J.Spin

Based on the conversation here, and what I saw on my trip to BTV today, it sounds like the spine westward did better on the back side snow vs. the east side. I guess it wasn’t so much a Froude Number phenomenon, but just where the cold air caught up with the moisture, consistent with the projected snowfall map from the BTV NWS. In line with what Froude reported above, I think modest terrain on the west side should be nice, especially if we get additional snow from this next system. We’ve actually had about 0.20” of L.E. thus far in the back side snows, so I’m looking forward to a bit of low angle touring depending on how this next storm goes.

Event totals: 2.5” Snow/1.21” L.E. The snow tapered off this afternoon, so the above totals should be the final numbers from Winter Storm Miles here at our site. Details from the 6:00 P.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 1.6 inches New Liquid: 0.03 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 53.3 Snow Density: 3.3% H2O Temperature: 12.7 F Sky: Partly Cloudy Snow at the stake: 10.5 inches

Between the current storm and that one, you’ll definitely get at least a couple of inches. We’re just about hitting that down here in the valley already, and this is just part of the first storm. I’m sure the mountains are getting hit with lots of wind, but PF will probably do an accumulations check at some point today. Although this doesn’t look like a huge period of upslope on the back side of this current system, there’s still some moisture upstream on the radar, so we can expect at least a little more accumulation.

Event totals: 0.9” Snow/1.18” L.E. At some point the precipitation changed fully over to snow last night because it was snowing this morning at observations time, with 0.9 inches down on the boards. The name given to this system is Winter Storm Miles, and it’s producing at least a bit of backside snow. We’ve had some solid periods of upslope flakes even down here in the valley, and the Bolton Valley Main Base Live Cam at ~2,150’ shows some heavy snowfall. The local radar indicates there’s still a bit of moisture upstream as well. Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.9 inches New Liquid: 0.17 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 5.3 Snow Density: 18.9% H2O Temperature: 21.0 F Sky: Light Snow (3-12 mm flakes) Snow at the stake: 10.0 inches

That seems to be the way a lot of people use it, but the term just doesn’t make sense that way – if the storm “cuts” to the east of their area, nobody calls it a “cutter”. If a storm “cuts” through the central Great Lakes, it’s east of some places, like Chicago, but west of a place like Buffalo – so the same storm would be a “cutter” for Buffalo, but not for Chicago. A basis as Coastal indicated, with the term stemming from a fixed geographical area is the most logical, in that it’s based on a storm having a surface low track that “cuts” through the Great Lakes.

Thanks, that’s helpful, and I think I’ve heard the origin in passing before (such as the full expression “Great Lakes Cutter”), but the Great Lakes part is almost always left out, so just seeing “cutter” 99% of the time, the relevance of the term seems to get lost. But why are we so special? A storm that puts Buffalo, or Cleveland, or Chicago right in the meat of the warm sector would typically “cut” through a different part of the lakes, and if a storm passes far enough to the west, it starts to become irrelevant here. And, people have been referring to this current storm as a “cutter” for a week or two, and the surface low isn’t even moving through the Great Lakes – it’s passing east of all the lakes and right through New England. The way people use the term, one gets the feeling that it’s just applied to any storm in which the warm sector hits their area of interest, so maybe there’s some inconsistency in use that adds to the confusion.

As Alex mentioned above, people often make a bigger deal out of these events than is warranted. Because NNE is so wintry, there may be this perception that it’s sub-freezing with snow as the only type of precipitation from November through April, but of course we know that’s not actually the case. I’ll hear people use this term “cutter” seemingly for any system that appears to bring a storm’s warm sector… I guess to a specific location they’re concerned about or something? But it sounds like some sort of nonsensical term a weenie made up for dramatic effect. There are occasional storms that hit just right and have a dramatic effect on the snowpack, but that’s often in situations where the snowpack isn’t all that robust, or it’s some extended warm spell that goes on for days. Even way down here in the valley bottom at our site, the snowpack is quite hefty right now, with multiple inches of liquid equivalent as the NOHRSC plot shows below. And as PF’s recent analyses indicate, there’s three times that amount of liquid in the snowpack at elevation. You can see in the NOHRSC modeling for our site in the plot below that this upcoming system really isn’t expected to have a dramatic effect on the snowpack. The snowpack, especially the mountains, could probably handle more of these if that’s what happened to transpire, but of course it’s far better for the snowpack and snow sports overall if more of the systems come as snow, or at least mostly frozen. The snowpack can only hold so much water and will eventually get “ripe” as PF mentioned.

