J.Spin

Event totals: 1.3” Snow/0.03” L.E. Details from the 6:00 P.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 1.3 inches New Liquid: 0.03 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 43.3 Snow Density: 2.3% H2O Temperature: 20.3 F Sky: Light Snow (2-12 mm flakes) Snow at the stake: 14.0 inches

Thus far today I haven’t seen anything at the house, and I was up at Bolton for a midday session and didn’t see any flakes there either. I have seen some flakes this afternoon on the Bolton Webcam, and I’m starting to see some snow crash out around the local peaks. PF is seeing flakes, so maybe this next wave of moisture will have a little more oomph to get flakes down to the surface.

I hadn’t had a chance to post any images from my Tuesday ski session yet, but after the backside snows from Winter Storm Izzy, it was down in the single digits F, so touring seemed like the call. I ended up touring down at Timberline because the snowpack is pretty substantial even down to 1,500’. The parking lot hadn’t been plowed, but there were several cars in the lot from others who were touring there, and the traffic had packed down the snow enough to get around reasonably with 4WD/AWD. I checked the snow depth in various spots on both the ascent and descent, and my best estimates of overall settled snowpack depth at that point were ~18” at 1,500’, ~22” at 2,000’ and ~24” at 2,500’. I’ve got a few shots from that outing below. We actually toured today starting all the way down at 1,200’ and even that was fine. I’ll pass along some images from that session when I get a chance.

Actually, the 12Z CMC run does show some improved bread and butter pacing – there are potential systems coming through for tomorrow, Tuesday, Friday, and then Monday. With those four systems over that span, that’s getting pretty close to that every other day sort of interval we see when the northern branch is active and sending through the moisture. I find that the GFS is better than the CMC in terms of giving the best prognostication for these systems at relatively long lead times, and the models don’t really agree on the latter two systems (probably because of some potential phasing and/or pacing differences). So, one can’t put much stock in those latter two systems yet, but seeing what the CMC shows suggests some potential with our favorite jet stream.

Between skiing and work I’ve been a bit busy this week to comment much on the pattern, although if there was a really strong bread and butter look in the modeling, I probably would have squeezed in the time. There’s been a little something on the models for tomorrow, and then another northern stream system shown for Tuesday, but beyond that, there isn’t anything suggested until around next weekend, and that seems a bit indeterminate at this point because there could be some phasing. When we’re in those really solid bread and butter patterns up here, we’ll have something come through just about every other day, and some of them will show those robust signals for precipitation along the spine of the Northern Greens. So, it’s not a horrible bread and butter pattern by any means, but it’s not necessarily worth pulling out the artisan bread icon, probably more like something in the range of white bread as currently modeled. Not that we’d mind if that potential phasing shown farther out in the models produced another something like Izzy, but putting too much reliance on those types of systems means you’re jumping into that SNE game of Russian roulette. Actually, assuming the bullet is the “undesired outcome” with the way some of the weenies start latching onto fantasy modeling so far out in time, the game they play is really more like some form of reverse Russian roulette, with five rounds in the cylinder and just one empty.

We sometimes get those January doldrums where arctic air moves in and we’re just under cold, dry high pressure for a week or more, but this January hasn’t felt like that so far. At least here in our area, it’s felt like the occasional subzero type of day, but the northern stream still has systems coming through giving us precipitation – and variations in temperature with warm-ups on the front side of systems. I wouldn’t say they’ve been very robust systems the past few days since Izzy departed on Tuesday, but fortunately, we’ve at least had breaks in the cold.

Winter Storm Izzy was obviously a game changer with respect to the local snowpack, but the Mt. Mansfield Stake data objectively tells that tale that we still haven’t even hit the traditional 40-inch mark at the stake. The appropriately-manicured low and even moderate-angle off-piste pitches are pretty much there, but not really the steep stuff. We’re getting close on that terrain, and that’s probably making it tough on folks who are chomping at the bit to hit that stuff. It can also be a bit tougher to manage at Stowe because so much of the off-piste terrain is on the steeper side.

