J.Spin

Assuming the typical correlation between our site and the rest of the range, we’re certainly behind average pace, but not excessively so. PF can comment on where things stand for Mansfield if the usual correlation is off for any reason. November was about average for snowfall, and the first ten days of December were on that same pace, then there was a lull for a week (first plateau on the curve below) before Winter Storm Carrie came through. We’ve hit another lull since then though. Here at the house, average cumulative season snowfall for this date is 40.4”, and we’re at 33.1”, but it’s well within one S.D. (± 19.0”). We could use a bit of catching up of course, but there certainly are some systems in the modeling over the next week or two.

Event totals: 0.3” Snow/0.12” L.E. This most recent stretch was definitely a lighter period of precipitation, with just 0.01” of liquid. Details from the 6:00 P.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: Trace New Liquid: 0.01 Temperature: 30.1 F Sky: Freezing Drizzle Snow at the stake: 5.0 inches

Event totals: 0.3” Snow/0.11” L.E. Over the course of the morning we’ve seen mostly light sleet, with some freezing rain and what appear to be some small flakes as well. The accumulation on the boards was quite dense as one would imagine. Details from the 12:00 P.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.2 inches (Sleet) New Liquid: 0.10 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 2.0 Snow Density: 50.0% H2O Temperature: 29.5 F Sky: Sleet/Freezing Rain/Snow Snow at the stake: 5.0 inches

Event totals: 0.1” Snow/0.01” L.E. There was a tenth of an inch of accumulation on the boards at observations time this morning, which seemed to be a combination of sleet and some freezing rain. The precipitation since then has been a mix of sleet and freezing rain, but surprisingly, mostly sleet in the past half hour with some additional accumulation. Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.1 inches (Sleet) New Liquid: 0.01 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 10.0 Snow Density: 10.0% H2O Temperature: 24.1 F Sky: Sleet/Freezing Rain Snow at the stake: 5.0 inches

It doesn’t look like there were any major changes in the thinking since this morning, but the Winter Weather Advisories were expanded a bit to the east, and the projected snow accumulations were brought down a bit for the BTV NWS coverage area. There’s till 4-6” of snow indicated along the peaks in the Northern Greens, and we’ll just have to see how the combination of front side snow, mix, and back side snow comes together. The latest BTV NWS maps are below:

I got an alert this morning that we’ve been put under a Winter Weather Advisory for the upcoming storm. The current forecast in this area suggests the system starts as snow, then incorporates some mixed precipitation the farther west you are, and then transitions back to snow. Forecasts for accumulations in the local elevations are generally in the 3-6”, with the larger portion of that on the back side vs. the front side. It should be a nice refresher with a modest addition of liquid equivalent for the local slopes either way, but we’ll have to see how much any mixed precipitation affects the quality of the conditions. We’ll see what adjustments are done at the afternoon update, but the current BTV NWS maps for this storm are below:

Event totals: 0.1” Snow/0.01” L.E. We did pick up a bit of snow this afternoon, and the BTV NWS indicates that this wasn’t really from the coastal storm, but a weak, fast-moving wave coming through southern Canada. Details from the 6:00 P.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.1 inches New Liquid: 0.01 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 10.0 Snow Density: 10.0% H2O Temperature: 30.4 F Sky: Cloudy Snow at the stake: 6.0 inches

It’s been a busy past couple of days finishing up the semester, but we got out to the mountain on Sunday to take a few turns in the new snow from Winter Storm Carrie. For conditions, there was about a half foot of new snow reported by Bolton in their morning report, although there were probably a couple more inches on top of that with the way it was accumulating while we were there. Indeed they’re now reporting 8 inches for their weekly total, and I’d say that’s probably the storm total once the backside snows were incorporated. It was a decent resurfacing of the slopes, with 0.80” of L.E. recorded here at our place. I suspect they’re in the that ballpark for L.E. as well, although the western slopes probably were a bit lower on storm totals relative to the eastern slopes with the flow for the majority of the storm cycle. In any event, surfaces were nice, although I could see how high-angle terrain or higher traffic resorts could be down to firm surfaces pretty quickly. The overall feel at the resort was quite wintry with temperatures in the teens F, moderate snow falling, and some wind. Bolton only had their lower lifts running as they were still prepping the Vista Summit for lift-served levels of traffic, but it looks like this storm put them over the top and they’re opening the Vista Quad tomorrow. The Wilderness Uphill Route is open, so with the leftover base they had plus this new storm, there’s certainly enough snow to be skinning for turns on the natural snow terrain at Wilderness, so that’s great to have in place for the upcoming holiday period. They’ll still need another decent shot of liquid equivalent to get more terrain open for lift-served levels of traffic on natural snow terrain, and to get the lower-elevation Timberline area open for ski touring traffic. I’m sure there are some people touring down at the Timberline elevations, but the Timberline Uphill Route isn’t officially open yet. I think they’d lost most of the natural base snow there, so you’re working with just the accumulations from Winter Storm Carrie, and that one storm with ~3/4” of liquid equivalent isn’t quite enough to get touring into a really comfortable place. A few shots from Sunday:

Yeah, it’s not as is everyone in NVT and NNY is a snow fan, but the percentage of folks who live here because of the snow, combined with those who simply accept it as a fact of life in the far north, is probably much higher than what you’d find in the big cities of the megalopolis. Sure, there are weenie types in the big cities, many folks like a good snowstorm, and those absolute numbers are probably going to be larger in the big cities than here. But for most people, snow and cold in the big cities is just a headache, especially once you’re past the holidays. The BTV NWS has their general population, plus numerous major ski resorts, plus all the other winter recreation activities that go on here, plus the winter tourism, to think about. Not that many people in the general read the BTV NWS forecast discussions, but I wouldn’t be surprised if we have a larger “pro-snow” population in general than many areas. In the mountain/resort communities at least, a relatively high percentage of snow fans has got to be a slam dunk.

There was only a trace of snow at observations time this morning, but now the snowfall has picked up and we’re starting to get some measurable accumulation from this current system. The BTV NWS forecast discussion indicates that it’s a cold front coming through.

For the Northern Greens, I’ve found that Bolton or Smugg’s can pick up more in a storm than Stowe if there’s a very west side-favored event, since they’re the resorts on the more western side of the spine around here. For the MRV portion of the Central Greens, one typically doesn’t see MRG outpace Sugarbush in many events – they really both do sit on the same (eastern) side of the spine, pretty much lined up next to each other. With the extra 400’ of elevation, occasionally one sees a bit of snowfall preference in the reverse direction, but it’s probably more a function of snow measurement timing/methodology in many cases.

Event totals: 9.3” Snow/0.80” L.E. After another 0.4” overnight, we’ve mostly cleared out now, so I’d say this system is complete and the above values are the final numbers at our site for Winter Storm Carrie. Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.4 inches New Liquid: Trace Temperature: 4.1 F Sky: Partly Cloudy Snow at the stake: 7.5 inches

Event totals: 8.9” Snow/0.80” L.E. Details from the 12:00 A.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.7 inches New Liquid: 0.01 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 70.0 Snow Density: 1.4% H2O Temperature: 14.4 F Sky: Light Snow (2-15 mm flakes) Snow at the stake: 8.0 inches

I’ve got the north to south listing of available snowfall totals from the Vermont ski areas for Winter Storm Carrie thus far. Based on the reports, there certainly seemed to be a bit of a local accumulations peak in the Middlebury-Killington stretch Jay Peak: 9” Burke: 7” Smuggler’s Notch: 8” Stowe: 5” Bolton Valley: 6” Sugarbush: 7” Middlebury: 8” Pico: 11” Killington: 11” Okemo: 6” Bromley: 4” Magic Mountain: 5” Stratton: 6” Mount Snow: 4”

Event totals: 8.2” Snow/0.79” L.E. Details from the 6:00 P.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.4 inches New Liquid: Trace Temperature: 20.7 F Sky: Light Snow (1-5 mm flakes) Snow at the stake: 8.0 inches

Event totals: 7.8” Snow/0.79” L.E. With this latest round of accumulation, this storm has become the largest of the season in terms of total snow, passing the Nov 25th storm. Details from the 12:00 P.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.7 inches New Liquid: 0.02 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 35.0 Snow Density: 2.9% H2O Temperature: 25.5 F Sky: Light Snow (2-10 mm flakes) Snow at the stake: 8.0 inches

Event totals: 7.1” Snow/0.77” L.E. Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.8 inches New Liquid: 0.08 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 10.0 Snow Density: 10.0% H2O Temperature: 22.6 F Sky: Snow (1-4 mm flakes) Snow at the stake: 7.0 inches