The BTV NWS has updated their advisories map in association with the upcoming system, so I’ve got that and the Event Total Snowfall map as well. I received a text indicating that we’ve been put under a Winter Weather Advisory, and that’s what covers much of the area aside from the Winter Storm Warning out in the Saint Lawrence Valley. The map has the spine of the Northern Greens in the 2-3” shading.

The latest BTV NWS forecast discussion does continue to mention the possibility with the back side of the this system, starting with a Winter Storm Watch for the Saint Lawrence Valley, but they’re starting to mention areas farther east, so they’ve certainly got their eyes on it. I'd say we’re south and east of the very best snows with this system, but most models show some snow in the area. We’ll see what the models suggest as we get closer. SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 406 AM EST Wednesday...A very complexity and challenging fcst continues to unfold with some sizable changes noted in the 00z guidance. …have issued winter storm watch for 6 or more inches of snow and some ice accumulation for the St Lawrence Valley from 00z Friday thru 15z Friday. Additional headlines are possible for other parts of NY and portions of VT in later fcst packages.

As we get closer to the potential event, nothing is as extreme as those earlier GGEM runs, but the GFS has continued to trend southward and is actually one of the snowier solutions as they all hone in on a blend as was mentioned. The combination of the back side snows from that Thursday/Friday system, plus the snows from the Saturday evening system look pretty nice on some of the models, and could set up some potential fresh snow for the weekend. Right now, the BTV NWS forecast discussion only mentions NNY in terms of the possible back side snow, but I’m sure they’ll bring the Northern Greens into their thoughts if snow possibilities increase there. Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 1017 PM EST Tue Feb 15 2022 SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 352 PM EST Tuesday...Before precipitation moves entirely out, some snow will take place across northern New York, yielding about 1-3", give or take an inch or two depending on the low track. LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 1017 PM EST Tuesday...trends in the long range data continue to support the idea of a well defined shortwave will be moving across the region on Saturday. The probabilities of snow showers continue to increase across much of the area and forecast soundings are beginning to show a greater depth of dry adiabatic lapse rates, which suggests enough instability may exist for convective snow showers or squalls. Definitely something to keep an eye on. Otherwise it does look like there may be minor accumulations of snow with this system that could result in some difficult travel conditions.

Event totals: 0.3” Snow/0.02” L.E. I’d say that’s it for this system, as it looks like the snowfall tapered off earlier today. Details from the 6:00 P.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.1 inches New Liquid: 0.01 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 10.0 Snow Density: 10.0% H2O Temperature: 4.6 F Sky: Partly Cloudy Snow at the stake: 14.0 inches The next potential system in the area is shown on some of the models tomorrow, which the BTV NWS says is due to a weak shortwave in the northwest flow.