I found 0.2” on the boards this morning from the current system passing through the area. The BTV NWS forecast discussion indicates that it’s a quick moving low pressure system moving along north of the international border. Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.2 inches New Liquid: Trace Temperature: 3.6 F Sky: Cloudy Snow at the stake: 16.0 inches

Event totals: 16.5” Snow/1.20” L.E. We’ve largely cleared out now, so I’d say this last accumulation marks the end of Winter Storm Izzy here at our site, and the above numbers should represent the final totals. This storm has now surpassed Winter Storm Carrie (9.3”) from back in December as the largest this season, and is the largest recorded here since Winter Storm Kade (17.0”) back in Feb 2020. Details from the 1:00 P.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.2 inches New Liquid: 0.01 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 20.0 Snow Density: 5.0% H2O Temperature: 16.9 F Sky: Partly Cloudy Snow at the stake: 18.0 inches

Here’s the north to south listing of available storm totals from the Vermont ski areas for Winter Storm Izzy: Jay Peak: 14” Burke: 5” Smuggler’s Notch: 14” Stowe: 13” Bolton Valley: 16” Mad River Glen: 19” Sugarbush: 15” Middlebury: 14” Pico: 17” Killington: 17” Okemo: 13” Bromley: 15” Magic Mountain: 13” Stratton: 15” Mount Snow: 14”

The GFS is usually pretty good at catching these potential bread and butter northern stream systems several days out. I’m only seeing the midweek (Wednesday/Thursday) one at this point, but we’ll see if anything pops up. In an earlier post I’d mentioned that if we could get 1.5” of L.E. out of the weekend system and the potential midweek one, it would be quite a boon to the slopes. I think the mountains may have already picked up that 1.5” from just Winter Storm Izzy though. Since we picked up 1.19” of L.E. down here in the valley, they’d almost have to have hit that mark, so that’s going to be a great addition to the mountain snowpack.

We were skiing up at Bolton yesterday, so I can pass along some updates and a few images. Wind holds were in effect at the very start of the day, but they were loading by mid-morning and we headed up. The snowfall rates were already pretty substantial (~1”/hr.) down in the valley, and they ramped up as we headed into the higher elevations. With the snowfall rates, it was hard to keep pace with plowing the Bolton Valley Access Road, so snow was definitely present and giving some vehicles trouble making the ascent. We had to head around stopped vehicles in a couple of different spots, and one was working on turning around to head back down and presumably wait for the plow/sander to make a pass. As far as ski days go, you had a number of factors that made yesterday’s session a good one. By mid-morning, the wind had settled down to almost nothing across many areas of the mountain, temperatures were very comfortable in the upper 20s to around 30 F, and it was pounding snow somewhere in the 1-2”/hr. range a lot of the time. The snowfall meant that surfaces were getting constantly refreshed, atop of what had already been a solid resurfacing with probably 0.50 – 0.75” of liquid equivalent in the form of medium-weight snow. With the overnight shot of snow and the continued heavy snowfall, patrol was opening up trails all over the main mountain that had not been available yet this season. It was hard to know which ropes had been dropped before opening time, and which ones were done on the fly, by just about everything on Vista was open. The resort had completed their snowmaking and preparation of Spillway, which is one of their signature steep trails, so that was open with all the new snow atop the base they’d made. That offered up some excellent steep skiing. You could still contact the harder manmade snow below at times, but it was snowing so hard that the manmade stuff was quickly getting buried. The heavy snowfall rates were very evident while riding the lifts because of how fast you would get coated with snow, so on one of rides on the Vista Quad, my son’s friend stayed still to catch the accumulation. I’ve got a shot of that in the images below.

Event totals: 16.3” Snow/1.19” L.E. Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 3.7 inches New Liquid: 0.07 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 52.9 Snow Density: 1.9% H2O Temperature: 16.0 F Sky: Light Snow (1-3 mm flakes) Snow at the stake: 19.0 inches

Event totals: 12.6” Snow/1.12” L.E. Details from the 12:00 A.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 2.0 inches New Liquid: 0.15 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 13.3 Snow Density: 7.5% H2O Temperature: 22.1 F Sky: Snow (4-20 mm flakes) Snow at the stake: 16.0 inches

The snowfall has picked up a bit over roughly the past half hour, so it could be the back side portion of this event coming through.

