J.Spin

Whoa… whoa… whoa… are you sure it’s good to push the storm out of here so quickly? Don’t you want the usual backside snows? I don’t think we’d want to miss out on that, and many of the models suggest there could be some.

Event totals: 0.3” Snow/0.12” L.E. The precipitation this morning has generally been sleet, but there’s certainly been some freezing rain as well that has promoted bonding of the sleet together into a frozen mass. It’s one of those days where coring the samples off the snowboards is really impractical, so the cores are best obtained by melting down the accumulation in the rain gauge outer cylinder. Scraping down the snowboards is likewise a huge amount of work, so it’s a day for the technique of putting fresh boards in place and melting down the accumulations from the previous round inside. Also of note is that this event has already brought more liquid equivalent than the 0.08” total suggested from the recent forecast, so it’s been more potent in that regard. Details from the 12:00 P.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.2 inches (sleet) New Liquid: 0.11 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 1.8 Snow Density: 55.0% H2O Temperature: 26.6 F Sky: Cloudy Snow at the stake: 5.0 inches

Event totals: 0.1” Snow/0.01” L.E. This morning on the boards I found a tenth of an inch of mixed precipitation, with the accumulation more due to sleet or granular components than any obvious flakes. Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.1 inches New Liquid: 0.01 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 10.0 Snow Density: 10.0% H2O Temperature: 23.4 F Sky: Cloudy Snow at the stake: 5.0 inches

Earlier I’d checked on the totals that the Vermont ski areas have reported for the past couple of days, and the north to south listing is below. The northern resorts along the spine reported numbers in the 6-9” range, but I was surprised to see that there also appeared to be some decent accumulations in the Okemo to Pico stretch of the spine. Jay Peak: 7” Smuggler’s Notch: 6” Stowe: 9” Bolton Valley: 7” Mad River Glen: 2” Sugarbush: 3” Middlebury: 1” Pico: 5” Killington: 5” Okemo: 7” Bromley: 3” Magic Mountain: 3” Stratton: 2” Mount Snow: 4”

It continued to snow after my session at Bolton yesterday, and with the impressive conditions I found during the touring part of my trip, my wife and I decided to head up for some touring today. The recent rounds of snow have been great overall for the resort, and they’re reporting 7 inches of new in the past 48 hours. All the new snow is a bit of a mixed blessing with respect to touring on the Wilderness terrain though. In this morning’s snow report, it was already announced that a number of natural snow trails had been opened on Vista, so I assumed it was only a matter of time before ski patrol opened up lift-served access to the lower slopes of Wilderness. With temperatures hovering around 0 F in the early morning we waited until late morning to head up to the mountain to take advantage of warmer temperatures. While we were on our ascent we could see that the terrain was already getting rather tracked up, and indeed a big part of that was likely because patrol dropped more ropes, and lift-served skiers were coming over from Vista. The resort did have an associate checking passes at the base of the Wilderness Lift though, so they were enforcing the need to have your pass on you, even for touring. In terms of conditions, natural coverage is quite good on the lower slopes of Wilderness, as the trail openings would suggest. I’d say the depth of the powder was about the same as what I found yesterday - a couple more inches had been added with the additional snowfall, but there was probably a similar amount of settling. The snow was slower though today due to the colder temperatures, so that knocked the flow of the turns down a bit on the low-angle terrain of lower Wilderness. Although the Timberline Uphill Route isn’t open yet down at the 1,500’ elevation, the terrain there is actually looking pretty close to being ready for non-lift-served traffic based on what we saw as we passed by. Barring any major warming events, even a moderate storm would probably get that terrain in play for touring. A few shots from today’s outing:

