J.Spin

The Bolton Valley Village is up above 2,000’, so I’d estimate annual snowfall at 200”+ based off of what they report for annual snowfall from the summit. One way to get an estimate of snowfall at some intermediate elevations would be to make use of the numbers we actually have and do some simple linear interpolation. The most precise numbers I’ve got would be the 154.0” mean annual snowfall from the 16 seasons of data I have from my site at 495’, and the 312” annual snowfall I’ve seen reported by Bolton Valley. That’s presumably at the Bolton Valley summit elevations, so we’ll call that 3,150’. Linear interpolation off those numbers with elevation as the independent variable and snowfall as the dependent variable uses the equation y=0.0595x + 124.54, and with that you can just plug in any elevation you want for x, and it will spit out an annual snowfall as y. There are of course some potential caveats with a method like this, since my observations site is along the Green Mountain Spine, but just slightly east of it, the Bolton Valley Village is at elevation, but slightly on the west of the spine, and the Bolton Valley summit areas are literally on the spine. The method also assumes a linear relationship between elevation and snowfall over all those elevations, which may not be the case with all the factors like summit areas being scoured, snow transport, leeward areas accumulating more snow, etc., but it’s probably close enough for some estimates. One can even extrapolate with the equation, which is always dangerous as well, but there’s no specific reason to assume the trend wouldn’t hold. I added a couple of extrapolations in the list below, but the calculated numbers are of course all going to be approximations. Anyway, here are some annual snowfall estimates for some spots in the Bolton Valley area using the equation, rounded to the nearest foot: Base of Bolton Valley Access Road (340’): 145” J.Spin’s observations plot (495’): 154” Timberline Base (1,500’): 214” Bolton Valley Village (2,100'): 249” Base of main mountain lifts (2,150’): 252” Top of Bolton Valley Village (2,300’): 261” Bolton Valley Summit (3,150’): 312” Ricker Mountain Summit (3,400’): 327” Bolton Mountain Summit (3,700’): 345”

Thanks for all the updates PF – based on the way the snow was starting to break up on Main Street, I’ll probably be checking out the Mansfield side for my next Stowe outing. Today I actually headed to Bolton for turns, since it might be the last weekend for practical/productive touring there. Based on what I saw on my last Bolton outing a couple weeks ago, I figured the lower mountain would be discontinuous at this point, but the amount of snow on Spillway was obviously going to last a while. I decided to hike today vs. skinning, and I think that was the right call. The bottom half of the mountain has some decent areas of snow, but it’s discontinuous enough with plenty of dry ground for walking, that hiking is the more practical option. Above Mid Mountain, one could skin up Spillway, but that’s really steep, and they’ve plowed Sherman’s Pass most of the way to the Vista Summit, so I used that for a lot of my ascent today. The snow on Spillway is still continuous, and it was skiing great. There must have been some productive freeze/thaw cycles recently, because it was the best corn snow I’ve skied during this April/May period. Spillway is quite steep, so you get some of those nice fall-way turns, which are so much fun in good snow. At Mid Mountain on my way up I met a couple that was on their way down. They said that “Spillway was about as frosty as it’s been in a while”, and they weren’t kidding. It’s fun traveling around the area right now and taking in the views as spring begins to make its presence known. You can see that greenery is appearing in the lower mountain valleys, and it’s just starting to make its slow creep up the mountainsides. A few shots from today:

Over at Spruce on Sunday was really deserted when I was there in the afternoon, so here’s a quick update and a few photos: While Friday turned out to be a bit too cool and breezy to really soften up the slopes around here, and Saturday didn’t seem much better, Sunday saw more warmth and sunshine as the forecast had suggested. Mother Nature wasn’t messing around at that point, with temperatures moving up into the 60s F, a cloudless sky, and the disappearance of those persistent winds. There was no question about whether or not the snow was going to soften up today, so I decided to head to Stowe for some afternoon turns. I hadn’t been to the general Stowe area in a while, but the usual views of Mansfield started to appear as I headed through Waterbury Center, and the alpine terrain was certainly lit up in the May sunshine. I’d hoped that the south-facing terrain of Spruce Peak still had enough coverage to provide some nice uninterrupted turns, and indeed as I approached the resort I could see that the Main Street area and surrounding trails still had nearly continuous snow down the base of the Sensation Quad. With the route I took on the lower part of the mountain, I ended up hiking about 1/3 of the ascent, and then skinning the final 2/3. I was initially questioning my decision to bring skins as I navigated the lower slopes, but once I hit the point where I started skinning, it was definitely the right choice in terms of efficiency; the upper slopes of Main Street have so much snow that it would take more effort to find dry areas for easier hiking. In terms of the skiing, it was far superior to what I had experience on Friday. The warmth and sun took care of getting the spring snow into something that was definitely worthy of turns. It wasn’t perfect, because there were still some sticky areas from recent snows on terrain that hadn’t seen the sun and/or skier traffic, but those were generally avoidable by skiing the sunnier sides of the trails. With such a gorgeous day, I was surprised that I didn’t see a single other skier out there during my entire tour on Spruce. I did see two other cars when I first arrived at the MMSC Clubhouse parking lot, but they were just hikers. I saw them finishing up their hikes while I was ascending, and the entire parking lot was empty when I got back to my car. Everyone must have been skiing over at Mansfield! A few shots from the outing:

Oh, just an FYI about that most recent storm that I noticed as I was entering data from it – that was our 60th accumulating snowstorm of the season here at our site. I doubt it will contend for top spot in my records, which is 2018-2019 with 64 storms, but it’s second on the list, and still quite notable when the mean and median number of storms for a season is in the 50 to 55 range. It looks like Jay Peak also sailed past the 300” snowfall mark on the season with this last storm, so while it’s presumably going to end up below average in total snowfall, the average or near average behavior over the past couple of months has helped to keep it well ahead of some of those really poor seasons. And, checking out the Matt Parrilla plot, Mansfield snowpack is actually ahead of average now, so hopefully that sets us up for a decent May.

As it’s been for the past few days, it was quite windy yesterday in the Champlain Valley, but with partly cloudy skies providing some sun, and the temperatures getting into the 50s F, it seemed like there might be enough warmth to make the slopes worth a visit. That thought was tempered somewhat as I headed into the mountains on the way home; the skies became notably cloudier, and the temperatures felt several degrees cooler, even at valley level. At that point I was definitely questioning if there was sufficient warmth at elevation for softening the snow, but it still felt like it was worth the quick trip up to Bolton for some turns. On the way up the Bolton Valley Access Road, first signs of old snow snowpack were at ~1,400’, and first signs of the new snow left from our most recent storm appeared in the 1,800’ – 1,900’ elevation range. I’d contemplated skiing at Timberline if the snowpack was continuous enough, but it’s too broken up down at those elevations to be worth it. As expected up at the main mountain, there’s still plenty of snow for top-to-bottom turns on the main routes like Beech Seal and Spillway. Sherman’s Pass seems close to continuous, but there’s at least a break or two in the snowpack there. While the quantity of the snow is looking quite good, we’re still going to need some more warmth and temperature cycling to get the snowpack to some quality corn. Even with Bolton’s western exposure and afternoon sun, a lot of terrain still needs some rounds of softening. The combination of temperatures, which I guess were somewhere in the 40s F, and the cooling breeze that we’ve had the past few days, just isn’t enough to really soften the snowpack. Granted, I was out on the mountain in the later afternoon period when the sun angle is getting lower and temperatures are starting to drop off, but it was obvious that only areas in direct sun had seen much cycling of the snow to get to appropriate quality corn, and even those areas still need work. Heck, most of terrain above 2,000’ that was not in the direct sun, still had snow from our most recent storm earlier this week. I toured up to about 2,500’, but didn’t push above that elevation that because it was only getting cooler and windier as I ascended, and the quality of the snow just didn’t seem to be worth it. So while spring snow conditions weren’t quite there yesterday, the recent snows and good preservations we’ve been seeing do bode well as we head into the next several weeks of the season. Today’s forecast around here seems sort of similar to yesterday’s, so I wouldn’t expect primo ski conditions, but tomorrow is supposed to kick things up a notch with temperatures around 60 F and more sun. That might be enough to get some of that south-facing terrain into good shape. A couple of shots from yesterday at Bolton:

Event totals: 0.9” Snow/0.46” L.E. It was still snowing this morning, so there will be a bit more accumulation to report, but this event has brought about an inch of snow and a half inch of liquid to our site thus far. Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.6 inches New Liquid: 0.03 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 20.0 Snow Density: 5.0% H2O Temperature: 33.8 F Sky: Light Snow (1-5 mm flakes) Snow at the stake: Trace

I was just looking out toward the spine and the peaks are hidden because the cloud ceiling seems to be in the 1,500’ – 2,000’ range, but the precipitation was looking like snow, so I checked some of the mountain cams. I see there’s an inch or two of accumulation at the Sugarbush 3,900’ webcam with snow falling, and it’s even snowing down to ~2,000’ on the webcam at Bolton’s main base. So it looks like this next storm is underway.

I’m not sure I’d say this late season is all that unique specifically – it’s April being exactly like April, and I think April snowfall and number of storms thus far are probably average at best? We’re still a few inches behind average snowfall for April at our site, so it’s probably something similar for the mountains, but PF might have his April stats to know for sure. Maybe the season as a whole is a little more unique because of the way the snowpack caught back up to average at this time of year, but I’m sure similar things have happened before with the way these spring storms can drop so much liquid equivalent.

Nice – I saw that Mother Nature had caught back up to average at the stake, and I was going to post the plot if you hadn’t. That definitely bodes well for the rest of the season relative to where the snowpack was a few weeks ago. And there’s no concern about the snow from this most recent storm falling short on its contribution to the snowpack – with the density I encountered out there, it’s probably close to the density of settled season snowpack already. This storm was a really solid addition of liquid to the pack, even if it didn’t produce quite the right-side-up quality of deposition that some storms do.

I wasn’t able to get out for a ski tour on Tuesday morning, but I did have enough time to head out to Bolton later in the afternoon and check out what this most recent storm had to offer. As we know, a great feature of the March through June portion of the ski season is the long lasting daylight, and that makes late afternoon and even evening ski sessions very practical. It kept snowing right through the day on Tuesday, but it did warm up enough to melt back the earlier snow a bit, especially the lower one went in elevation. There was still a solid coating of snow in place even in the late afternoon at the base of the Bolton Valley Access Road, and here’s the storm accumulations profile I found at that point: 340’: T-1” 1,000’: 1-2” 1,500’: 3-4” 2,000’: 7-8” 2,500’: 8-10” 3,000’: 10-12” This storm was unquestionably another solid resurfacing of the snowpack at elevation. The mountains must have had at least an inch and a half of liquid equivalent as snow, and combined with the density of that snow, it was enough to resurface slopes of just about any angle, right up to the steepest of the steep. The density of the snow meant that it covered, and stayed stuck to, just about every slope out there. It’s easy for snow to be too dense to enable quality turns though, and this storm didn’t just flirt with that line, it flew way past it. Even the folks out in the west coast ranges that routinely deal with Sierra Cement and Cascade Concrete would have cried after dealing with this stuff. There are times when you’re ski touring, and you can’t quite tell what the quality of the turns is going to be like until you really rip off the skins and start your descent; this was not one of those times. Right from the start of my tour, I could tell that the skiing was going to be disastrous. On the lower half of the mountain from say 2,000’ on up to ~2,500’, the snow was super dense, with a bit of melting going on to up the density just a bit more for good measure. I held out a little hope that the quality of the snow in the higher elevations would improve, as it often does with lower temperatures producing drier snow that skis better. Ha, not this time. As I continued to ascend, the snow conditions only got worse. The snow went from something that was super dense and a bit wet, that you really didn’t sink into much… to an even worse version of that. As temperatures dipped below freezing on the upper mountain, the top couple of inches of snow has become a solid mass to produce the most horrible, upside-down snowpack you could imagine. The skiing was challenging, dangerous, disgusting, and everything in between. So the snowfall from this storm was indeed a great resurfacing, and a solid addition to the mountain snowpack, but it would have taken another good half foot or so of drier snow to really get the immediate quality of the ski surfaces up to snuff. It was snowing while I was out there on Tuesday, with some nice steady snow at times, but there was probably only another inch or two of additional snow above the dense stuff, so not enough to really bring up the snow quality to something more respectable. Every spring snowstorm is different though, and that’s part of the fun of experiencing them, and we’ll just have to see what the next one does. A few shots from Tuesday:

Event totals: 1.1” Snow/1.38” L.E. We had a few flakes flying at the house this morning that will call for another trace in tomorrow morning’s CoCoRaHS report, but the totals above should be it for this event at our site. I’m seeing plenty of storm totals around here in the 1.5” range for liquid equivalent, so you know the mountains picked up at least that much. That’s certainly a solid resurfacing for the slopes, and I’ll pass along some mountain observations as soon as I get a chance to write those up. Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.2 inches New Liquid: 0.12 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 1.7 Snow Density: 60.0% H2O Temperature: 36.0 F Sky: Cloudy Snow at the stake: Trace

Event totals: 0.9” Snow/1.09” L.E. This morning’s snow at our site was impressively dense – there was more than half an inch of liquid in just an inch of snow. Lifting the snowboards to clear them this morning was a monumental effort. We’d already had more than an inch of liquid equivalent from this storm as of this morning’s early report, and I haven’t been up to the slopes yet, but it must have been an almost instant resurfacing with the amount of liquid equivalent that has come through the area thus far. Power is out in a lot of places due to the dense snow, and Bolton’s main base webcam is down for presumably that reason. It looks like there’s about a half foot of new snow on the Stowe snow stake webcam though. Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.9 inches New Liquid: 0.58 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 1.6 Snow Density: 64.4% H2O Temperature: 32.7 F Sky: Snow (2 – 10 mm flakes) Snow at the stake: 1.0 inches

After Saturday’s fresh powder out on the hill, I hadn’t really planned to ski on Sunday, since the forecast called for gray skies and temperatures heading above the freezing mark. We were thiking we might have left one of our water bottles up around 2,800’ on Wilderness during our tour on Saturday though, so that was incentive enough to get me out for another go. If in doubt, it’s generally good to get out and get some exercise anyway. I made my way up to Bolton around midday, and whereas temperatures on Saturday were in the upper 20s F when we’d arrived, on Sunday they were in the upper 30s F. Some of the new Friday/Saturday snow had definitely melted back, and that effect decreased with elevation, but the freezing line was still somewhere above the 3,000’ mark. So, I never encountered any snow yesterday that had been fully preserved below freezing. With that said, the snow skied really well. On the upper mountain, the new snow had seen little settling, and untracked areas skied like dense powder vs. any sort of mush. At all elevations, even where the snow was transitioning due to the above freezing temperatures, it seemed to be doing it a subtle way. It wasn’t sticky, just dense, and perhaps that slow change was due to the cold overnight temperatures and the overcast keeping away dramatic warming from direct sunlight. In thinner areas where the new snow had melted back, the skiing typically transitioned right to the underlying corn snow, and that skied really well. It was sort of strange to move from areas of dense powder skiing, right to spring corn snow, but somehow it worked. In any event, the water bottle ended up being right where we thought it was, so that part of the tour was quite successful. A few shots I took during yesterday’s tour:

Yeah, I guess one positive way to think about it is that they have a lot of ski days under their belts, and they'll have those skills for a lifetime. My son said he had what was probably his best Telemark day ever in terms of comfort level and confidence with his turns, so they're still learning and improving, even at this age.