Event totals: 10.6” Snow/0.97” L.E. It was a 7-hour block of snow collection time while we were up at the mountain today, so with 7.3” new on the boards, snowfall down here in the valley averaged a bit above 1”/hr. during that period. Up at Bolton the snowfall rate was somewhere in the 1-2”/hr. range, so they picked a good shot today. If it’s been like this up here in NVT, it’s going to be interesting to see the numbers out of the places that really got into the heavy snows. Details from the 3:00 P.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 7.3 inches New Liquid: 0.59 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 12.4 Snow Density: 8.1% H2O Temperature: 32.9 F Sky: Light Snow (1-3 mm flakes) Snow at the stake: 16.5 inches

I totally agree. I didn’t know this accumulation was going to be even denser than 10 to 1, but that will be fantastic for the base. We actually were out on the Bolton Valley Backcountry Network yesterday for a snowshoe tour, and I was quite impressed with the off piste/backcountry ski conditions that were already present. The conditions over the past week seem to have been improving under the radar. There was decent base and 6-7” of powder atop that, even down in the 2,000’ – 2,500’ elevation band. On our ascent of the Bryant Trail, I took the image below of a track that a skier had left in the A1A glade area, probably around 2,300’, and I was definitely wishing I’d brought my skis instead. Things have really been primed for a synoptic storm like this, and the coverage is in a position that even the ~0.40” of liquid we’ve picked up so far is actually going to kick things up substantially.

Event totals: 3.3” Snow/0.38” L.E. The overnight accumulations from Winter Storm Izzy already put down quite a shot of L.E. around here – almost 0.40” of L.E. in just this first round. Details from the 8:00 A.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 3.3 inches New Liquid: 0.38 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 8.7 Snow Density: 11.5% H2O Temperature: 24.1 F Sky: Snow (1-10 mm flakes) Snow at the stake: 8.5 inches

The Wind Chill Warnings and Wind Chill Advisories that had taken priority on the BTV NWS alerts maps have now expired, so we can see the layout of winter weather alerts in the area for the approaching system, which has been given the name Winter Storm Izzy. The collection of Winter Weather Advisories and Winter Storm Warnings certainly depicts the lower totals expected in parts of NVT and the Champlain Valley, and these can be seen on the latest Storm Total Snowfall Forecast map, which I see mreaves also posted. Here at our site, We’re under a Winter Storm Warning and I’m seeing projected accumulations in the 6-14” range through Tuesday. For the local mountains the projected accumulations top out around the 18-20” range for the highest elevations, and the map does just start to catch a bit of that 12-18” shading along the crest of the spine.

Well, let’s be serious here – does anyone actually think the next two potential weather systems are going to drop 1.5” of L.E. as 100% liquid in the mountains of NNE? The second system in the modeling is a clipper-type system that doesn’t even hint at that possibility, so that’s sort of silly. The point is that the state of the mountain snowpack is such that it could take some rain (only so much before it starts to drain through etc.) as part of the L.E., and it would likely add L.E. to it as part of substantiating the base. Snow and sleet are certainly much better for conditions, and that’s actually all that’s currently shown in the mountain forecasts around here anyway.

Yeah, first there’s this larger system from tomorrow night into Monday to think about, and that could be the synoptic system we’ve needed to get a huge portion of the moderate to steep natural snow terrain in play around here. Most of the models show at least a half inch of liquid equivalent here along the spine of the Northern Greens from that system, although something like the latest GFS run with over an inch of liquid equivalent through Tuesday would be really nice. A shot like that would have a huge impact on the snowpack depths for the natural terrain. As you can see from Matt Parrilla’s Mt. Mansfield Snow Stake Depth Plot below, the snowpack depth at the stake is currently 28”. That’s certainly below the average 40” snowpack depth, but nowhere near the basement as far as seasons go. It’s not 28” of fluff either; it’s substantial, and essentially primed for whatever comes next. The ~24” mark is about where people typically start skiing the natural snow terrain (lower and moderate-angle stuff), and indeed, that’s what I’ve seen at Bolton over the past week or so. I suspect PF and bwt have been seeing similar things at Stowe and Jay. The snowpack reaching the 40” mark at the stake (The Northern Greens 40-inch rule) is where you’ll find most natural snow terrain (even the relatively steep stuff) reaching practical utility. With a current 28” depth at the stake, we are absolutely within striking distance of that 40” mark with a good storm or two, and it’s hard to express what a game changer that would be – trail counts and available acreage would jump dramatically. In some respects, it doesn’t matter whether this next system delivers snow, sleet, freezing rain, or even plain rain; it’s that liquid equivalent that we’ve been lacking because we’ve had a relatively slow trickle of smaller systems over the past couple of weeks without the sprinkling of major or even moderate systems. Obviously, getting all the liquid equivalent as pure rain would be least optimal, but the mountain snowpack is in a robust enough state right now where it would still be substantiated by that liquid equivalent, unless the temperatures were somehow 50 or 60 F. Straight rain isn’t currently what’s forecast, so it’s more likely that any liquid equivalent will come as snow, or some other frozen forms of precipitation. And then indeed, there’s that midweek system. From a quick look at some recent runs of the GFS, I think something in the 0.3” to 0.5” inch of L.E. range is what it’s been showing around here for the spine from that potential midweek system. It’s up and down of course, and we’ll have to see how it changes over the next several days, but we do like the typical reliability of those types of systems: If the mountains ultimately pulled out something on the high end like 1.5” of L.E. from these next couple of systems, it will seriously transform the ski options.

