J.Spin

I’ve got the latest BTV NWS map updates for the upcoming system, which has been named Winter Storm Frida based on its impact level. The alerts now contains some Winter Storm Warnings up to the northwest of the BTV NWS CWA, since the heaviest snowfall rates are expected off toward the Saint Lawrence Valley. The Winter Weather Advisories have also been expanded since the previous update. The Event Total Snowfall forecast map clearly shows how accumulations are expected to increase to the north and west. Around here in the Northern Greens, I’m seeing elevation forecasts in the 6-8” range, and there’s just a touch of that yellow 6-8” shading appearing up near Jay Peak. Down at our site in the valley, the point forecast suggests something in the 3-6” range for snow/sleet accumulations through Sunday night.

I checked out the 18Z NAM modeling and it actually seems pretty nice – it looks like it moved the snow a bit farther south vs. its previous run and sends a stream of it right through NNE for ~24 hours.

Down here at 500’ we’ve got a mix of rain and frozen with these strong echoes coming through, but no accumulation to report.

Alexa just chirped up with an alert that we’ve been put under a Winter Weather Advisory starting at 7:00 P.M. tomorrow. It looks like the advisory is for most of the BTV NWS coverage area. I haven’t looked into any projected accumulations maps yet, but the advisory text itself suggests up to 4 inches of snow at this point.

Event totals: 0.1” Snow/0.02” L.E. I saw a bit of snow yesterday evening, and found a slushy tenth of an inch on the boards this morning from this most recent event. There’s not really any snow in the forecast for today, so if that’s the last of the month, this December will finish off with 20.6” of total snow. Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.1 inches New Liquid: 0.02 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 5.0 Snow Density: 20.0% H2O Temperature: 32.9 F Sky: Cloudy Snow at the stake: 4.0 inches

I guess we’ll have to see where the modeling is going because we’re still ~36 hours or so out from the front end of the modeled system, but there seems to be a lot of potential in these recent runs. The storm appears rather strung out, but areas on the snow side of the swath of precipitation that comes though could get a protracted period of snowfall. The 18Z ICON is an example of how it would be snowing for almost a day and a half in northern areas around here.

Event totals: 0.3” Snow/0.04” L.E. The BTV NWS says the snow from last night into this morning was from an upper-level shortwave tracking across the region, and it sounds like any additional snow through this morning can be attributed to that system. As we get into the evening hours today, there’s the potential for a resurgence in snowfall, which looks like it would be attributed to a different shortwave. Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.3 inches New Liquid: 0.04 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 7.5 Snow Density: 13.3% H2O Temperature: 32.5 F Sky: Cloudy Snow at the stake: 5.0 inches

For areas that were in that localized mid-December banding event last year I guess this season could seem different, but for many areas around here in NNE it probably seems fairly similar. The data here for our site say the two Decembers have been very similar in terms of snowfall and storms. December snowfall and storm data to this point of the month: December 2020: 22.7” from 10 storms December 2021: 20.2” from 13 storms So this December has seen a couple more storms, while last December saw a couple more inches of snow, but they have a very similar tenor. Depending on how snowpack factors in for people, this December takes that hands down, with twice the level of SDD to this point of the month: December 2020: 51.5 SDD December 2021: 100.0 SDD Both in terms of snowfall and snowpack, all those numbers are well below average (although the storm numbers are actually about average), so these can’t be considered amazing Decembers in that regard, but around here they are feeling quite similar, with this one getting the obvious nod in terms of snowpack.

It doesn’t seem to be a huge system in terms of potential L.E., but a colder profile would be much more positive in terms of adding to the base or even enhancing conditions on the slopes. That most recent GFS run already seems to suggest a majority of frozen precipitation for NW VT. Somehow I don’t get the impression that the main thread is going to do their typical microdissection on every five mile shift in surface low track for this system like they sometimes do; but you never know.

I saw this and checked my data, and your perception is pretty much right about larger storms being a bit on the lean side last season. It’s probably a bit early to say much about this season yet (the average date of our first 12”+ storm here is Jan 20th), but last season was definitely on the lower side. We typically average about three storms a season at 12”+, and last season we saw only one. We typically average about four storms a season at 10”+, and last season we had two. We also average about two storms a season at 15”+, one storm a season at 18”+, and one storm a season at 20”+, and we had none of those last season. Below the 10” storm threshold we were at or above average for numbers last season (makes sense, with overall snowfall coming in about average), but we were certainly on the low side for larger storms. We’re obviously famous for the persistency/frequency of our snowfalls up here in the mountains of NNE, but of course we get the larger storms like everyone else. From a skiing perspective, the continuous stream of small to moderate events is safer because you’re not dealing with huge storms that might put you in the associated warm sector if they pass to the west, and more frequent events keep the surfaces fresher. Setups that lead to larger events are sort of a double-edged sword, because they can bring surface-deteriorating warmth and also screw up the flow of systems in the northern stream, so unless the storm track for those is perfect, it makes you wonder if we really want the pattern to go there.

I absolutely agree based on my snowshoe tour up at Bolton yesterday – a solid warning event (~1” of L.E.) wouldn’t really get the steep natural snow terrain going, but a lot of low and moderate angle stuff would be in play. And based on your previous post showing an average depth at the stake of 31”, that’s just about what you’d expect. It’s really that ~40” mark at the stake that gets the steeper stuff going safely (unless we’ve had a ton of dense snow), and that’s not achieved on average until a couple of weeks from now.