With the snow from this latest storm, my wife and I headed up to Bolton for a session yesterday with our older son, who is back from school on spring break. We got to the mountain reasonably early, with some concern about how the powder was going to hold up as the day warmed, but even as of midday that wasn’t a concern at elevation. It was probably in the 20s F when we arrived, and combined with the breeze, it was chilly. It was excellent touring weather, and the powder stayed cold and dry. Even at midday, the higher elevation snow was dry, although snow in the mid to lower elevations in directly sunlight was starting to be affected by the sun. The mountain was reporting 4 inches of new snow, but I’d say that was a fairly conservative report – I was finding 5-6” new at the 2,000’ elevation, and as much as 8” up above 3,000’. We started our session with a tour at Wilderness up to ~2,800’ or so. Wilderness is 100% natural snow, so the amount of base in many spots was impressive, but the usual windswept or sunny spots were lean on coverage. Those areas of lean coverage were fine for grassy and/or low angle slopes, but you wouldn’t have wanted to tackle anything steep that didn’t have existing base. I’d say the very best snow we encountered yesterday was on Alta Vista – the ridgeline and skier’s right of the headwall were windswept as usual, the protected left side of the headwall held some nice, semi-packed snow. Below that though was the real gold mine. They had groomed the skier’s left of the trail, but the skier’s right held about 8 inches of chowder that was mostly bottomless, and we couldn’t believe how good the skiing was there. We were wishing they hadn’t groomed anywhere if it could have meant the snow would have been like that. The Vista Quad was on wind hold until about midday though, so we were up on Alta Vista not too long after the lift started running, and I think that helped set up the incredible snow quality there.

Event totals: 1.9” Snow/0.79” L.E. Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.4 inches New Liquid: 0.02 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 20.0 Snow Density: 5.0% H2O Temperature: 29.5 F Sky: Partly Cloudy Snow at the stake: 1.5 inches

I just looked outside and the precipitation is all snow here at the house. I’m not sure when it changed over, but the snow level has dropped to the valley floor.

It was a busy week, but I’ve had a chance to put together a few more thoughts and shots from Monday. Based on my sessions from Sunday and Monday at Bolton, I wouldn’t put the skiing from the weekend event in the top 20% of the season’s turns, but probably into that next quintile down. It was definitely good, but even in this season, we’ve had a number of better storm cycles in terms of both total liquid equivalent, subsurface quality, and powder quality/dryness. With the continued snowfall, Monday was certainly a bump in accumulations as I noted in my earlier report, and that additional liquid equivalent was enough to bump up the resurfacing to really encompass blue and some black terrain. Monday morning was pretty cold, down in the single digits F, so I found the snow a bit slow except for the less settled/lower density areas. The more consolidated areas of powder with the finer grains or wind-based compaction were just on the slow side due to the combination of temperatures and the snow density. The biggest bump I think this most recent event gets when it comes to the overall quality of the ski experience was due to skier numbers, which were way down. I was touring in the late morning on Monday and there were only 3 or 4 tracks coming down Lower Turnpike where the Wilderness Uphill Route is located. A typical midseason day would definitely have seen more activity by that point. Sure, it was a Monday, but Sunday was sort of the same; it’s just that time of year when many people don’t have the drive to ski because it’s no winter where they are, or they’ve moved on to other activities, or whatever. That’s of course one of the reasons March and April are so great in the mountains, as your images have been showing. Anyway, I’ve got a few more shots below – the first one was a leftover from Sunday that I didn’t get to post, and the others are from Monday’s session. It is nice to see another round of snow hitting the mountains now, so maybe we’ll get a chance for more fun this weekend.

I just checked the BV webcam at 2,000’ and they’re getting some solid snowfall with accumulation down to that elevation now. I’m not sure if Mother Nature intends to keep it up at that intensity all night, but that would set up some great turns tomorrow. I’m sure those 30-40 db echoes are helping the matter.