The GFS solution does seem pretty extreme to show absolutely no snow from that system around here – it’s presumably possible, but you typically need just the right track to get absolutely zero snow with the Northern Greens orographics. It’s tough because the event is still pretty far out in time though – stepping through the 6Z ECMWF model run on Tropical Tidbits, I couldn’t even get to the point where that low reaches this area because it’s past 90 hours. It would seem prudent to take some sort of blend of the models you showed, and I see that’s what the BTV NWS mentions in their forecast discussion. They didn’t use the GGEM in the package, perhaps because it was the most extreme in terms of colder track, but they talk about their blend below. It’s definitely a possible upcoming system to watch – they finish their discussion segment indicating that the system holds the potential for several inches of snow on the backside on Friday: Thursday night developing sfc low pres wl track from the MS River Valley toward the eastern Great Lakes, while a sharpening cold frnt slowly sags southward toward the SLV. Guidance is still all over the place with regards to position of this very sharp boundary, where progged 925mb temps range from -12C to +6C in a span of <100 miles. The GEM solution is still the coldest and not used for this package, while GFS is the warmest and most delayed in pushing the colder air south and the ECMWF is sort of the middle ground. For example at 06z Friday, GFS shows 925mb temps near 10C at BTV, while GEM has -9C, and the ECMWF is near 0C. For this package have utilized a blend btwn previous fcst and latest NMB guidance, to show rain changing to snow from nw to se acrs our cwa btwn 03z-12z Friday, as temps fall from the mid 40s to mid 50s into the upper teens to mid 20s by 12z Fri. Whenever we have shallow low level cold air, undercutting warm air aloft, the potential for mixed precip, including sleet and freezing rain wl be possible during the transition period on Thurs night. These rapidly falling temperatures with precip occurring wl create a setup favorable for a flash freeze, which could result in a slick Friday morning commute. Several inches of snowfall is possible on the backside of low pres early Friday morning acrs our fa.

Event totals: 0.2” Snow/0.01” L.E. I didn’t know we we’d be getting new snow this morning, but I woke up to find light snow falling and a fresh coating of white over everything. The BTV NWS indicates that it’s from a sharp upper-level trough swinging through the area. Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.2 inches New Liquid: 0.01 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 20.0 Snow Density: 5.0% H2O Temperature: 3.9 F Sky: Light Snow (1-2 mm flakes) Snow at the stake: 14.0 inches

Today was clearly the day to be out there this weekend. We headed up to Bolton in the late morning period for a session, and I was unsure if we were going to be dealing with spring conditions, or who knows what. It turned out to be one of those Colorado/continental climate types of days, where even temperatures up around 40 F don’t really wet the snow because of the low humidity. It’s really hard to overstate what a game changer Winter Storm Landon was around here for the lower elevation slopes. That’s probably 2” of L.E. that wouldn’t be out there right now, and I doubt we’d be skiing the natural terrain down to 1,500’ without that shot. Today was great with flakes in the air even with sunshine, and we got to watch the snow squalls breaking out everywhere in the ‘dacks with the approach of the clipper system.

Event totals: 0.2” Snow/0.01” L.E. We actually started seeing flakes associated with the current clipper this morning when we were out on the mountain, and the squalls going on across the lake in the Adirondacks made for some impressive views, but it wasn’t until later this afternoon that we started to pick up accumulation down here in the valley Details from the 6:00 P.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.2 inches New Liquid: 0.01 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 20.0 Snow Density: 5.0% H2O Temperature: 28.9 F Sky: Light Snow (1-3 mm flakes) Snow at the stake: 14.0 inches

Event totals: 0.2” Snow/0.07” L.E. There was 0.2” of new snow on the boards this morning that came from the current clipper system passing well north of the area. The BTV NWS forecast discussion suggests that this was the tail end of this clipper, and we’ll have a brief dry spell before the effects of the next clipper show up tonight into tomorrow. Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.2 inches New Liquid: 0.03 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 6.7 Snow Density: 15.0% H2O Temperature: 32.5 F Sky: Mostly Cloudy Snow at the stake: 18.0 inches

Event totals: 0.3” Snow/0.02” L.E. I found 0.3” of new snow on the boards this morning with ongoing light snowfall activity. There was some additional accumulation this morning that I’ll roll into the next round of observations. Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.3 inches New Liquid: 0.02 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 15.0 Snow Density: 6.7% H2O Temperature: 31.5 F Sky: Light Snow (1-3 mm flakes) Snow at the stake: 22.0 inches

Temperatures definitely warmed up yesterday relative to Saturday, so my wife and I headed out to the hill for an afternoon session. We spent our time at Timberline, since it’s only been open for about a week, and it allowed us to check out some of our favorite areas for the first time this season. Conditions continue to be excellent, although the trails are getting pretty tracked up at this point, so we had to head a bit farther off piste for fresh tracks. In line with the observations from my tour on Saturday, we found powder depths at around 20 inches, even down to the 1,500’ – 2,000’ elevation range. We were hoping for some afternoon sun, but we only had it very briefly before clouds moved in from the west and the light got flat. This made the action photography more challenging, but we still managed to get in some good sequences. It was a good ending to the weekend that Mother Nature really turned into quite an extended weekend – many school’s like my younger son’s had a four-day weekend with both Thursday and Friday off due to the storm.