Over here, our point forecast similarly suggests about an inch of snow, and the BTV NWS Event Total Snowfall map suggests roughly the same. Clicking through to the Hourly Weather Forecast Graph for the point forecast, it has 0.08” of liquid equivalent, with precipitation starting around 3:00 A.M. tonight and continuing through late tomorrow night. Unfortunately the BTV NWS forecast discussion doesn’t really speak to any thoughts on potential snow accumulations because they’re more focused on getting the details right for the potential warm air intrusion. It looks like they feel the 850 mb warm nose stays well south of here; it’s not a huge deal with a minor system like this, but any time the area stays north of potential mixing is a positive for maximizing snow quality on the local slopes: Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 321 PM EST Sat Jan 8 2022 NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 321 PM EST Saturday…The main forecast challenge continues to be the strength of a warm nose around 850mb where the NAM and GFS remain steadfast in their respective thermal profile, the NAM being several degrees warmer around +5C as opposed to +1-2C on the GFS. Both agree that the warm nose won`t lift further north than central/southern Rutland/Windsor counties, but uncertainty remains on whether the dominant ptype will be sleet, freezing rain or a mix.

Ahh, great choice; we're always telling our students it's one of the best foundations for whichever medical/biomedical/biotech field people want to go into. An old biochemist I worked with out in Montana hailed it as "The queen of the sciences".

I'm a biochemistry professor, so meticulous data collection, measurement, analysis, etc. is definitely what we train to do. That's a perfect example - you using the observations/data from over here to get an idea of where things are headed in your area is literally a demonstration of the utility of accurate and consistent measurements. The fact that the various weather and climate services can use the data is of course even more impactful.

No, don’t worry. You just have to lighten up a bit and not get so aggravated with stuff – just have fun with it instead of taking things so seriously!

Yeah, Coastal always says he loves when J.Spin comes in and drops the hammer, but there are only so many opportunities, so you have to take advantage when he indicates that it’s time for a fresh one.

…said almost nobody in the entirety of the world …ever? Maybe it just sounds strange because of the way you wrote it. You probably meant to write something more straightforward like: “I’m some sort of snow-coveting weather weenie who is obsessed with amount of snow I have on the ground. I get irrationally aggravated when I fool myself into thinking I got more snow than I did from any given storm, and then I feel like less of a person when I try to compare my snow depths with surrounding locales in the region and my band of similarly snow-obsessed buddies.” Just be more precise with your language so that you don’t come off sounding like such a weirdo.

Event totals: 3.8” Snow/0.20” L.E. We’ve cleared out aside from a few clouds, so it looks like the totals above are the final values for Winter Storm Garrett here at our site, and it’s right in the 2-4” range that was in the forecast. At the tail end of the event, the flake size dropped, perhaps as the colder air moved in, and the snow density fell accordingly down to the 15 to 1 range from the 50 to 1 ratios that were present during the height of the upslope snow. Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.3 inches New Liquid: 0.02 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 15.0 Snow Density: 6.7% H2O Temperature: 0.7 F Sky: Mostly Clear Snow at the stake: 6.0 inches

Event totals: 3.5” Snow/0.18” L.E. Details from the 8:00 P.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 1.5 inches New Liquid: 0.03 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 50.0 Snow Density: 2.0% H2O Temperature: 18.0 F Sky: Light Snow (1-3 mm flakes) Snow at the stake: 6.5 inches