Event totals: 0.5” Snow/0.03” L.E. The moisture looks like it’s moved south of the area now on radar, so this round of snow could be it for this system. Details from the 6:00 P.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.1 inches New Liquid: 0.01 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 10.0 Snow Density: 10.0% H2O Temperature: 31.5 F Sky: Cloudy Snow at the stake: 5.0 inches

We picked up another tenth of an inch of snow this morning with the resurgence of snow from this system, but the bulk of the snowfall is currently just a bit north of our area based on the radar:

Event totals: 0.3” Snow/0.02” L.E. This morning I found accumulation on the boards from the most recent system affecting the area, which is actually Winter Storm Delphine that more notably affected the northern plains and upper Midwest over the past couple of days. Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.3 inches New Liquid: 0.02 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 15.0 Snow Density: 6.7% H2O Temperature: 27.9 F Sky: Light Snow (1-3 mm flakes) Snow at the stake: 5.5 inches

Since there was mixed precipitation from this recent system that would have added some crust to the snowpack, my wife and I headed up to Bolton for some snowshoeing today instead of skiing. We figured we could check out the state of the snowpack while we were there, so I can pass along a quick report. Indeed there’s just an inch or two of fresh snow above the crust layer in exposed areas, so the backcountry/ungroomed terrain isn’t really ready for great turns in that respect. We did note that in some protected areas in the trees, there’s no crust because the trees prevented the mixed precipitation from reaching the snow, but that state isn’t consistent enough to really provide great turns. In general though at elevations above the main base (~2,000’) there’s plenty of natural base snow in place for low to moderate angle terrain that’s well maintained. One good storm with an inch of L.E. in the form of snow would have that all in play. Lower Turnpike on the Wilderness uphill route looked like it had great coverage and a nice even base that should produce some fantastic turns as soon as Mother Nature puts down a bit more powder down on it. The next system is expected to come through tonight, so we’ll see what happens at the resorts.

I was curious when I saw this because I didn’t actually know the annual snowfall for Truckee, but everything I’m seeing shows numbers in the 120”-200” range (perhaps the range is due to observations at different elevations). Unless you’re specifically talking about cities with a certain population, or those that have a first order station or something (but you mentioned Mt. Washington), that’s pretty low. A 200” total wouldn’t even be considered mid-tier annual snowfall at the local ski resorts around here, it would be low to mid-tier at best. Some of the resorts out there like Kirkwood get up into the 400-500” range for annual snowfall, but not Truckee itself as far as I can see from the data.

Yeah, I believe the plan was that maintaining your own numbers would be the format going forward.

We’ve got a bit of light snow falling now, but with nothing on the radar, the small size of the flakes, and the low clouds comments about in the BTV NWS forecast discussion, I suspect it’s from low-level moisture. Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 635 AM EST Mon Dec 27 2021 NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 627 AM EST Monday...Low clouds continue to blanket much of the forecast area this morning, with some open patches seen in the St Lawrence Valley, Adirondacks, and south-central VT. However, mid/high cloud are spreading into northern NY ahead of our next system, so even if the low clouds are able to dissipate, don`t anticipate there will be much sun.

Event totals: 1.9” Snow/0.22” L.E. We’re just cloudy now, and there’s nothing of note on the radar, so I’d say this is the end of this system and the totals above are final for the storm. So it looks like this one contributed just shy of ¼” of liquid equivalent going into the snowpack. The BTV NWS forecast discussion indicates that the next system is expected to move into the area tonight into tomorrow. Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.3 inches New Liquid: 0.02 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 15.0 Snow Density: 6.7% H2O Temperature: 23.0 F Sky: Cloudy Snow at the stake: 5.5 inches

Event totals: 1.6” Snow/0.20” L.E. Details from the 8:00 P.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.5 inches New Liquid: 0.02 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 25.0 Snow Density: 4.0% H2O Temperature: 26.2 F Sky: Light Snow (2-20 mm flakes) Snow at the stake: 5.5 inches

You can really see that snow pushing in on the radar; classic flow from the northwest:

I was just looking through the modeling to see what’s lined up for the coming holiday week, and here are the latest suggestions for storms: · Today through tomorrow morning – the backside/upslope potion of this most recent system. In their AFD, the BTV NWS mentions 1-3”, and I see roughly 2-4” in the Mansfield point forecast. · Tomorrow night-Tuesday – a weakening shortwave with a chance for snow showers · Tuesday night-Wednesday – another possible system with light precipitation · Thursday into Friday – a weak low pressure system that seems to be blending with the previous one on some guidance. · Saturday night onward – a potential larger system None of these are expected to be anything major aside from that larger one that’s fairly far out there, but as usual up here, the pattern is pretty active with chances to freshen the slopes and have flakes in the air. After the first couple of systems, these events are certainly in flux, but we’ll see how it sorts out to bring snow. Whatever the case, it’s nice to be topping off the slopes during the holiday week vs. recovering from some huge storm where the area lost a lot of snow because we were in the warm sector.

Event totals: 1.1” Snow/0.18” L.E. Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.4 inches New Liquid: 0.03 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 13.3 Snow Density: 7.5% H2O Temperature: 26.2 F Sky: Light Snow (1 mm flakes) Snow at the stake: 5.0 inches

Event totals: 0.7” Snow/0.15” L.E. Details from the 12:00 A.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.4 inches New Liquid: 0.04 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 10.0 Snow Density: 10.0% H2O Temperature: 28.0 F Sky: Light Snow (1-4 mm flakes) Snow at the stake: 5.0 inches

I hadn’t looked outside for a while, but I just looked out and noticed that the deck had whitened up quite a bit more from the grayish sleet color that had been accumulating, and the precipitation has changed over to all snow. We’ll have to see if snow is going to predominate going forward, but many models indicate the chance for continued snow right through Monday morning.