With yesterday’s highs expected to be in the single digits F at elevation, touring seemed like the far better ski option, so I hit the Bolton Valley Nordic & Backcountry Network and can provide some snow updates and pics. I toured in the 2,000’ – 2,500’ range yesterday, and I’d say total snowpack depths at those elevations are in the 2 to 3 foot range. In terms of surface snow, we’ve got enough different layers in the snowpack now, and they’re blending together enough, that it’s getting a bit tricky to actually decide what constitutes surface and subsurface snow/base. If you’re very delicate with your measuring, you can find a bit of a dense layer about 16 inches down. I think it’s safe to say that top section of the snowpack is the settled powder from Winter Storm Landon. The dense layer below that is presumably some denser precipitation, perhaps from the start of the storm when temperatures were coming down and there was a mix of rain and snow. Based on PF’s observations from Thursday, it doesn’t sound like there was too much rain at elevation, and since that layer is rather subtle, that would argue for that and/or a very good transition/blending with the drier snow above. Past that denser band, you’re into another 6 to 8 inches of powder before you hit something more solid that can really serve as a potential base. That’s typically where I’d find my poles could finally gain purchase, and it sounds like that’s similar over at Bretton Woods based on Alex’s comment yesterday here in the thread. Having backcountry baskets would probably help a little bit in that regard. There are a couple of other dense bands down in the snow there that I could detect when probing carefully, but I’d say the solid base is down there in the 22 to 24-inch range for those low to mid elevations, and I’ve got a shot of my pole hitting that approximate depth below. So if you’re first on an ascent and breaking in the skin track, plan on a good workout. Thankfully, most of the route for my tour had seen some previous traffic, and I only had to break one section with perhaps 100’ of vertical, but it was a good deal of extra work. Right now in terms of the backcountry skiing around here, I’d argue that you really need black pitches or greater to have a reasonable descent without getting too bogged down or simply having to straight-line it too much. I was on 115 mm skis that I’d just waxed, and I still had to seek out those pitches if the snow was untracked. As long as you get the right pitch though, the powder skiing is excellent as one would imagine.

Event totals: 16.4” Snow/1.70” L.E. The skies are really starting to clear out, so this morning’s snow might represent the final accumulations for Winter Storm Landon. It’s interesting how close this storm’s total has come to Winter Storm Izzy from a couple of weeks back, which ended with 16.5”. So this storm is just a tenth of an inch behind at this point. Details from the 12:00 P.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.2 inches New Liquid: 0.01 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 20.0 Snow Density: 5.0% H2O Temperature: 16.2 F Sky: Partly Cloudy Snow at the stake: 25.0 inches

I bet you did – he’s been working on Smugg’s and Jay Peak in the past week or so, but he has to go back to both of those I believe because of terrain/lift closures or other timing issues that didn’t let him get everything he needed. He also said he has to get back down to Okemo because they’ve got some new lifts that weren’t there previously and they need to update their review.