In terms of whether or not to wait another storm cycle, it will depend on the terrain pitch and level of variety you’re looking for. If a couple routes of green/low blue pitch with ~500 verts is enough, that terrain is good to go. Sufficient base is in place below whatever is currently falling, and the only remaining factor left on that terrain is water bars. Any water in them is frozen, and they are covered with snow, but they are not yet filled 100% up to grade with snow, so attention has be paid when approaching/crossing some of them. The Lower Turnpike trail (see the far left of the map below) is where the resort’s Wilderness Uphill Route is located, and it’s also the default descent route for folks that are just looking for a quick outing. It’s about as perfect a setup as you can get for earning turns when the snowpack is just getting going. It starts above 2,000’, it’s well protected from the wind, it’s pitch is low to prevent the scraping associated with the aggressive edging required on higher-angle terrain (folks in the Rockies would probably equate it to “Meadow Skipping”, if you’re familiar with the term), the snow is preserved well because it’s packed to a reasonable degree by skier traffic, and it literally starts right from the Bolton Valley Village for convenient access. The pitch is perfect for bottomless turns on 6”, and up to about 12” of champagne, or reasonably dry, sub 8-10% H2O powder (and ski width will play into it as well). Above those depths, or slightly lower if the snow is dense, you’ll start battling insufficient pitch for fun turns. One huge aspect of Lower Turnpike that people may not notice at first is the fact that while it’s low angle, it’s very consistent, so you’re not battling flat spots (a bigger deal for split boarders, but still a nice touch even for skiers). I remember talking with the former ski patrol director of the mountain, and he was a huge fan of Lower Turnpike indicating that it was actually one of the best trails on the mountain in that regard. For someone who is taking a first foray into skinning for turns in powder, Bolton’s Wilderness area, and specifically the Lower Turnpike trail, is just about the best place I can think of in the Northeast due to the combination of everything I mentioned above, and availability of fresh snowfall since it’s the Northern Greens. A big appeal for someone new to earning turns is the security of being in bounds, right on resort trails. So in that respect, it’s not really “backcountry” skiing, but an added plus as people advance is that one can easily access the resort’s backcountry network right next door using the same ascent route. The backcountry network begins right at the edge of the Wilderness Uphill Route shown on the map, and the details of that area are available on their backcountry network map. Just a few final notes about the Wilderness area – the pitch is roughly green to mild blue on the lower half to two-thirds of the mountain, and above that it gets up into higher blue and black pitches. The higher pitches are much more exposed to the wind, so they are easily scoured. A typical approach I use is to simply ascend as high as the snow quality allows. That’s a good approach if someone is uncomfortable with the skiing due to insufficient base. The bottom half of the Wilderness area is actually so well covered by natural snow that the resort will often open up lift accessed skiing there for skiers to connect over from Vista, long before they start running the Wilderness Chair. I’m not sure if they’re quite there yet, but they are definitely close, since I saw today that they’re starting to open natural terrain on the lower parts of Vista. With the way the snow continues to plow into the spine this evening, it’s definitely got me wondering how close they are. That’s just something to consider in terms of powder access because at that point, lift-served skiers will start to work their way over there as they discover it, and the powder on the lower half of Wilderness will see more traffic. If you have other questions about the setup, just let me know and I’ll be happy to help.

Yeah, at one point we had some huge flakes up to ~2” in diameter here at the house – and it’s really high-quality champagne. The 2:00 P.M. analysis was 6.2% H2O, so we’ll see what the next one says. Either way, it looks like the mountains are getting a nice shot of backside snow, and that’s on top of what we already had today. It bodes well for turns tomorrow with those upslope streamers doing their thing.

I haven’t been up to the hill since last week as I’ve been waiting for conditions to pick up, but Bolton’s morning snow report indicated 3-4” in the past 24 hours, and that seemed like enough to head up for a ski tour to check out the new snow. Since yesterday’s snow was feather-light with ratios in the 60 to 1 range based on my analyses down here at our site, I was wasn’t expecting it to contribute much in terms of building up the powder depths. I’m sure the depths I found today were bolstered by some of the additional smaller events we’ve seen in the past week, but whatever the case, the combination of those events, yesterday’s snow, and now the addition from Winter Storm Garrett has been substantial. Right off the bat I was finding 4-5” of surface snow at 2,000’ and up at 3,000’ it was 6-7”. The powder wasn’t just fluff either – there was a good deal of substance to it and a great right-side-up gradient with the current upslope snow falling. I was on midfats today, and powder turns were easily bottomless on low and moderate angle terrain that was untracked/unscoured. This past week, and especially these past couple of storms, have been an absolute game-changer for the Wilderness terrain up at the resort. The skiing was nice enough that I decided to stick around to check out the lift-served terrain as well. The past week and the most recent couple of storms have made a difference there too, because they’ve now opened some natural snow terrain, and people are definitely skiing the trees and glades on the lower mountain. I didn’t notice a huge improvement in the quality of the on-piste skiing that I sampled; it was fine, but these recent storms just haven’t delivered enough liquid equivalent to provide a real resurfacing for lift-served levels of skier traffic. There was more good news in terms of the current weather, because there was plenty of snow coming down while I was there. At 2,000’ the snowfall rate was moderate, and it was definitely heavy when I was up around 3,000’ on the Wilderness Summit. Snowfall rates above 2,000’ were notably heavier than what we’ve had down here at the house, and if it keeps up like that for a bit this evening, conditions should move even another notch up tomorrow. A few shots from the mountain today:

Event totals: 2.0” Snow/0.15” L.E. Details from the 2:00 P.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 1.3 inches New Liquid: 0.08 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 16.3 Snow Density: 6.2 % H2O Temperature: 26.8 F Sky: Light Snow (2-10 mm flakes) Snow at the stake: 5.5 inches

Event totals: 0.7” Snow/0.07” L.E. Winter Storm Garrett started up early this morning in our area, and this was one of those situations where you could easily miss out on the break point between this system and the previous one. The lull in snowfall between events was relatively short and took place overnight - my final observations from the previous event were at midnight, and this storm was already underway for this morning’s observations. Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.7 inches New Liquid: 0.07 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 10.0 Snow Density: 10.0 % H2O Temperature: 24.4 F Sky: Light Snow (1-5 mm flakes) Snow at the stake: 4.5 inches

Event totals: 2.2” Snow/0.03” L.E. Details from the 12:00 A.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.6 inches New Liquid: 0.01 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 60.0 Snow Density: 1.7% H2O Temperature: 25.3 F Sky: Cloudy Snow at the stake: 4.5 inches

Event totals: 1.6” Snow/0.02” L.E. Details from the 6:00 P.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 1.3 inches New Liquid: 0.02 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 65.0 Snow Density: 1.5% H2O Temperature: 28.6 F Sky: Light Snow (4-15 mm flakes) Snow at the stake: 4.5 inches

I’m planning to run the next liquid analysis at 6:00 P.M., so we’ll see what kind of ratios we’re getting. I think this round of snow is substantial enough that I’ll be able to get measurable liquid vs. the earlier rounds today that were sub 0.01” and thus just a trace.

Yeah it’s felt a bit more like getting back to reality with all the snow in the air today and the snowpack getting a fresh covering. Around here in the Winooski Valley at least, the snowfall has certainly been the most intense over the past hour or so with some 28 db echoes showing up:

We picked up another tenth of an inch of snow this morning after observations time, and it’s been generally quiet for a while, but there’s just now been a resurgence of flakes with some new echoes on the radar. The regional radar certainly shows moisture streaming off Lake Ontario in this direction, so the additional flakes may be from that event progressing. Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 916 AM EST Thu Jan 6 2022 .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 914 AM EST Thursday...Better late than never! The lake effect snow off of Lake Ontario took a bit longer than was initially thought but is now going in full force. Webcams from Potsdam down to Star Lake and Edwards show light snow falling with radar returns filling in across northern New York. There is likely some virga out there this morning, especially as you head into Vermont, with a dry pocket in the low levels but the forecast across southern St. Lawrence looks to be in good shape at this time. We will continue to watch for streamers off Lake Ontario and make adjustments to snowfall totals as needed.

It’s always hard to know what translates over to the mountains of NNH, but what they’ve got in the BTV NWS forecast discussion sounds quite reasonable as usual: Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 916 AM EST Thu Jan 6 2022 .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... …snow will linger along the Green Mountains late Friday, resulting in total snow accumulations up to 4 inches for locations above 1500 ft. I’m currently seeing something in the range 2-4” in the point forecast here at our site, and 3-6” for the high elevations along the spine. The numbers are in range of 0.3”-0.4” of liquid along the spine of the Northern Greens through Saturday on many of the models. That could certainly produce 3-6” if ratios were high as PF mentioned.

Man, what’s all the griping been about in the forum threads then? I swear I keep hearing people from SNE saying they haven’t had a good season in something like 3 or 4 seasons, but perhaps that’s just a vocal minority. I don’t really hear as much about Mid-Atlantic snowfall, so I can’t say for that area, but I just heard on TWC that the snow D.C. just had was the biggest in a couple of years, so it seemed like things had been pretty lean. You know, now that I think of it, I do recall hearing about places in New Jersey or thereabouts that had a really good stretch at some point last year, but one would think it didn’t extend much into SNE the way they’ve seemed to be griping? Or maybe it was just weenie unrealistic expectations and such. The thing is, you probably still had more than double the season snowfall of anyone south of you last season, so there’s that perspective to think about as well.