ve mostly cleared out, and the radar looks quiet, so I’d say we’re done with this most recent system and the above totals should represent the final values. That was the 10th accumulating storm of the season, with two storms thus far in December and eight from November. That’s a respectable number of storms for November, and it was a decent winter month with fairly average numbers in most snow categories I track. I’m planning to put together the summary for the month with comparison to other Novembers when I get a chance. Details from the 6:00 P.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.2 inches New Liquid: 0.01 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 20.0 Snow Density: 5.0% H2O Temperature: 24.3 F Sky: Partly Cloudy Snow at the stake: 3.5 inches

Thanks for the update PF – that should be fun to watch. These bread and butter-style events are of course typically way up there in terms of reliability when modeled, relative to many other types of systems, but even then they still have their ups and downs in terms of magnitude. That event went through an interesting period in the modeling where it seemed to weaken a lot, but it has made a resurgence in recent runs. That is definitely one to watch because if it delivers enough L.E., that could set up some low and moderate angle powder turns down to lower elevations than the good snow might be at the moment. This past system has been good for substantiating the base, but it seems like levels for maintaining snow quality were pretty far up there (~3,000’?). This could help freshen up surfaces a bit lower if it delivers enough – it will definitely have a big impact on whether or not I try to head out for natural snow turns this weekend.

Event totals: 0.7” Snow/0.23” L.E. Yesterday’s above-freezing temperatures consolidated the snowpack by a couple of inches, and it did pick up some liquid from the rainy period to create a much more sturdy, base-like consistency compared to what it was like ahead of this system. The snow on the boards this morning was a mixture of granules and graupel, but we’re over to more typical flakes now with a substantial uptick in snowfall intensity when in bands as the radar suggests. Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.2 inches New Liquid: 0.02 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 10.0 Snow Density: 10.0% H2O Temperature: 29.5 F Sky: Light Snow (1-2 mm flakes) Snow at the stake: 3.5 inches

Event totals: 0.5” Snow/0.03” L.E. I’m glad I cleared all the boards well last night because we did get some front end snow from this next incoming system. Temperatures were approaching freezing, so the snowpack was starting to get a bit wet as I was leaving this morning. Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.5 inches New Liquid: 0.03 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 16.7 Snow Density: 6.0% H2O Temperature: 31.8 F Sky: Cloudy Snow at the stake: 5.5 inches

Event totals: 2.0” Snow/0.14” L.E. Details from the 6:00 P.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 1.1 inches New Liquid: 0.10 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 11.0 Snow Density: 9.1% H2O Temperature: 23.7 F Sky: Cloudy Snow at the stake: 5.5 inches

Event totals: 0.9” Snow/0.04” L.E. From what I’ve seen in our area, this morning’s snowfall has been some of the most robust from this system thus far. The flakes were relatively small at observations time, but the size has increased substantially since then. Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.5 inches New Liquid: 0.02 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 25.0 Snow Density: 4.0% H2O Temperature: 28.4 F Sky: Light Snow (1-3 mm flakes) Snow at the stake: 5.0 inches