Event totals: 6.3” Snow/0.69” L.E. Details from the 12:00 A.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 3.7 inches New Liquid: 0.41 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 9.0 Snow Density: 11.1% H2O Temperature: 28.6 F Sky: Snow (2-15 mm flakes) Snow at the stake: 6.5 inches

There were some substantial changes in the maps for the afternoon update from the BTV NWS – the Winter Storm Warnings were expanded even into the Champlain Valley, and the projected accumulations were bumped. They talked about the reasoning in the afternoon update: Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 431 PM EST Sat Dec 18 2021 NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 431 PM EST Saturday...Winter storm warnings have been expanded and are now in effect for most of the North Country based on 12 hour snowfall in excess of 6 inches in most locations. No big changes from our previous thinking as the ongoing snowfall has generally played out as expected. However, as the event has begun we are seeing ground truth and latest model data support generally higher snowfall amounts than previously forecast. In particular, the High Resolution Ensemble Forecast one hourly precipitation rate has performed well, showing areas of >0.05" liquid spreading across much of our area this afternoon. As a result, expect hourly snowfall rates of 0.5 to 1 inch will persist for several hours, tending to shift towards eastern Vermont, before tapering off towards 2 AM.

Event totals: 2.6” Snow/0.28” L.E. The 6:00 P.M. liquid analysis is in, and it reveals a snow density just a bit above 10% H2O, which is not nearly as dense as some of these events can produce. The point forecast here called for 2-4” today, so the accumulation thus far seems right on track with that. I think the liquid might be a bit more than expected for this period, but I’d have to look into the exact numbers. Details from the 6:00 P.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 2.6 inches New Liquid: 0.28 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 9.3 Snow Density: 10.8% H2O Temperature: 27.7 F Sky: Snow (2-4 mm flakes) Snow at the stake: 2.5 inches

There’s been a bit of an update in the BTV NWS advisories map, with some Winter Storm Warnings being implemented in the Adirondacks, but there’s also been an update in the Event Total Snowfall map; there are some changes along the spine of the Greens with the areas of 8-12” shading vs. yesterday’s update. Our point forecast got a bump to near the 6-12” range. I didn’t pick anything out of the BTV NWS AFD that really detailed why there were some increases, but it may be because of the reduced dry slot issues they spoke about yesterday, or they did their usual last minute tweaks as the most recent modeling suggests. Our projected L.E. went up a bit to 0.70”, but that would still argue for the lower end of that range unless ratios are relatively large. I guess we’ll see what type of flakes we get. The most recent BTV NWS maps for the storm are below:

Flakes started up here at our site right around noon. It seemed like snow was on its way though, because Camel’s Hump had disappeared into the snow quite a while ago.

I got an alert that we’d been put under a Winter Storm Warning as well – it looks like that’s the alert level for everything east of the spine of the Greens. The latest BTV NWS maps are below. Our point forecast through Sunday is ~0.65” of liquid with a call for near the 6-10” range in snow. If the snow is dense as it can often be with these types of systems, we can certainly hedge toward the lower part of that range, but we’ll see how it plays out. I certainly plan to run liquid analyses as usual to see what the ratios are.

I saw this in this morning’s BTV NWS AFD, and you certainly can’t knock the enthusiasm! Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 139 PM EST Fri Dec 17 2021 SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 355 AM EST Friday...Overall no major changes to the forecast we`ve been highlighting for the weekend, but signals are now pointing towards an all snow event with no mix for once. Models are in good agreement showing low pressure tracking west to east along a stalled frontal boundary over the Mid-Atlantic states Saturday afternoon to east of Cape Cod Saturday night. Where previous guidance indicated a 850-700mb dry slot working into central/southern portions of the forecast area Saturday night, that now appears to stay south of the region which will keep the DGZ saturated throughout the storm. Hence, we`re finally looking at an all snow event with no mix, yay!

I had my phone with me last night because we’d lost power with the winds, and early this morning I got a text that we had a Winter Storm Watch in place. Checking the BTV NWS point forecast for our site, it calls for something in the 4-8” range with this next system. If this is a SWFE type system, I usually find that the lower end of that might be more in the range of the accumulations we actually see, since the forecast L.E. may be a good estimate, but flake size tends toward the smaller end. This makes for denser accumulations, which can be great for the base. I’ve added the latest BTV NWS maps below.