I’ve been seeing the potential for snow on the back side of this system since the end of the last one, and there’s certainly a signal there on the models like the GFS and NAM that typically pick it up. It’s already snowing at ridgeline level based on the view from the Sugarbush 3,900’ snow stake webcam, and the snow levels are expected to drop to even the lower valleys tonight. I see the BTV NWS is thinking the potential for 3-6” above 2,500’, so we’ll certainly be watching. It could be nice timing for Saturday morning turns. Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 1014 AM EDT Fri Apr 1 2022 NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...For VT a similar type scenario will unfold, but colder air in the mid/upper slopes arrives slightly later. Expecting snow levels above 2500 feet thru 18z, supported by progged 850mb temps btwn -1C and -3C, while 925mb temps hover on either side of 0C. However, similar to NY zones, expect snow levels in VT to quickly lower by 21z, as 925mb temps drop below 0C and fall btwn -1C and -4C by 00z this evening. Total snow accumulations wl be dusting to 2 inches below 1500 feet, 2 to 4 inches 1500 to 2500 feet and 3 to 6 inches above 2500 feet in the favorable upslope regions of the central- northern Greens from Mt Allen to Mansfield to Jay Peak area.

Event totals: 3.6” Snow/0.27” L.E. Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.8 inches New Liquid: 0.03 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 26.7 Snow Density: 3.8% H2O Temperature: 17.4 F Sky: Light Snow (2-10 mm flakes) Snow at the stake: 1.5 inches

Event totals: 2.8” Snow/0.24” L.E. Details from the 6:00 P.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.2 inches New Liquid: 0.01 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 20.0 Snow Density: 5.0% H2O Temperature: 13.5 F Sky: Light Snow (1-3 mm flakes) Snow at the stake: 1.5 inches

I’ve added the north to south listing of available snowfall totals from the Vermont ski areas for the current event. The lack of notable snow at Burke would suggest that resorts off the spine have not seen much accumulation this far, but the resorts of the Northern Greens had fairly consistent reports of accumulations approaching the 1-foot mark. With Sugarbush reporting 6”, and MRG clearly not getting enough to consider opening for midweek service, it looked like a typical trend of snowfall dropping off south of the Northern Greens, but the Killington/Pico area clearly bucked that trend, so perhaps they were under a streamer or something along those lines. Jay Peak: 10” Burke: T” Smuggler’s Notch: 10” Stowe: 11” Bolton Valley: 12” Sugarbush: 6” Middlebury: T” Pico: 12” Killington: 12” Okemo: 2” Bromley: 4” Stratton: 2” Mount Snow: 1”

With the way it was pounding heavy snow when I left Bolton yesterday, and their morning report indicating a foot of snow for the storm total at that point, I figured another ski session was in order. Snow levels had dropped all the way to the valleys yesterday, but they really didn’t start picking up much accumulation until the evening. Even the valleys were coated in white this morning, so accumulations started there, and I’ve updated yesterday’s accumulations profile with the numbers I saw this morning: 340’: 0” --> 1-2” 1,000’: T --> 2” 1,200’: 1” --> 2-3” 1,500’: 2” --> 3” 2,000’: 4” --> 5” 2,500’: 5” --> 6” 3,000’: 6” 3,300’: 6”+ Today’s tour only brought me up to ~2,700’, so I can’t update those numbers from the higher elevations, but the trend between the additional snowfall and settling seemed to be to tack on another inch or two to what was present yesterday afternoon. When I first got up to the mountain this morning, I encountered blizzard like conditions due to the snowfall and wind, and the wind was certainly stronger than I saw at any point yesterday. Like yesterday, the snow would often come in pulses – you’d have light to moderate snowfall with a brightening of the sky, and then visibility would drop and you’d encounter heavy snow. At one point on today’s tour, intense snow came on so fast that visibility dropped to ~100 feet in just seconds. I was in the middle of taking some photos, and will end up having to use some of the initial exposures because part of what I was shooting about 200 feet away literally became invisible behind the snowfall, and I just had to move on. I’ll put together some images and a bit about the ski conditions as soon as I get a chance.

There was a prominent stream of moisture sitting there visible on the radar with some of those yellow 30+ db echoes. It was right down there in Addison County and upstream of Sugarbush/MRG, so I was wondering if they were getting hit, but the valley certainly got in on it based on those numbers.