I’ve added the updated season snowfall progression plot for our site below. As you can see from the slope of this year’s cumulative snowfall trace over the past week, we’re toddling along at a reasonably steady pace, but comparing to the average slope, we’re clearly behind average snowfall pace. We’re obviously not going to catch up all in one fell swoop without a real whopper storm, but even a typical 6-12” storm would make a notable dent in catching up, since we’re only 18” behind average pace at the moment.

This prompted me to update my numbers and check, and we’re right around 18” behind average season snowfall pace as of today. We’ve actually had 7-8” in the past week (helped by 3.8” from Winter Storm Garrett last weekend, and 2.4” from this frontal passage), but it’s sort of been a trickle, and not really helping to gain any ground on average pace. I’ll try to put together the updated season snowfall vs. average plot when I get a chance.

That reminds me of my coldest ski day I can remember, because we had a situation almost the opposite. My friend’s radio in his Blazer had not worked in years (he instead just drove around with a boom box on the seat), but it started working on that day, and it appeared to be due to the cold. We always joked that it was simply because we’d finally reached superconducting temperatures, although it was probably something along the lines of cmponents contracting enough in the cold temperatures to reestablish a broken contact. We were skiing at Jay Peak, and the summit air temp was -20 F. I didn’t remember the wind speed, but I know that the net result was -80 F wind chill on the old wind chill chart, so I just looked it up, and that meant the summit winds were in the 30 to 35 MPH range. On the new wind chill chart, it’s only -55 F, but it’s right on the verge of that fuchsia 5 minute frostbite time area. We only took a few runs, and after each one, we’d have to spend 30 to 45 min in the lodge warming up because we both found that our knees were tightening up horribly (maybe due to the fluid getting cold). Now I don’t even think of riding the lifts when the air temperature is below 0 F, and rarely even if it’s in the single digits F. I find it just excruciating to have to sit there on the lift, suspended in the winds without being able to move and generate body heat. It’s just much more comfortable (and obviously safer with respect to the potential for lift malfunction) to skin up a sheltered route out of the winds and be able to quickly turn around if the combination of temperature and wind just doesn’t make sense. As PF noted the other day, the skiing often sucks at those really cold temperatures anyway because of crystal structure and the fact that you’re not able to generate the typical liquid for glide. You can help get around this somewhat with the right cold weather wax I believe, but it can only do so much, and there are just too many factors detracting from the experience on those really cold days to make worth the hassle when, as a local, you have so many opportunities for great days anyway.

Event totals: 2.4” Snow/0.05” L.E. It looks like this afternoon’s snow was the end of the precipitation associated with the cold front and cold air advection – we’re definitely into the cold air now. I discovered that the snow we were getting here at our house was actually because we were just on the eastern edge of this afternoon’s activity - I headed to Burlington, and the snow continued to pick up has I got into the western slopes. At times the visibility dropped substantially, and at one point the snowfall was intense enough that it prompted switching over to headlights and fogs. Once I was through Williston, the snow began to clear up to partly cloudy skies, and the temperature had dropped off well into the teens and single digits. Details from the 6:00 P.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.2 inches New Liquid: Trace Temperature: 1.9 F Sky: Partly Cloudy Snow at the stake: 6.0 inches