A number of us were up at Bolton yesterday to catch the snow from Winter Storm Landon, so I’ll pass along some images and snow updates. Hearing about this storm being focused on NNE, our friend Dave came up from Boston for a visit and the usual local ski country food and lodging. It’s been a couple of years since he’s been able to visit for one of these trips, but his schedule lined up well for this one. He actually skied Killington on Thursday and said that he almost bailed when he arrived in the morning to find it raining. Thankfully, he found that it was much more wintry up high on the mountain, and the conditions just got better as the day went on. There were no concerns about rain for Friday at Bolton though; everyone in the north was over to 100% snow by that point, so the only things to wonder about were snow density and snow accumulations. Winds weren’t strong at all, so there were no wind holds, and the lifts seemed to start right up at their planned times aside from the usual smaller delays of getting the later lifts rolling on a storm day. It was chilly out there on the mountain, with temperatures probably in the 10 F range. The new snow was undoubtedly a solid resurfacing of the entire mountain at all elevations. We’d picked up 1.40 of liquid equivalent down at our house by the morning, so the mountain would have had at least that much. The snow had started out quite dense at the very initial stages of the storm as temperatures were still coming down, and then it seemed to settle down to roughly medium-weight powder for the bulk of the overnight accumulations. My 6:00 A.M. analyses revealed snow density at 9.4% H2O, which is solidly in that medium-weight powder category. There hadn’t really been any fluff at that point to set up an impressively right-side-up powder accumulation, so you were generally riding in that medium weight snow, and we found the best skiing on steeper terrain. Low angle slopes were just a bit on the slow side with the available snow density. Thankfully, with that 1 to 2 inches of liquid equivalent down, it was game on for even the steepest terrain, and steep areas that we hit such as Vermont 200, the Spell Binder headwall, and the Tattle Tale headwall all delivered. You could attack those pitches as aggressively as you wanted, without concern. Another great example of the resurfacing was hitting Cobrass on our second run to find that even the usual ledges and ice bulges were covered. Initially, I’d gone in with the usual strategy of negotiating those obstacles, but quickly saw that they were irrelevant, and I was able to ski like they weren’t even there. That’s the sign of a solid resurfacing. With depth checks, I was generally finding settled accumulations of about a foot at that stage of the storm, which I think was right in line with what the resort had noted in their morning report. We actually skied with an associate from PeakRankings.com who was getting info for his report on Bolton Valley, so we showed him around for a few runs. His ski jacket has something like “WE RANK PEAKS” written in huge letters on the back, which quickly gets your attention and lets you know what he’s up to. I had to head out around midday, but Dave and my wife did catch up with our younger son and his friends out on the mountain for some skiing. I have to give the boys a hard time for not getting out right at the start of the morning, but one of my son’s friends did pull off a classic dual resort move to really maximize a powder day. He headed to Stowe first thing for the typical “hour of power”, where you can get some good fresh runs before it’s all tracked up and the lift queues grow, and then he headed to low-key Bolton where you can enjoy powder for the rest of the day in peace. I’d say he’s wise beyond his years.

With the overnight snows, there were some additions to the storm reports for the Vermont ski areas, so I’ve got the updated north to south list below. MRG seems to buck the north to south trend the most with their update to 23”, but they specifically state it in their snow report as their upper mountain storm total (“…tacking on another 1-2″ from last night brings the storm total to 18-23″ since Thursday.”), so that’s the current value in the list. Jay Peak: 26” Smuggler’s Notch: 22” Stowe: 17” Bolton Valley: 18” Mad River Glen: 23” Sugarbush: 18” Middlebury: 15” Pico: 17” Killington: 17” Okemo: 14” Bromley: 8” Magic Mountain: 5” Stratton: 3” Mount Snow: 1”

Event totals: 16.2” Snow/1.69” L.E. We’ve still got some light snow falling out there, so I guess this system isn’t quite finished yet. Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.7 inches New Liquid: 0.02 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 35.0 Snow Density: 2.9% H2O Temperature: 9.5 F Sky: Light Snow (1-2 mm flakes) Snow at the stake: 25.0 inches

Below is the north to south listing of available snowfall totals from the Vermont ski areas that have been posted thus far for Winter Storm Landon. It looks like storm totals dropped off rather precipitously south of Killington, which would suggest that somewhere at that latitude was the point where mixed precipitation was more prevalent. Mount Snow was apparently far enough south that they hadn’t received any snow as of their most recent report, so that’s quite the differential from the north end to the south end of the state for totals from this storm. Jay Peak: 21” Smuggler’s Notch: 19” Stowe: 16” Bolton Valley: 16” Mad River Glen: 16” Sugarbush: 16” Middlebury: 15” Pico: 17” Killington: 17” Okemo: 6” Bromley: 2” Magic Mountain: 4” Stratton: 3” Mount Snow: 0”